DELAWARE POPULATION CONSORTIUM A PROJECTIONS

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DELAWARE POPULATION CONSORTIUMANNUAL POPULATION PROJECTIONSOctober 29, 2020Version 2020.0Dover, Delaware

Table of ContentsIntroduction. 1History . 2Methodology . 5A. Population Projections 2010 to the Year 2050State of Delaware .A-1Kent County .A-12City of Dover.A-23New Castle County .A-25City of Newark .A-36City of Wilmington .A-38Sussex County .A-48Map of Delaware .A-59B. Appendices (Supplemental Estimates, Projections and Population Pyramids)Appendix 1ACS Place Estimates (2010-2019) and Place Projections 2020-2050.B-1Appendix 2Seasonal Population Projections by County .B-4Appendix 3Delaware Population Pyramids 2020 and 2050 .B-6Appendix 4Population Pyramids Delaware Counties 2020 .B-7

IntroductionThe Delaware Population Consortium (DPC) is pleased to continue its program of providing40-year population and employment projections for the State, the counties, and for selectedmunicipalities. (The DPC was codified by the State in 2019 with its inclusion in Title 29 of theDelaware Code by SB7). These projections incorporate new information provided to or generated byDPC members and other agencies at the federal, state, and local level through 2019.The 2020 version Delaware Population Projections Series is published in PDF format and as aseries of EXCEL spreadsheets on the web site of the Delaware Population Consortium.1 This site alsocontains supporting materials, information about the Consortium, and any special reports or studiespublished by the Consortium.The 2018 projections reflect a minor decrease of a 1,000 in the state’s total population overlast year’s projections at 2050. These data incorporate the actual births and deaths since 2010, thelatest Bureau of Census estimates, and the latest migration data from the IRS. Internally, Kent Countyprojections decreased by roughly 5,000 as of 2050, with an increase of 7,000 in Sussex County. NewCastle County projections decreased by roughly 3,000 by 2050 over the 2017 projection.In 1997, the DPC issued its first set of projections and estimates on special topics of interest topolicy-makers, planners, and the general public related to the annual projections. Projections areprovided for all municipalities in the state. More detailed projections are provided for Dover, Newark,and Wilmington. In addition, projections of populations residing in normally vacant seasonal units inthe period June through August are offered for discussion. These projections do not includepopulations in hotels, motels, camp grounds, and RV sites or day trippers. These are all under studythis year and will be reported when ography/dpc.shtml1

HistoryThere were many generators of population projections prior to the founding of the DelawarePopulation Consortium in 1975. Every new state or local jurisdiction’s capital project or proposedprogram seemed to generate a new set of projections.Few were comprehensive in content orgeographic coverage. Most studies provided only statewide or, at best, countywide coverage. Otherstudies were localized to single school districts or sewer districts. These projections were oftendeveloped to deal with specific issues, and included projections of the elderly population, of schoolage children, or simply the number of households.These projections were rarely produced with standardized, accepted methodologies. Therewas no assurance that common and nationally recognized techniques for forecasting and projectingwere used. Methodologies ranged from build-out scenarios based on existing zoning to straight-lineprojection of past trends. They were frequently arbitrarily adjusted for “local factors.”The resulting projections were inconsistent and conflicting. For example, there were sixdifferent governmental reports on comprehensive development planning and population change inNew Castle County in the decade spanning the late 1950’s and 1960’s. Those studies includedprojections of 1980 County populations ranging from 512,900 persons to 672,000 persons versus theUS Census Bureau’s count of 398,115 persons living in New Castle County in 1980.These six studies were generated by different interest groups and at different levels ofgovernment. Each used different starting and ending points. There was no system to evaluate theresults over time, and no systematic approach to updating these projections. Many of these projectionswere issued by consultants whose involvement ended with the completion of a contract.The Delaware Population Consortium was formed in 1975, with the goal of “providing acontinuing forum for debate and discussion of matters relating to state and local population growth.2”Parties interested in a common set of reliable projections were brought together under the sponsorshipof the State Planning Office; they called themselves the Delaware Population Consortium (DPC).Although the State Planning Office provided sponsorship and technical support, direction was byconsensus of the participants. The University of Delaware’s Division of Urban Affairs prepared theinitial report under contract with the State Planning Office and financed through a comprehensiveplanning grant from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development.2Delaware Population Growth, 1975: University of Delaware, Division of Urban Affairs2

