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IOGP/JCOMM/WCRP WORKSHOPOur Future ClimateUnderstanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industry25-27 September 2018BP Upstream Learning Centre in Sunbury, UKChertsey Road, Sunbury Upon Thames, Middlesex, TW16 7LN

The organisersThe International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP) is the voice of the global upstreamindustry. Oil and gas continue to provide a significant proportion of the world’s energy to meetgrowing demands for heat, light, and transport.Our Members produce 40% of the world’s oil and gas. They operate in all producing regions: The Americas, Africa, Europe, theMiddle East, the Caspian, Asia and Australia.We serve industry regulators as a global partner for improving safety, environmental, and social performance. We also act as aspecialised upstream forum in which our members identify and share knowledge and good practices to achieve improvements inhealth, safety, the environment, security and social responsibility.JCOMM, the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, is anintergovernmental body of technical experts that provides a mechanism for international coordinationof oceanographic and marine meteorological observing, data management and services, combining theexpertise, technologies and capacity building capabilities of the meteorological and oceanographic communities.The creation of this Joint Technical Commission results from a general recognition that worldwide improvements in coordinationand efficiency may be achieved by combining the expertise and technological capabilities of World Meteorological Organization(WMO) and UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC).To read more about JCOMM please visit World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) mission is to facilitate the analysis and prediction ofEarth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of directrelevance, benefit, and value to society. The two overarching objectives of the WCRP are to determinethe predictability of climate and the effect of human activities on climate.WCRP was established in 1980 under the joint sponsorship of the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO). In 1993 the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO also became a sponsor.The main objectives of WCRP, defined at its inception and still valid today, are to determine the predictability of climate and todetermine the effect of human activities on climate.WCRP has made enormous contributions to advancing climate science over the past 30 years (see the 25th AnniversaryBrochure). As a result of WCRP efforts, it is now possible for climate scientists to monitor, simulate and project global climatewith unprecedented accuracy, and provide climate information for use in governance, decision-making and in support of a widerange of practical end-user applications.To read more about WCRP please visit Organizing CommitteeJames Stear, Chair of IOGP’s Metocean CommitteeBørge Kvingedal, Vice-Chair of IOGP’s Metocean CommitteeAlison Brown, past Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFGrant Elliott, Vice Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFOliver Jones, Vice Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFClaire Channelliere, IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFChris Yetsko, IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFEinar Nygaard, IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFOleg Esenkov, IOGP’s Metocean CommitteePaul Verlaan, IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFJan Flynn, IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TFLucyna Kryla-Straszewska, IOGP’s Geomatics and Metocean ManagerSarah Grimes, JCOMM’s Joint SecretariatVal Swail, Environment and Climate Change Canada, JCOMMBoram Lee, WCRP Joint Planning Staff

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industryChanges in climate have the potentialto create significant disruption anduncertainty in the oil and gas sector.These include: cost impacts such as reduced plant efficiency from temperature riseand environmental impacts from the overflow of drainage systems fromincreased precipitation. social impacts related to increased water stress and physical risksfrom, for example, increased flood levels, sea level rise, and changing stormpatterns. Climate change can impact the communities and environmentsin which the industry operates. Stakeholder expectations around climatechange (including shareholders and governments) are also changing andare likely to continue to change.Understanding both the physical risks and vulnerabilities of the oil and gas sectorwill help IOGP Members develop and implement adaptation strategies to managethe physical impacts of climate change.Workshop objectives1Raise awareness and disseminate knowledge related to risks,methodologies, and approaches that help organisations adapt toclimate change2Improve confidence in the use of climate data by identifying itslimitations and develop improved methodologies that reduce andquantify uncertainty3Understand the potential risk picture that climate change posesfor all aspects of the industry

