Commodities Outlook Series 2019 - Copenhagen Slides
WelcomeCopenhagen – 1st October 2019
Agenda13:30 Welcome from Refinitiv13:40 Gas Outlook - Marina Tsygankova, Refinitiv14:10 Oil Outlook - Alex Pearce, Refinitiv14:40 Carbon Outlook - Ingvild Sorhus, Refinitiv15:10 Break15:30 LNG Outlook - Anne Kat Brevik, Refinitiv16:00 Power Outlook - Gabriele Martinelli, Refinitiv16:30 Short to Medium Term Developments in Crude Oil- Ole S Hansen, Saxo Bank17:00 Networking reception2
No Giveaways Here3Commodities Outlook Series 2019
No Giveaways Here4
European Natural GasWinter Outlook 2019Energy Outlook Series: 1 October 2019, CopenhagenMarina Tsygankova, Senior Analyst, European Gas Analysis,RefinitivThe Financial andRisk business ofThomson Reutersis now Refinitiv.
Contents1.2.3.4.6Quick GY18 recapWhere price can be WINTER 19?MethodologyCloser look at baseload supply
Quick GY18 recap:where have we comefrom?
Prices: why focus on the TTF? Dominates liquidity on Continent4500Traded Volumes on Select European Hubs40003500Traded Volumes (TWh)300025002000150010005000NCG8GaspoolPEGTTF
Closer look at GY18: LNG is a game changerSurge in LNG arrivals amid global LNG supply growth, mild weather and slowing Chinese demand growth . Dutch production continues to decline onregulation. Lower Norwegian production on heavy summer maintenance and Troll below capacity for commercial reasons. Russia contributes to oversupplywith additional supply via auctions. UKCS roughly stable. Consumption year on year is unchanged: WIN18 consumption was soft, but summer consumptionwas stronger.Total consumption and supply in Northwest Europe (DEU, FRA, BEL, 42837360ConsumptionRussiaNorwayLNGGY179GY18Dutch productionUKCS
Storage inventory as a risk barometerStorages in NWE are 98% full, almost no space for injections in October. A complete reversal from last year when storages enteredOctober at record low.600Total NWE storage inventory ( DEU, FRA, BEL, NDL)500TWh4003002001000OctNovDecLast 5 years range10JanFebGY18MarGY17AprMayTotal CapacityJunJulAugSepOct
Prices: sustained bearishness in physical prices throughout GY18Oversupply is reflected in prices. Average TTF DA outturned lower than FM for applicable month, indicating oversupplied physicalmarket. Very different situation to tight conditions last year when events as Forties outage, ”Beast from the East” and worries for lowstorage stocks supported physical market.30TTF DA and Rolling Front Month by Delivery Date25 /MWh201510AVG DA511Front Month AVG by Delivery
Where prices can benext winter?
