Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis For San Francisco .

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C O M P R E H E N S I V EH O U S I N GM A R K E TA N A L Y S I SSan Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael,CaliforniaU.S. Department of Housing and Urban DevelopmentOffice of Policy Development and ResearchAs of January 1, 2016SummaryHousing Market AreaSonomaNapaSolanoMarinContra CostaSan FranciscoAlamedaoatenMSaPacific OceanSanta ClaraSanta CruzThe San Francisco-San Mateo-San RafaelHousing Market Area (hereafter, the SanFrancisco HMA) consists of two metropolitan divisions: (1) the San FranciscoRedwood City-South San Francisco, CAMetropolitan Division, which consists ofSan Francisco and San Mateo Counties,and (2) the San Rafael, CA MetropolitanDivision, which is coterminous with MarinCounty. The HMA is a center for thehigh-technology industry and tourism andis a regional center for government. Forpurposes of this analysis, the HMA isdivided into three submarkets: (1) the SanFrancisco County submarket, which iscoterminous with the city and county ofSan Francisco; (2) the San Mateo Countysubmarket; and (3) the Marin Countysubmarket.EconomyAfter losing jobs from 2009 through2010, the economy in the San Francisco HMA has expanded every yearsince 2011. Job growth has been ledby the professional and businessservices and the leisure and hospitality sectors. During 2015, nonfarmpayrolls increased by 48,500 jobs,or 4.3 percent, after an increase of47,000 jobs, or 4.4 percent, during2014. Nonfarm payrolls are projectedto increase by an average of 4.1percent annually during the 3-yearforecast period.Sales MarketSales housing market conditions in theHMA are very tight, with an estimatedvacancy rate of 0.8 percent, down from1.7 percent in 2010. Total home salesdecreased 5 percent, to 15,800 homessold, during 2015, and the average salesprice increased 11 percent, to 1,296,000.During the forecast period, demand isexpected for 9,900 new homes (Table 1).The 1,890 homes currently underconstruction and a portion of the19,850 other vacant units in the HMAthat may return to the market willsatisfy some of the forecast demand.Rental MarketThe rental housing market in the HMAis tight, with an estimated overallvacancy rate of 3.1 percent, down from5.2 percent in 2010 (Table DP-1). Theaverage market rent in the HMA was 2,550 during the fourth quarter of2015, an 11-percent increase from theaverage rent of 2,300 a year earlier.During the forecast period, demand isexpected for 18,625 new market-raterental units (Table 1). The 7,815 unitscurrently under construction will satisfya portion of that demand.Market DetailsEconomic Conditions. 2Population and Households. 6Housing Market Trends. 10Data Profiles. 24

2Summary ContinuedTable 1. Housing Demand in the San Francisco HMA* During the Forecast PeriodS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I SSan FranciscoHMA*San Francisco CountySubmarketSan Mateo CountySubmarketMarin otal rconstruction1,8907,8151,5505,8002401,775100240* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecastperiod. Units under construction as of January 1, 2016. A portion of the estimated 19,850 other vacant units in the HMAwill likely satisfy some of the forecast demand. The forecast period is January 1, 2016, to January 1, 2019.Source: Estimates by analystEconomic ConditionsThe economy of the SanFrancisco HMA experiencedtwo separate periods of substantial joblosses during the 2000s, but payrollshave expanded at a rate more thantwice the national average since2010. Nonfarm payrolls in the HMAdeclined from 1,091,800 jobs in 2000to 951,900 jobs in 2004, indicatingan average annual decrease of 35,000jobs, or 3.4 percent, as a result of thebursting of the dot.com bubble. Theeconomy of the HMA relies heavilyon investment in high-technologyindustries. The amount of venturecapital (funding provided to startupcompanies in exchange for equity)invested in Silicon Valley (whichcomprises San Francisco and SanMateo Counties and the adjacentSan Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CAMetropolitan Statistical Area [MSA])decreased from 33.4 billion in 2000to 8.0 billion in 2004, a 76-percentcumulative decline (National VentureCapital Association). Thousandsof Internet-related businesses wereforced to close during this period, including Pets.com, which laid off 320employees in late 2000, and Webvan,which laid off 2,000 employees in2001. The greatest job losses occurredin the professional and businessservices sector, which includes thecomputer design and related servicesindustry; the sector declined by anaverage of 12,100 jobs annually, or5.8 percent, from 2001 through 2004.At the same time, the informationsector lost an average of 6,100 jobs, or10.6 percent, a year.From 2005 through 2008, venturecapital investments in Silicon Valleyincreased 43 percent and nonfarmpayrolls increased by an averageof 15,500 jobs, or 1.6 percent,annually. The professional andbusiness services sector led job gains,expanding by an average of 8,700jobs, or 4.5 percent, annually, andaccounted for 56 percent of nonfarmpayroll growth. Within the sector, thecomputer design and related servicesindustry expanded by an average of2,400 jobs, or 11.5 percent, a year, astechnology companies such as Twitter, Inc. (founded in 2006), and ZyngaInc. (founded in 2007) began operations in the HMA. During this period,job growth was also significant in theeducation and health services sector,