The original core members of the DPC were from several departments of State government,the three counties, the Cities of Newark and Wilmington, WILMAPCO (the federally designatedmetropolitan planning organization for transportation), and the 208 Aerated Waste TreatmentManagement Program, with technical and methodological assistance provided by the University ofDelaware.In time, the program and the DPC membership has grown to include statewiderepresentation from private utilities, citizens' groups, non-profit organizations, community, andbusiness interests.The DPC effort is guided by a set of objectives. They were developed early on and have beenvirtually unchanged over the last 40 years. They include:1.A single set of projections, in the public domain and widely disseminated to all users ofdemographic data.2.A long-term horizon of forty years starting with the most recent Decennial Census andcontinuing by single (for selected years) and five-year intervals.3.A single methodology fine-tuned over time.4.A regular annual release date during the month of October of each year, to ensure apredictable flow of information around which policy and decision-making can be built ormonitored.5.On-going review and update as required.6.Projections for a consistent set of geographic areas including the State, each county,Wilmington, Dover and Newark.The DPC is recognized in the Delaware Code Title 29 as of October 2019. The organizationconsists of the Committee-of-the-Whole, a technical or steering committee, administrative supportstaff, and technical support staff.The Committee-of-the-Whole is composed of any group or persons who have an interest indemographic projections. As a result, the composition of the committee-of-the-whole is never exactlythe same from year to year. The Committee-of-the-Whole usually gathers only for the annual meeting.Its role is to comment on and adopt a projection series recommended by the steering committee.The steering committee is composed of a core committee of professional demographers,planners, analysts, economists, and other interested persons. Its role is to gather, monitor, and analyzerelevant information about changes in births, deaths, migration and employment.3

Volunteers are selected from the Committee-of-the-Whole to staff the project.Theorganization is governed by a set of by-laws3. A committee Chair, a Vice-Chair, and a Secretary areelected annually.The steering committee includes participants from the University of Delaware’s Center forApplied Demography & Survey Research, the Delaware Department of Education, the DelawareHealth Statistics Center of the Delaware Department of Health and Social Services, the DelawareOffice of State Planning Coordination, the Delaware State Housing Authority, and members from thecounty and city planning departments, WILMAPCO, The Dover/Kent MPO, and DELDOT.The process used by DPC to produce an annual projection series is straightforward and is tiedto releases of information throughout the calendar year. The previous year’s projection series isevaluated against annual US Census estimates (FSCPE). The Technical Committee identifies anysignificant changes or newly recognized trends.The steering committee deliberates and produces a draft report in tabular form. The draft andrevisions are produced during the spring months. The draft is then distributed to the members of theCommittee-of-the-Whole, based on the last annual meeting’s attendance, as well as any interestedparty.The product and methodology are reviewed at an annual meeting, usually held in October. Atthis time there is discussion of next year’s product, which may include changes or refinements in thecontent of the projections, or how significant events might influence the base data and mography/documents/dpc/dpc-by-laws.pdf4

MethodologyThe projection process begins with the 2010 age-race-gender distribution adjusted to July 1,2010 (obtained from the US Bureau of Census) for the jurisdiction being projected. This distributionis comprised of 102 separate age cohorts beginning with the 0 age group and ending with the 100-andover age group. The 2010 counts are adjusted to the mid-year and 2010-2019 yearly FSCPE estimatesare used to benchmark these projections. The projections also reflect the 2019 race-gender-origindistributions provided by the Census Bureau. The race component now utilizes new race categories,namely white alone non-Hispanic, black alone non-Hispanic, Hispanic, and other non-Hispanic.Appropriate survival rates, derived from Delaware mortality rates, are applied to each single-year, agerace-gender cohort. A ten-year survival rate is used to account for mortality. Each age group has itsown unique survival rate. Applying the appropriate survival rate to the 0 age group, for example,yields the likely number of persons alive in 2010 who will survive to age 1 in 2011. This procedure isfollowed until all age groups have been survived with the exception of the birth cohort (age 0 in 2011).The 0 age group in 2011 is formed from all of those persons expected to be born during the2010-2011 period. This is estimated by applying an annual birth rate for females in each separate agegroup beginning with 10 and ending with 49. For example, if the single-year fertility rate for femalesage 30 is multiplied by the number of females in that age group in the base year, the result is the likelynumber of births for those females over the one-year projection period. This is done for all relevantage groups. These estimates are summed to produce the new birth cohort. The birth cohort is thensurvived to 2015. This procedure is applied for each subsequent time period from 2011 to 2050. Theend result of this two-step process is a projection of population growth due solely to natural increase,which must be adjusted for net migration.The conventional procedure to adjust the projections for net migration is to calculate amigration rate for each age-race-gender category for some past time period (such as 2005-2010), andto make assumptions about how those rates will change in the future. This procedure works well if themigration rates from the reference period accurately predict the future. If the nature of migration ischanging, the result will be unsatisfactory. The rapid change in migration during the 1980s, forexample, stands in stark contrast to that of the 1970s. To address that weakness, and to integrateemployment projections with the population projections, another method is used to estimate migration(see Migration on page 7). These estimates are modified based on the FSCPE components ofpopulation change issued annually.5