Where prices can be WINTER19?Our average prices scenario from Winter Outlook is sideways/bearish to the market. October is likely to come down amid very limited storage demand. FromNovember when net whithdrawals start storage risk resets and market will be pricing bullish weather risk. Storage overhang might come again into play by theend of the season particularly if winter turns mild.3025 /MWh201510AVG DA513Front Month AVG by DeliveryOur ForecastForward curve
WINTER19 prices likely to stay within coal switching rangeOctober is exeption, expected below coal switching price (CSP) floor. TTF WIN19 is trading around middle CSP range, with market searching for assurance thatswitching is available to balance the market in both directions. Weather is uncertain factor and can drive price into lower or upper part of the range.3025 /MWh201510AVG DA514Front Month AVG by DeliveryOur ForecastForward curveMAX CSPMIN CSP
WIN19 ForecastMethodology
Methodology: A quick overview of main methodsScenarios Applying real weather data from past 36 years (1981/82 to 2017/18) Weather data for multiple variables is run through our newly recalibrated LDZ model, producing 36 consumption scenarios. Baseload supply assumed roughly stable not affected much by weather conditionsEach scenario returns an end-of-season storage situation Some will be below zero, some substantially large volumes of storage This is prior to any demand elasticity or additional, price-reactive LNG supplyPrice relevant adjustments made to give indication of price outcome Proprietary elasticity model used to inform how much flexibility there is in gas for power demand Additional LNG can be sourced from Atlantic if needed, but comes at specific price (Point of Indifference)16
Northwest Europe Central consumption scenarioCentral scenario is an increase on last year. Shows how low consumption was last yearNWE demand ranges from 1,010TWh for WIN19 in the very mildest scenario to 1,250TWh in very coldest. Range of 240TWh is about 45% of NWE storage capConsumption forecast NWE (DEU, FRA, BEL, 4Dec 19Jan 20759549820Oct 19Nov 19Scenario range17Central NWE Consumtion ForecastFeb 202018/2918Mar 20
Winter-on-winter changes: Tighter, but driven by “normal” consumptionSupply might be tighter, mainly on a reduction in Dutch production and LNG. Lower Russian direct supply to Germany due to OPAL, but should be offset bylower net exports to Czech Republic. Norwegian production forecast higher due to Aasta Hansteen and strong Troll quota.Consumption is 9Bcm higher due to “normal” weather. Regional exports are also up, including increase to Denmark.3Winter on Winter supply change forecast2.114Winter on Winter demand change -4-4.1-560-2-2-4NWE& UKConsumption18To CzechRepublicTo DenmarkOther regionalbordersTotal
Storage inventory forecasts and gas for power demand elasticity.Inventory level of 110-130 TWh by the end of winter is price neutral signal. In 14 of 36 scenarios ( 38%) storage inventories below comfortable level and lessgas for power demand is required. In 16 of 36 scenarios ( 43%) more gas for power demand is required above this level. Demand elasticity indicates how muchswitching between coal and gas can be available if price will move from current level to max/min of coal switching range.800250Continental Winter demand elasticity600CSP MINEnd of season storage and season priceforecast per scenario22.020020.015018.0CurrentWIN19 /MWh200TWhGWh/d change in consumption40010016.05014.0012.00-200-400CSP MAX-60010.019Before Demand ElasticityAfter Demand ElasticityAVG 172125Weather scenario2933
