The Economic And Social Impact Of COVID-19
Public Disclosure AuthorizedThe Economic and SocialImpact of COVID-19EDUCATIONPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedWESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORTNo.17 Spring 2020“You and me” by Tanja Burzanovic (Montenegro)The RER No. 17 is a collection of notes on the Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 that will be published in three parts. The first part was launched on April 29 and focused on the macroeconomic impactof COVID-19. This second part shows how the macroeconomic impact affects the people in the region. Itdiscusses the social impact of COVID-19 in the Western Balkans in six separate RER notes on poverty andwelfare, labor, health, education, air pollution, and social protection. The third part, to be launched in earlyJune, will focus on specific economic policy response areas—fiscal, external, and financial sector—and thecrisis impact on the private sector as reported by firms.
THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19Estimated Impact of COVID-19 on Education and CountryResponses1 The COVID-19 pandemic shocks to the education systems will have negative short and longterm impact. Economic gains might falter, human capital growth will likely decline or come to astandstill and current gaps in learning equity will widen. All Western Balkan countries have responded to the disruption in education delivery byintroducing various remote teaching modalities. Yet despite prompt action, learning loss willbe unavoidable and considerable, disproportionately affecting the disadvantaged, with a largershare of students falling back into functional illiteracy and potentially dropping out of schoolaltogether. Estimates suggest that those below basic proficiency in reading may increase from thecurrent 53 percent to 61 percent. While schools remain closed or partially reopened, strengthened delivery of remote learningand support to teachers and parents can mitigate learning loss. Accelerated learning programsto compensate students for learning loss and adequate education budget to ensure minimumconditions to deal with additional post-COVID-19 costs will be critical to ensure that studentscatch up and further inequalities are prevented. Western Balkan countries should also seize the opportunity to make education more effective,inclusive and resilient. Improving and scaling up COVID-19 response policies that haveworked, including reducing the digital divide and building teachers’ digital skills would buildsystem resilience to future shocks. Additionally, focusing on dropout prevention, enhancingearly education and care services with a focus on disadvantaged children, strengthening teachertraining, enhancing education financing and performance monitoring will lead to improvementsof education quality and equity in the medium-term.How are education systems in theWestern Balkans responding to COVID19?The impact of the pandemic stem largelyfrom school closures and the transitionto remote learning. Closures are affectingover 91 percent of the world’s students and1.6 billion learners not in school.2 The current12This note has been prepared by Flora Kelmendi, James Greshamand Syedah Aroob Iqbal. The note benefitted from comments andcontributions from Harry Patrinos, Jamele Rigolini, Maria PomesJimenez, Amer Hasan, Alexandria Valerio, Bojana Naceva, AngelaDemas, Edith Kikoni, Marc Schiffbauer, Jasmin Chakeri, EnriqueBlanco Armas and Gallina Vincelette.Figures correspond to number of learners enrolled at pre-primary,primary, lower-secondary, and upper-secondary levels of education[ISCED levels 0 to 3], as well as at tertiary education s [ISCEDlevels 5 to 8]. Enrollment figures are based on the latest UNESCOInstitute for Statistics data.school closures will result in learning loss forall students, while disproportionately affectingdisadvantaged students, who are more likely todrop out or leave school early. These negativeimpacts will have both short- and long-termimplications. Economic gains might falter,human capital growth will likely decline orcome to a standstill, and, most important,current gaps in learning equity will widen.Countries in the Western Balkans havecombined preventive measures to curb thevirus’s spread with mitigation measuresto provide continuity in education. Allcountries in the region moved quickly to closeschools and adopt other preventive measures asEducation 1
WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSESBox 1. What Is Happening with Tertiary Education?Higher education institutions in the region have temporarily closed, and more than 600,000university students have seen their classes moved abruptly online to mitigate the campus closings.In general, education system capacity at the tertiary level is much higher, and so are technologicalaccess and skills, as well as the autonomy, of the students. Thus, classes are being delivered online.Western Balkan universities have mostly relied for teaching on external video conferencing toolssuch as Zoom, Skype, and most often Google Classroom. However, courses that require practicalexperience, laboratory work, or clinics cannot be given. Manuals and other guidance have beenprepared to assist professors in the move online (e.g., in Kosovo the University of Pristina issueddirections for online provision of instruction, such as how to create online lectures in the Googleplatform).soon as the first cases were confirmed (March9‒13, 2020). In the Western Balkans, all highereducation institutions (Box 1) are closed and2.7 million pre-university students are directlyaffected.also moved to mitigate disengagement andlearning loss for the most vulnerable students,5and are considering proposals for altering theschool calendar, adjusting vacation days, andproviding ICT equipment to students.6To ensure continuity in learning while schoolsare closed, countries have introduced a varietyof modes for emergency remote teachingand learning. Distance learning measuresinclude an array of delivery mechanisms: TVor radio broadcast, resources uploaded todedicated websites, classes delivered online,and contacts with students through mobilephones. Most often, countries have opted fora combination of methods. In the region, toreach the most students governments reliedheavily on TV broadcasts of recorded lessons.However, to provide TV lessons at scale, boththe subjects covered and the instruction timehave been considerably abridged. Resourcesfor teachers to adjust to remote teachings arealso being made available online on dedicatedplatforms and websites. Some countries thatwere preparing the system for online learninghave fast-tracked those efforts to better respondto current circumstances.3,4 Countries haveDespite prompt action throughout theregion, school closures and less effectiveforms of remote teaching will invariablylead to learning loss and widen equity gaps.Transitioning to online learning at scale is verydifficult because it is highly complex even inthe best of circumstances.7 In the pandemic,the move to emergency remote learning wassudden. The readiness of countries to deliverquality education for all using remote andonline modalities is central to assessing howthe COVID-19 response will impact humancapital accumulation over the -organizaciji-online-nastave-iinstrukcija/1812/).2 Education56For example, Montenegro is considering an agreement withtelecom operators to provide unlimited data plans for the studentsleast likely to have reliable broadband access. Support is also beingprovided for refugee and migrant children in temporary receptioncenters in Bosnia and Herzegovina. ://enastava.skolers.org/ na-daljinu.aspx.World Bank (2020). Rapid Response Briefing Note: RemoteLearning and COVID-19 Outbreak (English). Washington, DC:World Bank Group.
THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19How prepared are countries to deliverquality education for all, using remoteand online teaching modalities for anextended time?Although how the pandemic will evolvein the Western Balkans is unknown, it isexpected that schools will remain closed intothe summer months, possibly not reopeninguntil the next academic year. It is also likelythat localized disruptions will continue into thenext academic year, with staggered and partialschool reopenings. Education systems willneed to continue responding to the disruptionwhile also preventing and minimizing learningloss and safeguarding equity and inclusion.Achieving all this effectively requires severalpreconditions, such as (1) ICT access andconnectivity; (2) availability of quality onlinecontent; (3) teachers skilled in remote andonline instruction; (4) parental support forremote and online instruction; and (5) sufficientinstructional time.lessons but its effectiveness depends on accessto digital devices, Internet connectivity, thequality of content design, and teacher digitalskills. The move to online learning at scale willdisproportionately benefit students who arealready advantaged (e.g., rich over poor, urbanover rural) as financially better-off familiesare more likely to be able to have computersand Internet at home than students in poorerfamilies.While Western Balkan countries havewidespread access to television, whichhelps to guarantee a minimum level ofequity, this medium is not sufficient forquality instruction. By design, TV-basedinstruction and pre-recorded televisedlessons are not interactive and do not adaptto learners’ individualized needs; however,it does provide for more equitable access tocontent because TV is widely available acrossthe region.8 Online learning has the potentialfor being far more interactive than televisedStudents in the Western Balkans have lessaccess to high-speed connectivity than theirEU peers, and regional data present a clearequity challenge. On average, in the WesternBalkans, about 60 percent of households havefast enough connection to sustain