Will The Recent Super Puma Problems Have A Long Term Effect?

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Will the recent Super Pumaproblems have a long term effect?Sharon Desfor, President, HeliValue , Inc.September 2013

September 2013

Super Pumas: The past yearSeptember 2013

Heli-Expo 2013September 2013

Eurocopter EC225 interim fix approvedSeptember 2013

AS332L2 Ditching off Shetland: 23rd August 2013September 2013

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Helicopter Incident List - North Sea 1973-2006Aircraft TypeEurocopter SA365N (Dauphin)Sikorsky S76A (Modified)Eurocopter AS332 (Super Puma)Eurocopter AS332 (Super Puma)Bell 212Sikorsky S61Boeing BV234 (Chinook)Bell 212Bell 214 STEurocopter AS332 (Super Puma)Sikorsky S76Bell 212Westland Wessex Mk 60Sikorsky S61Sikorsky S61Sikorsky S58Sikorsky S61Sikorsky ecambe Bay, UK7/7Leman Field, UK11/11Near Norne FPU, Norway12/12Near Cormorant 'A', UK11/17Ekofisk3/3Brent Spar Helideck6/13Near Sumburgh, UK45/47Dan Field, Denmark3/3Humber, UK2/2Aberdeen Airport, UK2/2Near Peterhead, UK4/4Near Dunlin, UK1/14Off Bacton, UK13/13Near Bergen, Norway18/18Near Stavanger, Norway12/12Forties Field1/10North Sea, Netherlands6/6Near Stavanger, Norway4/13DetailsUnder investigationMain rotor failure and crashEngine failure and loss of controlStall and crashMain rotor struck flareCollision and crashMain rotor/gearbox failure and crashTail rotor/gearbox failure and crashCause of crash unknownEngine failure and crashRotor failure and aircraft break-upPilot disorientation and crashMain rotor gearbox power loss and crashMain rotor gearbox failure and crashMain rotor gearbox failure and crashTail rotor/gearbox failure and crashMain rotor failure and crashTail rotor failure and ditchSeptember 2013

Helicopter Incident List - North Sea 1973-2006Aircraft TypeEurocopter SA365N (Dauphin)Sikorsky S76A (Modified)Eurocopter AS332 (Super Puma)Eurocopter AS332 (Super Puma)Bell 212Sikorsky S61Boeing BV234 (Chinook)Bell 212Bell 214 STEurocopter AS332 (Super Puma)Sikorsky S76Bell 212Westland Wessex Mk 60Sikorsky S61Sikorsky S61Sikorsky S58Sikorsky S61Sikorsky ecambe Bay, UK7/7Leman Field, UK11/11Near Norne FPU, Norway12/12Near Cormorant 'A', UK11/17Ekofisk3/3Brent Spar Helideck6/13Near Sumburgh, UK45/47Dan Field, Denmark3/3Humber, UK2/2Aberdeen Airport, UK2/2Near Peterhead, UK4/4Near Dunlin, UK1/14Off Bacton, UK13/13Near Bergen, Norway18/18Near Stavanger, Norway12/12Forties Field1/10North Sea, Netherlands6/6Near Stavanger, Norway4/13DetailsUnder investigationMain rotor failure and crashEngine failure and loss of controlStall and crashMain rotor struck flareCollision and crashMain rotor/gearbox failure and crashTail rotor/gearbox failure and crashCause of crash unknownEngine failure and crashRotor failure and aircraft break-upPilot disorientation and crashMain rotor gearbox power loss and crashMain rotor gearbox failure and crashMain rotor gearbox failure and crashTail rotor/gearbox failure and crashMain rotor failure and crashTail rotor failure and ditchSeptember 2013

Pivotal offshore helicopter incidents with opposite effectsSeptember 2013

Pivotal offshore helicopter incidents with opposite effectsSeptember 2013

September 2013

Will the Super Puma problems have a long term effect? No way to tell with any certainty yet, but we can look at what the indicators mightbe: acceptance by offshore operators, particularly North Sea operators;acceptance by the oil companies; acceptance by the unions; acceptance byfinance companies Acceptance by the operators is going to vary globally depending on the workersand unions at each local base. I personally believe that the oil companies are going to work to get these shipsback in service because they need the capacity – and I also believe that it’s the oilworkers and their unions who will drag out the issue.September 2013

Thanks for listening!Questions?Sharon Desfor, President, HeliValue , Inc.September 2013

Current Market Valuesfrom The Official Helicopter Blue Book September 5, 2013September 2013

MakeAgustaAgustaAgustaAgustaAgustaAgustaModel109A Widebody/Plus109C109E 05 480480BJuly 2013Mid-Time Value 452,500 953,000 1,760,000 3,250,000 1,800,000 7,000,000Low-Time ValueCurrent Base Price 772,500 1,324,000 3,650,000 4,325,000 2,700,000 10,250,000 775,000 1,965,000 175,000 330,000 525,000 690,000 950,000 1,750,000 2,320,000 625,000 655,000 700,000 1,480,000 1,910,000 2,010,000 2,590,000 4,470,000 1,075,000 1,580,000 110,000 1,050,000 2,650,000 305,000 1,250,000 635,000 1,000,000 1,900,000 3,500,000 3,950,000 835,000 900,000 1,030,000 2,585,000 3,080,000 3,230,000 4,080,000 8,250,000 1,600,000 2,840,000 155,000 90,000 106,000 80,000 115,000 290,000 470,000 135,000 205,000 120,000 315,000 465,000 670,000 2,350,000 2,950,000September 2013