Price rising toward top of FSP also triggers more LNG at current pricesGoing into WIN18, Asian LNG prices were sufficiently high that Europe needed to be outside FSP to gain more LNGFor WIN19, given current prices, it is possible to also trigger more LNG once FSP ceiling is reachedPoints of Indifference: LNG producers (p/th)65605550454035302520Oct-19Nov-19TTF Fwd20Asian FwdDec-19Sabine Pass PoIJan-20Yamal West PoIFeb-20Conti CSP MINMar-20Conti CSP Ceiling
Closer look atbaseload supply
UK Continental Shelfproduction
UKCS: Maturation halted by Culzean. No significant new fields until 2021Decline of UKCS production reversed around 2014 with addition of new fields and return of RoughWest of Shetland development has taken place since 2016. Maturation is ongoing, but lower for WIN19 due to Culzean start upNo large new fields until 2021 at earliest (Tolmount). No major outages forecast unlike WIN17. Rough sharply lower than previous years240TWh UKCS winter productionUKCS monthly production by ct-19Nov-19Dec-192019 WIN OUTLOOK F23Jan-20WIN17Feb-20WIN18Mar-20
NORWAY
Troll quota is heavily underproduced in GY18Heavy SUM19 maintenance at Troll. SUM20 traded at strong premium to prompt market insentivised roll production well below available capacity. No suchincentives last year, similar situation was in SUM14, Troll production was deferred into SUM15. Potential for this to happen next summer, but with Troll quotanow very high now ( 38 bcm), not much more than 2 bcm can be deferred into next summer2545Troll production vs. quota40NBP Next summer premium to DA2035153010252015343236p/thbcm539333227001 Apr30 Apr30 May25 Jun23 2017/182018/19-20Troll production25Troll QuotaSUM14SUM19SUM1820 Aug17 Sep
Norway: higher Aasta Hansteen and stable winter on winter TrollAasta Hansten came to full production ( 23mcm/d) only from March, should be fully available this winter. Troll winter on winter production is forecast stable,though insentives are there to hold Troll production lower in October. High Troll quota requires field at capacity during winter .Make up for underproductionthis year will need to happen during summer.45.0Seasonal Troll production in 5.0Norwegian winter produciton forecast by 16SummerGY17GY18GY19 FOther fieldsAasta HansteenOsebergWIN18
Dutch Production
Dutch production continues to decline amid stronger Groningen regulation.Quota for GY19 is set 11.8 bcm, notably lower than earlier indicated at 15.9 bcm60Groningen field 013GY2014GY2015GY2016GY2017GY2018GY2019
Likely heavier drop in Groningen production in summer than in winterLast winter was mild. Under outcome of more ”normal ” relatively strong Groningem produciton still might be needed. This mean less injections might beavailable for Norg next summer, whcih is in line with measures proposed by GTS.Groningen by month and gas 02019 F0Oct-5029NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep
RUSSIA
Russian total has not dropped after OPAL capacity cutMain drop via OPAL is at German/Czech border at OPAL Brandov. Reduction in OPAL entry at Greiswald is only 20%, with more OPAL gas left in Germany.Reduction into Czech Republic is compensated by higher flows from Ukraine. More pressure on Gazprom to sign transit deal with Ukraine at least for -Aug11-AugOpal entry at Greiswald3121-Aug31-AugTotal Russian flows via OPAL, NEL, Yamal-Europe and Velke Kapusany via Ukraine10-Sep20-SepOPAL Brandov exit to Czech
Lower Russian supply to NWE due to OPAL, but likely offset by flows via UkraineWe do not consider lower OPAL flows this as a bullish factor for next winter.Additional sales via Gazprom’s Electronic Sales Platform ( ETS) can support strong Russiam flows also next winter (market share defence)2800Russian supply to NWE (OPAL, NEL, Yamal-Europe)Auction sales (ESP) per month delivery20002700180026001600Olbernhau rnoldstein23008002200VTP Austria600VTP Slovakia2100400Gaspool VP2000200NetConnect Germany0Oct-18GY201832GY2019 FDec-18Feb-19Apr-19Jun-19Aug-19
LNG