requirementsfor online learning, defined for this analysisas 10 mbps and higher.9 However, it shouldalso be noted that 10 Mbps is lower than thestandards acceptable in the USA (25 mbps)or in the EU (30 mbps). Using these higherbenchmarks, most households in the region arenot equipped with high speed Internet. Even at10 mbps, there is significant variation withinthe region: only 35 percent of households inBosnia & Herzegovina have that Internetspeeds, compared to 48 percent in NorthMacedonia and 64 percent in Serbia.10 There isalso a large share of Western Balkan students—about 22 percent—who report little11 orno home Internet access, compared to just11 percent in the EU27. More significantly,although students in the top economic, social,and cultural status (ESCS) quintile have almostuniversal access to the internet (including100 percent of those students in BiH, NorthMacedonia, MNE, and Serbia) that is not89ICT Access and ConnectivityFor primary education students, TV ownership is widespreadin the Western Balkans (at 98%), which is encouraging as massbroadcast is the preferred emergency delivery mode for primarystudents.Data are based on the most recent reports from the nationalregulators of electronic communications.10 Ibid.11 Less than one hour.Education 3
WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSESFigure 1. Internet Connectivity and Access to ICT Equipment in the Western BalkansA link to the internet, top and bottom ESCS quintilesALBA computer you can use for school work, top and bottom ALBKOS96 100MKD100MNE94 100SRB73Q Top ECS quintile9758957998719983020PercentJ Bottom ECS quintile97BIH981002740608099100PercentJ Bottom ECS quintileQ Top ECS quintileSource: PISA 2018.the case for their counterparts in the bottomquintile, and differences can be as large as50 percentage points (Albania).Sustaining effective learning through remoteand online modes, particularly over monthswhile the pandemic continues, will alsodepend on whether households have ICTresources available for educational purposes.PISA 2018 data, though limited to secondaryschool students, provide an estimate ofhousehold readiness for online education. Onaverage, one in ten households with WesternBalkans students do not own a computer; inAlbania this rises to almost a third, 28 percent.Ownership of ICT resources is far differentfrom their use for education. While an averageof 86 percent of students report having accessto a computer they can use for schoolwork, thepercentage is likely to be lower in the lockdownscenario when there are competing demandson those resources (e.g., parents’ home-basedwork, siblings’ education). More significantly,the socioeconomic gap in access to ICT can belarge. Students in the top ESCS quintile havealmost universal access to the Internet andwidespread access to computers they can use4 Educationfor work. However, as Figure 1 shows, thesefigures are much lower for those in the lowestquintile.Provision of Digital ContentIn addition to limited connectivity, theavailability and quality of digital contentare also questionable. Although there is littlecross-country information, PISA 2018 resultssuggest that such content and its organizationfor online support is quite limited. They alsomake it evident that most students do notattend a school which offers an effective onlinelearning support platform (Figure 2). Thesudden transition to remote online instructionduring the pandemic forced schools to scramblefor a next best alternative, such as recordedlessons and distribution of electronic learningmaterials by email. It is not clear whether suchmaterials were designed for use in remoteonline instruction or had to be improvised.
THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19Figure 2. Availability of Effective Digital Educational Content from the Perspective of SchoolPrincipalsAn effective online learning support platform is available, TUSVNWBEU27OECDSource: PISA 2018 results showing the proportion of students whose principals agree or strongly agree with the statement.Teachers’ Digital SkillsAlthough no cross-country data are available,there are clear indications that teachers in theWestern Balkans are not prepared to supporteffective remote and online learning for long.All Western Balkans countries acknowledgethe importance of digital skills, though theyhave taken different approaches to buildingsuch skills in the teacher workforce. Serbia,for example, has a specific digital competencecurriculum for teachers, and also checkstheir ability to use digital technologies forstudent assessment. In Montenegro and NorthMacedonia, digital competencies for teachersare among general teacher competence criteria,though that is not true of Albania and Bosniaand Herzegovina.12Even in the EU, where digital connectivity inschools is more common than in the WesternBalkans, only 20‒25 percent of students aretaught by teachers who are confident withtechnology.13 Teachers across the EuropeanUnion