The View From The Center V3 - Home AmCap Incorporated
The View From The Center v3June 10, 2020
Sharks or Dolphins?Is it safe to go back in the retail waters?2
The Market Seems To Think So Strip Center REIT Stock Performance Since May 15, 2020Brixmor, Kimco, Site Centers, Federal, Urban Edge, Regency, Retail Properties of America3
Moving In The Right DirectionAmCap’s Shopping Center Heatmap, June 10AmCap’s Shopping Center Heatmap, March 25Center A Center B Center C Center D Center E Center F Center G Center H Center I Center J Center K Center L Center M Center N Center O Center P Center Q Center R Center S Center T Center U Center VCenter DCenter EAdvance Auto PartsA&A Music Center[Formerly AmeliaParis]Anthony's LadiesApparel #010Accurate PersonnelApplebee's #67007BBVA Compass CO18King Soopers #3301Center ACenter BAll NailsABC Liquor StoreAnthropologieAutozone 4897-01-01Bloomfield DentalCareBlue Cross Blue Shield At the Beach #51Dave’s Shoe RepairAmerica's Best WingsAkira JapaneseRestaurantBluemercuryBealls Outlet/ HomeBloomfield Opticians California ClosetsCentric #3306Dojo SourceDollar TreeAshburn Village InnBravo PizzaBonita Smoke ShopBoost MobileCitizen's BankGigantic CleanersH&R BlockBank of AmericaBrinton Lake Nails &SpaBonita Smoke ShopOfficeBoston MarketJewelFire DiamondsMaiden Choice Liquor Chau's CaféCardinal CameraChina Wok3-S LiquorsKing Soopers #29StoresKing SoopersMarketplace #36Center CRite AidChoong Man Chicken Chico'sCenter FCrunch FitnessCenter GCenter HCenter JCenter KCenter LCenter MCenter NCenter OCenter PCenter QHappy FeetAccuquest HearingCenterAmerica's BestContactsIHOPApple-A-Day NutritionApplebee'sClinic24 Hour Fitness #324 A Mail RoomAlt-Med Medical &Physical TherapyA Mobile LocksmithAT&T MobilityBrooklyn PizzaATI Physical TherapyAcademy Kids Dental,Bank of AmericaVision, OrthodonticsAmerica's Best Wings Longhorn Steakhouse Chipotle Mexican GrillBuffalo Wild WingsChipotle Mexican GrillDollar Tree#05-0032Ace HardwareBaskin-Robbins#33238ATI Physical Therapy MichaelsCorner BakeryEnterprise Rent-A-CarCPR of Fort Collins,LLCGreat ClipsDotty'sAdvance America#812-RBig Daddy's PizzaAurora's Hair Design Norridge TobaccoDale Douglas, DDSBurlington CoatFactoryFive BelowCrystal's Wine &LiquorIstanbul Café andBakeryEdward Jones #38808 Chi ReflexologyBright Stars Daycare Beautiful NailsCopaco LiquorsFive Guys Burgers &FriesFannie MayDel TacoBuckingham EasyClean LaundryEheart Design Center King Soopers #35Ace Cash Express #49Center IA1 Copy MailboxAldi #17Bank of AmericaAltitude Running, LLC AFC Urgent CareBoost MobilePearle VisionAFC Urgent Care(CONFIDENTIAL)Center RCenter SCenter TCenter UCenter VBest Cleaners24 Hour Fitness #352 24 Hour Fitness #326 Annie’s SalonAT&T MobilityChoptArthur Murray Dance Ace Hardware #36412Colorado Krav MagaStudio01Buffalo FinancialGroupAT&T (ConnectWireless)Creative Nail & SpaAt The Beacharc Thrift StoresCricket Wireless #555Buffalo Service CreditUnionAurora ModernDentistry (#522)Five BelowAT&T (ConnectWireless)Beauti Nails & SpaDollar Tree #2704[Formerly CarouselAcademy]Buffalo Wild WingsFrostingsCentre Salon & SpaCost Cutters #62211Fortune CityCatholic CharitiesGrowlers To GoChipotle #05-0007Elegant EyebrowThreadingKing Soopers #31Spectrum (TimeWarner Call Center)H&R Block #44819Dental Health ofColoradoGamestop Inc. #3819 Chick-fil-A (#1924)Hair Cuttery #2397CricketEmerald DentalModern NailsSpectrum (TimeWarner Standalone)Pizza HutJewel-Osco #3478Ideal Image Laser Hair Einstein's BagelsDickey's Barbecue PitRemoval Center#1797Frijoles ColoradoO'Reilly Auto Parts#2712CheektowagaChamber ofCommercePetco #1980Modest NailSalon KevinClary Eye Associates Color Me MineDr. Damon DDSCVSGameStopFedEx Office #1601Optical MastersFrankie's PizzaDr. Phone FixChipotle Mexican Grill Chopathi India#05-0023KitchenNoodles & Co #118SunTrust BankCynthia's Salon & Spa CVSSuperCutsDollar TreeMattress FirmHair & Co.Pho OKGreat ClipsFashion Nail & SpaD’Lux Spa & NailsCrisp & JuicyPutting EdgeJP Morgan Chase#84259Dick's Sporting Goods Inchinos Bamboo(#728)GardenElvis CinemasGeneral NutritionCenter #5358T-Mobile COLA004100ConServeOrangetheory FitnessTotal Laundry Center Domino's Pizza #8399 Eddie BauerFriendly Frankie'sLiquorEbLensMiracle EarHallmark Gold CrownPink Nails BeautySuper Star Nails & Spa#739SalonFirehouse SubsDollar Tree #04818Dollar Tree #1365Rainbow NailsKidsnips, LLCFamily Medicinei Rite iPhone RepairEuropean WaxJackson Hewitt TaxService #19901Tom & Jake’s Barbers County of EriePetco #2428Weis Markets Inc.Jean Nicole Hair Salon FirestoneMoe's Southwest GrillHand & StoneMassageGreat ClipsFantastic Sam’sDona BessyShoe Carnival #249L. Lovely Nails LtdFreddy's FrozenCustardJimmy JohnsFedEx Office #1851Qdoba Mexican EatsExpress Care ofWells Fargo Bank, NAAshburnNew Asian HouseHarmony SmilesDentistry #595Ross Dress For Less#2129Hungry Howie'sFlavored Crust PizzaFred Loya InsuranceGameStopAgencySports ClipsSally Beauty Supply#10391Jackson Hewitt TaxServiceH&R Block #7019Jenny Craig #4402StaplesEMP 180 Weight Loss GNCThe UPS Store #1237 Quest ChirporacticJimmy John's #0807Valley Inn Restaurant Empire State CollegeLensCrafters #00011 GameStop #6658Longhorn SteakhouseGreat Clips#5309King Soopers #40Wadsworth Liquor & First ChoiceWineEvaluationsMarshall's #559GNC #9117Mattress Warehouse H&R BlockMcDonald'sJ. Crew #0606Jet's PizzaGamestop #3876Starbucks #5293COEye Level EducationJ.Jill PMB #249JP Morgan ChaseGino's Pizza & RanchNew Magic NailsHouseHome Depot #1512SuperCuts #90986Floor & DesignKindercare #303071 Komoon Tai SushiGoodwillOak Street HealthHomegoods, Inc. #536King Soopers #130King Soopers #30KC Beauty MartSuper China BuffetJackson Hewitt TaxServiceNew BalanceInternational Optique Norman’s LiquorsFriends Barber ShopLoftMassage LuxeIHOPPETCOJimmy John'sKings GasKumonLittle Caesar'sThe Honey Baked Ham Men's WearhouseCompany#4611Jimmy John'sPETCOKim's Wig BotikPalmercareChiropracticNational Fuel GasHarris Teeter #242lululemon #1408Metro DinerJumbo BuffetSally BeautyKing Soopers #73Papa Murphy'sAli GrillMarshalls #10-0224Verizon WirelessSweet Frog YogurtMassage EnvyPho HauQueen City CaféHomeGoodsPearle VisionNail Boutique and Spa Kim's Gift ShopSuper Stop & ShopLV Spa & NailsPet Supplies PlusM&H DiscountLiquorsMicky's RestaurantVitamin ShoppeThe Joint ChiropracticMattress Firm#003042Pizza Hut #4853South RanchJersey Mike's SubsPF Chang's ChinaBistro #9949Naples CommunityHospitalLim's Health FoodMusic and Arts CenterSuper Stop & Shop Fuel#3905Qdoba Mexican Eats#2522New Age BarbershopMontgomery VillageWalgreensBeer & WineTrader JoesPeak Physical Therapy Portanova Jeweler[Formerly SpecialFunds Conservation]Master Lee's MartialNewSouth WindowPier 1 Imports #1056ArtsSolutionsLowe'sU.S. Armed ForcesCareer CenterOrangeTheory FitnessRoss #2253Rainbow Apparel#440MVP BarberOffice Depot #2418Massage Envy Spa(#365)Ulta #404PetCo #2414Qdoba Mexican EatsTelcoveMoby DickPottery Barn #538Old Time PotteryMcDonald'sPapa Murphy'sSmashburger #1325SprintNavy Federal CreditUnionRoss Dress For Less#1464Maurice's (#2079)Vitamin ShoppePho 63Schwan CleanersTime Warner Cable(Pad #3)Off Broadway ShoesPure Bread DeliPak-n-ShipMobily (AT&T)Pearle Vision, Inc.