Local Build-out Of Energy Resources Of The Community .

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San Francisco LAFCoLocal Build-out of Energy Resources of the Community ChoiceAggregation ProgramJanuary 30, 2015

San Francisco LAFCoTable of ContentsEXECUTIVE SUMMARY . 1Task 1: Utilizing SFPUC for CPSF Power Procurement . 1SFPUC Power Procurement Evaluation.1CPSF Strategy and Plans .4Task 2: Timing/Economic Benefits of Local Build Out . 5Task 3: Local Build-Out Program . 14Task 4: Energy Efficiency Strategy . 15Task 5: Commercial and Industrial Customers . 15Task 6: Renewable Energy Production and Purposes. 16Task 7: Behind-the-Meter Deployment Strategies . 17Task 8: GoSolarSF Incentives and Projects . 17Task 9: Net Energy Metering Tariffs . 18Task 10: Financing Support . 18Task 11: Feed-In Tariffs and Power Purchase Agreements . 19Task 12: Hydroelectric Generation . 20Next Steps Include: . 20INTRODUCTION .2111.1TASK 1: UTILIZING SFPUC FOR CPSF POWER PROCUREMENT.29SFPUC Power Procurement Evaluation. 291.1.1 Subtask A: Assess Ability to Procure and Manage CPSF Supply Portfolio. 311.1.2 Subtask B: Assess Staffing Needs . 431.1.3 Subtask C: Potential Benefits, Economies or Efficiencies . 441.2Third Party Power Procurement Evaluation . 461.2.1 Power Procurement . 471.2.2 Resource Adequacy . 491.2.3 CAISO Schedule Coordination . 511.2.4 Customer Care Services . 541.3Develop Plan for Procurement Services . 561.4Task 1 Conclusions: Develop Plan for Procurement Services . 58SFPUC Power Procurement Evaluation. 58Local Build-out of Energy Resourcesi P a g e

San Francisco LAFCoCPSF Strategy and Plans . 6122.1TASK 2: TIMING/ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF LOCAL BUILD-OUT .62Local Build-out Objectives . 622.1.1 Achieving Local Build-Out Objectives. 622.1.2 Economic Benefits . 652.2Plan for Substitution of Local Power Supplies . 702.3Expand CPSF Customer Base . 722.3.1 Initial Program Size . 722.3.2 Commercial Customers . 732.3.3 Timing for Local Build-out of Generation Resources . 752.3.4 Customer Communications. 762.4Compare Planned to Actual Build-out . 762.5Conclusions: Economic Benefits . 7733.1TASK 3: LOCAL BUILD-OUT PROGRAM .78Energy Efficiency Outreach . 803.1.1 CCA Opt-out Information . 803.1.2 Energy Efficiency Website Information . 813.2Coordination with GoSolarSF . 823.3Conclusions: Energy Efficiency Program Outreach. 824TASK 4: ENERGY EFFICIENCY STRATEGY.834.1Leveraging Initial Allocation Overview . 854.2Plan for Low Income Allocation . 864.3Priorities and Resources . 884.4Conclusion: Energy Efficiency Strategy . 905TASK 5: COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS .915.1Attracting Commercial Customers . 915.2Pilot Programs for Commercial Subsidies . 965.3Demand and Resource Adequacy . 965.3.1 On-site Control Technologies . 975.3.2 EE and Resource Adequacy Program . 995.4Existing Programs and Connections . 995.5Conclusions: Commercial and Industrial Customers .100Local Build-out of Energy Resourcesii P a g e

