Analysis Of ALEKS Placement Test

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Analysis ofALEKS Placement TestROGER MOURAD (MOU@WCCNET.EDU)&LAN NGUYEN (LATNGUYEN@WCCNET.EDU)INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH AND ANALYTICSWASHTENAW COMMUNITY COLLEGE

OVERVIEW1. Background2. Goals of the study3. Data/Method4. Results5. Discussion

1. BackgroundRecent research and debates about effectiveness of DevelopmentalUnnecessary delay causing dropout, cost in time and moneyEfficacy of placement test as sole criterion Placed students lower than their potential High school GPA improved the accuracy of placementInitiatives to use multiple measuresfor placementBelfied, C. R., & Crosta, P. M. (2012)Hughes, K. L., & Scott-Clayton, J. (2011)Scott-Clayton, J. (2012)Bahr, P.R., Orians, E. L., & Schanker, J.B. (2016)

SnapshotWhat happens to WCC students who are initially placed in a developmentalMath level:Fall 2010 new students (n 1960)Tracked over 6 years of elapsed time

WCC: Percent of students who eventually took at least college levelMath course (level 3) by initial Dev. Math placement65%43%47%Level 0Level 1Level 2

WCC: Percent of Dev. Math students who graduated and/or transferredto a university by initial Math placementMath Level at Entry54%34%12%Level 0After 2 yearsLevel 147%35%13%After 4 yearsLevel 242%16%College levelAbove College Level53%59%30%40%College Level: Level 3 Above College Level: above Level 3After 6 years68%69%77%

2. Goals of the study Examine the validity of ALEKS as placement test using WCCdata How to quantify the evidence of effectiveness of ALEKS as aplacement test? Use the same method as national studies Explore other measures w.r.t. predictive capabilities tostudent performance

3. Methodo Estimate strength of correlation between initial ALEKS test score and finalgrade points of first math courses (Correlation of Determination, or R-Square)How well does ALEKS score predict grade in a student’s first math course?o Estimate Placement Accuracy rates and Error rates (Decision model) as indexesof evaluating effectiveness of current cut scoresThree reference courses: MTH 169, MTH 176, and MTH 180o Estimate strength of correlation between ACT math, HSGPA, SAT math, ALEKSscores and measures of first term students performance (Correlation ofDetermination)

4. DataEntering students Winter, Spring/Summer, and Fall of 2017(2017 calendar year)Samples vary by analyses Valid ALEKS scores: reported within one month semesterbegins. Full ALEKS sample: 1,290 students, 610 students took mathcourses in the first term Course samples: initial ALEKS score math grade Samples of all other test score than ALEKS

5. ResultsData summary: ALEKS score distribution65% of students inplacement sample placed inDevelopmental courses, usingcurrent cut score (ALEKS 30)

Data summary: average ALEKS score by subgroupAverage ALEKS score by subgroupsCertificateAssociateTransfer OnlyAssociate/TransferCertificate/TransferReceived PellDid not receive PellBlackHispanicOther/UnknownWhiteAsian25-5020-24 19FemaleMale0102030405060708090100

Correlation between ALEKS score and course grade:Average ALEKS score of students receiving a grade of C or higher/grade below C, bycourse58.451.545.1ALEKS .77.1Math 067Math 094Math 097Math 160Math 169Axis TitleGrade of C-or-higherMath 176Grade of Below CMath 125Math 180

Correlation between ALEKS score and course grade:ALEKS scoreAverage ALEKS score of students receiving a grade of B or higher/grade below B, bycourse62.751.733.4 33.618.3 19.821.2 19.4Math 094Math 09737.840.846.034.9 33.141.98.5 7.0Math 067Math 125Grade of B or higherMath 160Math 169Grade below BMath 176Math 180

Correlation between ALEKS score and course grade:Low strength of relationshipPercentage of variation of course grade explained by ALEKS score34%8%4%MTH 0671%MTH 0943%MTH 0971%MTH 1252%3%MTH 160MTH 169MTH 176MTH 180