#6538Tan Your HideSubway Restaurant#2929Patel BrothersSalons by JCMenchie's FrozenYogurtRocky Mountain BalletTCF Bank #7035AcademyUnited States ofAmerica - IRSParty DepotRuby's DinerPetar's RestaurantPeppers JamaicanBakeryPetsmart #0251TCBY[Formerly WindsorDental Care]Petco #5808Tuesday MorningMilan LaserSparks Nails & SpaThe UPS StoreUnited States ofAmerica - VAT-Mobile #135Wingstop #0159Venture Martial ArtsUS Renal CareNorthpoint Hair StudioKey BankKohl's (#1241)NorthShore UniversityLane Bryant (#4750)Health SystemPet Supplies PlusSoft SurroundingsPet PeoplePerfect Nails & HairQdoba Mexican Eats#002041-1Pho & GrillWynBurg CaféModern Hair & DesignSubway #5243[Formerly Rubino's]Soma IntimatesPro AmericanInsurancePlanet FitnessRita's Italian IceVeteran's LiquorSally Beauty #728XfinityNail Studio (#553)The Fresh FishCompanyShellTalbot'sPublix #1449Rainbow ApparelSprint Spectrum#111558VitalantU Smile Dental StudioNoodles & CO (#141)Wells Fargo Bank#140016Starbuck'sThe Fresh Market#106Sally Beauty #2447Sprint #7271Starbucks #5449Jack In The Box #8142Vivi Bubble TeaOffice Depot (#3272)Whole Foods #10207Sweet FrogThe Lash LoungeSubway #61195[Formerly St. FrancisHospital]Stretch ZoneCredit Union ofColoradoWendy's #4190Papa John's Pizza(#4258)Tiffany's Nails SpaThe Ski BumSynovus BankStop & Shop #651T-Mobile West LLC#0324Jimmy John'sPetco (#2403)Tobacco HutVictoria's SecretVerizonStop & Shop FuelingStationTuesday Morning#FTCO 253GoodyearQdoba Mexican Eats(#2537)Village SquareCleanersWhite Dog CaféWebster BankWalgreen's #6844Ross Dress For LessWendy's #11012Wild Birds UnlimitedWestfield BankWeight Watchers#41500Sally Beauty Supply(#10633)Zazu GiftsWilliams-SonomaWells Fargo Bank#144631Solutek SystemsWSFS BankZ-Ultimate DefenceStudiosSports Clips #CO 118KeyBankM&T BankYRC EnterpriseServicesSprouts FarmersMarket (#305)Starbucks (#5294)openclosedCurbside/takeoutopenTarget (T-1413)The JointT-Mobile (CO AU002790-553)closedUlta Beauty (#1027)Uncle Maddio'sCurbside/takeoutWells Fargo(BE#106004)Xfinity (Comcast#3350)vacant4
AmCap Tenant Base Snapshot, As of 6/1/20National vs InlineOpen vs Closed1Paid/Not Paid For May1%4.4%31.4%22%2.7%42.4%45%55%National1 Defined by store countInline19%58%OpenClosedCurbside Only/BankVacant64.2%NationalsPaid54.5%InlineNot PaidPartial5
Who paid their rent?% PAID BY TYPE, AMCAP TENANTS1INDUSTRY APRIL COLLECTIONS PER GREEN STREET100%100%90%90%80%80%70%70%50%40%% n Street Advisors, Strip Center Sector Update, June 1, 20201 BY STORE COUNT6
The Paradox of SizeShopping centers rely upon a mix of large national tenants and a sprinkling of smaller local storeconcepts. Historically, the national tenants have credit, mostly good, while the smaller ones mayhave less, but are personally invested in their business.Over the years, shopping centers have evolved to include fewer local concepts and more nationalvendors. Think how a shopping center looks the same in Athens, Georgia or Athens, Ohio.Covid will have a lasting impact on tenant mix. The weak will fold, whether a Pier One or the localpizza guy who’s pizza was just not that good. At this time, over 2 million businesses are at risk of1going out of business immediately . By number, there will be a lot more small stores going underthan big ones; healthy, big retailers will get larger, and the landscape will continue to shift to nationalconcepts from local. This is true throughout American business, as reflected in the accompanyingchart. Small businesses continue to disappear, and with that, power and economics continues toaccrue to the larger players.100%80%National Collections by Number ofTenantsAprilMay60%40%20%58%64.2%0%Total Paid1 America’s Recovery Fund Coalition, June 2020As we saw during Covidtime, the larger players don’t always play nice. Many of them chose not to pay rent, orchose to argue for greatly revised terms, even some who were open for business. What the industry ended upwith looks similar to AmCap’s experience, as seen to the left.This was clearly a case of “we are big so we can get what we want.” As the landscape evolves coming out ofthe downturn, landlords will continue to face the conundrum of whether to rent to a smaller, conceivably riskierlocal operator, or to the safer but more powerful national tenant. Will future behavior be more like what wesaw during Covidtime, when those tenants feel at liberty to exercise their might?This reinforces the need for a focus on the fundamentals: strong location, strong market, strong grocer as youranchor, strong operator. Those shopping centers will be sought out by nationals and locals alike. Weakerlocations will struggle to fill vacancy, and those landlords will have little bargaining power.7
