Schedule Execution Metrics
Schedule Execution MetricsThe value proposition for adding Baseline Realism,Baseline Progress and Forecast Realism to theScheduler Analyst’s ToolkitJune 2017
AbstractIn response to National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) Senior Management’s need formetrics that are leading indicators of program execution challenges, the NRO Cost andAcquisition Assessment Group (CAAG) Earned Value Management Center of Excellence(ECE) developed a suite of Schedule Execution Metrics. The metrics are now part of theNRO Corporate tool box for senior leadership decision support. The metrics are derivedfrom the Contractor’s integrated master schedule to answer the questions: Is the contractor executing to the baseline plan?Is the contractor ahead or behind in completing the planned activities?Is the forecast realistic?This briefing will define schedule execution metrics, explain how they are being used atNRO, and describe ongoing research tasks to establish thresholds and interpret themetrics.BPO/CAAG/ECE2
Business Case for Schedule Execution Metrics at NRO What led to the creation of Schedule Execution Metrics (SEM) We were tasked to create leading indicators to explain the true status of a program beyond the “green”conditions of program level CPI and SPI, and to provide an early indicator of a potential rebaselineWe were asked to provide clean, simple, easy-to-understand metricsMany detailed cost and technical metrics already exist are reviewed extensively. We chose to emphasizeschedule execution and schedule performance to fill a void. We rebranded existing NAVAIR, NRO internal and other metrics and created new metrics to fully analyzeschedule performance. JSCC Better EVMS Implementation Study II: Improving Value for Government PMs: Government PMs highly valuethe Integrated Master Schedule, and refer to it as managing “heads and scheds”Baseline Realism, work-off analysis (phasing of recovery), and other schedule execution metrics are usedextensively across NRO programs offices. We standardized terminology and created automated tools to putSchedule Execution Metrics in the Corporate ToolboxMeasuring accomplishment against the contractor’s forecast is a fall back if there is a problem with thebaseline planBenefits of employing Schedule Execution Metrics at NRO Excellent Insight on an Agile Program: The delta between baseline realism and baseline execution providedinsight into the magnitude of reprioritization work. The metrics indicated the contractor was efficientlydelivering software functionality, but highlighted the impact of Government's reprioritization through agilesoftware management, and alerted the customer of potential work in the backlog that might not becompletedBetter Insight Drives accountability When included in a suite of cost, schedule and technical metrics,schedule execution metrics isolated underlying schedule issues leading to corrective action targeted to keepthe program on schedule including: assigning dedicated effectivity and test campaign leads, investing in theimprovement of testing environments, more complete detail planning when ECP work is added to thecontract.BPO/CAAG/ECE3
How Schedule Execution Metrics can help IndustryThe suite of Schedule Execution Metrics tells a morecomplete story Provides feedback to the planning process Is the work really being performed as it was planned? How much canthe plan deviate and still be useful as a plan (use of float, margin)? Identifies upcoming planning challenges Are future activities in jeopardy of finishing late? Is there a bow wave ofactivities on he horizon? Highlights issues that are not necessarily identified by technicalmetrics How much effort is regularly being spent on activities that are alreadymore than 30d late? Supplements typical schedule presentation Is accomplishment of tasks supporting the standard Gantt Chart view?Is there a potential impact to the critical path?BPO/CAAG/ECE4
Challenges in Typical Schedule ReportingTypically EVM Metrics providedto Senior LeadershipProjected BLR (Mo)1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.1Filter: All TasksJul-20Apr-20Jan-20Jul-19Oct-19Jan-19Schedule Data as of October 17Apr-170.0Jul-16EVMvsSEMOct-16Program-level Cumulative ScheduleVariance can look favorable, even ifthere are execution challenges: Historic performance can heavilyweight the indicator to “green”BLR (Mo)Jan-16Notional DataPROGRAM X Executive View Baseline Realism (1 Mo)Apr-16VAC Oct-15CV Perfromance IndexProgram LevelBUSPAYLOADSV Schedule Execution Metrics canprovide Additional Insight100% have BL FinNotional DataBaseline Realism can provide an earlyindicator that a contractor is notperforming the work as plannedSenior Leaders ask for leading indicators of execution challengesBPO/CAAG/ECE5