San Francisco LAFCo66.1TASK 6: RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION AND PURPOSES .101Identification of Potential Sites .1026.1.1 Jobs Impact . 1106.2Evaluate Small Hydro Investments.1396.2.1 Small Hydro Opportunities on the SFPUC’s Water System. 1396.2.2 Assessment of Small Hydro Projects . 1416.2.3 Jobs Impact . 1426.3Evaluate Potential for Sunol Solar Project .1436.3.1 Plan for Sunol RFP . 1446.3.2 Future Steps for Sunol Solar Project . 1456.4Investigate Ratemaking Policies .1456.5Conclusions: Renewable Energy Projects including Jobs Created Summary. 1477TASK 7: BEHIND-THE-METER DEPLOYMENT STRATEGIES .1477.1BTM Feasibility Analysis .1487.2Three Year Financial Plan .1517.3BTM Installation Planning .1517.4Attracting Customers through BTM Subsidies .1517.5Conclusions: BTM projects .1528TASK 8: GO SOLAR SF INCENTIVES AND PROJECTS.1548.1Siting Criteria .1568.2Potential through Low Income Properties .1578.3Pre-construction Evaluation.1578.4Conclusions: GoSolarSF Incentives and Projects .1589TASK 9: NET ENERGY METERING TARIFFS .1589.1SFPUC NEM Tariff Plan .1589.2Identifying NEM Participants.1609.3Conclusions: Net Energy Metering .16110TASK 10: FINANCING SUPPORT .16110.1 Cost Recovery Framework .16210.1.1 Monopoly or Competitive Market . 16210.1.2 Stability of Customer Base . 16310.1.3 Characteristics of Customer Base and Service Area . 164Local Build-out of Energy Resourcesiii P a g e

San Francisco LAFCo10.2 Commitment to Sound Financial Policies and Practices .16410.3 Mitigation of Risks Associated with Cost of Purchased Power .16610.4 Political Concerns .16610.4.1 Relationship with Local Government . 16710.4.2 General Fund Transfers . 16710.5 Management of Generation Assets .16810.5.1 Diversity . 16810.5.2 Reliability and Predictability . 16910.6 Rate Competitiveness .16910.7 Financial Metrics.17010.8 Issuing Bonds/ Renewable Project Financing .17310.9 Direct Support of Individual Project Development .17510.10 Conclusions: Financing Support .17511TASK 11: FEED-IN TARIFFS AND POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS .17711.1 Power Purchase Agreements .17711.1.1 Power Purchase Agreement Risks . 17711.1.2 Power Purchase Agreements – Open Season Process . 17911.2 Feed-In Tariffs .18011.3 Conclusions: Power Purchase Agreements and Feed-in-Tariffs .18112TASK 12: HYDROELECTRIC GENERATION .18212.1 Use of Hetch Hetchy .18212.2 High Priority Customer .18212.3 Small Hydro .18312.4 Hetch Hetchy Power Use Plan .18312.5 Conclusions: Hydroelectric Generation.185APPENDIX A – LIST OF RESOURCES .186APPENDIX B – LIST OF ACRONYMS .188APPENDIX C – MEA 2014 OPEN SEASON INSTRUCTIONS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY OFFERS .193APPENDIX D – MEA 2014 STANDARIZED RENEWABLE ENERGY TEMPLATE .201Local Build-out of Energy Resourcesiv P a g e

San Francisco LAFCoIndex of TablesTable 1 Key for Figure 1 Locations of Potential Local and Regional Projects . 6Table 2 Solar Project Economic Impact Summary . 8Table 3 Wind and Project Economic Impact . 9Table 4 Geothermal Project Economic Impact . 10Table 5 Build-out Project Economic Impact Summary (Assuming ALL Projects are constructed). 11Table 6 Range of Possible Economic Impact from Behind the Meter Projects (EE, DR, DER) . 12Table 7 Range of Local/Regional Economic Impact Possibilities from Small Hydro and Behind the Meter Projects. 13Table 8 Scheduling Coordinator Requirements. 52Table 9 Key for Figure 8 Locations of Potential Local and Regional Projects . 64Table 10 Construction Benefits . 67Table 11 Post-construction Operations Benefits. 69Table 12 Sample PG&E Tariff Rates61 . 74Table 13 Key for Figure 1 Locations of Potential Local and Regional Projects . 79Table 14 Proposed Budget for initial 2M allocation of EE funding . 88Table 15 Largest and Most Suitable Potential PV Projects . 106Table 16 Wind Estimated Cost Comparison . 108Table 17 Estimated Geothermal Cost Comparison . 109Table 18 Default Assumptions Built Into the NREL JEDI Tool for PV Systems . 112Table 19 Warnerville Substation Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 113Table 20 Sunol Valley Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 114Table 21 Tesla Portal Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 115Table 22 SFO Parking Lot Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results. 116Table 23 Hunters Point - Parcel E - Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 117Table 24 University Mound - North Basin - Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 118Table 25 Sutro Reservoir / Summit Pump Station Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 119Table 26 Pulgas Balancing Reservoir Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 120Table 27 SF Port - pier 90-94 Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 121Table 28 Solar Project Economic Impact Summary . 122Table 29 Default Assumptions Built Into the NREL JEDI Tool for Wind Systems. 123Local Build-out of Energy Resourcesv P a g e