The Center of the Future:Essential plus E-commerce nicationsHardware/AutoRestaurantsE-commerce me ImprovementCenterof theFuture24/7/365“Consumer behavior is changing, and COVID-19 is forcing retail companies to innovate not just for today but for the customers of tomorrow, as well.”Rachel Elias Wein, “Four Predictions for Post-Pandemic Retail Success,” April 3, 2020.*Every state defined essential differently, so in some locations this list may vary.8
The Pipeline: Something Needs To GiveSeller expectations have not resetDebt/Cap spreads have moved some for value-add, but not muchDebt/Cap SpreadCoreLowHighPre-COVID2.7 bps2.6 bpsCurrent Estimate2.5 bps2.5 bpsDebt/Cap SpreadValue AddLowHighPre-COVID2.6 bps2.8 bpsCurrent Estimate2.7 bps3.0 bpsBased on AmCap estimates comparing low cost debt to low cap rate, higher cost debt to higher cap rate.Distressed opportunities will slowly emerge. There will be forbearance for zombies, whether companies or landlords, similar to whatwas seen in Japan and Europe over prior decades. Expect patient lenders through 2020. Forbearance plays a role, but its not the onlystory. Tired landlords seeking liquidity may be the precursor to any wave of distressed.Investors need to be creative and selective. They cannot just be capital providers - everyone has capital. Provide a solution. The dealsare there, they just need to be pried loose, like candy from the hand of a child.9
The AnswersHere’s how we think the near future just might look:1) We’ll be ready for COVID-19, v2.0, and no one will care as much. America has a strange capacity for inuring itself to tragedy.2) At-home grocery delivery fades away along with COVID-19 - hopefully by September.3) Meal delivery gets more expensive, enjoying a fading value proposition as diners venture forth into the world.4) Click-and-collect blossoms across retail. Cruise the parking lot, fill your trunk with groceries, pick up some wine and a pillow to replace the one the dog ate, allwithout leaving your car.5) You will have a candlelit dinner at a white-clothed table, in that same parking lot.6) Gyms will be open and busy as everyone continues to fulfill New Year’s resolutions, but with clean hands and reservations. No showers before returning to thehome office.7) There will be casualties in retail – but seriously, it will be like cleaning the basement the first week of Covidtime. Out with the old and in with the new. Newconcepts and new uses will thrive, and the media will talk about new things instead of re-hashing Retail Armageddon stories.8) Last-mile fulfillment takes up residence at your local power center and/or shopping center. Watch that empty junior anchor or movie theater transform.9) Running to get a Jersey Mike’s #7 (Mike’s Way) for lunch at your local shopping center will be a happy (and needed) respite from your new home office.10) The shopping center is not going away. You’ve probably been to one already!10
Contact UsWe are happy to share our thoughtsand perspectives in more detail.Stephen ChaseManaging Directorschase@amcap.com203-327-200111
Longhorn Steakhouse #5309 Great Clips King Soopers #40 Wadsworth Liquor & Wine First Choice Evaluations Starbucks #5293CO. . Montgomery Village Beer & Wine. Walgreens NorthShore University Health System Lane Bryant (#
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