Schedule Execution Metrics as part of the NROCorporate ToolboxSchedule data andanalysis is part of theEVM data setAbility to AbsorbLate FinishesBaseline RealismBaseline ProgressForecast RealismBaseline RealismMoving AveragesDistribution ofLate FinishesSchedule WorkoffsBaseline Realism isone of manymetrics that can beused to assessscheduleperformanceBaseline ExecutionIndexOthersBPO/CAAG/ECE6
We recommend a combination of new and existing ScheduleExecution Metrics to answer 3 critical questionsQuestionIs thecontractorexecuting thebaseline plan?Is thecontractorahead orbehind?Is the forecastrealistic?BPO/CAAG/ECEMetric/AnalysisWhat it MeansBaseline ProgressPrior to “time now” Activities completed early or on time / baseline activitiesplanned finishes over a specified period of timeAfter “time now” Activities forecasted early or on time / baseline activities plannedfinishes over a specified period of timeBaseline RealismPrior to “time now” Assessment of the completions of specific baseline planfinishes over a specified period of timeAfter “time now” Assessment of the forecasted completions of specific baselineplan finishes over a specified period of timeCritical PathVerificationIdentification of Critical Path activities to any specific deliverable or milestoneCritical Path LengthIndex(Duration to a specific deliverable or milestone float and margin) / duration to aspecific deliverable or milestoneSchedule MarginRemainingSchedule margin as percentage of remaining time to a deliverable or milestoneForecast RealismPrior to “time now” Number of tasks actually completed / number of tasksforecasted to finish in a previous IMS version of the IMSAfter “time now” Number of tasks forecasted to complete / number of tasksforecasted to finish in a previous IMS version of the IMSSchedule WorkoffPrior to “time now” Percentage of activities completed each month that are morethan 30 days lateAfter “time now” Percentage of activities in the future that are forecasted to to bemore than 30 days lateTotal FloatConsumption Index(Actual Duration Critical Path Total Float) / Actual DurationNote: One or more specified period of time can be one to six months, or a cumulative value
Illustration - December 2016 StatusAssessmentWindowTime NowEarly finish, currentperiod baselineOn plan finish, current periodOn plan finish,prior periodLate finish, current periodOn plan finish,current periodLate, notfinishedEarly finish, current shProgress (ending at forecast or actual finish)LatePercentCompleteBPO/CAAG/ECE8
Illustration – Baseline Realism:On Plan Finishes for Activities with Baseline Finisheswithin the assessment windowTime NowAssessmentWindowOn plan finish, current period12On plan finish,current period34NotionalMonthly Baseline Realism 4/6 0.6666% of the of the activities planned for completion in the assessmentwindow were completed during the assessment window.Note : Cumulative Baseline Execution 8/9 0.89BPO/CAAG/ECE9
Illustration – Baseline Progress:On Plan & Early Finishes for Activities with Baseline Finisheswithin the assessment windowTime NowAssessmentWindowEarly finish, currentperiod baseline1On plan finish, current period23On plan finish,current period45NotionalMonthly Baseline Progress 5/6 0.8383% of the activities planned for completion in the assessment window wereaccomplished or before the time-now date.Note : Cumulative Baseline Progress 8/9 0.89BPO/CAAG/ECE10
Illustration – Baseline Execution:All On Plan, Early, & Late Finisheswithin the assessment windowTime NowAssessmentWindowOn plan finish, current period12Late finish, current period3On plan finish,current period45Early finish, current period6NotionalMonthly Baseline Execution 6/6 1.00The pace of work is 100% of what it was planned to be during theassessment window, although the completed activities were notnecessarily the ones that were planned for completion.BPO/CAAG/ECENote : Cumulative Baseline Execution 9/9 1.0011
Automated Tools versus Manual AnalysisAutomatedTool in UseFutureAutomatedToolManualAnalysisNote: Data for Schedule Margin Metric can be Collected in Forecast Realism ToolBPO/CAAG/ECE12