Programme – Day 1Tuesday 25 September 201808:00-09:0009:00-09:1509:15-09:35Registration and welcome coffee12:30-13:30Welcome by the HostOral Session 3 – Sea Level Riseand Ice CoverageAleida Rios, BP’s Head of Upstream EngineeringForeword by IOGP’s MetoceanCommitteeJames Stear, IOGP Metocean Committee Chair13:30-15:10Patrick Heimbach, University of TexasSvetlana Jevrejeva, NOCIOGP Overview by Gordon Ballard, ExecutiveDirectorLaurent Bertino, Nansen CentreJCOMM Overview by Val Swail, Environmentand Climate Change Canada15:10-15:30Questions and DiscussionWCRP Overview by Boram Lee, Senior ScientificOfficer15:30-16:00Coffee BreakBreakout sessionsOral Session 1 – EmissionsScenarios10:00-10:50Discussion in groupsChaired by: Oliver Jones and James StearSergey Paltsev, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (MIT)Group 1: Emissions Scenarios16:00-17:00Piers Forster, Priestley International Centre forClimate, University of Leeds10:50-11:00Questions and Discussion11:00-11:30Coffee BreakOral Session 2 – Air and SeawaterTemperatures11:30-12:20Shang-Ping Xie, Scripps Institution ofOceanography, University of CaliforniaQuestions and DiscussionChairs: Oliver Jones and James StearGroup 2: Air and Seawater TemperaturesChairs: Claire Channelliere and Chris YetskoGroup 3: Sea Level Rise and Ice CoverageChairs: Oleg Esenkov and Catherine Jahre-Nilsen17:00-17:10Reconvene at Auditorium17:10-17:45Breakout groups reportingChaired by: Claire Channelliere and Chris YetskoMichelle Cain, University of Oxford12:20-12:30Chaired by: Oleg Esenkov andCatherine Jahre-NilsenPat Harr, Jupiter IntelligenceCo-sponsors Overview09:35-10:00Lunch17:45-18:00Closing of Day 1James Stear, IOGP Metocean Committee Chair

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industryProgramme – Day 2Wednesday 26 September 201808:00-09:0009:00-09:15Oral Session 2 – Extra-TropicalStorms (continued)Registration and welcome coffeeWelcomeOliver Jones, IOGP Metocean Committee12:55-14:10Alvaro Milho Semedo, IHE DelftForeword09:15-10:0010:00-10:15Francis Zwiers, President & Chief ExecutiveOfficer at Pacific Climate Impacts Consortiumand past Vice-Chair of IPCCComfort BreakLen Shaffrey, Department of Meteorology,University of Reading / NCAS-Climate14:10-14:30Questions and Discussion14:30-15:00Coffee BreakOral Session 1 – Tropical StormsBreakout sessionsChaired by: James Stear and Jan Flynn10:15-11:30Discussion in groupsThomas Knutson, NOAA / Geophysical FluidDynamics LaboratoryGroup 1: Tropical Storms and ExtraTropical StormsJames Kossin, NOAA’s National Centers forEnvironmental InformationPier Luigi Vidale, Department of Meteorology,University of Reading / NCAS-Climate11:30-11:45Questions and sessing Abnormal Sea-statesin Extra Tropical Regions usingClimate ModelsChairs: James Stear and Jan FlynnGroup 2: Tropical Storms and ExtraTropical StormsChairs: Oliver Jones and Kieran BhatiaGroup 3: Tropical Storms and ExtraTropical StormsOral Session 2 – Extra-TropicalStormsChaired by: Oliver Jones and Kieran BhatiaØyvind Breivik, Norwegian MeteorologicalInstituteChairs: Chris Yetsko and Einar Nygaard16:30-16:40Reconvene at Auditorium16:40-17:15Breakout groups reporting17:15-17:30Oliver Jones, IOGP Metocean Committee17:30-19:30Closing of Day 2Oliver Jones, IOGP Metocean CommitteeReception / Dinner