3Economic Conditions ContinuedS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I Swhich added an average of 3,300 jobs,an increase of 2.8 percent, annually.The leisure and hospitality sectorexpanded by an average of 3,200 jobs,or 2.7 percent, annually, with visitors’spending in the HMA increasing from 9.6 billion in 2005 to 12.7 billion in2008 (Visit California).Nonfarm payrolls in the HMAdeclined by an average of 29,300 jobs,or 2.9 percent, annually during 2009and 2010 as a result of the nationwideeconomic recession. Job losses weregreatest in the professional andbusiness services, financial activities,and wholesale and retail trade sectors,which declined by averages of 5,900,5,300, and 5,000 jobs, or 2.8, 6.4,and 4.2 percent, respectively. Duringthis period, an 18-percent decline inventure capital investment slowed thecreation and expansion of startupcompanies.Since 2011, the HMA has experienced a strong economic recoverydue primarily to growth in thehigh-technology industry. Nonfarmpayrolls have expanded by an averageTable 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the San FranciscoHMA,* by Sector12 Months EndingTotal nonfarm payroll jobsGoods-producing sectorsMining, logging, & constructionManufacturingService-providing sectorsWholesale & retail tradeTransportation & utilitiesInformationFinancial activitiesProfessional & business servicesEducation & health servicesLeisure & hospitalityOther 06.21.78.52.33.15.52.1* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Based on 12-month averagesthrough December 2014 and December 2015.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticsof 42,900 jobs, or 4.1 percent, ormore than double the national rateof 1.5 percent during this sameperiod. The professional and businessservices sector, which expanded byan average of 17,100 jobs, or 7.4percent, a year has led job growth.The computer systems design andrelated services industry accountedfor 41 percent of job gains in thesector during the period, as venturecapital investment increased by anaverage of 38 percent annually from2011 through 2015, to 27.3 billion(National Venture Capital Association). The increase in venture capitalfunding and tax incentives offeredby the City of San Francisco createdsignificant employment opportunitiesin the high-technology industry. Thelargest 75 high-technology employersin the City of San Francisco hiredmore than 7,000 new employeesduring 2014 and 2015 (San FranciscoBusiness Times). In addition, newstartup companies commencedoperations in the HMA, andseveral technology-oriented employers expanded or relocated theiroperations to the HMA, includingTwitter, which added approximately500 jobs in 2012, and salesforce.com,inc., which added 1,100 jobs in 2014.Job gains were also significant in theleisure and hospitality sector, whichincreased by an average of 5,700 jobs,or 4.2 percent, annually, and revenuegenerated by tourism in the SanFrancisco Bay Area (hereafter, BayArea) reached a record 26 billion in2014, a 30-percent increase from 20billion in 2010 (Visit California).Job growth continued at a strongpace during 2015, when nonfarmpayrolls expanded by 48,500 jobs,or 4.3 percent, with growth occurring in every sector (Table 2). The