New Schedule Execution Metrics and how they comparewidely available Baseline Execution Index (BEI)MetricWhat it Tells YouBaseline Realism(BR)*Is the baseline being accomplished the way it was planned (by specific period orcumulative to date)?How well the contractor can do the work in the manner identified in the IntegratedMaster Schedule?Low BR can be a potential early indicator of need to replanBaselineProgress (BP)*What is the progress to “time now” against the plan (by specific period or cumulative todate)?Differs from BR in that it includes prior finishes if the task was baselined within theassessment window. Does not count early finishes for activities baselined to finish afterthe assessment window.Most PMs will be most concerned with Cumulative BP and Critical Path managementForecast Realism(FR)Are forecasted tasks being accomplished as forecasted?Provides insight into contractor's ability to complete the activities forecasted forcompletion in previous IMS submissionsBaselineExecution Index(BEI)Execution Pace - Significantly different from BR and BP in that BEI does not look at theorder or the planBEI provides the actual pace of activities accomplished compared to the pace that wasplanned“BEI is the SPI of Schedule Execution Metrics” (BEI is based on activity finishes notdollars). Like SPI, BEI may not necessarily be a leading indicator. Unlike SPI, BEI doesnot give credit for partial completionBPO/CAAG/ECENote: Cumulative BR is equal to Cumulative BP13
Interpreting Baseline RealismM2C2 (Nov 2016) Activity Baseline Realism (Cum/Cur)Monthly BL FinMonthly Planning Window FinishBLR (Mo)Projected BLR (Mo)BLR (Cum)Projected Cum BLR3001.00.9Perfromance 20Jun-20Aug-200.10.0# Activities in Month2500.8Filter: All TasksSchedule Data as of November 20160100% have BL FinNotional DataTime nowBPO/CAAG/ECELight Blue Bars represent thecount of activity baseline finishesPrior to Time Now - Black Barsrepresent actual activity finishesAfter time now – Black Barsrepresent forecasted activityfinishesSolid Red Line represents thepercent of activity completions inthe period they were baselinedfor completionDotted Red Line representspercent of activity completionsforecasted to complete in theperiod they are baselined to becompletedSolid Black Triangles representCumulative Baseline Realism(percent)White Triangles representForecasted Cumulative BaselineRealism (percent)14
Screen shots of Schedule Execution Metrics (1)Baseline RealismBaseline ProgressPROGRAM X Baseline Progress (Cum/Monthly)PROGRAM X Monthly Baseline RealismProjected BLR (Mo)3001.00.9250BLP (Mo)BLP (Cum)Projected BLP 0.3500.200.0500.1Are activities being accomplishedScheduleData aswereof Octoberplanned?2016the waytheyFilter: All Tasks100% have BL 0Apr-20Jun-20Aug-200.62500.8Perfromance Index0.7Filter: All TasksWhat is the “time now”Schedule Data as of October 2016progress against the plan?Forecasted Late FinishesFuture Planned Finishes (Mo)# Forecasted Activities25% of all tasks currentlyprojected to finish after thestatus of OCT 2016 werebaselined to finish prior to thatstatus 15Mar-15Jan-15Feb-150Dec-14100% have BL -17Dec-16Jun-16What is the recovery plan formissed tasks?Filter: All Schedule Data as of October 2016400Provides ratio of specific activiies actuallyaccomplished during the six--period windowcompared to the projected finishes from thebeginning of that 620006 Mo Forecast Realism1600Dec-15250Forecast Realsim# Monthly Activities300# Completed Activities0.9# Activities350Nov-15Late Unfinished Activities (Mo)100% have BL FinPROGRAM X - 6 Mo Forecast RealismPROGRAM X Forecasted Late FinishesCompleted Activities (Mo)0Forecast RealismJun-150.0Monthly EOT FinishProjected BLP (Mo)1.0# Activities in MonthPerfromance Index0.8Monthly BL Fin# Activities in MonthBLR (Mo)How well is the contractor forecastingfuture finishes?Dec-16Monthly Planning Window FinishNov-16Monthly BL Fin15
