Who Won?: Statistical Election Fraud Detection And Its .
Who Won?: Statistical Election Fraud Detection and its LimitsEVT ’06Walter R. Mebane, Jr.Cornell University
accuracy, errors, fraud, transparency, legitimacy usability– ballots (FL butterfly, CA recall, Ohio ballot crawl) technologies– paper (Mexico 2006)– punchcards, optical DRE (OH 2004)– electronic (FL 2004) policy and practice– auditability (transaction logs, FL 2004)– allocation (Franklin County, OH, 2004)– provisionals (OH 2004)
usability– ballots in the 2000 presidential election in Florida
The Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot
Jasper, SC35051015202530Palm Beach, FL 5Studentized Residual from Expected Vote for BuchananBoxplots of Studentized Residuals in U.S. Counties, by StateOrleans, LAAK AZFLIDKS MA MN MT NE NM OH PA TN VA WIAL CA GAILKY MD MO NC NH NV OK SC TX VT WVAR COIAINLA ME MS ND NJ NY OR SD UT WA WY
0.0150.0100.0000.005Palm Beach 0.005Election Day Minus Absentee Proportion for Buchanan2000 Election-Day Minus Absentee Ballot Support for Buchanan inFlorida Counties0100,000300,000500,000Total Number of Presidential Votes Cast
Votes and Allocated Overvotes in Florida, 2000 PresidentialElectionVote CountsBushGore2,912,7902,912,253Unambiguous Write-ins477732Ambiguous Write-ins220812Two-mark Overvotes15,23639,148Multiple-mark Overvotes8,35529,328All Allocated Overvotes24,28870,020Certified Results:Certified TotalUncounted Election-day Ballots:
Number of Allocated Ballots, 2000 Presidential Election, NORC DataTwo 9325,1031,2355,731Votomatic—Palm 21,4565,603Datavote—One Page2484073771,053Datavote—Two Pages385390317533Optical Central—One Column2625574419081,9962,9981,1953,096Optical Precinct5109424361,120Opt. Prec.—Columbia, Escambia3391,0935281,72319184762Optical Central—Two ColumnsHand (Union)
Ratio of Allocated Ballots to Certified Vote CountsTwo 0070.0160.0040.017Votomatic—Palm 080.0010.005Datavote—One Page0.0110.0230.0170.060Datavote—Two Pages0.0190.0380.0150.052Optical Central—One Column0.0050.0150.0090.025Optical Central—Two Columns0.0210.0390.0130.040Optical Precinct0.0010.0010.0000.001Opt. Prec.—Columbia, Escambia0.0040.0230.0060.036Hand (Union)0.0080.0130.0200.044
Estimated True Votes Among the Overvotes, NORC DataTwo e Page712842060391887Datavote—Two Pages225283106385331668Opt Central—One Col1854853147094991,194Opt Central—Two Col6532,3311802,2098334,541Optical Precinct285807928933781,701Columbia, 2610,93946,465Total
usability– ballots in the 2003 California governor recall election
-----PERFThis stub shall be removedby the Election Officer andhanded to the voter BEFOREplacing the ballot into thevoting device.OFFICIAL BALLOT /STATEWIDE SPECIAL ELECTION /CITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO /TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2003 / 2003 107-----PERFOFFICIAL BALLOT /STATEWIDE SPECIAL ELECTION /CITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO /TUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2003 / 2003 10 7VERSION: 610308251134ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 12INSTRUCTIONS TO VOTERS: COMPLETE THE ARROW POINTING TO YOUR CHOICE LIKE THIS:TO VOTE FOR A QUALIFIED WRITE-IN CANDIDATE, WRITE THE PERSON'S NAME ON THE BLANK LINEPROVIDED AND COMPLETE THE ARROW.ArtistARIANNA HUFFINGTONLEMIKE MCNEILLYSTATE -RepublicanAuthor/Columnist/Mother/Shall GRAY DAVIS be recalled(removed) from the office ofGovernor?MIKE P. MCCARTHYUsed Car DealerPIndependentIndependent/ART BROWNFilm Writer/DirectorDemocratic/GRAY DAVIS()BOB MCCLAINCivil EngineerYES/TOM MCCLINTOCKState