Mortality.Mortality rates are based on age-by-sex-by-race/Hispanic origin, single-year survival ratescalculated from data on the deaths of Delaware residents from 2008-2012 and the underlyingpopulation for each cohort in the 2008-2012 interval. Using actual deaths through 2019, survival ratesare scaled proportionately so the estimated number of deaths agrees with the actual data. This scalingprocedure was followed separately for the State, each of the counties, and the City of Wilmington,resulting in a slightly different set of mortality assumptions for each. Projections for the cities ofNewark and Dover utilize the county-wide rates since the populations are considered too small toproduce stable rates.Fertility.The assumptions for fertility rates were derived using births to Delaware residents from 20082012 and the underlying female population groups from the same period. Using these as a base, therates were scaled proportionally to produce the estimated number of births in 2014-2019 using actualbirths through 2019. Following the same procedures as in mortality above, estimated births in 2016were allowed to influence the 2019 projection. This scaling procedure was followed separately for theState, each of the counties, and the City of Wilmington, resulting in a slightly different set of fertilityassumptions for each. Projections for the cities of Newark and Dover utilize the county-wide ratessince the populations are too small to produce stable rates.Labor-force.Resident employment is calculated to balance the employment forecast with the populationprojections. This calculation requires a number of assumptions. The first is taken from the Bureau ofCensus CPS March 2018-2020, which allows computation of the probability of labor forceparticipation for each age-sex/Hispanic origin cohort from 2020 through 2050. Applying these ratesallows the derivation of a theoretical labor-force. An unemployment rate is then applied to thattheoretical labor-force. That rate is the same as the one used in generating the employment forecasts.The result of this calculation is employment by place of residence. Resident jobs are derived fromemployment by place of residence by making adjustments for self-employment, agricultural jobs, andworkers with multiple-jobs. BLS also provides labor force estimates from the Current PopulationSurvey (CPS), Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), Current Employment Statistics (CES),and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). These are blended to update currentemployment and establish a starting point for forecasts.6

Bureau of Labor Statistics' estimates and forecasts are used to establish an employmentstarting point. A single adjustment is required to generate an estimate for resident jobs from theemployment forecasts. Net commuting (i.e., in-commuters less out-commuters) is used to adjust theemployment forecast.Migration.Employment (i.e., number of jobs) is usually forecast using an economic model as opposed toa demographic model. It is assumed that there will be a sufficient number of persons to fill those jobs.If the projected population due to natural increase is too low, then net in-migration is required to fillthe jobs. Alternatively, if the projected population is too high, net out-migration will occur. In eithercase, the migration rates from the reference year are modified proportionally to produce sufficient netmigration to allow the employment forecasts and the population projection to balance. The finalamount of net migration is an output of that calculation. If that estimate seems too high, adjustmentsmust be made to the employment forecasts or to one of the other assumptions in the labor-forceestimate.Adjustments.Projecting population is a risky business and is dependent on the quality of the assumptions.Those can change from year to year as better data becomes available. Thus, it is imperative that theprojections be reviewed annually. This report is the result of the Consortium's ongoing monitoringand review process.There are data that can be used to adjust the path of the projection without going through amajor revision. First, the annual population estimates (not forecasts) provided by the Federal StateCooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE) is useful for monitoring the total population. Second,actual birth and death statistics issued by National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and theDelaware Health Statistics Center are quite valuable.Third, school enrollment data, estimatedmigration from the Bureau of Census and the IRS, Medicare enrollment data from HCFA, and the datafrom the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) and American Community Survey (ACS)can help guide structural changes in the age groups. The Census Bureau also annual provides singleyear estimates of the population of the state. Finally, data from the US Department of Labor trackschanges in employment growth.It is imperative that these indicators are tracked and that theprojections are modified annually. These projections were carefully benchmarked to known data in2019 (e.g. actual births, deaths, and estimated migration for 2010-2019).7

