The Outlook For Energy - CMU

2y ago
26 Views
3 Downloads
2.95 MB
40 Pages
Last View : 17d ago
Last Download : 2m ago
Upload by : Joao Adcock
Transcription

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040Dr. David KhemakhemCarnegie Mellon Electricity Industry CenterScott Energy Innovation InstitutePittsburgh, May 3, 2013This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changesin technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting FutureResults" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data andanalyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permissionof Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

Energy Outlook Model100 countries15 demandsectors20 fueltypestechnology & policyExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

CO2 Policies2030CO2 “Proxy” Cost 60 /tonExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

CO2 Policies2040CO2 “Proxy” Cost 10 /ton 15 /ton 20 /ton 80 /tonExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Global fundamentals

Population Trends Impacts Energy UsePopulationFertility Rate*Global Demographics*BillionChildren per WomanBillion98OECD9Africa7OtherNon OECDAge 65 ChinaIndia66Southeast AsiaLatin America65AfricaAge 15-644India3China3321Age 0-14OECD0201020202030204001960 1980 2000 2020 2040* Source: World Bank & United NationsExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy02010202020302040

Economic Growth Drives Energy DemandGDPEnergy DemandTrillion 2005 Quadrillion BTUs12512502010-2040 AAGR %100World2.8%2010-2040 AAGR %OtherNonOECD753.9%1000China 5.6%750501.8%25250United StatesExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyEnergySaved 2040

Tale of Two WorldsNon OECDOECDQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUs500500Other xonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyOil202020404003002001000200020202040

Energy Mix Continues to EvolveQuadrillion BTUs2250.8% 2040200Average Growth / Yr.2010 - %1.8%Solar / Wind /BiofuelsHydro / Geo0OilExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyGasCoalNuclearBiomass

Electricity Generation Leads GrowthEnergy Demand by SectorQuadrillion 0ElectricityGenerationExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyIndustrialTransportationRes/Comm

Residential/commercial

Household Growth Drives Residential Demand2040Million Households750204060020104503001500EuropeOECDN. /CaspianMiddleEastOther NonOECD

Residential/Commercial OutlookBy SectorResidential Energy IntensityFuel DemandQuadrillion BTUsMillion BTUs per PersonQuadrillion BTUs15035150North urope Gas25525IndiaOil020002020ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy204002000202020400200020202040

Industrial

Industry Energy Demand IncreasesQuadrillion obiles100TextilesSteelManufacturing &IndustryLiquidFuels50Energy IndustryOther01990ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyNatural GasCoalLubricantsAsphaltAgriculture20152040

Industrial Energy DemandBy FuelBy RegionQuadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUs250250Market HeatElectricity200Rest ina50Oil02000ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy20202040OECD0200020202040

Electricity generation

Electricity Demand by RegionNon OECDOECDThousand TWhThousand TWh2525Other Non OECD2020Russia/CaspianSoutheast Asia1515Middle EastAfricaOther OECD1010IndiaEurope OECD5China5North America02000ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy202020400200020202040

Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by RegionElectricity GenerationGrowth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040Quadrillion BTUsQuadrillion BTUs300120Renewables25090NuclearNon lOECDGasOil02000ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy-3020202040Non OECDOECD

Global Electricity Generation Mix EvolvesBy GenerationGlobal Capacity Utilizedk nd & Solar2005Other RenewablesOil02000ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy020202040NuclearWindSolar

Transportation

Transportation DemandSector DemandDemand by 252045Heavy Duty15‘10301015Light Duty02000502020ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy2040APNAEuropeLAMEROW

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix ChangesPowertrain TechnologyMillions of Vehicles2010500400Advanced*CNGLPG300Conv. DieselConv. Gasoline2001000NorthAmericaEuropeOECDExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyOtherOECDChinaIndiaMiddle East*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesLatinAmericaOther NonOECD

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix ChangesPowertrain TechnologyMillions of Vehicles2025500400Advanced*CNGLPG300Conv. DieselConv. Gasoline2001000NorthAmericaEuropeOECDExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyOtherOECDChinaIndiaMiddle East*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesLatinAmericaOther NonOECD

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix ChangesPowertrain TechnologyMillions of Vehicles2040500PHV/EV400Full HybridCNGLPG300Diesel ConvMogas Conv2001000NorthAmericaEuropeOECDExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyOtherOECDChinaIndiaMiddle East*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric VehiclesLatinAmericaOther NonOECD

Light Duty Vehicle Sales & EfficiencyAnnual New Car Sales by TypeIncremental Vehicle Efficiency GainsMillion CarsMiles per Gallon15020Elec/PHV47 MPGFull Hybrid125Natural GasConv. Diesel100Hybrid15Conv. Gasoline75Downsizing10Body & Accessories505Average27 MPG25Powertrain02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy02010202020302040

Heavy Duty Transportation EfficiencyNew Truck EfficiencyEfficiency Impact% Improvement, 2010-2040MBDOE7545TruckSizeDemand w/o ics 5-'40ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyRegionalOtherImpact201020252040

Transportation Fuel MixFuel DemandGrowth in Demand from 2010 to 2040MBDOEMBDOE1575Non OECDOther12Natural Gas60OECDFuel OilJet 0-62020ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy2040GasolineDieselJet FuelFuel OilNaturalGasOther

Gas Into TransportationBy Sector2040 by RegionBCFDBCFD1810Rail15812Marine6946Heavy Duty2302000LightDuty20102020ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy203020400APNALAMEEURCAF

Supply

Remaining Oil ResourceCrude and Condensate (BBO)Source: IEA 1,000 1,100 1,100Russia/Caspian 100EuropeNorth America 650 150Middle East 200 4,300Latin AmericaGlobalExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyAfricaAsia Pacific