Economic Conditions Continuedprofessional and business servicessector, which is the largest employmentsector in the HMA (Figure 1), addedthe most jobs, increasing by 22,400jobs, or 8.5 percent. The computersystems design and related servicesindustry increased by 10,800 jobs, or19 percent, accounting for 48 percentof job growth in the sector during2015. The leisure and hospitalitysector also expanded, adding 4,600jobs, a 3.1-percent increase. Themining, logging, and constructionsector added 1,900 jobs, a 4.5-percentincrease, because both residential andcommercial construction activity inthe HMA, particularly in downtownSan Francisco, accelerated. Investment in high-technology industriesFigure 1. Current Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the San Francisco HMA,* bySectorMining, logging, & construction 3.7%Manufacturing 3.5%Government 11.8%Other services 4.1%Wholesale & retail trade 10.9%Transportation & utilities 3.6%Leisure & hospitality 12.9%Information 5.1%Financial activities 6.8%Education & health services 13.1%Professional & business services 24.4%* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Note: Based on 12-month averages through December 2015.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsFigure 2. T rends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the San Francisco HMA,* 2000 Through 0915,000865,0002.0815,0000.0Labor force* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics15142013201220112010Resident 2000765,000Unemployment rateUnemployment rate1,165,000Labor force andresident employmentS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S4also generated the growth of 3,500jobs, a 6.2-percent increase, in theinformation sector, primarily in thesoftware and Internet publishingindustry.The unemployment rate in the HMAaveraged 3.4 percent during 2015,down from 4.3 percent during 2014and down from a peak of 8.6 percentin 2010. During 2015, the averageunemployment rate was 3.4 percentin the Marin County submarket, 3.5percent in the San Francisco Countysubmarket, and 3.3 percent in the SanMateo County submarket, the lowestunemployment rate of any county inthe state. By comparison, the statewide unemployment rate averaged 6.2percent during 2015. Figure 2 showstrends in the labor force, residentemployment, and the unemploymentrate in the HMA from 2000 through2015.Nonfarm payrolls in the HMA areexpected to expand by an average of4.1 percent annually during the 3-yearforecast period, but by a decliningrate during the second and third yearsof the forecast period. The professional and business services sectoris projected to continue to lead jobgains. Two significant expansions oftechnology firms are currently underway in the HMA: salesforce.com isexpected to hire nearly 1,000 employees in 2017 when it opens the 61-storySalesforce Tower, located near TheTransbay Terminal. Uber, a ridesharing service, announced that it will bemoving into its 423,000-square-footoffice in San Francisco’s MissionBay in late 2017 to early 2018, withspace for 3,000 to 4,000 employees,potentially doubling its current2,000-employee workforce in theHMA. Job growth is also forecast tocontinue in the education and health

S a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S5Economic Conditions Continuedservices sector, the fastest growingsector in the HMA, in percentageterms, since 2000 (Figure 3). Thedevelopment of two new CaliforniaPacific Medical Center facilities—a 12-story, 274-bed hospital and a19-story medical office building—is expected to add as many as 1,500construction jobs from 2013 through2019. The facilities are expected toadd 650 full-time equivalent (FTE)permanent positions to the facilities atthe time of completion. In early 2015,the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) opened its biomedicalresearch campus, the UCSF MedicalCenter at Mission Bay, whichincludes the UCSF Benioff Children’sHospital San Francisco, UCSF BettyIrene Moore Women’s Hospital,UCSF Bakar Cancer Hospital, andUCSF Ron Conway Family GatewayMedical Building. As part of the newcampus expansion, The Regents ofthe University of California approvedan increase of approximately 4,970FTE positions to be added to themedical center during the forecastperiod. UCSF is currently the HMA’slargest employer, with 22,700employees (Table 3).Economic growth is expected tomoderate from its most recent peakof 4.4 percent in 2015 to 3.9 percentduring the third year of the forecastperiod. In October 2015, Twitterabandoned previous plans for a100,000-square-foot San Franciscoheadquarters expansion becauseuser growth lagged behind that ofcompetitors Facebook and Instagram(San Francisco Business Times). Duringthe same month, Twitter laid offapproximately 250 employees in theHMA, out of 336 layoffs nationwide,with most cuts in engineering andproduct divisions. During the fourthquarter of 2015, office rents inthe City of San Francisco are thehighest in the nation, leading somehigh-technology firms to relocateoutside the HMA to Oakland, whereoffice rents are one-half the cost(CBRE Group, Inc.). In addition toFigure 3. Sector Growth in the San Francisco HMA,* Percentage Change, 2000 to CurrentTotal nonfarm payroll jobsGoods-producing sectorsMining, logging, & constructionManufacturingService-providing sectorsWholesale & retail tradeTransportation & utilitiesInformationFinancial activitiesProfessional & business servicesEducation & health servicesLeisure & hospitalityOther servicesGovernment– 40– 30– 20– 1001020* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Note: Current is based on 12-month averages through December 2015.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics304050