Seasonal populations.Seasonal populations are those residing in what are usually considered “vacant seasonal” unitsduring the months of June through August. The principal assumptions are that these units will beoccupied 80% of the time including all weekdays and weekends. In addition, the size of the group inresidence during the period is assumed to be 3.3 persons. These factors were obtained from publishedstudies of seasonal populations in Florida and Michigan.To calculate the number of housing units, the number of full-time households for each timeperiod 2015-2050 are taken from the latest DPC projections. The number of vacant units is estimatedusing the number of full-time households divided by the typical occupancy rate observed in theprevious five-year periods. It is held constant over the entire projection period 2015-2050. Theindividual categories of vacancies share the total vacancies observed in 2015. Then the numbers ofvacant seasonal residences calculated are expanded to population using the factors provided above.The American Community Survey provides annual estimates of vacancy status including seasonal usewhich are incorporated into the projections.Municipal populations.Two series were used provided. The first series is based on the compound annual growth ratesof population using as a base the 2010 Decennial Census population for each municipality which thenis applied over the period 2020-2050. A second series is based on the share of each city’s populationof the respective county’s population observed 2010-2019 and then projected for the period 20202050. Annual population estimates for all Delaware municipalities are published annual and are usedto bench mark the projections.8

Notes.All fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions have changed to better reflect conditions in2019.One other point needs clarification. In the 2010 Census, respondents were permitted to checkup to six races. The projection process cannot cope with that differentiation since mortality, fertility,and migration rates would have to be calculated for very small groups. To avoid that problem, allmultiple race individuals were reclassified to the Other race non-Hispanic category.Finally, there are several categories on the summary page for the State and each county thatrequire definition:Population Change - The net increase (decrease) in persons over the projected period;Births - The total number of births over the over the projected period;Deaths - The total number of deaths over the projected period;Net Migration - The total number of persons moving into the area less the number of persons leavingthe area over the projected period;Household Change - The net increase (decrease) in households over the projected period, which isindicative of the number of housing units required;Jobs by Place of Work - The number of jobs held by civilians working in the area for the projectedperiod excluding self-employed, private household workers, and those directly working on farms;Jobs by Residence - The number of jobs held by the employed persons for the projected period,including the jobs of persons who hold more than one job;Net Commuting - The number of persons coming into the area to work each day less the number ofpersons leaving the area to work each day during the projected period;9

Delaware Population ConsortiumPopulation Projection SeriesOctober 31, 2020State of DelawareTotal Population[As of July ,401Net 0320,705Household tal Labor 1224,45724,71224,97225,19825,32325,340Unpaid 132,7132,7132,7132,7132,7132,713Jobs by Place of 834456,429453,773Jobs by ,522-18,215-18,861-19,451-20,017Population t Commuting2020202520302035204020452050979,920 1,003,843 1,024,158 1,040,111 1,050,497 1,055,144 1,055,289391,581*Represents a five-year total beginning with specified yearVersion 2020.0A-1

Delaware Population ConsortiumPopulation Projection SeriesOctober 31, 2020State of DelawareTotal Population[As of July 203020352040204520500 - 9275 - 05310 5,61815 6,04320 6,67525 8,25630 0,25635 2,56340 6,93145 6,14550 5,00755 1,96960 7,26565 2,31570 2,49975 6,95380 1,93385 260948,923956,831965,483973,770979,920 1,003,843 1,024,158 1,040,111 1,050,497 1,055,144 1,055,289Version 2020.0A-2

Delaware Population ConsortiumPopulation Projection SeriesOctober 31, 2020State of DelawareTotal Population[As of July 20302035204020452050MALES0 - 45 - 910 -1415 -1920 -2425 -2930 -3435 -3940 -4445 -4950 -5455 -5960 -6465 -6970 -7475 -7980 -8485 10152025303540455055606570758085- 4- 541543,980Version 2020.0A-3

Delaware Population ConsortiumPopulati

The 2020 version Delaware Population Projections Series is published in PDF format and as a series of EXCEL spreadsheets on the web site of the Delaware Population Consortium.1 This site also contains supporting materials, information about the Consortium, and any special reports or studies published by the Consortium.

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