IOGP/JCOMM/WCRP WORKSHOP Our Future Climate

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industryPresentersLaurent BertinoPiers ForsterNansen CentrePriestley International Centre for Climate,University of LeedsLaurent Bertino holds a PhD in Geostatisticsfrom the Ecole des Mines de Paris. He has16 years of experience in data assimilation, applying theEnsemble Kalman Filter to the HYCOM ocean model andhas been responsible for the development and operationsof the TOPAZ ice-ocean forecasting system since January2003. Laurent leads the Arctic element of the CopernicusMarine Environment Monitoring Service and co-leads aNordic Center of Excellence on environmental forecastingand the European SWARP project (“Ships and wavesreaching polar regions”). He has also managed industrydriven modelling studies in the South China Sea, in the Gulfof Mexico, and in the Barents and Kara Seas.Øyvind BreivikNorwegian Meteorological InstituteProfessor Øyvind Breivik is Head of Divisionat MET Norway. He has over 20 years’experience in wind and wave climate research and wasinvolved in the development of the ocean-surface wavecoupling at ECMWF. He oversees the development of theNorwegian wave forecast system and the OpenDrift oildrift trajectory forecast models. He was involved in thedevelopment of the NORA10 hindcast and is responsible forthe development of a new high-resolution hindcast archivefor the Norwegian Sea.Piers Forster is the director of the PriestleyInternational Centre for Climate at the University ofLeeds. His main research areas are radiative forcing,climate sensitivity, precipitation changes, and the policyimplications of climate science. He is currently Lead Authorof both the IPCC Special Report of 1.5C and the upcomingIPCC 6th Assessment Report.Pat HarrJupiter IntelligenceDr. Patrick Harr recently joined JupiterIntelligence as a Science Fellow. Previously, Dr.Harr was Professor of Meteorology at the Naval PostgraduateSchool in Monterey, California. Dr. Harr’s research interestsare in tropical cyclones, statistics and decision sciences, anddynamic meteorology. Dr. Harr lead several internationalresearch field studies in conjunction with U.S., international,and World Meteorological Organization research programs.Most recently, Dr. Harr was Head of Atmospheric Sciencesat the U.S. National Science Foundation. He is a fellow of theAmerican Meteorological Society (AMS), was Editor of theMonthly Weather Review journal, Chaired the AMS Committeeon Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, and has servedin various capacities on committees of the World WeatherResearch Program of the World Meteorological Organization.Michelle CainPatrick HeimbachOxford Martin SchoolUniversity of TexasMichelle Cain is an Oxford Martin Fellow andScience and Policy Research Associate atthe Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford.Michelle’s work is focused on methane’s impact on climateand its role in climate mitigation.Patrick Heimbach is Associate Professor atthe University of Texas at Austin and fellowof the W. A. “Tex” Moncrief, Jr., Chair III in SimulationBased Engineering and Sciences. Previously, he workedfor 16 years at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Patrick earned his Ph.D. in 1998 in Geosciences from theMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University ofHamburg, Germany.

PresentersMohamad HejaziSvetlana JevrejevaPacific Northwest National LaboratoryNOCDr. Mohamad Hejazi is a research scientist.He leads the integrated water researchprogram at the Joint Global Change Research Institute(JGCRI), a collaboration between the University of Marylandand the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Hisresearch efforts include: Integrated modeling of energywater-land-climate systems, coupled human-Earth systemdynamics, global hydrologic modeling, and water resourcesmanagement. Dr. Hejazi holds B.S and M.S degrees fromthe University of Maryland, College Park, and a Ph.D fromthe University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Thomas KnutsonNOAA / Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratoryTom Knutson is a climate scientist withNOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, inPrinceton, New Jersey.He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society,Chair of a WMO “Task Team on Tropical Cyclones andClimate Change”, and a lead author for the 2017 U.S.Climate Science Special Report. His research interestsinclude hurricanes and climate change, and climate changedetection and attribution.James KossinNOAA’s National Centers for EnvironmentalInformationDr. James Kossin is an atmosphericscientist in the U.S. National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration specializing in tropical cyclone and climateresearch. He has served as a Lead Author on numerousinternational (IPCC) and U.S. National (NCA) climateassessment reports and is an active member of the UnitedNations WMO Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts onTropical Cyclones, and the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group onHurricanes and Climate.Dr. Svetlana Jevrejeva is a physicaloceanographer (Principal Senior Scientist)working at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and theNatural Environment Research Council (NERC) since 2002.She is an internationally acknowledged sea level expert,and was the lead author of a chapter on sea level changesthat appeared in the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 IPCC).Sergey PaltsevMassachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)Dr. Sergey Paltsev is a Deputy Director ofthe MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of GlobalChange, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),Cambridge, USA. He is the lead modeler in charge of theMIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) modelof the world economy.Alvaro Milho SemedoIHE DelftAlvaro Semedo is a certified hydrographerand a marine scientist. He is a graduate ofthe Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, withMSc Degrees in Physical Oceanography and Meteorologyand a PhD in Meteorology from Uppsala University inSweden. He has worked for the Portuguese HydrographicOffice, and for the Risø-DTU National Laboratory forSustainable Energy (Roskilde, Denmark) in the wind energydepartment, before starting his doctoral studies.He taught Meteorology, Oceanography, and Remote Sensingfor several years at the Portuguese Naval Academy, as wellas Wave Modelling at University of Lisbon. He was the Deanof Postgraduate Studies at the Portuguese Naval Academyfrom 2010 to 2016.Currently he is a Senior Lecturer in Coastal Oceanographyat IHE Delft, in The Netherlands.