SenatorNO/IndependentRepublicanJOEL BRITTONRetired Meat PackerAUDIE BOCKEducator/Small BusinesswomanIndependentDemocratic/Candidates to succeed GRAYDAVIS as Governor if he isrecalled:.JONATHAN MILLERSmall Business OwnerBusinessmanA.Vote for One/MICHAEL J. WOZNIAKRetired Police OfficerJBusiness ExecutiveADemocraticCollege StudentGreen/Radio Producer/BusinessmanNATHAN WHITECLOUD WALTONIndependentFinancial PlannerGreenWJAMES M. VANDEVENTER, JR.Business Intelligence essmanRepublicanDemocraticIndependent/VIP N W. BEARDBusinessmanWRepublicanRepublicanED BEYERChief Operations OfficerRepublican/PAUL W. VANNCHUCK WALKER/BADI BADIOZAMANI/VAN VOReal Estate nesswomanDANIEL WATTSMAURICE WALKERS/SCOTT A. MEDNICKDORENE MUSILLIStudentBusinessman/Father/Entrepreneur/CARL A. MEHRGRAY DAVISDemocraticVIK S. BAJWAM/RepublicanRepublicanJOHN CHRISTOPHER BURTONCivil Rights LawyerCRUZ M. BUSTAMANTELieutenant GovernorMIndependentDemocraticFold
-----PERFThis stub shall be removedby the Election Officer andhanded to the voter BEFOREplacing the ballot into thevoting device.OFFICIAL BALLOT / BALOTA OFICIALSTATEWIDE SPECIAL ELECTION / ELECCIÓN ESTATAL ESPECIALCITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO / CIUDAD Y CONDADO DE SAN FRANCISCOTUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2003 / MARTES, 7 DE OCTUBRE, 2003-----PERFOFFICIAL BALLOT / BALOTA OFICIALSTATEWIDE SPECIAL ELECTION / ELECCIÓN ESTATAL ESPECIALCITY AND COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO / CIUDAD Y CONDADO DE SAN FRANCISCOTUESDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2003 / MARTES, 7 DE OCTUBRE, 2003VERSION: 690308251102ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 12MIKE MCNEILLYSTATE - ESTADOArtistArtistaShall GRAY DAVIS be recalled(removed) from the office ofGovernor?¿Debería ser GRAY DAVISdestituido (removido) del cargode Gobernador?YES/SÍMIKE P. MCCARTHYUsed Car DealerVendedor de automóviles usadosBOB MCCLAINCivil EngineerIngeniero civilTOM MCCLINTOCKNOCandidates to succeed GRAYDAVIS as Governor if he isrecalled:Los candidatos a suceder aGRAY DAVIS como Gobernadoren caso de quesea destituido:Vote for One / Vote por UnoMICHAEL J. WOZNIAKRetired Police OfficerOficial de policía jubiladoDemocraticDemócrataDANIEL WATTSCollege StudentEstudiante universitarioGreenVerdeNATHAN WHITECLOUD WALTONStudentEstudianteMAURICE WALKERReal Estate AppraiserTasador inmobiliarioCHUCK WALKERBusiness Intelligence AnalystAnalista de inteligencia licanRepublicanoState SenatorSenador estatalJONATHAN MILLERSmall Business OwnerPropietario de pequeña empresaCARL A. MEHRBusinessmanHombre de negociosSCOTT A. MEDNICKBusiness ExecutiveEjecutivo de empresaDORENE a/mujer de negociosLEINSTRUCTIONS TO VOTERS: COMPLETE THE ARROW POINTING TO YOUR CHOICE LIKE THIS:TO VOTE FOR A QUALIFIED WRITE-IN CANDIDATE, WRITE THE PERSON'S NAME ON THE BLANK LINEPROVIDED AND COMPLETE THE ARROW.INSTRUCCIONES PARA VOTANTES: COMPLETE LA FLECHA QUE SEÑALA SU SELECCIÓN, DE ESTE MODO:PARA VOTAR POR UN CANDIDATO NO LISTADO CALIFICADO, ESCRIBA EL NOMBRE DE LA PERSONA ENLA LÍNEA EN BLANCO PROVISTA Y COMPLETE LA FLECHA.ARIANNA HUFFINGTONRepublicanRepublicanoPAUL W. VANNFinancial PlannerPlanificador financieroJAMES M. VANDEVENTER, JR.Salesman/BusinessmanVendedor/hombre de negociosIndependentIndependienteART BROWNIndependentIndependienteFilm Writer/DirectorGuionista y director de cineDemocraticDemócrataJOEL BRITTONIndependentIndependienteRetired Meat PackerEmpacador de carne jubiladoIndependentIndependienteAUDIE BOCKRepublicanRepublicanoEducator/Small BusinesswomanDemocraticEducadora/propietaria