LNG sendout: not as high as GY18 but still strongAlthough less LNG sendout forecast than WIN18, this is not a small amount and does continue to have a substantial impact on hub prices.OCT19 volume is largest year-year increase, mid winter tighter due primarily to Asian driversUK and northwest Continent WIN19 sendout(mcm/d)LNG sendout by winter 55.0200Oct-19Nov-19Total34Dec-19WIN18 ActualJan-20Feb-20WIN17 ActualMar-200.0WIN10 WIN11 WIN12 WIN13 WIN14 WIN15 WIN16 WIN17 WIN18 WIN19F
Conclusions andRisks
Conclusions on WIN19 Sideways/Bearish view on WIN19 compared to the market. OCT19 could be acutely bearish amid very limited storage demand. Storage risk resets once sites are full and withdrawals begin If winter is not particularly cold storage overhang can come to the focus again by the end of the winter weighning onprices LNG to remain strong in WIN19, but could be slightly lower than WIN18 assuming normal weather in Asia Piped supply to remain strong from Norway (Aasta Hansteen) and Russia (market share defence) Under outcome of Central scenario market is expected to look more balanced by the end of WIN19 compared toacute oversupply at the start of WIN19 and tight situation ahead of WIN1836
Thank You
European RefinedProduct Trends & OutlookAlex Pearce – Lead Analyst, Oil ResearchCopenhagenOct 1, 2019
Refinitiv Crude OutlookSupply cuts expected to keep floor prices falling despite lingering demand concernsSupply OutlookDemand OutlookPrice Forecast0.526 90Brentmillion bpdmillion bbls24230.4 800.3 700.2 /bbl250.1220.021 60 50 40-0.1 3020-0.2USSource: Refinitiv Oil Research2 million bbls of OPEC cuts sinceNov-18, however output is rising39WTIEuropean Refined Product OutlookChina Europe Japan India MiddleEastSource: Refinitiv Oil ResearchWe estimate just over 1 millionbpd of additional demand in 2019 20Jan-16Nov-16Sep-17Jul-18May-19Source: Refinitiv Oil ResearchDemand pressures expected toresult in 2019 avg. 65.70/bbl
Refinitiv Trade FlowsModel-based assimilation of data on vessel locations and cargoes combined with systematic analyst review ofoutputs across clean, dirty, LNG, LPG and bulk tankers.Collect DataTracking VesselsMaking AssessmentsVessel characteristics, historic andcurrent positions, fixtures, portinspections, customs dataCreate best view of current andhistoric tracks using AIS andalgorithms, route profilingUnderway or discharged, single ormultiload, cargo and volumes,mitigating missing data using analystexpertiseFlow CreationFlow Updated Throughout LifecycleFlow Discharge40European Refined Product Outlook
Gasoline Trade FlowsEurope is a key exporter to the US and West Africa10.5 mmt( 17%)1.1 mmt( 15%)1.2 mmt(-77%)8.7 mmt( 28%)Source: Eurostat41European Refined Product Outlook
Europe Gasoline Margins Tied to US Inventory ChangesCapitalising on export opportunitiesUS Gasoline Inventory Net Change vs. NWE EBOB Crack 10EIA US Gasoline Inventory ChangeArbitrage Profitability (EBOB-RBOB)Refinitiv NWE EBOB Crack108 82019 Volatile6 640 2-2million bbls /bbl2018 Stable2 4-4 0-6- 2-8Source: EIA, Refinitiv42European Refined Product Outlook13 Sep 1930 Aug 1916 Aug 1902 Aug 1919 Jul 1905 Jul 1921 Jun 1907 Jun 1924 May 1910 May 1926 Apr 1912 Apr 1929 Mar 1915 Mar 1901 Mar 1915 Feb 1901 Feb 1918 Jan 19-1004 Jan 19- 4Source: Refinitiv
Refinitiv NWE to US Gasoline Trade FlowsRefinitiv Trade Flows – NWE to US Gasoline Exports1600ARAScandinavia14001200United KingdomFranceOthersEBOB-RBOB Spread 1M252015kt1080056004002000Source: Refinitiv43European Refined Product Outlook0-5-10cts/gal1000
US Gasoline DemandDemand Reached All-Time High This YearUS Gasoline Inventories2605Y RangeUS Cumulative Gasoline Imports2018201925020178million bblsmillion bbsl220201810240230201912642102001901 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51WeekSource: EIA44Edit presentation title on Slide Master using Insert Header & Footer201 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51Source: EIA
