What Is Driving Ethiopia's Ethnic Conflicts? - Africa Portal

What is driving Ethiopia’sethnic conflicts?Semir YusufThe rise in violent ethnic conflict in Ethiopia in recent years can largely be linked to thesharp increase in militant ethnic nationalism against a backdrop of state and party fragility.Decades of exclusivist political arrangements have contributed to a steady rise in ethnicconsciousness, with the state and ruling party becoming increasingly incoherent. This hasincreased ethnic disagreement. High-level negotiations aided by nationwide and inclusivedialogue could help stabilise the country.EAST AFRICA REPORT 28 NOVEMBER 2019

Key findings ontending ethnic mobilisation and theCincoherence of the state and ruling party havecontributed to the rise in ethnic-based violencein Ethiopia, especially since 2018. thnic mobilisation has persisted in the countryEfor at least five decades, either excluded ornurtured by successive political systems.Especially since 1991, the empowering anddisempowering effects of, and the simmeringtensions within, the centralised ethno federalsystem continued unabated until unbridledethnic movements finally engulfed state andparty institutions, rendering them weak andincoherent. Fragile institutions facilitated therise of violent communal contentions. he state has suffered in three ways as a resultTof protest movements. Its institutions havebeen weakened by protesting mobs, fracturingcommand and control within key sectors. Rulesgoverning the relationship between federaland regional states have become open torenegotiation. Finally, the line between upholdingrule of law and order, and sliding back toauthoritarianism, has not been clearly defined. he ruling party in turn became dividedTalong its ethnic components. Ideological andmethodological differences, as well as thosestemming from contrasting constituencies, havemade collaborative efforts to restore peace in thecountry a formidable challenge.RecommendationsI nternal negotiations within the ruling party, theEthiopian People’s Revolutionary DemocraticFront, should aim to bring order into andamong each constituent party. Inter-partynegotiations should be candid and thorough,and based on the principle of reciprocity. Thenegotiations must include a concrete plan tosecure peace in each region, with cascadingpositive effects in the country as a whole.Inclusive national dialogue should take placeto find ways to reconstitute the state tomeet the reasonable demands of majorpolitical groups.The state should reinvent itself by ensuringits security structures can take action, butwith due consideration to professionalismand the basic principles of human rights.Templates for doing so should be developedat different levels.2WHAT IS DRIVING ETHIOPIA’S ETHNIC CONFLICTS? he government should work on fixingTthe ailing economy. The focus must be onimmediate job creation for the youth. ivil society organisations need to inject nonCethnic and cross-cutting agendas that bringtogether diverse groups of people to achievecollective goals. They should also coordinatetheir activities for maximum effect. he international community should stepTup its financial and technical support for thegovernment. Technical support includingconsultation and training in the areas ofestablishing law and order, and the preventionand resolution of conflicts, should beescalated and diversified.

IntroductionEthiopia’s political liberalisation, underway since April2018, gave hope to many that the country was movingtowards a better future than its autocratic past.1 Thiseuphoria was however dimmed with the parallel rise ofviolent ethnic conflicts across the country.Although generally subsiding now,2 these conflicts haverocked different parts of Ethiopia. Well over a thousandpeople have died,3 with close to three million displaced.Ethiopia had the highest number of internally displacedpeople in the world in 2018.4This report tackles the problem of violence incontemporary Ethiopia.5 It explains it based on insightsfrom the literature on ethnic conflicts and field workcarried out for that purpose. It argues that the recentupswing in ethnic violence is mainly due to a sharp risein contending ethno-nationalisms6 in the context ofperceived party and state fragility, i.e., incoherenceand brittleness.The two factors create a self-reinforcing cycle. Withthe playing out of more contending nationalisms,institutional fragility worsens. And as institutions becomefragile, nationalist mobilisation intensifies and becomesmore conflictual.Paradoxically, ethnic federalism bothempowered and disempoweredethnic groups in EthiopiaThe role of elites is factored in the analysis within thecontext of institutional/ ideological dynamics.Ethiopia’s economic downturn has also complicated thescene by driving ethnic-based grievances and generatingopportunistic conflict.The analysis provided in this report is confined to themajor underlying factors that are common to mostconflicts. Institutional, ideological and psychologicalfactors are stressed more than others. It should be notedhowever, that each conflict case could have its ownpeculiar qualities not necessarily captured by the modelpresented here.This report urges policymakers and social forces tochange the institutional and nationalist context that isreinforcing and reproducing this conflict. Among otherthings, the ruling party needs to renegotiate its plansin ways that make influential members willing to worktogether towards the goal of transforming the country intoa stable democracy. It should reactivate state power andrestore law and order in the country.At the same time, nationalist forces should reorient theirpriorities and negotiate ways to accommodate all nationaland ethnic interests. In the process they should help tonedown antagonistic nationalist rhetoric.It is important to note that this analysis should notlead one to assume that Ethiopia has descended or isdescending into chaos. Despite widespread violence,many people still lead ordinary lives, not necessarilydirectly affected by the recent conflicts. The conflictcentred analysis offered here does not imply that thecountry is heading towards disaster. The report aims toaddress the root causes of actual and potential conflictsin the country, without assuming that the trend willnecessarily continue unabated or that it will engulf theentire country.Institutional legacy andcontending nationalismsContending nationalisms are partly byproducts ofinstitutional legacy. Institutional arrangements put inplace during the imperial era produced reactive ethnonationalist movements.7 Attempts at nation buildingthrough educational, religious, political and militaryinstitutions were perceived as schemes of ‘nationdestroying’8 by some non-Amharic-speaking elites.These elites, inspired by worldwide decolonisation andMarxist-Leninist movements, drove a strong countermovement that was ethno-nationalist in form andcontent.9 The ethno-nationalist struggles turned into allout war with the Marxist-Leninist and Ethiopian nationalistregime of the Dergue (1974–1991). The ethno-nationalistswon the war, and came into power in 1991.One of the victors, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front(TPLF), set out to redress the past ethnic subjugationby remapping Ethiopia along ethnic lines. Ethnicfederalism was put in place as a remedy to Ethiopia’sethnic problem.However the federation was beset with ironies. On theone hand it gave legislative, executive and judicial powersEAST AFRICA REPORT 28 NOVEMBER 20193