0BA350B2350B3350D355F1355F2355N/NPJuly 2013Mid-Time Value 19,570,000 22,610,000 650,000 1,190,000 1,470,000 1,390,000 655,000 1,425,000 1,350,000 2,400,000 1,350,000 2,400,000 4,060,000 2,725,000 5,890,000 2,730,000 6,500,000 9,150,000 13,150,000 395,000 595,000 1,046,000 1,260,000 400,000 445,000 680,000 1,055,000Low-Time ValueCurrent Base Price 24,150,000 26,950,000 880,000 1,825,000 2,280,000 2,840,000 1,130,000 2,000,000 1,950,000 3,950,000 1,950,000 3,950,000 5,625,000 3,200,000 7,800,000 4,200,000 8,500,000 11,675,000 15,240,000 645,000 845,000 1,691,000 2,250,000 650,000 620,000 1,065,000 2,080,000 5,104,235 5,104,235 6,563,856 11,497,938 2,063,667 2,605,051 3,603,959September 2013

July terMid-Time ValueLow-Time ValueCurrent Base Price 700,000 1,140,000365N1 1,040,000 1,640,000Eurocopter365N2 2,000,000 2,950,000Eurocopter365N3 3,160,000 4,970,000KamanKMAX 4,200,000 5,400,000MD Helicopters500C 210,000 370,000MD Helicopters500D 415,000 685,000MD Helicopters500E 495,000 1,090,000 1,800,000MD Helicopters530FF 650,000 1,440,000 2,300,000MD Helicopters520N 565,000 885,000 2,200,000MD Helicopters600N 750,000 1,150,000 2,500,000MD HelicoptersMD 900/902 1,325,000 2,925,000 6,400,000RobinsonR22 Beta 74,000 132,000RobinsonR22 Beta 2 90,000 185,000RobinsonR22 Mariner 99,000 179,000RobinsonR22 Mariner 2 125,000 195,000RobinsonR44 125,000 220,000RobinsonR44 Clipper/Clipper 2 160,000 350,000 465,000RobinsonR44 Raven 1 175,000 360,000 363,000RobinsonR44 Raven 2 190,000 440,000 442,000 10,401,090 270,000September 2013

300CB300CBi330SP333S-61NS-76A MK IIS-76BS-76C S-76C S-92AJuly 2013Mid-Time Value 55,000 65,000 105,000 110,000 105,000 160,000 260,000 340,000 3,572,500 575,000 805,000 2,300,000 7,850,000 14,980,000Low-Time Value 77,500 90,000 145,000 275,000 215,000 250,000 480,000 630,000 4,387,500 725,000 1,230,000 5,650,000 9,900,000 23,410,000Current Base Price 27,000,000September 2013

How do replacement models hit the existingfleet?September 2013

How do replacement models hit the existing fleet? Offshore: At the moment they come in by number of seats vs. range. Today’s rigs andplatforms can go as far as 150 miles offshore – and it sounds like tomorrow’s will go to 250.So today’s hot market is heavy twins and super mediums with the range to travel to thefarthest drilling rigs and production platforms. In the next ten years, newer technology likethe AW609 tilt-rotor, Eurocopter’s X-cube, and whatever civil model Sikorsky may choose todevelop from its X2 project, will probably take over as leaders with 500-mile ranges butfewer seats. EMS favors cabin volume and flavor of the month. When the BK117-series started tobecome functionally obsolete, Eurocopter replaced it with the EC135 and -145. The 135was more popular with its smaller space but more economical acquisition and operatingcosts. It became the new industry standard for EMS operations. Suddenly the economyimploded, and EMS operators began acquiring single-engine helicopters again, notably theEC130. I imagine this flip-flop will continue forever, given the economic forces and financialscrutiny surrounding hospital expenses and capital expenditures.September 2013

How do replacement models hit the existing fleet? As far as the impact on values of predecessor models, there is a distinct wave. When a new model is introduced, there is an immediate drop in new orders for thepredecessor model, while buyers pause to consider the differences, improvements, andrisks of investing in new technology. At this point sometimes the used market will falter aswell, until more information and a timeline for production is released. During the development cycle, buyers recommence new purchases of the older model,looking for a bargain, or for a more immediate acquisition. Most times the used marketwill remain, or become, active at “normal” prices, if there were such a thing as “normal.” When the new model is certificated, both new and used buyers typically hesitate again,and production of the predecessor model slows to a trickle. Once the new model goesinto production, media attention generates excitement and orders for new aircraft. Usedvalues drop noticeably for a period of 6-12 months. At this point, the market suddenly realizes what a good deal the predecessor model isrelative to the capabilities and price point of the new model, and the used market picksback up, both in volume and in value.September 2013

What is the economic life of a helicopter?September 2013

What is the economic life of a helicopter? In the June 2005 issue of Rotorbreeze, one manufacturer made it explicit. “Bell Helicopterdesigns and builds commercial aircraft airframes specifically with no need for a scheduled orfinite retirement life, either in calendar time or in accumulated flight hours by operating theaircraft in accordance with the Bell-approved maintenance and overhaul recommendations,complying with the applicable bulletins recommended by Bell, and using only parts andprocesses acceptable to Bell.” Put simply, as long an operator can get parts for hishelicopter, and he maintains it according to the approved maintenance manual, he cancontinue to fly it indefinitely.September 2013

What is the economic life of a helicopter? If you must pick a number to test for tax lease parameters, use 30 years. It’s a nice roundnumber, it’s credible, and there is lots of evidence to support it as a minimum EUL. Just keepin mind that there are plenty of 40- to 50-year-old helicopters still flying and earning anincome for their owners, and the ability to re-lease a helicopter repeatedly for decades is oneof the draws of this segment of the aviation community.September 2013

Robinson R44 125,000 220,000 Robinson R44 Clipper/Clipper 2 160,000 350,000 465,000 . was more popular with its smaller space but more economical acquisition and operating costs. It became the new industry standard for EMS operations. Suddenly the economy imploded, and EMS oper

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