CEO: Hirsch Holdings Inc. - Stock Trader's Almanac

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Commodity Trader's Almanac:Back and Better Than Ever for 2018Volatility Returns, But January Indicator Trifectain Midterm Election Years is BullishJeffrey A. HirschCEO: Hirsch Holdings Inc. Editor-in-Chief: Stock Trader’s AlmanacChief Market Strategist: Probabilities Fund Management LLCThe TradersExpo New York Marriott MarquisTuesday, February 27, 2018Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com

DisclaimerFOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLYThis presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy, nor sell or asolicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, product, service or investment. The opinions expressedherein do not constitute investment advice and independent advice should be sought where appropriate. Allinformation and opinions expressed herein are current as of publication and are subject to change withoutnotice.Investing involves substantial risk. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/orassociates makes any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using thisinformation. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for every situation. While pastperformance may be analyzed in this presentation, past performance should not be considered indicative offuture performance. No one should make any investment decision based on this information without firstconsulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and duediligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. Neither Mr. Hirsch,nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any representations or warrantieswith respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the information herein and specificallydisclaim all warranties, including without limitation warranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither Mr.Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates shall be liable for damages arisingherefrom. No warranty is or may be construed to be created or extended by informational, sales orpromotional materials.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com2

On The Shoulders of a GiantIf I have seen further,it is by standing on theshoulders of giants.– Sir Isaac NewtonCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com3

Profit From History! StockTradersAlmanac.comDigital Newsletter: Almanac Investor Weekly Research, Analysis, Signals & AlertsStocks & ETFsSave Up To 57% Off 150 for 1-Year, Promo Code: 1YRNY18BEST DEAL! 250 for 2-Years, Promo Code: 2YRNY18Annual Stock Trader’s Almanac included FREE every yearCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com6

Almanac Investing Philosophy“Those who study market historyare bound to profit from it!”But “Use history as a guide, not gospel.”— Sam StovallCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com7

Almanac Research Process 50 Years Analyzing, Researching & Testing Every Stock Market Trend Imaginable Publish Findings On An Annual Basis Update Weekly & Monthly Constructing Portfolios Cycles, Seasonality & Recurring PatternsCurrent Trends & EconomyMonetary and Government PolicyMarket Internals & SentimentFundamentals & Technical AnalysisCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com8

Major Investment Cycles War & Peace and Secular Bull & Bear Markets 4-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle Seasonal Cycles Best Six Months November-April Sectors & Commodities Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Intraday January IndicatorsCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com9

2010 Super Boom Forecast: Dow 38,820 by 2025From the bottom in 1974, it took eight years before themarket took off in 1982 and then another eight to move upthe rest of the 500%, in line with Yale Hirsch’s predictionin 1976 for a 500% market move by 1990. A 500% rise inthe Dow over 16 years from the intraday low of 6470 onMarch 6, 2009 would put the Dow at 38,820 in 2025.Next Super Boom: 2017.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com10

2017 Forecast Worst Case – Trump is a complete let down and the economyrolls over into recession – mild bear market, 5% chance. Base Case – Trump is moderately successful, but little realchange, perhaps too much compromise, economic growthremains tepid – single digit gains to low double digit, 65%chance. Best Case – Trump is largely successful with trimmingregulations, tax reform, healthcare reform and infrastructurebuildout. The U.S. economy accelerates, growth picks up andappears sustainable – 20% gains, 30% chance.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com13

What Does Trump Mean for Stocks? Under A Trump Presidency With A Congress RepublicanThe Market Is Expected To Perform Better Corporate America Pleased With New Tax Law Less Regs Across The Board Is A PlusCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com15

Midterm Sweet Spot Bottom Pickers ParadiseFour-Year Presidential Election Cycle Sweet SpotQuarterly % ChangesQ1Q2Q3Q4YearDow Jones Industrials (1949-March 2017)Average2.3%1.5%0.4%4.0%8.4%Post Election– 0.1%1.6%0.3%3.8%5.7%Midterm1.4%– 1.5%– ion1.0%1.0%0.7%2.3%5.3%S&P 500 (1949-March 2017)Average2.3%1.6%0.6%4.1%8.9%Post Election– 0.2%2.2%0.7%3.5%6.2%Midterm1.0%– lection1.6%1.8%1.1%2.0%6.7%NASDAQ Composite (1971-March 2017)Average4.3%3.1%0.15%4.5%12.4%Post Election– 1.2%6.6%2.2%4.8%11.1%Midterm2.0%– 2.7%– 4.5%8.6% .4%0.7%1.8%– 0.6%6.0%Q2-Q3Q4-Q22.0%2.0%– 1.8%5.9%1.8%8.2%3.9%20.4%4.4%3.7%2.3%3.0%– 2.2%5.5%2.9%8.6%2.4%21.1%6.4%4.0%3.4%8.7%– 6.7%8.5%2.8%12.0%4.1%32.0%8.9%3.2% 2017 Stock Traders Almanac. All rights reserved.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com16