Screen Shots of Schedule Execution Metrics (2)Schedule WorkoffsSchedule MarginProgram X Schedule Workoffs# Activities 30d Late (Mo)# Activities Projected 30d Late (Mo)# Projected Completed Activities (Mo)Schedule Margin to MS2% of Activity Completions 30d Late (Cum)Schedule Margin to MS3Schedule Margin to 3553502010351588880%IMS Status DatesWhat is trendingusage ofSchedule Margin?To-Complete Baseline ExecutionFuture Durations1.6BE (Cum)Projected BE (Cum)BE (Mo)TC-BE51% difference between Cumulative BE (0.842) andTo-Complete BEI (1.352) as of NOV 20161.41.2Avg Dur for Completed Act: 25dAvg Dur for Future Act: 19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20SAME400200ScheduleData as ofNovemberin2016line withIs remainingworkpace100% have BL FinFilter: All TasksEXPANDED14%0.8BPO/CAAG/ECE how the work was planned?7PROGRAM X - Activity Future DurationsPROGRAM X Baseline Execution vs To-Complete BaselineExecutionMonthly Finish1570100% have BL FinMonthly BL Fin515030How mucheffortbeingScheduleData as ofisNovember2016 spent onactivities more than 30d late?Filter: All TasksPerfromance 62006010/31/201660%739/30/20162507370# Days Margin80%300080100%34% of All Activities are projectedto be more than 30d Late350# Activities in Month# Completed Activities (Mo)% of Activities More than 30d Late400Schedule Margin ErosionSchedule Margin to MS12/28/2017% of Activity Completions 30d Late (Mo)18%68%1554 ACTIVITIES 100%COMPLETE AS OF11/30/2016 (3712 TOTALACTIVITIES IN IMS)Are activity durations changing(contracting or expanding)?DURATIONS COMPARED TOTHOSE IDENTTIFIED ON1/31/201616
ECE Schedule Execution Metric Capabilities Schedule Execution Metric methods are documented and have beenpresented over the last 6 months at NRO Scheduler’s Forum Terminology has been Branded Formulas have been vetted Charts have been presented to senior management NRO Earned Value Center of Excellence (ECE) has developed toolsautomated calculation ECE is currently working to benchmark Schedule Execution Metricsto better interpret results with respect to historical experience ECE is encouraging COTS vendors to consider incorporatingSchedule Execution Metrics into IMS and IPMR Analysis ToolsBPO/CAAG/ECE17
Ongoing Research to Interpret Metrics What level or trend in Baseline Realism is an early indicator of anOTB? Can Baseline Progress values less than a certain value be regularlyassociated with an overrun or use of schedule margin? What is an expected benchmark for Forecast Realism?Factors to Consider Space Hardware versus Ground Software (in the Space and Groundcommunity) Use of Schedule Margin, Management Reserve Follow-on effort versus New DevelopmentBPO/CAAG/ECE18
Back-upBPO/CAAG/ECE19
NRO Uses an Automated Tool to CalculateSchedule Execution Metrics Automated Data Entry and Chart Package Generation Microsoft Project Schedule, Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic Tool Outputs shown on following slidesBPO/CAAG/ECE20
PROGRAM XYZ - Schedule Finish DataCumulative to DateBased on historical data (beforeor equal to Status Date) ANDselected MS Project FilterDays Late/Early -60 -30 -30 and 30 30 60 90 120# Activities092306300% of Total0%2%63%2%1%0%0% 15000% 180NO BASELINE01160%32%2%63%2%2%0%32%32%Notional DataBPO/CAAG/ECE21
PROGRAM XYZ - Schedule Finish DataFuture ActivitiesBased on future data (afterStatus Date) AND selected MSProject FilterDays Late/Early -60 -30 -30 and 30 30 60 90 120# Activities01412141% of Total0%0%11%1%0%1%0% 15000% 180NO BASELINE03400%87%0%11%1%2%1%87%87%Notional DataCharts 3-5 provide an easy wayto see if the future trends aresignificantly different thanhistorical dataBPO/CAAG/ECE22
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Monthly Baseline RealismPROGRAM XYZ ACT Monthly Baseline RealismMonthly BL FinMonthly Planning Window FinishBLR (Mo)Projected BLR (Mo)160Performance Index1.00.91400.8120Number of Baseline 0.7Finishes per Month 0.6100Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Projected)0.50.480600.3400.2200.1Number of Actual/ProjectedFinishes per ep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-200.0Filter: All TasksIMS FilterBPO/CAAG/ECE# Activities in MonthBaseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Historical)Schedule Data as of June 2016IMS Status Date0456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data23
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Multi-View Baseline RealismCumulative-to-DateBaseline RealismIndex (Historical)Baseline RealismIndex for 6 Months(Historical) – NotVisible – Requires 6months of dataPROGRAM XYZ Activity Multi-View Baseline RealismProjected BLR (Mo)BLR (3 Mo)BLR (6 Mo)BLR (Cum)Projected Cum BLR1.00.70.60.50.4Filter: All TasksIMS Status 19Jan-19Schedule Data as of June 0.0Mar-160.1Sep-180.2May-18Baseline Realism1 Mo BLR:- 3 Mo BLR: 0.81Indexfor0.51 Month6 Mo BLR: 0.97 - Cum BLR: 0.97(Projected)0.3Sep-15Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Historical)Cumulative-to-DateBaseline RealismIndex (Projected)0.8Nov-15Performance Index0.9Baseline RealismIndex for 3 Months(Historical)Filter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEBLR (Mo)456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data24