West African DemandNigerian Demand LowerNigeria DemandImportsWest Africa Imports by OriginClosing : JODI45Edit presentation title on Slide Master using Insert Header & Footer0%Source: Refinitiv Oil ResearchNWE
West Africa Served by ARARefinitiv Trade Flows – NWE to WAF Gasoline 6European Refined Product OutlookScandinaviaUnited KingdomFranceOthersUS Exports
European Gasoline OutlookStocks above 5-year AverageARA Gasoline StocksGasoline Crack Forward Curves16005Y Range20192018Gasoline Crack NWE CurveGasoline Crack US Curve 16Gasoline Crack Sing Curve 141400 12kt1200 10 81000 6800 4 2600ARA gasoline stocks are above 5-yr avg.Source: Insights Global47Edit presentation title on Slide Master using Insert Header & 20Dec-19Nov-191 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51WeekOct-19400Sep-19 0Backwardation in cracks in Europe & Asia, someVGO may be diverted from FCC for IMO 2020Source: Refinitiv Oil Research
Jet Trade FlowsEurope is a major importer of jet from the East811 kt(-73%)14.6 mmt( 18%)2.7 mmt( 37%)Source: Eurostat48European Refined Product Outlook
Jet Arbitrage From East of SuezSwing supply from East increasingAG/Asia to NWE Jet Trade FlowsSource: Refinitiv Oil Research49European Refined Product OutlookNWE Jet Imports 2018 vs. 2019 (Jan-Sep)Source: Refinitiv Oil Research
Air Travel Demand Growth SlowingGlobal economic slowdown dragging on jet demandAir Travel Demand Growth by RegionGlobalNorth AmericaEuropean Airline Shares vs BrentEuropeAsia-Pacific 240Thomson Reuters European Airline IndexBrent12% 90 220 80 2008%6%4% 70 60 180 50 160 40 30 140 202% 1200%20132014Source: IATAEuropean Refined Product Outlook20152016201720182019F 1002015 10 02016Source: Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv201720182019 /bblShare Index PriceRPK % Y-O-Y10%50 100
European Jet OutlookSummer stocks high, expectations of ample supplyARA Jet Kero Inventories5Y Range900Jet Cracks20192018Jet Crack NWE Curve 22Jet Crack Sing Curve 22800 21 21700 20 20600kt 19 19500 18 18400 17 17300ARA stocks were high over summer on open arbitrageand poor demand but have fallen to seasonal normsSource: Insights Global51Edit presentation title on Slide Master using Insert Header & 20Dec-19Nov-191 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51WeekOct-19200Sep-19 16Market structure flat, ample supplies of jetexpectedSource: Refinitiv Oil Research
Diesel Trade FlowsEurope is a major importer of diesel from Russia, East and US22.3 mmt(-3%)5.4 mmt(-30%)11.4 mmt( 31%)1.1 mmt(-42%)Source: EurostatSource: IIR52European Refined Product Outlook
Diesel Supply CompetitionCompetition intensifies as Russian output dipsRussia/East Diesel Flows to NWESource: Refinitiv Oil Research53European Refined Product OutlookEFS vs. Singapore Middle Distillate StocksSource: Refinitiv Oil Research, SGT
European Diesel OutlookSupplies more balanced, stocks held ahead of IMOARA Diesel/Gasoil Inventories42005Y RangeDiesel Cracks20182019kt3700 20Diesel Crack NWE CurveDiesel Crack Sing Curve 193200 192700 182200 18 171700ARA stocks are currently in line with 2018levels, have remained relatively steady oversummer.Source: Insights Global54Edit presentation title on Slide Master using Insert Header & 20Dec-19Nov-191 3 5 7 9 191200Sep-19 17European cracks largely priced in IMO 2020 effect,Asia in steeper contango amid fears of tighter SaudisuppliesSource: Refinitiv Oil Research