Placement Accuracy Rate and Error RatePlacement accuracy rates (College Board, ACT, CCRC)Decision model (Sawyer, 1989,1996)No placement rule can avoid making some mistakesAccuracy rate - correct decisionError rate - incorrect decisionunderestimate/overestimate

A decision model: 4 possible outcomesDPredicted successfulFalse negativeTrue positive(under placed)Placement groupA(accurately placed in college level)CPredicted unsuccessfulTrue NegativeFalse Positive(Over placed)(accurately placed in lower level)Cut score KBelow cutoffBAbove cutoff

ProcedureStepSampleEstimation sample1.2.VariableALEKS scoresALEKS students enrolled in areference math course in firstsemester:MATH 169: Inter. Alg. (n 75)MATH 176: College. Alg.(n 52)MATH 180: Pre-Calculus (n 33)Final grades:(Earn B orhigherEarn C orhigher)Placement sample:Entire ALEKS group: n 1290Only ALEKSscoresModelLogistic RegressionP(x) P(Y 1 X x) (1 e-α-βx )-1Where Y 1 if student issuccessful, 0 if a student isunsuccessfulX is the student’s Alek testscoreExtrapolation to score belowcut score to get pred.probability of success for eachof test score value.ResultsPrediction equation(intercepts α andregressioncoefficients β)Est. Proportions of 4placement outcomes(Accuracy rate, Errorrate)

MATH 169: Predicted proportion of students associatedwith 4 possible outcomes, using current WCC cut scoreGrade of B or higherD (underplaced).43Correctly placedACorrectly placedC.33.18Grade of C or higherD (underplaced).48B (overplaced).065.28Correctly placed.20ACorrectly placedCB (overplaced).043Accuracy rate .18 .33 .51Accuracy rate .20 .28 .48Error rate .065 .43 .49Error rate .043 .48 .52

Summary of Predicted proportion of students associated with 4possible placement outcomes using current cut score, by courseCriteria ofSuccessCorrelation (r)MATH 169B or higherC or higher0.16MATH 176B or higherC or higher0.29MATH 180B or higherC or 05280.9460.05280.007300.5690.4230.576250.423

Accuracy rate curves for MATH 169, MATH 176, MATH 180

Relationship to placement outcomes Accuracy rate positively associated with bivariate correlationcoefficient between test score and course grade. Low proportion of students below cut score increases TRUEPOSITIVE RATE (students who score above cut off and arepredicted to be successful in the course)

Relationship to placement outcomesDACBSuccessNot successPlacementCut score

Explore the association of other test scores withmath/college performance Matched ACT math, SAT math, or HSGPA scorewith first semester outcome data (3 semesters) Bivariate linear regression models Estimated Coefficients of determination(Percent of variability of outcomevariable explained by a test score) Limitation:HGPAn 215ACTn 273SATn 1074Not have enough students withmultiple test scoresALEKSn 1290First semesterOutcomes: Level math grade Semester creditsearned Semester GPA

Percent of variance of math grades explained by each of testscoresPredicted Success36.0%10.9%9.0%4.4%6.8%4.4%1.0%Math Level 15.8%0.0%Math Level 2AleksACT mathNew SAT math0.2%Math Level 3HS GPA

Predicted SuccessPercent of variance of college performance (SemesterCredits earned, GPA) explained by each of test AleksSemGPAACT mathNew SAT mathHS GPA

6. ConclusionsResults consistent with national studies Low predictive capability for math grade in developmental courses Accuracy rates for course placement are not high (except MTH180 w.r.t. Bcriteria) Accuracy rate for B criterion is better than C criterion Many students placed below their capabilitiesHigh school GPA potentially a better predictor for math andcollege performance (need more data to confirm)Results of analysis of COMPASS is similar to those of ALEKS

6. DiscussionApproaches to improve the accuracy for course placement Consider multiple measures (MM) for placement More information --- better prediction Comm. Colleges have been using MM: California North Carolina Virginia Michigan: Mid Michigan Comm. CollegeApproaches to improve the effectiveness of developmental education

Discussion

Examine the validity of ALEKS as placement test using WCC data How to quantify the evidence of effectiveness of ALEKS as a placement test? Use the same method as national studies Explore other measu

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