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Executive View Baseline RealismPROGRAM XYZ ACT Executive View Baseline Realism (1Mo)Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Historical)BLR (Mo)Projected BLR (Mo)1.0Performance Index0.90.80.70.6Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Projected)0.50.40.30.20.1Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECESchedule Data as of June 2016IMS Status Jun-16Mar-16Dec-15Sep-150.0456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data25
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Baseline Progress (Cum/Monthly)Cumulative-to-DateBaseline ProgressIndex (Historical)Cumulative-to-DateBaseline ProgressIndex (Projected)PROGRAM XYZ ACT Baseline Progress (Cum/Monthly)Monthly BL FinMonthly EOT FinishBLP (Mo)Projected BLP (Mo)BLP (Cum)Projected BLP (Cum)Number of BaselineFinishes per Month1400.81200.70.50.480600.3400.2200.10.0Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECE100Baseline ProgressIndex for 1 Month(Projected)0.6Number of Actual/ProjectedFinishes per ep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Performance IndexBaseline ProgressIndex for 1 Month(Historical)0.9# Activities in Month1601.0Schedule Data as of June 2016IMS Status Date0456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data26
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Monthly Baseline ProgressPROGRAM XYZ ACT Monthly Baseline ProgressBLP (Mo)Projected BLP (Mo)1.00.90.70.6Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEIMS Status 19Jan-19Schedule Data as of June Mar-16Sep-150.3Baseline Progress0.2Index for 1 Month0.1(Historical) 0.0Nov-170.4Sep-17Baseline ProgressIndex for 1 Month(Projected)0.5Nov-15Performance Index0.8456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data27
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Baseline ExecutionPROGRAM XYZ ACT Baseline ExecutionMonthly BL FinMonthly FinishBE (Mo)Projected BE (Mo)BE (Cum)Projected BE (Cum)Accomplished 152.3% of BL Plan ACT to date - All Remaining ACT represent30.0Baseline661% (increase) of ACT in BL PlanScheduledExecutionto finish after JUN 2016Baseline ExecutionIndex for 1 Date BaselineExecution Index (Projected)205.0Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS Jul-20Cumulative-to-DateBaseline ExecutionIndex (Historical)140Index for 1 Month(Historical)25.0Performance IndexNumber of BaselineFinishes per Month160# Activities in MonthNumber ofActual/Projected Finishes perMonthSchedule Data as of June 2016IMS Status Date0456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data28
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Baseline Executionvs To-Complete Baseline ExecutionPROGRAM X Baseline Execution vs To-Complete BaselineTo Complete BaselineExecutionExecution IndexMonthly BL FinMonthly FinishBE (Cum)Projected BE (Cum)BaselineExecution Indexfor 1 Month(Historical)Finishes per Month1.2Avg NumberDur for Completedof Act: 25dAvg Dur for Future Act: 28d1.0Baseline Finishesper 20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-200.0Cumulative-to-Date BaselineExecution Index (Projected)Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECETC-BE51% difference between Cumulative BE (0.842) andNumberof asActual/ProjectedTo-CompleteBEI (1.352)of NOV 20161.4Perfromance IndexCumulative-toDate BaselineExecution Index(Historical)1.6BE (Mo)Schedule Data as of November 2016IMS Status Date0100% have BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data29
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Schedule WorkoffsProgram X Schedule Workoffs% of Activity Completions 30d Late (Mo)# Activities 30d Late (Mo)# Activities Projected 30d Late (Mo)# Completed Activities (Mo)# Projected Completed Activities (Mo)% of Activity Completions 30d Late (Cum)40080%Cumulative Percentage of Completed60% more than 30d LateActivities25020040%Filter: All TasksIMS Status dule Data as of November 2016Aug-19Apr-19Feb-19Oct-1820%Number of Activities Forecastedto Complete More than 30dLate during -16Feb-16Number of Activities 100Completed More than5030d Late during Month0Oct-15150Dec-15# Activities in Month100%34% of All Activities are projectedto be more than 30d LateNumber of Activities 350Completed during Month300Filter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEPercentage of Completed Activitiesmore than 30d Late During a Month% of Activities More than 30d LateNumber of ActivitiesForecasted to Completeduring Month100% have BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data30