Refining OutlookAsian margins outperforming Europe and US 1820192018US PADD3 MarginsSingapore MarginsNWE Margins2017201920182017 12 25201920182017 16 20 10 14 12 8 15 10 6 8 10 6 4 2NWE slate margins increasinglyvolatile, propped up by MiddleDistillatesEdit presentation title on Slide Master using Insert Header & 22235248Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: Refinitiv Oil Research55 0 0 0- 2 5 2Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: Refinitiv Oil Research - 5Sing margins soared followingattack on Saudi oil facilities onconcerns of tight supplies ofcrude & 05217229241 4Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: Refinitiv Oil ResearchUS Gulf cracks pick up afterHurricane Imelda, strongergasoline & diesel prices
IMO2020: a Price Outlook 280 270 260 250 240 230 220 210 200Scrubber PaybackHSFO vs 0.5%6HSFO Front Month Crack40 tons/day 05- 54HSFOYears /tonTo Scrub Or Not To Scrub? 300 250 200 150 100 50 0- 10200.5% /ton1( 3.5m Scrubber) /ton SpreadConsumption 500 490 480 470 460 450 440 430 420 /ton /ton3- 20- 25- 30SpreadSource: Refinitiv Oil Research56- 15European Refined Product Outlook
Conclusions OPEC cuts and sanctions have been effective at cutting supply despite rising US output, howeverthis is against a background of reducing global demand. We maintain that supply side factors willcontinue to provide a floor to prices this year. Gasoline outlook for European refiners has become more challenging over the summer, with Atlanticbasin stocks ample without sufficient US and WAF import demand to support. Jet arbitrage has remained open for much of the summer as supplies swell, margins look good fornow but global demand for jet fuel also looking uncertain. Diesel more balanced with steady imports from the East offsetting reduced Russian flows ahead ofIMO 2020, however tepid economic led demand growth could threaten fundamentals, especially inlight of increasing capacity additions.57European Refined Product Outlook
Thank You
Carbon Market OutlookCommodities Outlook1 October 2019, KøbenhavnIngvild Sørhus, Lead Analyst, Refinitiv
Interactive Polling – CarbonGet out yourPhoneVisitslido.comNetwork: SAXO-GUEST60Enter Event Code:EO19
Agenda What is driving the Carbon price? Brexit and EU ETS Short-term price forecast - the next target Long-term price forecast
Carbon price development 2008-2019Back to where it started off3025Euro/t2015105EUA front-Dec contract, 2019
2019: Market Stability Reserve kicked offThe measure to tackle the oversupplyIf Oversupply Upper Threshold (833 Mt)2019: Auctions reduced by 40%Remove 24% of the surplus from EUA auctions;Else if Oversupply Lower threshold (400 Mt)Release 100 Mt from the MSR to EUA auctions;Will continue to tighten the marketsubstantiallyElseDo nothing;End63Shortage in focus!
The last year - what have being going on?Volatility continues for the EUA Dec-19 contract30282624Euro/t22Y-t-d average EUA price: 25/tQ3 average: 27/t20181614EUA front-Dec contract, 9Apr-19May-19Jun-19Jul-19Aug-19Sep-19
CO2 switching price becoming relevantGas becoming profitable all along the forward 5CO2 Switch EUR/MWH '27 Sep 2018ICE EUA EUR/T '27 Sep 2018CO2 Switch EUR/MWH '02 Jan 2019ICE EUA EUR/T '02 Jan 2019CO2 Switch EUR/MWH 27 Sep 2019ICE EUA EUR/T '27 Sep 2019Q4Y1Y2Y3
Fuel switching – a realityCO2 price of 27/t switches the merit orderGerman front-month merit order shows gas plants are even favored over lignite (fuel prices on 27 September, FM TTF 12.25/MWh)We estimate that EU ETS emissions are down 40 Mt so far in 2019 due to coal switching to gas generation ( 80TWh)Hard coalGasGasLignite66LigniteSource: Refinitiv Power Curve in Eikon
Brexit - All options still on the table?Brexit deadline 31 Octoberor 31 January?Deal withEU?Hard Brexit?Newelection?Newreferendum?67
Brexit creates uncertainty for EU ETS Uncertainty if UK installation will need to comply with EU ETS for their 2019emissions 2019 UK-issued EUAs suspended until a deal with EU. Likely UK installations have planned for 2019 emissions 2019 increased demand from UK without UK supply coming to the marketRisk of sell-off in No DealOverall bearish market sentimentBrexit slightly bullish for EU ETS in long term68