Programme – Day 3Thursday 27 September 201808:00-09:0009:00-09:15Registration and welcome coffee11:35-11:45Questions and DiscussionWelcome11:45-13:00LunchClaire Channelliere, IOGP Metocean CommitteeBreakout sessionsOral Session 1 – Rainfall andflooding09:15-10:05Chaired by: Chris Yetsko and Claire ChannelliereDiscussion in groups13:00-14:00Group 1: Rainfall and floodingChairs: Chris Yetsko and Claire ChannelliereThomas Knutson, NOAA / Geophysical FluidDynamics LaboratoryFrancis Zwiers, Pacific Climate ImpactsConsortiumGroup 2: Drought, Fire and WaterAvailabilityChairs: Alistair Wyness and Paul Verlaan10:05-10:1510:15-10:45Questions and DiscussionReconvene at Auditorium14:10-14:45Breakout groups reportingCoffee BreakOral Session 2 – Drought, Fireand Water Availability10:45-11:3514:00-14:10Chaired by: Alistair Wyness and Paul VerlaanGuiling Wang, University of ConnecticutMohamad Hejazi, Pacific Northwest NationalLaboratory14:45-15:00Closing of Day 3Claire Channelliere, IOGP Metocean Committee

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industryPresentersLaurent BertinoPiers ForsterNansen CentrePriestley International Centre for Climate,University of LeedsLaurent Bertino holds a PhD in Geostatisticsfrom the Ecole des Mines de Paris. He has16 years of experience in data assimilation, applying theEnsemble Kalman Filter to the HYCOM ocean model andhas been responsible for the development and operationsof the TOPAZ ice-ocean forecasting system since January2003. Laurent leads the Arctic element of the CopernicusMarine Environment Monitoring Service and co-leads aNordic Center of Excellence on environmental forecastingand the European SWARP project (“Ships and wavesreaching polar regions”). He has also managed industrydriven modelling studies in the South China Sea, in the Gulfof Mexico, and in the Barents and Kara Seas.Øyvind BreivikNorwegian Meteorological InstituteProfessor Øyvind Breivik is Head of Divisionat MET Norway. He has over 20 years’experience in wind and wave climate research and wasinvolved in the development of the ocean-surface wavecoupling at ECMWF. He oversees the development of theNorwegian wave forecast system and the OpenDrift oildrift trajectory forecast models. He was involved in thedevelopment of the NORA10 hindcast and is responsible forthe development of a new high-resolution hindcast archivefor the Norwegian Sea.Piers Forster is the director of the PriestleyInternational Centre for Climate at the University ofLeeds. His main research areas are radiative forcing,climate sensitivity, precipitation changes, and the policyimplications of climate science. He is currently Lead Authorof both the IPCC Special Report of 1.5C and the upcomingIPCC 6th Assessment Report.Pat HarrJupiter IntelligenceDr. Patrick Harr recently joined JupiterIntelligence as a Science Fellow. Previously, Dr.Harr was Professor of Meteorology at the Naval PostgraduateSchool in Monterey, California. Dr. Harr’s research interestsare in tropical cyclones, statistics and decision sciences, anddynamic meteorology. Dr. Harr lead several internationalresearch field studies in conjunction with U.S., international,and World Meteorological Organization research programs.Most recently, Dr. Harr was Head of Atmospheric Sciencesat the U.S. National Science Foundation. He is a fellow of theAmerican Meteorological Society (AMS), was Editor of theMonthly Weather Review journal, Chaired the AMS Committeeon Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, and has servedin various capacities on committees of the World WeatherResearch Program of the World Meteorological Organization.Michelle CainPatrick HeimbachOxford Martin SchoolUniversity of TexasMichelle Cain is an Oxford Martin Fellow andScience and Policy Research Associate atthe Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford.Michelle’s work is focused on methane’s impact on climateand its role in climate mitigation.Patrick Heimbach is Associate Professor atthe University of Texas at Austin and fellowof the W. A. “Tex” Moncrief, Jr., Chair III in SimulationBased Engineering and Sciences. Previously, he workedfor 16 years at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Patrick earned his Ph.D. in 1998 in Geosciences from theMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University ofHamburg, Germany.