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Forecasted Late FinishesProgram X Forecasted Late FinishesNumber of ActivitiesUnfinished BL ActivitiesCompleted ActivitiesFuture Planned FinishesForecasted to Completeduring Month40027% of all tasks currrentlyprojected to finish after thestatus of NOV 2016 werebaselined to finish prior to thatstatus date350# Monthly ActivitiesNumber of Activities300Completed during Month250200Activities that are Already Late and when theyare currently Forecasted to by Complete150100Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEIMS Status Apr-19Schedule Data as of November Dec-150Nov-1550100% have BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data31
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Late Finish AssessmentProgram X Late Finish AssessmentSTATUS DATE: NOV 20164000StatusBL FINISHFINISHLATE FINISHDate350030002500Late Finishes20001500Filter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECESchedule Data as of November 2016IMS Status er: All TasksMar-17Actual/ForecastedFinishes5000Some future tasksmay slip by as manyas 337 calendar daysbefore impacting theIMS completion dateMay-191000Dec-16Total Number of ActivitiesBaseline Finishes100% have BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data32
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Baseline Realismvs Baseline ProgressProgram X Baseline Realism vs Baseline ProgressSchedule Data as of November 2016IMS Status n-16Aug-16Apr-16Feb-16Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Historical)Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEBLR (Cum) BLP (Cum)Baseline ProgressIndex for 1 5000.4000.3000.2000.1000.000BLP (Mo)Cumulative BaselineProgress/Realism Index(Historical)Dec-15Perfromance IndexBLR (Mo)100% have BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data33
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT Baseline Realism (Cum/Cur)Projected BLR (Mo)BLR (Cum)Projected Cum BLRBaseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Historical)Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Projected)Filter: All TasksFilter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEMonthly Planning Window FinishBLR (Mo)Schedule Data as of June 2016IMS Status DateCumulative-to-DateBaseline RealismIndex (Projected)160140120100806040200# Activities in MonthPerformance IndexNumber of BaselineFinishes per Month1.00.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.0Monthly BL -19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Number ofActual/Projected Finishes perMonthCumulative-to-DateBaseline RealismIndex (Historical)PROGRAM XYZ Activity Baseline Realism (Cum/Cur)456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data34
PROGRAM XYZ - ACT BR vs BP vs BEPROGRAM XYZ ACT BLR vs BLP vs BEBLR (Mo)30.020.0Baseline ProgressIndex for 1 Month(Historical)15.010.0Filter: All TasksIMS Status 19Jan-19Schedule Data as of June Jan-16Mar-16Sep-15Nov-150.0Mar-18Baseline RealismIndex for 1 Month(Historical)5.0Filter Used inMS ProjectBPO/CAAG/ECEBE (Mo)Baseline ExecutionIndex for 1 Month(Historical)25.0Performance IndexBLP (Mo)456 ACT require BL FinIdentification of eventswithout BL Finish DatesNotional Data35
PROGRAM X - 1 Period ACT Forecast RealismForecast Realism isThese are the projectedassessment of the actualcompletions for Nov 16completions to the projected(usingthe OctRealism16 file)completions (in this case 125PROGRAM X - 1 Mo ActivityForecastof 250 .5)# Forecasted Activities# Completed Activities1 Mo Activity Forecast Realism1.03500.93000.62000.51500.4These are completions inNov 16 of SPECIFIC100events that were forecastProvides ratio of specificactiviiesactually to bewereforecast50accomplished comparedtotheprojectedcomplete in the Oct 16 16Feb-16In this example, Contractor’sability to forecast
BUS PAYLOAD Program-level Cumulative Schedule Variance can look favorable, even if there are execution challenges: Historic performance can heavily weight the indicator to “green” Senior L
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