repeatedly cited ICT skills as an area12 Source: Eurydice (2019). Digital Education at School in Europe.No information is available for Kosovo.13 eme-for-schools en.where teacher professional development isneeded. The ICT in Schools Survey in Europefound that more than 6 out of 10 Europeanstudents are taught by teachers that develop theirICT skills on their own time.14 EU teachers alsocite (1) lack of pedagogical models on how touse ICT for learning, (2) lack of adequate skillsamong teachers, and (3) insufficient technicalsupport as among the worst pedagogy-relatedobstacles to ICT use in teaching and learning.15Again, the problem is likely to be even largerin the Western Balkans. Even in Serbia, wheredigital skills are explicitly identified as teachercompetences, 56 percent of VET teacherssurveyed reported that they require at a highor moderate level professional development inICT-related fields.16Parental SupportParents, now de facto teachers, may not havethe ability, or the time, to assist students. Thisis especially true for younger students, lower14 /2nd-surveyschools-ict-education.15 European Commission (2019). 2nd Survey of Schools: ICT inEducation. Objective 1: Benchmark Progress in ICT in Schools.Final Report.16 ETF (2017). Digital Skills and Online Learning in Serbia. DigitalFactsheet October 2017.Education 5
WESTERN BALKANS REGULAR ECONOMIC REPORT NO.17ESTIMATED IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON EDUCATION AND COUNTRY RESPONSESperforming students, and those with specialneeds. Even in the best of circumstances, manyparents are not prepared to cope with distancelearning and home-schooling, particularlythose who are not technologically savvy, havelimited education and resources, have severalchildren to support, and must make decisionsabout how to allocate a shortage of IT devices .For example, the share of adults who have basicor better digital skills range from 24 percent inBosnia and Herzegovina to 32 percent in NorthMacedonia and 46 percent in Serbia, comparedto 56 percent in the EU27 and over 70 percentin countries like Germany, Denmark, and theNetherlands.17would receive 110 to 200 fewer hours ofinstruction than European peers—equivalentto 4 to 7 fewer weeks of instruction per schoolyear than the EU average. The transition toremote and online teaching will squeeze outeven more instructional time, particularly fordisadvantaged students.19Figure 3. Instructional Time in WesternBalkans and ComparatorsAverage recommended minimum instruction time in a grade ofcompulsory curriculum, 2018, hours800750739700677650619589536Instructional time, a key determinantof learning, is also crucial for helping tosustain the quality of education during thepandemic, but Western Balkans countriesalready have relatively little instructionaltime for the core curriculum. Before theoutbreak, their school systems had relativelylow minimum instructional hours per gradein the compulsory curriculum compared toneighboring EU countries. For example, asof 2018 average recommended minimuminstruction times per grade were 739 hoursin the EU28, 628 in Serbia, 575 in Albania,and 536 in Montenegro.18 During normaltimes, then, depending on the Western Balkancountry students attending school as expected40017 Data from Eurostat. Overall digital skills are measured by the EUsurvey of ICT usage in households and by individuals. This is basedon a composite indicator derived from selected activities performedby individuals aged 16–74 on the internet in four specific areas:information, communication, problem solving, and contentcreation.18 Eurydice (2018) and OECD. Note: Recommended minimuminstruction time is the instruction time specified in the regulationsor policy documents of education authorities.6 Education619628599575550500694661600Minimum Instructional Time682689540450MNE BIH ALB LTU LVA POL MKD SRB EST SVK SVN HUN CZE EU28Source: Eurydice and OECD.Learning Loss: What is the estimatedimpact of COVID-19 on learning in theWestern Balkans?Before the global pandemic broke out,Western Balkan education systems alreadyfaced serious challenges. To varying degrees,they do not deliver the skills the labor marketneeds. A review of PISA 2018 scores by countryshows that on average 53 percent of students dono acquire the basic skills necessary to functioneffectively in a modern labor force, comparedto 23 percent in OECD countries (Annex 1).Over 78 percent of 15-year-olds in Kosovo, andover 50 percent in Albania, North Macedonia,and Montenegro ar
The RER No. 17 is a collection of notes on the Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 that will be pub-lished in three parts. The first part was launched on April 29 and focused on the macroeconomic impact of COVID-19. This second part shows how the macroeconomic impact affects the people in the region. It discusses the social impact of COVID-19 in the Western Balkans in six separate RER notes .
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