6Economic Conditions ContinuedTable 3. Major Employers in the San Francisco HMA*University of California San FranciscoUniversity of San FranciscoGenentech, Inc.California Pacific Medical CenterPacific Gas and Electric CorporationWells Fargo & CompanyKaiser Permanente Oracle CorporationGap, Inc.Dignity HealthNonfarm Payroll SectorGovernmentEducation & health servicesEducation & health servicesEducation & health servicesTransportation & utilitiesFinancial activitiesEducation & health servicesProfessional & business servicesWholesale & retail tradeProfessional & business servicesNumber 006,0005,400* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Note: Excludes local school districts.Sources: San Francisco Business Times, Book of Lists 2014; North Bay Business Journal,Book of Lists, 2014purchasing its San Francisco building, Uber also recently purchaseda 330,000-square-foot building indowntown Oakland, which it willoccupy starting in 2017. The Oaklandlocation will have room for 2,000 to3,000 full-time employees. Althoughthe company plans to continue toexpand its workforce in both its SanFrancisco and Oakland locations,the move across the San FranciscoBay is likely to attract other startupfirms to Oakland. Three relocationsfrom San Francisco have alreadyoccurred: the Worker’s CompensationInsurance Rating Bureau of California, 99designs (an online graphicdesign marketplace), and LennarMultifamily Communities. At leastsix other high-technology companiesare expected to move to, or expand in,Oakland during the next year.Population and HouseholdsAs of January 1, 2016, theestimated population of theSan Francisco HMA is 1,896,000,Figure 4. Population and Household Growth in the San FranciscoHMA,* 2000 to ForecastAverage annual changeS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I SName of Employer25,00020,00015,00010,0005,00002000 to 20102010 to currentPopulationCurrent to forecastHouseholds* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Notes: The current date is January 1, 2016. The forecast date is January 1, 2019.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—estimates by analystreflecting an average annual gain of20,850, or 1.1 percent, since April 1,2010, significantly greater than theaverage annual gain of 4,500, or 0.3percent, from 2000 to 2010 (Figure 4).During the same period, growth inthe high-technology industry fueledincreased net in-migration of 12,300people annually, accounting for 59percent of population growth. FromJuly 2000 to July 2006, job declines asa result of the dot.com bust resultedin stagnant population growth and theHMA lost an average of 260 peoplea year because of net out-migrationthat averaged 8,975 people annually

(State of California, Department ofFinance). During this period, about65 percent of residents who migratedout of the HMA primarily moved toother California metropolitan areassuch as San Diego, Riverside-SanBernardino, and Fresno, wherejob growth was stronger (InternalRevenue Service). Population growthresumed from 2006 to 2009, averaging 13,250 people, or 0.8 percent,annually but slowed from 2009 to2010, to 9,075 people, or 0.5 percent,because of the lingering effects of thenational recession.Since 2010, improving economic conditions have led to an increase in netin-migration, with a growing numberfrom abroad and an increase inoverall population growth. From 2010to 2013 (the latest data available),foreign in-migration has increased byan average of 46 percent per year butstill accounts for only slightly morethan 1 percent of all in-migration tothe HMA. In Silicon Valley, foreignborn entrepreneurs led 44 percentof all high-technology companystartups (Kauffman Foundation, 2012study—latest data available). Figure 5Figure 5. Components of Population Change in the San FranciscoHMA,* 2000 to Forecast14,00012,00010,000Average annual changeS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S7Population and Households Continued8,0006,0004,0002,0000– 2,000– 4,000– 6,0002000 to 20102010 to currentNet natural changeCurrent to forecastNet migration* San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael HMA.Notes: The current date is January 1, 2016. The forecast date is January 1, 2019.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecast—estimates by analystshows the components of populationchange in the HMA from 2000 to theforecast date.The San Francisco County submarketis the most populous of the threesubmarkets in the HMA, with acurrent estimated population of867,800, reflecting an averageincrease of 10,900 people, or 1.3percent, annually since 2010. Similarto overall trends in the HMA, population growth in the submarket wasessentially flat from 2000 to 2006 afterthe dot.com bust, with an averageincrease of 990 people, or 0.1 percent,annually. From 2006 to 2010, population growth increased to an averageof 5,950 people, or 0.8 percent,annually when the local economybegan to recover. Since 2010, jobgrowth in the technology industryhas fueled further economic growththroughout all sectors of the localeconomy, and population growth hasincreased, primarily because of netin-migration, which averaged 7,350people, accounting for 67 percent ofpopulation growth in the submarket.As the center for high-technologyindustries, the San Francisco Countysubmarket is the most attractive toyoung professionals; as of 2014, thesubmarket has the largest concentration of young professionals, withthe youngest median age of 38 andthe smallest average household sizeamong the three submarkets in theHMA (2014 American CommunitySurvey [ACS] 1-year data).The San Mateo County submarkethas a current estimated populationof 766,300, reflecting a gain of 8,325people, or 1.1 percent, annually since2010. The effects of the dot.combust were particularly pronouncedin this submarket because it servesas a bedroom community for the