de pequeña empresa DemócrataVIK S. reneurHombre de negocios/padre/empresarioDemocraticDemócrataBADI taRepublicanRepublicanoVAN VORadio Producer/BusinessmanProductor de radio/hombre de ritor/ejecutivoVIP BHOLAAttorney/BusinessownerAbogado/propietario de empresaJOHN W. BEARDBusinessmanHombre de anoRepublicanRepublicanoED ublicanRepublicanoChief Operations OfficerFuncionario principal de operacionesJOHN CHRISTOPHER BURTONCivil Rights LawyerAbogado de derechos civilesCRUZ M. BUSTAMANTELieutenant dentIndependienteDemocraticDemócrataFold
usability– ballots in the 2000 presidential election in Ohio
The Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot
technologies– paper: Mexico 2006
Frequency of Digits according to Benford’s 85second
Mexico 2006 Presidential Vote Second-digit Benford’s Law 109.01254.816.6Baja 115.35.644.612.8Distrito 23.710.6Nuevo 919.8Veracruz4,73614.09.519.175.228.7All
Districts that are FDR rejects for the 2BL test for multiple TRITO FEDERAL.13xDISTRITO FEDERAL.15DISTRITO FEDERAL.4xDISTRITO FEDERAL.7xDISTRITO RACRUZ.17xxJALISCO.8xx
Votos Nulos Residuals in the 2006 Mexican Presidential Election6040200 20votos nulos studentized residual80100Distrito FederalDISTRITO FEDERAL 1DISTRITO FEDERAL 18DISTRITO FEDERAL 26
Votos Nulos Residuals in the 2006 Mexican Presidential Election4003002001000votos nulos studentized residual500MexicoMEXICO 1MEXICO 16MEXICO 22MEXICO 29MEXICO 35MEXICO 5
technologies– Ohio 2004
0.30.20.10.0residual vote rate0.40.5Residual Vote Rate in Ohio 2004 Precincts by Machine cardCuyahogaPunchcardHamilton
Median Residual Vote Rates Among the Residual Vote Outliers,Ohio 2004 PrecinctsMedian RateTechnologyOutliersRestDRE0.02900.0094Optical Central0.04090.0099Optical Precinct0.02400.0067Punchcard0.05930.0159
Ohio, 2004, Kerry versus Bush: 2002 Gubernatorial Vote .0058977.5Logit(Democratic Vote in Intercept)0.640.022428.6Logit(Democratic Vote in 2002)1.040.026639.1t-ratioNotes: Robust (tanh) overdispersed binomial regression estimates.For each precinct or ward, the dependent variable counts thenumber of votes for Kerry versus the number of votes for Bush.Precincts: LQD σ 2.98; tanh σ 2.87; n 5,384; 17 outliers.Wards: LQD σ 9.09; tanh σ 8.91; n 357; no outliers.
Outliers: Vote for Kerry versus Bush: 2002 Gubernatorial VoteRegressorCountyCodeSResCountyCodeSResButlerAFD 4.55HamiltonAQM4.18CuyahogaABE 91.59CuyahogaCQY 4.79LickingACV4.75CuyahogaCRG 6.56LickingACY6.55CuyahogaCRY4.28LorainAKV 4.07CuyahogaCWY 4.22MiamiAAN 8.28GreeneAHJ4.52TuscarawasAAX 4.82HamiltonAPT4.37
technologies– electronic: Florida 2004
Florida Constitutional Amendments on the Ballot in 2004YesNo1Parental Notification of a Minor’s Termination ofPregnancy4,639,6352,534,9102Constitutional Amendments Proposed by Initiative4,574,3612,109,0133The Medical Liability Claimant’s CompensationAmendment4,583,1642,622,1434Authorizes Voters to Approve Slot Machines inParimutuel Facilities3,631,2613,512,1815Florida Minimum Wage Amendment5,198,5142,097,1516Repeal of High Speed Rail Amendment4,519,4232,573,2807Patients’ Right to Know About Adverse Medical Incidents5,849,1251,358,1838Public Protection from Repeated Medical Malpractice5,121,8412,083,864
Miami-Dade Election Day Second-digit Benford’s Law .equalAm. 4 Yes3.39.014.4Am. 4 No5.715.48.910.8Am. 5 Yes17.919.612.012.8Am. 5 No5.823.3Am. 1 Yes2.58.0Am. 6 Yes4.310.2Am. 1 No5.515.5Am. 6 No9.111.3Am. 2 Yes16.723.6Am. 7 Yes17.116.0Am. 2 No7.216.4Am. 7 No8.416.5Am. 3 Yes3.38.5Am. 8 Yes12.725.3Am. 3 No12.912.7Am. 8 No6.510.6CastoritemNote: n 757 precincts. Pearson chi-squared statistics, 9 df.
