RETHINKING DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

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U N I T E D N AT I O N S C O N F E R E N C E O N T R A D E A N D D E V E L O P M E N THOCHSCHULE FÜR TECHNIK UND WIRTSCHAFT BERLINRETHINKING DEVELOPMENTSTRATEGIES AFTERTHE FINANCIAL CRISISVolume I: Making the Case for Policy Space

RETHINKING DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIESAFTER THE FINANCIAL CRISISVolume I: Making the Case for Policy SpaceEdited byAlfredo CalcagnoSebastian DullienAlejandro Márquez-VelázquezNicolas MaystreJan PrieweUNITED NATIONSNew York and Geneva, 2015

iiNoteThe opinions expressed in this publication are those of theauthors and are not to be taken as the official views of theUNCTAD secretariat or its member States.The designations employed and the presentation of the materialdo not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of theUnited Nations concerning the legal status of any country,territory, city or area, or of authorities or concerning thedelimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.Material in this publication may be freely quoted or reprinted,but acknowledgement is requested, together with a copyof the publication containing the quotation or reprint to besent to the Publications Assistant, Division on Globalizationand Development Strategies, UNCTAD, Palais des Nations,CH-1211 Geneva 10; e-mail: gdsinfo@unctad.org.Symbols of United Nations documents are composed of capitalletters combined with figures. Mention of such a symbolindicates a reference to a United Nations document.This publication has been edited externally.UNCTAD/GDS/MDP/2015/1UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATIONSales No. E.15.II.D.9ISBN 978-92-1-112894-9eISBN 978-92-1-057556-0Copyright United Nations, 2015All rights reserved

Rethinking Development Strategies after the Financial Crisis – Volume I: Making the Case for Policy SpaceiiiTable of contentsPageExplanatory notes. viAbbreviations and acronyms. viiAbout the authors. viiiINTRODUCTIONAlfredo Calcagno, Sebastian Dullien, Alejandro Márquez-Velázquez, Nicolas Maystre and Jan Priewe. 1RETHINKING DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES AFTER THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISAlfredo Calcagno. 9Abstract. 9Introduction. 9I. A “big crisis”. 10A. Causes and nature of the crisis. 10B. Inadequate policy responses. 12II. The case for a reorientation of development policies. 12A. The global economic environment after the crisis. 12B. A more balanced approach on the demand side. 15III. The need for policy space. 19A. Rediscovering industrial policies. 19B. Foreign capital flows and domestic sources of finance. 20C. Fiscal space. 22IV. Concluding remarks. 23Notes . 24References. 24SEVEN STRATEGIES FOR DEVELOPMENT IN COMPARISONJan Priewe. 27Abstract. 27What is a strategy for development and why do we need one?. 27I. Traditional strategic concepts. 28A. Washington Consensus. 28B. Plain neo-liberalism. 29C. Good governance. 30D. Millennium Development Goals . 31E. Outward development and export-led growth. 32F. Structural change: Towards industrialization or commodities and services?. 33II. Strategic concepts based on macroeconomic policies. 34III. Learning from success and failure – growth performance in the long run. 38IV. Conclusions. 41Notes . 43References. 43

ivRESTORING THE DEVELOPMENT DIMENSION OF BRETTON WOODSEric Helleiner. 45Abstract. 45Introduction. 45I. Growing discontent. 46II. American goals for Bretton Woods. 48III. Inclusive multilateralism and North-South dialogue. 51IV. The fate of the development content of Bretton Woods. 53References. 54THE MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP AND EAST ASIAN MIRACLE LESSONSVeerayooth Kanchoochat. 55Abstract. 55Introduction. 55I. Three approaches to the middle-income trap. 56A. Getting education and institutions right. 57B. Changing export composition through comparative advantage. 57C. Industrial upgrading through State intervention. 57II. Education and institutions as magic bullets?. 58A. Education needs to link with industrial targets . 58B. Growth-enhancing governance is more relevant than “good governance”. 58III. Structural transformation through comparative advantage?. 59A. Long-term economic development requires structural transformation . 59B. Changing export compositions usually goes against comparative advantage. 60IV. Industrial policy without yardsticks and macroeconomic stability?. 60A. East Asian policies entailed variation in carrot-and-stick incentives. 60B. Macroeconomic stability matters, but in unconventional ways . 61V. The middle-income trap: Future research agenda . 62Notes . 64References. 64THE ROLE OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIESRobert H. Wade. 67Abstract. 67Introduction. 67I. The return of industrial policy?. 69II. The developmental State Mark II. 71III. “New structural economics” and industrial policy. 72IV. Political and organizational determinants of industrial policy. 74A. State-society relations. 74B. Making effective industrial policy bureaucracies. 75V. The future of industrial policy. 76Notes . 78References. 78

vTHE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AS A TARGET OF MACROECONOMIC POLICYRoberto Frenkel and Martín Rapetti. 81Abstract. 81Introduction. 81I. SCRER and economic performance. 82A. Empirical evidence. 82B. Mechanisms. 83II. SCRER management. 86A. SCRER and external equilibrium . . 86B. SCRER and internal equilibrium. 87III. Conclusions. 89Notes . 90References. 90DEFENDING DEVELOPMENT SOVEREIGNTY: THE CASE FOR INDUSTRIAL POLICYAND FINANCIAL REGULATION IN THE TRADING REGIMERachel Denae Thrasher and Kevin P. Gallagher. 93Abstract. 93I. Crisis-era protectionism and the expanding trade regime. 93II. The soft foundations of soft protectionism. 95III. The threat to financial stability and industrial development policies. 98A. Tariffs. 98B. Import licensing and bans. 99C. Tax-based export incentives. 100D. Performance requirements. 100E. Financial regulation . . 101F. Public welfare and “green” measures . 101G. Public procurement . 102IV. Alternatives for emerging market and developing countries. 103Notes . 104References. 104

viExplanatory notesClassification by country or commodity groupThe classification of countries in this publication has been adopted solely for the purposes of statistical oranalytical convenience and does not necessarily imply any judgement concerning the stage of developmentof a particular country or area.The terms “country” / “economy” refer, as appropriate, also to territories or areas.References to “Latin America” in the text or tables include the Caribbean countries unless otherwise indicated.References to “sub-Saharan Africa” in the text or tables include South Africa unless otherwise indicated.Other notesReferences in the text to TDR are to the Trade and Development Report (of a particular year). For example,TDR 2014 refers to Trade and Development Report, 2014 (United Nations publication, sales no. E.14.II.D.4).References in the text to the United States are to the United States of America and those to the UnitedKingdom are to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.The term “dollar” ( ) refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise stated.The term “billion” signifies 1,000 million.The term “tons” refers to metric tons.Annual rates of growth and change refer to compound rates.Use of a dash (–) between dates representing years, e.g. 1988–1990, signifies the full period involved,including the initial and final years.An oblique stroke (/) between two years, e.g. 2000/01, signifies a fiscal or crop year.Decimals and percentages do not necessarily add up to totals because of rounding.

viiAbbreviations and TOAssociation of South-East Asian NationsASEAN trade in goods agreementBretton WoodsBrazil, Russian Federation, India, China and

most recent books include The Forgotten Foundations of Bretton Woods (Cornell University Press, 2014) and The Status Quo Crisis: Global Financial Governance After the 2008 Meltdown (Oxford University Press, 2014).

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