S a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S8Population and Households Continuedhigh-technology job centers in thecities of San Francisco and San Joseand also has a strong technologyindustry. Population growth in thesubmarket during the decade has beenprimarily a result of in-migration andhas generally followed the economiccycles in the HMA. From 2000 to2006, during the dot.com boom andresulting bust, population growthdeclined by an average of 1,250people, or 0.2 percent, while netout-migration averaged 6,675 peopleannually, representing 74 percentof total net out-migration from theHMA. The trend of net out-migrationreversed from 2006 to 2008 andnet in-migration to the submarketaveraged 650 people annually asjob growth rebounded. During thisperiod, population growth averaged6,000 people, or 0.9 percent, peryear. Population growth slowedfrom 2008 to 2010, to an averageof 4,050 people, or 0.6 percent,annually, when net out-migrationaveraged 1,000 people annually dueto lingering effects of the nationalrecession. Since 2010, out-migrationhas reversed and an average of 3,800people annually have moved intothe submarket, accounting for 46percent of population growth. With apredominance of young families, theSan Mateo County submarket has thelargest average household size of thethree submarkets and a median age of39 (2014 ACS 1-year data).The current estimated populationof the Marin County submarket is262,200, reflecting an average annualincrease of 1,700, or 0.7 percent,since April 1, 2010. By comparison,from 2000 to 2006, population growthwas stagnant because the average netnatural change (resident births minusresident deaths) of 990 people annually offset the average net out-migrationof 1,000 people annually. From2006 to 2010, population growth hasaveraged 1,375 people, or 0.6 percent,annually and net in-migration hasaveraged 480 people a year in thesubmarket. Of the submarkets in theHMA, the Marin County submarketis relatively most attractive to retireesbecause of restrictions that limit thedevelopment of high-density housing.As of 2014, the median age was 45,the oldest in the HMA (2014 ACS1-year data).During the next 3 years, populationgrowth in the HMA and in each ofthe submarkets is expected to slowcompared with growth during the2010-to-current period because ofmoderating economic conditions.Population growth in the HMA isforecast to average 18,000 people,or 0.9 percent, annually. Growth isforecast to slow the least in the SanMateo County submarket, which isexpected to grow by an average of7,425 people, or 1.0 percent, annually, because it has relatively moreaffordable housing options comparedwith the other two submarkets. TheSan Francisco County submarket isforecast to add an average of 9,625people, a 1.1-percent increase, annually, while population growth in theMarin County submarket is expectedto average 830 people, or 0.3 percent,annually.The number of households in the SanFrancisco HMA is growing muchfaster than in the previous decadedue to significant population growthduring the same period. Since 2010,the number of households in theHMA has increased by 7,300, or 1.0percent, a year compared with anaverage increase of 2,250 households,or 0.3 percent, a year from 2000 to2010. Similar to trends in population