Miami-Dade Election Day Second-digit Benford’s Law emBenf.equalAm. 4 Yes43.514.413.1Am. 4 No25.415.311.529.2Am. 5 Yes57.62.9Castor12.743.5Am. 5 No25.6135.6Am. 1 Yes43.612.6Am. 6 Yes29.716.3Am. 1 No19.831.9Am. 6 No15.330.8Am. 2 Yes38.727.3Am. 7 Yes53.221.1Am. 2 No11.948.8Am. 7 No136.7318.7Am. 3 Yes78.05.5Am. 8 Yes54.28.3Am. 3 No25.726.8Am. 8 No23.229.1Note: n 5, 326 precinct-machines. Chi-squared statistics, 9 df.
Miami-Dade Machine Randomization False Discovery Rate TestsElection DayCandidateEarly 763Am. 1 yes74314,06861,30216,3180Am. 1 no73714,02041,27216,0780Am. 2 yes74214,06261,29516,2884Am. 2 no73714,01811,22815,8022Am. 3 yes74014,03881,29016,1561Am. 3 no74114,05401,29016,1440
Miami-Dade Machine Randomization False Discovery Rate TestsCandidateElection Dayprecincts items rejectsEarly Votingsite-days items rejectsAm. 4 yes74114,05221,31316,4180Am. 4 no73914,03401,29716,2720Am. 5 yes73613,98801,16815,1741Am. 5 no72713,85601,08214,2780Am. 6 yes74214,06211,30816,3940Am. 6 no74214,06201,27116,1220Am. 7 yes73213,96601,14415,0440Am. 7 no72013,81201,01813,8121Am. 8 yes73914,03401,27216,0860Am. 8 no73514,00001,21915,6782
Broward Machine Randomization False Discovery Rate TestsElection DayCandidateEarly rry76510,5780302200Castor76410,5725302200Am. 1 yes76710,5860302200Am. 1 no76610,5800302200Am. 2 yes76410,5720302200Am. 2 no76310,5660302200Am. 3 yes76510,5762302200Am. 3 no76510,5765302200
Broward Machine Randomization False Discovery Rate TestsCandidateElection Dayprecincts items rejectsEarly Votingsite-days items rejectsAm. 4 yes76610,5846302200Am. 4 no76610,5841302200Am. 5 yes75710,5327302201Am. 5 no75610,5261302201Am. 6 yes76410,5741302200Am. 6 no76410,5740302200Am. 7 yes75910,5444302201Am. 7 no75710,5320302206Am. 8 yes76110,5561302200Am. 8 no76010,5503302200
policy and practice– auditability: Florida 2004
Times When Votes Were Cast on Machines in Selected Precincts onElection Day, Miami-Dade County14precinct 109nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nn nn nn nnnnnnn nn n nprecinct 233n nn n nnn nn niiiii iiiii i iiii iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii iiiiiiiii iiii iii iiiiiii ii iiiiiiiii i i iiii iiiiiiiii iiiiiiii iii i i ii iiiik kk8khhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhggggggggggggg ggggg gggggggggggggg gggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg gggggggggggggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhh hhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhh h hh hhhhh hhhh hhhhiiiiiiii iiiiiiii ii iii ii i iii i i i ii ii ii ii ii ii i ilj j jj j jj j ji i i ii i i ii i i i i ii ii i igggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg gggggg ggggggggggggg ggggggggggggggggg ggffffffffffffffffffffff ffff fff fff f ffff fff fff ff fffff f f fff f f fff ff fff ff f f ff fff f ff f f ff ffffff fffffff f fff fffffffffffffffffffff ffff fff6kllll l l l10kl8kkkkkkkkkkll ljjjjjjjj jjjjjjj jjjjjj j jj jjj jjjj jj j j jj jj j j jj jj j jjj j j j j j j6machineskkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkk kleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeee e4lll l llllllll llll l ll l l ll l lll l l lll lll l l lmachines12mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm dddddd4eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eddddddddddddddddddddddd ddddd ddddd d ddd d d dd ddcccccccdddaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaa aa aaaaa aaa aa a8152bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb bbbbbbbbbbb b bbbb bbb bbbbbbbbbbbbbb bbbbbbbbbbbbb1012aa aaa a a aa aaaaaa a141618814161820precinct 322precinct 326ppppppppp pppp pppppppppppppppppppqqqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqq qqqqqqqqqqqqqqqqp pppppp p p pp ppppppppppooooooooo ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooof fff ffffffff ffffffff fffff fff f fffffffff ffff f f fffffffffffff f ff ffffffff ffffff ffffff ff ff fff eeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeee10i i i i ii i ii i iiiiii ii i i i iii iiiiiiiii i iiiiii i iiiiiii iiii i ii iiii iiiiii iiiiii ii i i i ii i i iiii iihhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhgggggggggggggggggggggg ggggggggggggggggggggoooooooooooo nnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn lllllll ll l l ll llllll l l ll ll l llllll lllllll lllll l l l lll l ll l ll ll lllll ll lll l lllllll lllll lkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkk kkk kk kkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkk kj jjjjjjjjjj jj jjj j jjjjjj j jjj j j j j j j j j jjjjjj jj jjj jjjjjjj jjj j jjjjj jjjj jj jjjjjjjj jjjj jj jjj jji iiii iiiiiiiii ii iiiiiiiiiiiii iii iiiii ii i i iiiii ii i iiiiiiii i i i iii ii ii i ii iiii ii i iii i i i iiihhhhhh gggggggggggggggggggggggggg ggggg5kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kk kkkk kkkkkkkkk kkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkkk kkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkjjjj j j jjjjjj j jjj jj jjjjj jjjjj jjjj jj jjj jjjjjjjjjjjjjjj j jjjjj j jj j j j jjjj j jjjjj j j j jj jjjjj j j j jjjjjj jmachineslll ll l lll lllll l lllll ll l lll ll ll llll ll ll llll lll lll l l l l l llll llllll lllll l llll llll l llll l l lll l1012timesnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn nnnnnnnn machinesbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb aaaaaaaaaaaa152ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc ccccc c ccc c cccc c cc c c c cc ccc ccccccc c cfffffffffffffffffffff ffffffffffff fff ff ff fff fff fffffffffffffff ff ff ffffffffff fff ffffffff ffff fff feeeeeeee e eeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeddddddddd dddddddddd dddddddd ddddddddddddddddddddddd ccccc ccccccc cccccc cccc ccccccccccccccccccccccc cccdddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd dddddddddddddddddddddddddddddd dddddddddddddcccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc cccc ccccccccccccccccccccc ccccccc aaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa bb aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 20
policy and practice– machine allocation: Ohio 2004
Franklin County, Ohio, 2004, Voting Machine Allocations byPrecinct Racial CompositionCounts per Voting cinct Racial CompositionVotersCastper HourNovemberLow Prop. African American26217013213Medium Prop. African American30517312226High Prop. African American32416411242
Franklin County, Ohio, 2004, Polls Open Elapsed Time GivenMachines per Registered Voter and Proportion African AmericanRegressorsVariable(Intercept)Log(Machines per Registered Voter)Proportion African AmericanCoef.SEt-ratio1.8188470.05377333.83 0.1413080.009480 14.900.0991890.00872511.37
Voter Turnout: Polls Open Elapsed Time, Machines per RegisteredVoter and Proportion African American RegressorsExpected Voter Turnout at Quartiles of theMachine RatioPolls Open TimeProp. African .4600.5060.5460.4900.5060.524
policy and practice– provisional ballots: Ohio 2004
Ohio 2004, challengers and provisionals:video the vote ohio 2.mov provisional ballot study
Provisional Ballots and Attributes Related to Residential sional( or –)Ever Voted in Ohio? Yes3.10.289.6Ever Voted in Ohio? No9.47.17.3Moved Since Last Voted in Ohio? Yes11.44.415.0aMoved Since Last Voted in Ohio? No1.70.284.2aVoted in Past at Polling Place1.70.277.711.23.919.4At Current Address: Up to Five Years9.12.728.2At Current Address: More than Five1.30.267.326.512.23.02.50.296.1No Vote in Past at Polling PlaceRegistered to Vote in 2004Already RegisteredNotes:aof VotersPercent of the 89.6% of voters previously voting in Ohio.