PresentersMohamad HejaziSvetlana JevrejevaPacific Northwest National LaboratoryNOCDr. Mohamad Hejazi is a research scientist.He leads the integrated water researchprogram at the Joint Global Change Research Institute(JGCRI), a collaboration between the University of Marylandand the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). Hisresearch efforts include: Integrated modeling of energywater-land-climate systems, coupled human-Earth systemdynamics, global hydrologic modeling, and water resourcesmanagement. Dr. Hejazi holds B.S and M.S degrees fromthe University of Maryland, College Park, and a Ph.D fromthe University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.Thomas KnutsonNOAA / Geophysical Fluid DynamicsLaboratoryTom Knutson is a climate scientist withNOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, inPrinceton, New Jersey.He is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society,Chair of a WMO “Task Team on Tropical Cyclones andClimate Change”, and a lead author for the 2017 U.S.Climate Science Special Report. His research interestsinclude hurricanes and climate change, and climate changedetection and attribution.James KossinNOAA’s National Centers for EnvironmentalInformationDr. James Kossin is an atmosphericscientist in the U.S. National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration specializing in tropical cyclone and climateresearch. He has served as a Lead Author on numerousinternational (IPCC) and U.S. National (NCA) climateassessment reports and is an active member of the UnitedNations WMO Expert Team on Climate Change Impacts onTropical Cyclones, and the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group onHurricanes and Climate.Dr. Svetlana Jevrejeva is a physicaloceanographer (Principal Senior Scientist)working at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and theNatural Environment Research Council (NERC) since 2002.She is an internationally acknowledged sea level expert,and was the lead author of a chapter on sea level changesthat appeared in the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5 IPCC).Sergey PaltsevMassachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)Dr. Sergey Paltsev is a Deputy Director ofthe MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of GlobalChange, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),Cambridge, USA. He is the lead modeler in charge of theMIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) modelof the world economy.Alvaro Milho SemedoIHE DelftAlvaro Semedo is a certified hydrographerand a marine scientist. He is a graduate ofthe Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, withMSc Degrees in Physical Oceanography and Meteorologyand a PhD in Meteorology from Uppsala University inSweden. He has worked for the Portuguese HydrographicOffice, and for the Risø-DTU National Laboratory forSustainable Energy (Roskilde, Denmark) in the wind energydepartment, before starting his doctoral studies.He taught Meteorology, Oceanography, and Remote Sensingfor several years at the Portuguese Naval Academy, as wellas Wave Modelling at University of Lisbon. He was the Deanof Postgraduate Studies at the Portuguese Naval Academyfrom 2010 to 2016.Currently he is a Senior Lecturer in Coastal Oceanographyat IHE Delft, in The Netherlands.

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industryPresentersLen ShaffreyShang-Ping XieDepartment of Meteorology, University ofReading / NCAS-ClimateScripps Institution of Oceanography,University of CaliforniaLen Shaffrey is a Professor of Climate Scienceat the University of Reading and the Theme Leader forClimate and High Impact Weather in the National Centrefor Atmospheric Science. His personal research focuseson the impact of climate change and variability on weatherextremes such as storms, floods and droughts. Externallinks include being the Lead Academic for a KnowledgeTransfer Partnership with BP on wind and wave risk tooffshore oil and gas platforms.Pier Luigi VidaleDepartment of Meteorology, University ofReading / NCAS-ClimatePier Luigi Vidale is Professor of ClimateSystem Science at the University of Reading and Head ofHigh-Resolution Global Climate Modelling at NCAS. Hisresearch interests include global weather and climatemodeling, including GCM development, with a special focuson tropical cyclones, and land-atmosphere interactionsat the local to regional scale. He is currently the ScientificCoordinator of EU-Horizon 2020 PRIMAVERA andDirector of the NCAS Climate Modelling Summer School(2007-present).Guiling WangUniversity of ConnecticutDr. Wang is a Professor of EnvironmentalEngineering at the University of Connecticut.She received her B.E. and M.S. degrees from TsinghuaUniversity, and PhD degree from MIT. Dr. Wang has researchexperience and expertise in hydroclimatological extremes(focus on drought and flood), ecosystem-climate interactionsand hydrological and climate modeling/predictions.Shang-Ping Xie is a professor of climatescience and holds the Roger Revelle Chair at ScrippsInstitution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego. He studies ocean-atmosphere interactions,climate variability and change. His research contributes toanswering such fundamental questions as what determinesthe spatio-temporal variations of climate, how preferredpatterns of climate variability form, how predictable climateis, and how climate will change in the face of increasingatmospheric greenhouse gases. Dr. Xie is a lead authorof the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Fifth Assessment Report, and a fellow of the AmericanGeophysical Union and American Meteorological Society(AMS). He received the AMS Sverdrup Gold Medal.Francis ZwiersPacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumDr. Francis Zwiers is director of the PacificClimate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) at theUniversity of Victoria. His former roles include chief ofthe Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysisand director of the Climate Research Division, both atEnvironment and Climate Change Canada. As a researchscientist, his expertise is in the application of statisticalmethods to the analysis of observed and simulated climatevariability and change. Dr. Zwiers is a Fellow of the RoyalSociety of Canada and of the American MeteorologicalSociety, a recipient of the Patterson Medal and President’sPrize, has served as an IPCC Coordinating Lead Author ofthe Fourth Assessment Report and as an elected memberof the IPCC Bureau for the Fifth Assessment Report.

