Fiscal Outcomes Of Various Real Estate Types: Aerotropolis

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Fiscal Outcomes of Various Real Estate Types:AerotropolisPresented for:ARC Community Resources CommitteeFebruary 10, 2021Presented by:Geoff KoskiPresidentNow d/b/a

Grounded in Real-World Conditions,Backed up by Insightful Research and AnalysisOur goal is to help clients maximize the benefits of their economic development and real estate activitieswithin five core capability areas:1. Real Estate Markets2. Development Economics3. Public Financing/Tax Increment Financing4. Economic Impacts5. Housing AnalysisInformed, Insightful, Innovative2

Presentation ContentsFiscal Outcomes of Various Real Estate Types KB Examples / Greatest Hits Example from Macon “Near West Air Cities” Combined Decade of Development (2010-2020) Fiscal Outcomes of a Decade of Development (2010-2020) Conclusions/Implications3

Recent Work4

Property Value ComparisonWalkableDowntownDistrictDowntown Woodstock 21.6 Acres151 Parcels3.4 Acre ParkThe Outlet Shoppes at AtlantaOutletCenter 48.81 Acres370,000 SF1,781 Parking Spaces5

Property Value ComparisonDowntown Woodstock 21.6 Acres Taxable Value: 77,920,398 3,607,426/AcreThe Outlet Shoppes at Atlanta 48.81 Acres Taxable Value: 13,381,648 274,158/Acre6

NorthThe entire Peachtree corridor occupies 3.6% of the city of Atlanta by land area, butaccounts for 32% of its overall tax digest. Per acre land values in the corridor overall are five times that of the rest of the city.7

NorthMidtown occupies roughly 0.8% of the city of Atlanta’s land area, butaccounts for over 10% of its tax digest. Properties in Midtown are worth almost 13-times the value of rest of thecity on a per-acre basis.8

Four scenarios of how Macon could grow andimplications for the city’s finances: Development on the edge of townNet: approx. 165,000 annually for the city Same development, located downtownNet: approx. 428,000 annuallyWhy?9

Four scenarios of how Macon could grow andimplications for the city’s finances: Development on the edge of townNet: approx. 165,000 annually for the city Same development, located downtownNet: approx. 428,000 annuallyWhy?Service Delivery CostsWith walkable premiums, potentially as much as 788,000 annually10

Near WestAir CitiesEast PointCollege ParkUnion CityEastPointUnionCityCollegeParkThis analysis,focused on thethree “near west”municipalities, isintended to providea “sample set” ofdata, for illustrativepurposes, toanalyze thefiscal/economictrends of thevarious land uses inthe Aerotropolisarea.Fiscal (tax) dataincludes onlyportions in FultonCo.11

Combined Near West Air CitiesIndustrial / FlexTotal Square Feet2010 – 2020Growth: 604(5.1% Avg. 20162017201820192020 YTDBased on data from CoStar12

Combined Near West Air CitiesRetailTotal Square Feet6,000,0005,182,3295,000,0002010 – 2020Growth: 7.3%(.7% Avg. 0020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 YTDBased on data from CoStar13

Combined Near West Air CitiesMulti-familyTotal Units16,00015,38114,70314,0002010 – 2020Growth: 4.6%(.5% Avg. 220132014201520162017201820192020 YTDBased on data from CoStar14

Combined Near West Air CitiesTotal Housing Units2010 – 2018Growth: 2.2%(.3% Avg. 018Based on data from US Census ACS 5-Year Estimates15

Combined Near West Air CitiesLand Use Growth 1%7.3%(.7% Avg. Annual)(5.1% Avg. Annual)Multi-familyGrowth:4.6%(.5% Avg. Annual)All HousingGrowth (2010-2018):2.2%(.3% Avg. Annual)16

Combined Near West Air CitiesTax Digest 3,500,000,000 3,000,000,000 2,500,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,500,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 02010Gross DigestIndustrial Digest2014Net M&O Digest"Other" Digest2016Residential DigestPersonal Property2019Commercial DigestBased on data from Georgia Dept. of Revenue Tax Digest Consolidated Summary17

Combined Near West Air Cities65%Land Use as a %of Gross Digest201956%55%48%45%NearWest AirCities Fulton Other2019Based on data from Georgia Dept. of Revenue Tax Digest Consolidated Summary18

Combined Near West Air Cities100%80%Tax Digest Growth2010-2019Net M&O DigestGross DigestCommercial DigestIndustrial DigestPersonal PropertyResidential Digest"Other" 40%Based on data from Georgia Dept. of Revenue Tax Digest Consolidated Summary19

Combined Near West Air CitiesReal PropertyValue/Acre 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0201020142016Net M&O DigestResidential DigestCommercial Digest2019Industrial DigestBased on data from Georgia Dept. of Revenue Tax Digest Consolidated Summary20

Fiscal Outcomes of Various Real Estate TypesConclusions/Implications Many cities struggle to relieve the tax burden on homeowners by increasing theircommercial tax base, however, the Combined Near West Air Cities are alreadymostly reliant upon non-residential uses. Due to market fluctuations, a diverse, balanced tax base is typically desired.Because non-residential values can be most volatile, an enhanced residentialbase is likely a desirable path. To increase value/acre fiscal performance efficiency, pursue higher densitymixed land use at strategic nodes.21

Fiscal Outcomes of Various Real Estate Types:AerotropolisPresented for:ARC Community Resources CommitteeFebruary 10, 2021Presented by:Geoff KoskiPresidentNow d/b/a

Real Property Value/Acre 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2010 2014 2016 2019 Net M&O Digest Residential Digest Commercial Digest Industrial Digest Combined Near West Air Cities Based on data from Georgia Dept. of Revenue Tax Digest Consolidated Summary 20

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