Provisional Ballots and Election ovisional( or –)Requested Absentee Ballot2.41.017.2No Absentee Ballot3.70.382.4Voted for Kerry4.20.651.4Voted for Bush4.11.423.3Party Identification: Democrat3.70.653.3Party Identification: Republican4.91.916.8Party Identification: Other2.51.016.619.24.69.81.90.280.1Registration QuestionedRegistration Not Questionedof Voters
Provisional Ballots and Personal visional( or –)11.05.18.7Age: 35-55 Years5.31.628.3Age: 55 Years or Older1.60.452.1White3.50.554.8African ucation: High School or Less3.40.743.5Education: Some College3.91.223.2Education: College Graduate4.41.518.6Education: Post-graduate2.91.89.3Age: 34 Years or Youngerof Voters
an assortment of statistical tools can help assess how voting“machines” affect voting accuracy, transparency, fraud, etc. voting “machines” need to be considered in the context ofother administrative decisions and practices how voters, candidates, election officials and others behaveaffects “machine” performance statistical assessments always depend on nonquantitativeknowledge and can only go so far
Radio Producer/Businessman Republican / PAUL W. VANN Financial Planner Republican W . STEPHEN L. KNAPP Engineer Republican L KELLY P. KIMBALL Business Executive Democratic P . CHARLES "
Types of economic crime/fraud experienced Customer fraud was introduced as a category for the first time in our 2018 survey. It refers to fraud committed by the end-user and comprises economic crimes such as mortgage fraud, credit card fraud, claims fraud, cheque fraud, ID fraud and similar fraud types. Source: PwC analysis 2
Types of economic crime/fraud experienced Customer fraud was introduced as a category for the first time in our 2018 survey. It refers to fraud committed by the end-user and comprises economic crimes such as mortgage fraud, credit card fraud, claims fraud, cheque fraud, ID fraud and similar fraud types. Source: PwC analysis 2
Card Fraud 11 Unauthorised debit, credit and other payment card fraud 12 Remote purchase (Card-not-present) fraud 15 Counterfeit Card Fraud 17 Lost and Stolen Card Fraud 18 Card ID theft 20 Card not-received fraud 22 Internet/e-commerce card fraud los
Detection of Fraud Schemes Fraud is much more likely to be detected by tips than by any other method. 2012 Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Inc. 26 Detection of Occupational Frauds 2012 Association of Certified Fraud Examiners, Inc. 27 Why Employees Do Not Report Fraud According to a Business Ethics Study (Association of Certified Fraud Examiners), employees do not .
Fraud by any other name is still fraud “Relatively few occupational fraud and abuse offenses are discovered through routine audits. Most Fraud is uncovered as a result of tips and complaints from other employees.” Association of Fraud
Fraud risk management strategy Fraud prevention Anti-fraud culture Risk awareness Whistleblowing Sound internal control systems A fraud policy statement, effective recruitment policies and good internal controls can minimise the risk of fraud. Fraud detection Performing regular checks. Warning signals/fraud risk indicators:
Auditors are not effectively trained to detect or recognize fraud. One expert noted that fact patterns suggesting that fraud exists (i.e., fraud schemes) are unfamiliar to many auditors because they have not been trained in this area and because fraud is a rare event. Auditors' lack training in fraud detection methods or fraud investigation
Handling Debit Card Fraud STRATEGIZE- Debit card fraud and disputes must have a strategy based on evolving fraud. INVENTORY - Inventory all types of debit card fraud and how you mitigate fraud. TRAIN - Train your front line and investigators. DOCUMENT - Clearly document the strategy and fraud management and