Attendees listRobin StephensABPmerOlaf MartinsIOGPRegina AnthonyAker SolutionsLloyd SlaterIOGPSusan NinanBHP BillitonJim HerbertsonIPIECAMark CalverleyBlue Ocean ConsultingYuji HisaizumiJOGMECKen GottseligBPPatrick HarrJupiter IntelligencePhilip SmedleyBPØyvind BreivikMET NorwayAleida RiosBPSergey PaltsevMITPaul PageBPKevin EwansMRLSarah WilfordBPLaurent BertinoNansen CenterKieran BhatiaBPPatrick HoganNaval Research LaboratoryMichelle HorsfieldBPThomas KnutsonNOAAOliver JonesBPJames KossinNOAASamuel WalkerBPSvetlana JevrejevaNOCMichael ZhangBPTrym EdvardssonNorwegian Oil and Gas AssociationAlistair WynessBPGus JeansOceanalysisMichael HunterCairn EnergyRory SmythOceanMetrixAmy GuanChevronRichard GibsonOCGDon DanmeierChevronFrancis ZwiersJames StearChevronPacific Climate ImpactsConsortiumMauricio FragosoCLSMohamad HejaziPacific Northwest National LaboratoryChris YetskoConocoPhillipsCesar Henrique de Assis RibeiroPetrobrasOle PetersenDHIClarisse KaufmannPetrobrasDonald SmithEniJose Antonio LimaPetrobrasMichele RomanoEniJens Petter AabelPGNiGVal SwailEnvironment CanadaSteve BuchanRPSAnne CavendishEquinorLinda WeijersShellCatherine Jahre-NilsenEquinorPaul VerlaanShellCaroline Dezecot GlaweEquinorJon UptonShellEinar NygaardEquinorEmma BoormanShellAdel YounanExxonMobilMaxim YazarovTotalOleg EsenkovExxonMobilRobert BridgesTotalAmbre TrehinFugroClaire ChannelliereTotalJill BradonFugroEdward SteeleUK Met OfficeElke MeyerHelmholtz-Zentrum GeesthachtCentre for Materials and CoastalResearchShang-Ping XieUniversity of CaliforniaGuiling WangUniversity of ConnecticutAlvaro SemedoIHE DelftPiers ForsterUniversity of LeedsValerie Quiniou-RamusIndependent ConsultantMichelle CainUniversity of OxfordAlison BrownIndependent ConsultantPier Luigi VidaleUniversity of ReadingMikako MochizukiINPEXLen ShaffreyUniversity of ReadingIchimaru YoshikazuINPEX / JOGMECAlex BakerUniversity of ReadingLucyna KrylaIOGPRosmeri Porfirio da RochaUniversity of Sao PauloCarla LloretIOGPPatrick HeimbachUniversity of TexasGordon BallardIOGPBoram LeeWCRPKamila PiotrowskaIOGPRobert HamiltonWoods Hole GroupJan FlynnWoodside

Our Future Climate / Understanding the spread of physical risk for the oil and gas industry

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Grant Elliott, Vice Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TF Oliver Jones, Vice Chair of IOGP’s Climate Change Workshop TF . involved in the development of the ocean-surface wave coupling at ECMWF. He oversees the development of the Norwegian wave forecast system and the OpenDrift oil

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