Carbon market outlook: market participants’ behavior in 2019IndustryUtilities2018: aggressive hedging2019: slowing down?Major utilities seems well on trackwith hedging in 2019Most adjusted down expectedgeneration for 2019 and 2020RWE ‘financially’ hedged carboninto mid 2020s.69FinancialsFinancials2018: awakening to carbon costs2019: catching up with carbonrisk management2018: re-entering carbon marketand seeing carbon as anattractive assestsWidely reported of ‘borrowing’future allocation2019: Trade war and Brexituncertainties limit theappetite?In contrast to cumulative surplus of600MtLong-term view on themarketDip-buyers
Key factors for the short-term carbon price Tightened supply with MSR in place will continue to support prices Annual shortage and abatement cost (fuel switching price) still in focus We estimate 70 Mt reduction in power sector emissions due fuel switching in 2019 Movements in gas prices will be key to watch Ukraine transit agreement Germany to use voluntary cancellation or not for coal phase-out Brexit.Price outlook: Q4: 25/t702020: 26/t
Carbon price forecast to 2030: calmer waters ahead30282019 Q3: 27/t2019: 25/t2020: 26/t2021-2027:Effects of lower MSR intake at 12%,higher prices lead to more abatement,drop in power sector emissions due to renewables.26EUA price, euro/t2422202019-2020:Annual shortages in focus,front running of EUA hedgesto weigh on prices.2028-2030:Power sector emissions continue to fall, abatement costsare higher, additional abatement needed in 24202520262027202820292030
What if?Electric vehicles?3028Climate ambition?MSR review?Brexit?26EUA price, euro/t24Energy efficiency?22Brexit?2018Coal phase-out?16Renewables growthbeyond 32% 7202820292030
Thank You
LNG Market OutlookOversupply loomsOctober 1, 2019Anne Kat BrevikDirector, LNG Research
Early October 2018: Northeast Asian LNG spot price – strong winter outlook1514Oil-Price Parity*Oil-Price Parity Fwd1312 /MMBtu11NE AsianSpot Price10Northeast Asian Futures9NBP Fwd8765NBP Front month4*Oil-Price Parity; 17.25% of3Brent front-month contract2Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-2075Source: Refinitiv, ICE
Early October 2018: Northeast Asian LNG spot price – strong winter outlook1514Oil-Price Parity*Oil-Price Parity Fwd1312 /MMBtu11NE AsianSpot Price10Northeast Asian Futures9NBP Fwd8765NBP Front month4*Oil-Price Parity; 17.25% of3Brent front-month contract2Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-2076Source: Refinitiv, ICE
Early October 2018: Northeast Asian LNG spot price – strong winter outlook1514Oil-Price Parity*Oil-Price Parity Fwd1312 /MMBtu11NE AsianSpot Price10Northeast Asian Futures9NBP Fwd8765NBP Front month4*Oil-Price Parity; 17.25% of3Brent front-month contract2Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-2077Source: Refinitiv, ICE
Overturning Atlantic netbacksSabine Pass netbacks /MMBtu109Japan87UK65432Jan18Mar18May18Jul18Source: Refinitiv, Affinity, ICE78Sep18Nov18Jan19Mar19May19Jul19Sep19
Influx of cargoes to northwest Europe – exports by thwest Europe: UK, Belgium, Netherlands, France.79Jun19Aug19
Influx of Atlantic cargoes to northwest Europe – by import 19Apr19Jun19Aug19
What to address Winter outlook – how much extra LNG?Supply – the U.S. taking the ledDemand – slowing Chinese LNG importsLNG cargo arrivals to EuropePrice expectations – Asian spot being supported by European hubs81
Winter supply outlook – expected increase of 20bcm or 8% YoYBcm131211109876543210U.S.AustraliaSource: Refinitiv82EgyptRussia
U.S. – “First wave” nearing completionBcm/month7Winter 2018/19Winter 2019/206Elba Island5FreeportCameron4Corpus Christi3Cove Point2Sabine Pass10JulySeptSource: Refinitiv83NovJanMarMayJulySeptNovJanMarMay