50% Gain Off the Midterm Low% Change In Dow Jones Industrials Between TheMidterm Year Low And The High In The Following term Year LowDate of LowDowJul 30 1914 *52.32 %Jan 15 1918 **73.38Jan 10 1922 **78.59Mar 30 1926 *135.20Dec 16 1930 *157.51Jul 26 1934 *85.51Mar 31 1938 *98.95Apr 28 1942 *92.92Oct9 1946163.12Jan 13 1950 **196.81Jan 11 1954 **279.87Feb 25 1958 **436.89Jun 26 1962 *535.74Oct7 1966 *744.32May 26 1970 *631.16Dec6 1974 *577.60Feb 28 1978 *742.12Aug 12 1982 *776.92Jan 22 19861502.29Oct 11 1990 *2365.10Apr4 19943593.35Aug 31 1998 *7539.07Oct9 2002 *7286.27Jan 20 200610667.39Jul2 2010 **9686.48Feb3 201415372.80* Bear Mark et ended** Bear previous yearPre-Election Year HighDate of HighDow% GainDec27 191599.2189.6 %Nov3 1919119.6263.0Mar20 1923105.3834.1Dec31 1927202.4049.7Feb24 1931194.3623.4Nov19 1935148.4473.6Sep12 1939155.9257.6Jul14 1943145.8256.9Jul24 1947186.8514.5Sep13 1951276.3740.4Dec30 1955488.4074.5Dec31 1959679.3655.5Dec18 1963767.2143.2Sep25 1967943.0826.7Apr28 1971950.8250.6Jul16 1975881.8152.7Oct5 1979897.6121.0Nov29 19831287.2065.7Aug25 19872722.4281.2Dec31 19913168.8434.0Dec13 19955216.4745.2Dec31 1999 11497.1252.5Dec31 2003 10453.9243.5Oct9 2007 14164.5332.8Apr29 2011 12810.5432.3May19 2015 18312.3919.1Average48.6 %Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com17

2018 Forecast Worst Case – 5% chance. Full blown midterm bear marketcaused by North Korea actually setting off a nuke, no positiveimpact from tax reform, or some other doomsday scenario. Base Case – 47.5% chance. Above average midterm yeargains in the range of 8-15%, a mild worst six correction orpullback. Best Case – 47.5% chance. Everything pans out, tax reformjuices corporate earnings, bonuses & paychecks grow,economy grows. DJIA 29,000, S&P 3,300, NASDAQ 9,800Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com19

January Trifecta in Midterm YearsS&P 500 January Indicator Trifecta Midterm Years Since 1950New Year SC 1.1%FFD2.0%0.5%2.5%0.8%3.4%2.8%* As of Close February 22, 2018JB*FebLast 11 Mo1.7%1.0%19.7%5.1%0.3%38.0%4.3%– 2.1%32.4%0.5%– 1.8% – 13.5%2.5%0.05%10.8%5.6%– 4.2%—Average: – 0.51%17.5%% Up:60.080.0Full Year21.8%45.0%38.1%– 13.1%13.6%—21.1%80.0Source: Stock TradersAlmanac.com. All rights reserved.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com22

Great Worst Months Good for MarketMarket Performance Following GREAT Worst Six Months4-Year 31968199319641988201419962017*195019491989S&P 500May 1-Oct 315.6 %6.06.06.36.86.87.17.88.08.18.89.9S&P 500S&P 500YTD Oct 31 Nov 1-Apr 3013.5 %17.37.27.413.112.99.214.515.016.55.522.624.1 %7.40.3– 3.65.011.03.313.67.8**14.812.7– 2.8Year % Next Year26.3 %18.97.77.113.012.411.420.3—21.810.327.314.6 %13.0– 11.4– 1.59.127.3– 0.731.0—16.521.8– .838.123.525.82.626.420.326.79.017.38.512.8– an:# Up# Down% Up:*Not In Averages. **As of Jan 16, 201810.8 %9.9 %220%16.5 %15.8 %220100.0 %4.210.5 %12.2 %19290.5 %22.4 %23.5 %210100.0 %11.4 %12.8 %16576.2 % Hirsch Holdings Inc., Stock TradersAlmanac.com. All rights reserved.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com36

Best Six Months Switching Strategy Sell Losers Short & Let Your Winners Ride!!! We Do Sell Some in May, But Don’t Go Away Long and Short stocks, ETFs, Indices Utilizing MACD and other technical tools Aggressive vs. Defensive Options, Leverage Other Indicators, A/D lineCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com37