San Francisco LAFCoTable 30 Oceanside Wind Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 124Table 31 Sunol Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 125Table 32 Tesla Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results. 125Table 33 Montezuma Hills Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 126Table 34 Altamont Pass Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 126Table 35 Walnut Grove Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 127Table 36 Leona Valley Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 127Table 37 Newberry Springs Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 128Table 38 Wind Project Economic Impact . 129Table 39 Default Assumptions Built Into the NREL JEDI Tool for Geothermal Systems . 130Table 40 Default Assumptions Built Into the NREL JEDI Tool for Geothermal Flash Plant - Power Plant Costs . 132Table 41 Default Assumptions Built Into the NREL JEDI Tool for Geothermal Binary Plant - Power Plant Costs . 133Table 42 Brawley - Binary - Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 135Table 43 Geysers - Flash - Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 135Table 44 Long Valley – Binary - Local Economic Impacts - Summary Results . 136Table 45 Geothermal Project Economic Impact . 137Table 46 Build-out Project Economic Impact Summary (Assuming ALL Projects are constructed). 138Table 47 Small Hydro Construction Phase Economic Impact . 143Table 48 Local/Regional Small Hydro Economic Impact . 143Table 49 Range of Possible Economic Impact from Behind the Meter Projects (EE, DR, DER) . 153Table 50 Key Financial Metrics . 171Index of FiguresFigure 1 Locations of Potential Local and Regional Projects . 6Figure 2 Overview of Key Steps in Establishing CCA Service . 24Figure 3 California Renewable Energy Credit Categories . 34Figure 4 Power Enterprise Staff Costs32. 39Figure 5 Allocation of Power Enterprise FTE to CPSF Activities by Time Spent32 . 39Figure 6 Allocation of Power Enterprise FTE to CPSF Activities by Sales Volume32 . 41Figure 7 Range of Value-Based Fees. 42Figure 8 Locations of Potential Local and Regional Projects . 64Local Build-out of Energy Resourcesvi P a g e

San Francisco LAFCoFigure 9 Recommended Project Life Cycle Approach . 76Figure 10 Locations of Potential Local and Regional Projects . 79Figure 11 CPUC 2013 California Energy Efficiency Potential and Goals Study Table 2.3 . 93Figure 12 SunShot Reported, Bottom-up, and Analyst-projected Average U.S. PV System Prices over Time. 104Figure 13 The Distribution and Transmission Systems deliver Electricity to Consumers including CCA Customers. 146Figure 14 Range of Economic Impact based on BTM Program Incentive Levels. 154Figure 15 2014-2015 GoSolarSF Funding per Project . 155Figure 16 2008 San Francisco Solar Power Map (note that district lines have changed) . 156Figure 17 CAISO Day-Ahead Marginal Cost of Energy for PG&E (Oct 1 2013 – Sep 30, 2014) . 160Figure 18 NREL/LBNL Cost Estimates for Solar PV .

Local Build-Out Plan has been developed through the review and evaluation of the prior foundational work performed by and for CPSF. This Build-Out Plan presents recommendations that detail the next steps necessary for planning the build out of CPSF’s CCA program. In summary, this plan has made the following conclusions:

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