U.S. exports likely to stay competitive throughout the winter /MMBtu87NE Asia, JKM SwapNBP ForwardTTF Forward65HH front monthVar. cost to Japan4Var. cost to the UK/NL3HH n20Mar20Note: Variable costs include 115% of the Henry Hub gas hub plus shipping costs (Sabine Pass).84May20Source: Refinitiv, ICE,Platts, Affinity, CheniereMarketing
Winter demand outlook – expected increase of 22bcm or 11% ource: urope
Chinese LNG import growth lyAugSeptOctSource: Chinese Customs, Refinitiv86NovDecJanFebMarAprilMayJune
Expected change in market balance compared to the previous winter– slightly tighter balanceBcm 2624DEMANDSUPPLYDEFICIT2220Europe ex NWENet demand18Net supply161464USAJapan & S.KoreaChina20Middle East-287OtherAfricaOther Asia12108 2bcmSource: RefinitivRussiaAustralia
Northwest European LNG arrivals slightly downBcm14121086420Q4 2017 Q1 2018Source: Refinitiv88Q4 2018 Q1 2019Q42019fQ12020f
Northeast Asian LNG spot price – cushioned by European hub prices /MMBtu1413Oil-price parity1211Oil-PP forward1098NE Asian spot price7NE Asia JKM swapNBP forwardTTF forward65NBP front Nov19Jan20Mar20May20Source: Refinitiv,Thomson Reuters,ICE, Platts
TTF cushioned by coal-to-gas switching /MMBtu10987Coal-to-gasswitching bandAverage switching price6NW Continental Europe5TTF Fwd4TTF Day 0Mar-20May-20Source: Refinitiv, ICE
Sabine Pass forward netbacks* at current spot charter rates; 86k/day /MMBtu65Netback NBPNetback TTFNetback JapanUK4* Landed price Europe:395% of NBP & TTF fwd.JapanCurrent spot charter rates 86k/day. 160k TDFE2Mar-19May-19Jul-19Source: Refinitiv, Affinity, ICE91Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20
Yamal forward netbacks* at current spot charter rates; 86k/day /MMBtu76UKNetback NBPNetback TTF5Netback Japan4* Landed price Europe:95% of NBP & TTF fwd.3JapanCurrent spot charter rates 86k/day. 160k TDFE2Mar-19May-19Jul-19Source: Refinitiv, Affinity, ICE92Sep-
3 Commodities Outlook Series 2019 No Giveaways Here. 4 No Giveaways Here. The Financial and Risk business of Thomson Reuters is now Refinitiv. European Natural Gas Winter Outlook 2019 Energy Outlook Series: 1 October 2019, Copenhagen Marina Tsygankova, Senior Analyst, European Gas Analysi
City of Copenhagen. Copenhagen Climate Adaptation Plan: Copenhagen Carbon Neutral by 2025, Oct. 2011 . City of Copenhagen. Copenhagen Climate Projects, Annual Report, 2015. Approach to Teaching . During the course Copenhagen will be used as an ‘urban laboratory’ to study how liva
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Natural Resource Management (Watershed, Forestry and Livelihoods) Wildlife Conservation An Analysis Report by CMS ENVIS Centre 1 COPENHAGEN SUMMIT COPENHAGEN SUMMIT COPENHAGEN SUMMIT COPENHAGEN SUMMIT (December 7-18, 2009) COVERAGE IN PROMINENT INDIAN NEWS CHANNELS December 24, 2009 COPENHAGEN SUMMIT
Rout not over for commodities as CRB uptrend ends Time to move some money to stocks from commodities Commodities margins: art, science or politics? Rout rids commodities of speculative froth, fundamentals intact Oil, other commodities still too pricey for China Commods likely to recover after short correction-MF Global
Source: BMO Economics Unless otherwise specified, all indices reported in this publication correspond to prices in U.S. dollars. Commodities Outlook Commodities Outlook for November 2019
Department of Digital Design IT University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Denmark. 2014—2015 Research Assistant Department of Digital Design IT University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, Denmark EDUCATION 2013—2016 Master of Science in Information Technology Digital Design and Communication IT Unive
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