9Population and Households ContinuedS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I Sgrowth, household growth was fastestin the San Francisco County submarket because it serves as the center ofthe high-technology industry, witha prevalence of young professionals in smaller households. Largerhouseholds tend to live elsewherein the HMA or in the Bay AreaFigure 6. Number of Households by Tenure in the San FranciscoCounty Submarket, 2000 to RenterCurrentOwnerNote: The current date is January 1, 2016.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by analystFigure 7. Number of Households by Tenure in the San MateoCounty Submarket, 2000 to 00020,000020002010RenterCurrentOwnerNote: The current date is January 1, 2016.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by analystFigure 8. Number of Households by Tenure in the Marin CountySubmarket, 2000 to 20002010RenterCurrentOwnerNote: The current date is January 1, 2016.Sources: 2000 and 2010—2000 Census and 2010 Census; current—estimates by analystbecause of the high housing costs andsmaller units in the submarket. In theSan Francisco County submarket,household growth was three timesgreater in the 2010-to-current period,at an average addition of 5,250households, or a 1.5-percent increase,annually, compared with averageannual growth of 1,600 households,or 0.5 percent, during the previousdecade. In the San Mateo Countysubmarket, the number of householdshas increased by an average of1,425, or 0.6 percent, annually since2010, an almost fourfold increasecompared with an average increaseof 370 households, or 0.1 percent,annually from 2000 to 2010. In theMarin County submarket, householdgrowth more than doubled, from anaverage increase of 260 households,or 0.3 percent, annually from 2000to 2010 to an average increase of 600households, or 0.6 percent, annuallysince 2010. An estimated 748,800households currently reside in theHMA, with 376,000 households inthe San Francisco County submarket,266,100 in the San Mateo Countysubmarket, and 106,650 in the MarinCounty submarket.During the 3-year forecast period,household growth is expected to slowas both economic conditions andpopulation growth moderate, to anaverage of 6,900 households, or 0.9percent, annually in the HMA. Thisgrowth is expected to average 5,025households, or 1.3 percent, in the SanFrancisco County submarket; 1,475households, or 0.5 percent, in the SanMateo County submarket; and 420households, or 0.4 percent, in theMarin County submarket. Figures 6,7, and 8 illustrate the number ofhouseholds by tenure in each submarket from 2000 to the current date.

10Housing Market TrendsS a n F r a n c i s c o - S a n M a t e o - S a n R a f a e l , C A C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I SSales Market—San Francisco County SubmarketSales housing market conditions inthe San Francisco County submarketare tight, with an estimated 1.0percent sales vacancy rate, down from2.4 percent in 2010 (Table DP-2 atthe end of this report). Total newand existing home sales (includingsingle-family homes, townhomes, andcondominiums) declined to 5,650homes sold during 2015, down 5 percent compared with the number soldin 2014 but still 5 percent higher thanthe previous low near the height of thehousing crisis during 2009 (Metrostudy, A Hanley Wood Company,with adjustments by the analyst). Therecent decline in sales is reflective oflow inventory rather than decreaseddemand. During December 2015,the unsold inventory index was 0.9months in the submarket comparedwith 1.7 months during December2014 and with 2.8 months statewide(California Association of Realtors ).The limited inventory of existing homeshas led to increased new home salessince 2013, mainly new condominiums,which have constituted the bulk ofnew homes for sale. During 2015,total new sales increased 32 percentto 580 homes, with condominiumsaccounting for 83 percent of new sales.Condominium sales comprise a significant share of total home sales becauseof the limited amount of developableland in the submarket. Since 2005 (theearliest data available), an average of93 percent of all new sales have beenof condominiums. During 2015, theaverage sales price of a new home was 1,134,800, 9 percent higher than theaverage new sales price of 1,040,300during 2014 and 54 percent higherthan the low of 734,600 during 2008.The recent increase in both new homesales and average sales prices for newhomes has been fueled by strongeconomic growth in the technologysector and high-income growth. Newhome sales, however, historically havebeen more responsive to changes inthe new home average sales price inthe submarket. As the primary jobcenter for the nine-county Bay Area,a significant number of commuterswould prefer to live in the SanFrancisco County su

San Francisco-San Mateo-San Rafael, California U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of January 1, 2016 Sonoma Solano Napa . 24. Fr P T ANAL YSIS 2 Table 1. Housing Demand in the San Francisco HMA* During the Forecast Period San Francisco HMA* San Fra

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