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industryPresentersLen ShaffreyShang-Ping XieDepartment of Meteorology, University ofReading / NCAS-ClimateScripps Institution of Oceanography,University of CaliforniaLen Shaffrey is a Professor of Climate Scienceat the University of Reading and the Theme Leader forClimate and High Impact Weather in the National Centrefor Atmospheric Science. His personal research focuseson the impact of climate change and variability on weatherextremes such as storms, floods and droughts. Externallinks include being the Lead Academic for a KnowledgeTransfer Partnership with BP on wind and wave risk tooffshore oil and gas platforms.Pier Luigi VidaleDepartment of Meteorology, University ofReading / NCAS-ClimatePier Luigi Vidale is Professor of ClimateSystem Science at the University of Reading and Head ofHigh-Resolution Global Climate Modelling at NCAS. Hisresearch interests include global weather and climatemodeling, including GCM development, with a special focuson tropical cyclones, and land-atmosphere interactionsat the local to regional scale. He is currently the ScientificCoordinator of EU-Horizon 2020 PRIMAVERA andDirector of the NCAS Climate Modelling Summer School(2007-present).Guiling WangUniversity of ConnecticutDr. Wang is a Professor of EnvironmentalEngineering at the University of Connecticut.She received her B.E. and M.S. degrees from TsinghuaUniversity, and PhD degree from MIT. Dr. Wang has researchexperience and expertise in hydroclimatological extremes(focus on drought and flood), ecosystem-climate interactionsand hydrological and climate modeling/predictions.Shang-Ping Xie is a professor of climatescience and holds the Roger Revelle Chair at ScrippsInstitution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. He studies ocean-atmosphere interactions,climate variability and change. His research contributes toanswering such fundamental questions as what determinesthe spatio-temporal variations of climate, how preferredpatterns of climate variability form, how predictable climateis, and how climate will change in the face of increasingatmospheric greenhouse gases. Dr. Xie is a lead authorof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Fifth Assessment Report, and a fellow of the AmericanGeophysical Union and American Meteorological Society(AMS). He received the AMS Sverdrup Gold Medal.Francis ZwiersPacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumDr. Francis Zwiers is director of the PacificClimate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) at theUniversity of Victoria. His former roles include chief ofthe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysisand director of the Climate Research Division, both atEnvironment and Climate Change Canada. As a researchscientist, his expertise is in the application of statisticalmethods to the analysis of observed and simulated climatevariability and change. Dr. Zwiers is a Fellow of the RoyalSociety of Canada and of the American MeteorologicalSociety, a recipient of the Patterson Medal and President’sPrize, has served as an IPCC Coordinating Lead Author ofthe Fourth Assessment Report and as an elected memberof the IPCC Bureau for the Fifth Assessment Report.

Attendees listRobin StephensABPmerOlaf MartinsIOGPRegina AnthonyAker SolutionsLloyd SlaterIOGPSusan NinanBHP BillitonJim HerbertsonIPIECAMark CalverleyBlue Ocean ConsultingYuji HisaizumiJOGMECKen GottseligBPPatrick HarrJupiter IntelligencePhilip SmedleyBPØyvind BreivikMET NorwayAleida RiosBPSergey PaltsevMITPaul PageBPKevin EwansMRLSarah WilfordBPLaurent BertinoNansen CenterKieran BhatiaBPPatrick HoganNaval Research LaboratoryMichelle HorsfieldBPThomas KnutsonNOAAOliver JonesBPJames KossinNOAASamuel WalkerBPSvetlana JevrejevaNOCMichael ZhangBPTrym EdvardssonNorwegian Oil and Gas AssociationAlistair WynessBPGus JeansOceanalysisMichael HunterCairn EnergyRory SmythOceanMetrixAmy GuanChevronRichard GibsonOCGDon DanmeierChevronFrancis ZwiersJames StearChevronPacific Climate ImpactsConsortiumMauricio FragosoCLSMohamad HejaziPacific Northwest National LaboratoryChris YetskoConocoPhillipsCesar Henrique de Assis RibeiroPetrobrasOle PetersenDHIClarisse KaufmannPetrobrasDonald SmithEniJose Antonio LimaPetrobrasMichele RomanoEniJens Petter AabelPGNiGVal SwailEnvironment CanadaSteve BuchanRPSAnne CavendishEquinorLinda WeijersShellCatherine Jahre-NilsenEquinorPaul VerlaanShellCaroline Dezecot GlaweEquinorJon UptonShellEinar NygaardEquinorEmma BoormanShellAdel YounanExxonMobilMaxim YazarovTotalOleg EsenkovExxonMobilRobert BridgesTotalAmbre TrehinFugroClaire ChannelliereTotalJill BradonFugroEdward SteeleUK Met OfficeElke MeyerHelmholtz-Zentrum GeesthachtCentre for Materials and CoastalResearchShang-Ping XieUniversity of CaliforniaGuiling WangUniversity of ConnecticutAlvaro SemedoIHE DelftPiers ForsterUniversity of LeedsValerie Quiniou-RamusIndependent ConsultantMichelle CainUniversity of OxfordAlison BrownIndependent ConsultantPier Luigi VidaleUniversity of ReadingMikako MochizukiINPEXLen ShaffreyUniversity of ReadingIchimaru YoshikazuINPEX / JOGMECAlex BakerUniversity of ReadingLucyna KrylaIOGPRosmeri Porfirio da RochaUniversity of Sao PauloCarla LloretIOGPPatrick HeimbachUniversity of TexasGordon BallardIOGPBoram LeeWCRPKamila PiotrowskaIOGPRobert HamiltonWoods Hole GroupJan FlynnWoodside

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industry

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Grant Elliott, Vice Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TF Oliver Jones, Vice Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TF . involved in the development of the ocean-surface wave coupling at ECMWF. He oversees the development of the Norwegian wave forecast system and the OpenDrift oil