Liquids SupplySupply by TypeResource*MBDOETBOBiofuelsOther Liquids1201006NGLs5Oil Sands80Tight Oil4RemainingResource603402ConventionalCrude & Condensate20020001* Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011DeepwaterCumulativeProduction02010ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy2020203020402040

Global Gas ResourceSource: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD6.24.31.64.9Russia/Caspian*EuropeOECDNorth America4.51000 TCFMiddle East302.62520Unconventional2.515Asia PacificAfricaLatin America10Conventional50WorldExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyOver 200 years coverage atcurrent demand

Natural Gas Supply and Demand ShiftsGlobal Gas DemandGlobal Gas SupplyBCFDBCFD600600500Afr.ROW500Rest of WorldUnconventional400North 0200200100100Rest of WorldConventionalNorth America Conventional02010 APMEExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for EnergyLAAFR ROW 20400201020252040

Growth in Unconventional ProductionProduction by TypeProduction by RegionBCFDBCFD200200Rest of World150150Asia Pacific100Shale50100Americas50Coal Bed MethaneTight02000ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy202020400200020202040

North America Energy BalanceQuadrillion BTUs5040OilNet ExportsNet Imports30Regional Supply20100201050Total Energy Balance20252040GasNet Exports125100Net ImportsNet Exports4075Regional Supply305020Regional Supply251002010020102025ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy204020252040

Asia Pacific Energy BalanceQuadrillion BTUs90Oil60Net Imports30Domestic Supply020109020252040Total Energy Balance350300GasNet Imports25020060150Domestic Supply100300201050020102025ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy204020252040

ConclusionsExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

Bio for David Khemakhem (k’mak’m) David Khemakhem is an Energy and Technology Advisor at ExxonMobil.He is a member of the Corporate Strategic Planning Department, where heis responsible for assessing energy trends, emerging energy technologies,and related market and public policy issues around the world. He is one ofthe principal contributors to ExxonMobil’s long-term global Energy Outlook.He is also active in communicating ExxonMobil’s view of the future ofenergy to a wide variety of audiences. David has worked with Exxon then ExxonMobil since 1997 in numeroustechnical and management assignments covering activities in the UnitedStates and around the world. He started his career with Exxon Production Research Company in thearea of Wellbore Design and eventually became Team Lead for the WellIntegrity Group at ExxonMobil Upstream Research. In 2001, he transferred to ExxonMobil Production Company as aSubsurface Engineer overseeing completion and workover operations inColorado, Wyoming, California and South Texas. In 2003, David relocated to Qatar, where he spent six years in a variety ofassignments, including Drilling and Completions Engineering Manager. Inthis role he led a team of engineers working on RasGas’s 14 drilling rigsduring the development of the North Field. In 2009, David transferred back to Houston, joining the ExxonMobilUpstream Research Company as Well Performance Manager and then in2010, he became the Unconventional Gas Recovery Manager. The following year, in 2011, David moved to ExxonMobil Headquarters tojoin the Corporate Strategic Planning team where he is helping in thedevelopment of the Energy Outlook for 2013 and beyond. David holds a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University ofMinnesota.Text in Box: Short Bio

Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy. Transportation. Demand by Region MBDOE 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 . Annual New Car Sales by Type Million Cars ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy. 0 15 30 45 60 75 . Microsoft PowerPoint - EM Outlook - CMU Presentation - May 3, 2013

Related Documents:

May 02, 2018 · D. Program Evaluation ͟The organization has provided a description of the framework for how each program will be evaluated. The framework should include all the elements below: ͟The evaluation methods are cost-effective for the organization ͟Quantitative and qualitative data is being collected (at Basics tier, data collection must have begun)

Silat is a combative art of self-defense and survival rooted from Matay archipelago. It was traced at thé early of Langkasuka Kingdom (2nd century CE) till thé reign of Melaka (Malaysia) Sultanate era (13th century). Silat has now evolved to become part of social culture and tradition with thé appearance of a fine physical and spiritual .

On an exceptional basis, Member States may request UNESCO to provide thé candidates with access to thé platform so they can complète thé form by themselves. Thèse requests must be addressed to esd rize unesco. or by 15 A ril 2021 UNESCO will provide thé nomineewith accessto thé platform via their émail address.

̶The leading indicator of employee engagement is based on the quality of the relationship between employee and supervisor Empower your managers! ̶Help them understand the impact on the organization ̶Share important changes, plan options, tasks, and deadlines ̶Provide key messages and talking points ̶Prepare them to answer employee questions

Dr. Sunita Bharatwal** Dr. Pawan Garga*** Abstract Customer satisfaction is derived from thè functionalities and values, a product or Service can provide. The current study aims to segregate thè dimensions of ordine Service quality and gather insights on its impact on web shopping. The trends of purchases have

Bruksanvisning för bilstereo . Bruksanvisning for bilstereo . Instrukcja obsługi samochodowego odtwarzacza stereo . Operating Instructions for Car Stereo . 610-104 . SV . Bruksanvisning i original

Chính Văn.- Còn đức Thế tôn thì tuệ giác cực kỳ trong sạch 8: hiện hành bất nhị 9, đạt đến vô tướng 10, đứng vào chỗ đứng của các đức Thế tôn 11, thể hiện tính bình đẳng của các Ngài, đến chỗ không còn chướng ngại 12, giáo pháp không thể khuynh đảo, tâm thức không bị cản trở, cái được

Outlook 2013, Outlook 2016, or volume-licensed versions of Outlook 2019 Support for Outlook 2013, 2016, and volume-licensed versions of Outlook 2019 ends in December 2021. To continue using the Outlook integration after the end of 2021, make plans now to upgrade to the latest versions of Outlook and Windows. Outlook on the web