It Works! Just Ask Our SubscribersFrom June 2017:“Stock Traders Almanac has done it again. I have religiously followed the NASDAQ's "Best Eight Months"with MACD Timing for the last four years and have been very pleased with the results. This year hasbeen the best ever. In October of 2016 I received a buy signal on the QQQ's for 119 and I just receivedthe June sell signal for 139 for a 17% return which resulted in a profit of 340,000! Is it any wonderwhy I continue to subscribe to your fine subscription service every year?”Richard Canfield, ArizonaFrom June 2015:“I gladly subscribe to the Stock Trader's Almanac because it has made me a very successful trader. Myfavorite strategy is the NASDAQ eight month strategy that is slightly modified by the MACD average. InOctober of 2014 the email newsletter gave me a signal to buy the QQQ index at about 98. I promptlytransferred 1,500,000 in my retirement fund from the money market fund to the QQQ's. Then I patientlywaited for the signal to sell which came in early June of 2015. The sell price of about 108 gave me an11% return or 170,000 profit in just eight months! While most people were complaining how little themarket had moved in 2015, I was smiling like a Cheshire Cat! What is my next move? I wait for the signalfrom Stock Trader's Almanac email newsletter which will occur in lateOctober or early November to buy back in and start over again. Think about it. For less than 200 a year forthe Stock Trader's Almanac email newsletter, I made a 170,000 profit! Nice return on my investmentwouldn't you say?Rick Canfield, Prescott Az.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com38

Stock Selection Process Seasonal Overlay Sector Seasonality & Strength October Longs Summer Shorts Zacks Screen Criteria & Market Smith Fundamental Revenue Growth & Acceleration Earnings Growth & Acceleration Margins P/E P/S Cash Flow Debt Ratings Market Cap Avg. Trading Vol Insider Holdings Short Side Inverted Old School Technical Relative Strength Chart Patterns Support/Resistance MAsCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com47

Commodity Traders Almanac 2019 Focus Group Old Format Like STA Or New Organized by CommodityCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com52

Commodity Traders Almanac New Format Strategy Calendar Trades Index Reference Individual Commodity Seasonal Trade SectionCommodity Trader's Almanac 2019February AlmanacEnd of January Long S&P 500 TradeStrength in SoybeansCrude Oil Strikes a Winner in FebruaryMarch AlmanacSilver Tarnishes in FebruaryNatural Gas SurgesCocoa Peaks before St. Patrick’s DayMarch British Pound InvasionApril AlmanacApril Tax Time Takes a Bite out of GoldBonds Can Go Up When Stocks Go DownBeef Prices Head South before SummerMay AlmanacCopper Tops in MaySilver Slips in MayCoffee Buzz Fades in SummerXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXS&P 500 Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataEnd of January Long S&P 500 TradeMassive S&P 500 Gains Halloween to Christmas30-Year T-Bond Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataBonds Can Go Up When Stocks Go DownBonds Freeze Up in WinterCrude Oil Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataCrude Oil Strikes a Winner in FebruaryCrude Oil Takes a Breather in SeptemberNatural Gas Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataNatural Gas Surges in FebruarySummer Air Conditioning Heats Up Natural GasCopper Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataCopper Tops in MayCopper Starts to Build a Bullish Foundation in DecemberGold Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataApril Tax Time Takes a Bite out of GoldGold Bugs Get a Treat for the HolidaysCopyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. XXXXXXXXXXXXXSilver Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataSilver Tarnishes in FebruarySilver Slips in MaySoybeans Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataStrength in SoybeansShort Soybeans for SummerCocoa Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataCocoa Peaks before St. Patrick’s DayTwin Cocoa Crops Create Twin Summertime TradesCoffee Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataCoffee Buzz Fades in SummerAugust Gives Coffee a LiftLive Cattle Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataBeef Prices Head South before SummerSummer BBQ Season Gives Beef a BounceBritish Pound Cycle, Seasonality, Trading Guide & DataMarch British Pound InvasionSelling England By The Pound55XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Thank You!Jeffrey A. Hirsch is CEO of Hirsch Holdings, Editor-in-Chief of the Stock Trader’s Almanac &Almanac Investor Newsletter, Personal Investing And Trading Mentor and an InstitutionalResearch Consultant.He is the author of Super Boom: Why the Dow Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It andThe Little Book of Stock Market Cycles.The Data-Rich & Data-Driven 51-Year Market Cycle Analysis of Stock Trader's Almanac is the onlyinvestment tool of its kind that helps traders and investors forecast market trends with accuracyand confidence. To learn more please visit www.stocktradersalmanac.com.DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLYThis presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not an offer to buy, nor sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy orsell any security, product, service or investment. The opinions expressed herein do not constitute investment advice and independent adviceshould be sought where appropriate. All information and opinions expressed herein are current as of publication and are subject to changewithout notice. Investing involves substantial risk. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makesany guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using this information. The advice and strategies contained hereinmay not be suitable for every situation. While past performance may be analyzed in this presentation, past performance should not beconsidered indicative of future performance.No one should make any investment decision based on this information without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor andconducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing the prospectus and other public filings of the issuer. NeitherMr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates makes any representations or warranties with respect to theaccuracy or completeness of the contents of the information herein and specifically disclaim all warranties, including without limitationwarranties of fitness for a particular purpose. Neither Mr. Hirsch, nor any of his respective affiliates, employees and/or associates shall be liablefor damages arising herefrom. No warranty is or may be construed to be created or extended by informational, sales or promotional materials.Copyright 2000-2018 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and Hirsch Holdings Inc.All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com56

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CEO: Hirsch Holdings Inc. - Stock Trader's Almanac

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