to the regions, and put local elites in place to rule them.This led to a sense of empowerment among somemarginalised groups.10 However that same systemwas tightly controlled by the ruling party, through itshierarchical party structure.This institutional arrangement led to two adverseoutcomes. First, it created the feeling that Ethiopia’smarginalised communities were still under a rulingclique that hailed from one ethnic group.11 It alsocreated a sharp division between ‘natives’ (and thus‘owners’ of regions) and ‘settlers’.12 Hence, ethnicfederalism both empowered and disempoweredEthiopia’s ethnic groups.From 2015, simmering populargrievances scaled up into a seriesof ethnic-based movementsSuch a paradoxically implemented federal systemalso contributed to the proliferation of nationalismsof various sorts. Ethnic nationalists mobilised theirconstituencies both within and outside the frameworkestablished by the regime. They used the ethnicallycharged environment and federal structure to nurtureethnic sentiments.At the same time they capitalised on the centralisedand authoritarian tendencies of the regime to inflameethnic-based anti-regime mobilisation. On theirpart, Ethiopian nationalists also galvanised theirconstituencies against the ruling Ethiopian People’sRevolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), which theysaw as anti-Ethiopian.13Nationalist grievances and mobilisation continued tosimmer during the EPRDF’s era, resulting in multiplelines of conflict. The first line pitted opposition groupsagainst the regime. Anti-regime struggles includedthe insurgency waged by rebel groups such as theOromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Ogaden NationalLiberation Front.Although they were too weak to directly effectmajor changes to the order of politics set up by thegovernment, they managed to inflame nationalistsentiments among their respective constituencies.4WHAT IS DRIVING ETHIOPIA’S ETHNIC CONFLICTS?Second, there persisted violent conflicts between variousethnic groups over a wide range of issues.14 Theseincluded differences over killil (region or federal unit) bordersand grazing lands, as well as power struggles amongcommunal groups to control regions. The conflicts wereboth causes and effects of the escalation of contendingethnic mobilisation.Finally, debates continued between ethnic and Ethiopiannationalists on such fundamental issues as the history,identity and future destiny of the country.Above the cacophony of ethnic and anti-regime agitationsprevailed a semblance of order and overall stability.15Violent inter-ethnic conflicts erupted occasionally over 27years, but they were usually brought under control andseemed relatively low in intensity. The ideology and policiesof the party reigned supreme, and when digressionsoccurred, coercive tactics kept a facade of stability.That started changing in 2015. Nationalist mobilisationspeaked as anti-regime social movements increasedtheir agitation. Protests rocked Ethiopian cities andtowns. Long-simmering popular grievances overadministrative, political and economic problems scaledup into a series of ethnic-based movements, especiallywhen organisational challenges were overcome (looselynetworked cells mushroomed nationwide) and politicalopportunities arose.16Growing urbanisation and cyber technology contributedto the organisation of protests. Contradictions inthe EPRDF intensified as elements in some of itsconstituent units challenged the hegemony of the TPLFand set out to decide their fate independently, or withthe social movements.In the process, the TPLF lost its control over theinstitutional levers of the EPRDF. The process gave a clearvictory to the reformists, ushering in a series of politicalliberalisation measures.Political liberalisation opened doors for suppressedethnic-based agitations and contentions. Conflict nowraged unbridled in all corners of the country.17 Thus manyof Ethiopia’s contemporary conflicts have roots in recenthistory and involve ethno-nationalist mobilisations. They areescalated by the advent of new actors, intensified use ofcyber technology, and quite importantly, the reconfigurationof institutional arrangements in the political system.