2013 Global Market Outlook For Soybeans, Soymeal And Corn

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2013 Global Market Outlook for Soybeans,Soymeal and CornJohn BaizeUSSEC LuncheonInternational Production & Processing ExpoAtlanta, GeorgiaJanuary 30, 20123

2012 Was A Very Unique Year For the first time in more than 3 decades the U.S. Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay suffered droughts in the samecalendar year.South American soybean production in 2012 was reducedby 20.4 mmt or 15.1% versus 2011.U.S. soybean production was reduced by 2.14 mmt or2.5% versus 2011. Late rains boosted production.In total soybean production in North and South America in2012 was at least 21.9 mmt less than in 2011.Water levels on Mississippi River are very low andinterfering with barge shipments to Gulf.

2012 Has Been A Very Unique Year Argentina’s corn crop in 2012 was reduced by 4.2 mmt (16.8%) versus 2011.Fortunately, because of a large winter crop of corn in Braziltotal South American corn production in 2012 was 11.875mmt (12.7%) greater than in 2011.U.S. corn production in 2012 was 40.1 mmt (12.7%) lessthan in 2011.There were more quality problems (aflatoxin) with U.S. cornfrom 2012 crop because of heat and drought.It remains exceptionally dry in the Midwest and GreatPlains.

North and South American Soybean ProductionCalendar Years 1985 - 2012160140120MMT100806040200North AmericaSouth America

Global Soybean Production by Country2012/13 Marketing 1%Argentina21%United States31%

Global Soybean Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and Forecast for sumption2008/092010/112012/13

Annual Growth in Global Soybean Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and Forecast for 6.986.484.3454.230-2.01-5-10-15-9.01

Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Cotton, and RicePercentage Change in Global Consumption1990/91 – 2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13160%Soybean demand up 151%; corn up by 85%, wheat up by only 24%140%120%Change otton20002002Soybeans2004Rice2006Wheat200820102012

U.S. Average Soybean Yields1984 –2012Surprisingly Good Yields in 2.562.462.382.29 2.302.24 2.281.892.532.96 2.922.672.662.62 2.622.532.90 95199619982000200220042006200820102012

U.S. Soybean Production2000 – 201210090%8075.06MMT7085.02 83.5178.6775.0191.42 90.6187.0080.7584.19 82.0672.8666.7860504030201002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

U.S. Soybean Supply and DemandUSDA Estimates for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13MMTAttributeBegin StocksProductionImportsTotal SupplyCrushExportsSeed/ResidualTotal UseEnd 5489.285.85USDA 6082.060.5487.2143.6936.613.5183.563.67

Value of U.S. Soybean Crop1991-2012

U.S. Soymeal Supply and DemandUSDA Estimates for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13MMTAttributeBegin StocksProductionImportsTotal SupplyDomestic UseExportsTotal UseEnd 70.3182011/12USDA U.S. forecasted to export 0.95 mmt (10.7%) less soymeal in 2012/130.27234.65.2335.1526.997.8934.88.27

U.S. Soybean Crush and Exports2000/10 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 1002000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13CrushExports

U.S. Soymeal Exports and Consumption2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 6.667.307.998.3810.127.718.248.847.894.6902000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13ExportsConsmption

U.S. New-Crop Soybean and Soymeal Export SalesJanuary 19, 2012 and January 17, 201327% More Soybeans and 42.3% More Soymeal Sold This /13SoybeansSoymeal

Global Soymeal Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 002000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Argentina and Brazil Soybean Harvested Area2000 – 20133025Million 416.41523.518.319.517.616.012.610502001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Soybean Imports by China and Rest of World1995/96 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/137060MMT5040302010095/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13ChinaRest of World

China’s Soymeal Consumption1971/72 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/136050MMT4030201001970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

China’s Soybean Imports2000/01 – 2012/13 and Trend to 2022/23Trend Suggests China May Be Importing 45 MMT More Soybeans by 2022/23

China’s Annual Pork Production2000 -2012Production Up by 33 2003200420052006200720082009201020112012

China’s Annual Broiler Meat Production2000 -2013Production Up by 52 912.5511.299.279.28200020019.569.9010.3510.00 10.20200320048642020022005200620072010201120122013

India’s Soymeal Exports and Consumption2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 2012/13India Soon Will Consume More Soymeal Than It ts20062007Consumption20082009201020112012

India’s Soymeal Consumption2006/07 – 2012/13 and Trend to 2022/23Trend Suggests India Will Consume Over 8 MMT/Year in a Decade

Soymeal Consumption by Middle East and North Africa2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast fro /012002/032004/052006/07Middle East2008/09North Africa2010/112012/13

Latin America’s Consumption of Soymeal2002/03 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13Brazil Is Main Consumer in South 09Central America2010/11South America2012/13

EU Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for .913.212.712.511.811.310502000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13SoybeansSoymeal

Japan’s, South Korea’s and Taiwan’s Imports of Soybeans2000/01 –2011/12 and Forecast for 006/07South Korea2008/09Taiwan2010/112012/13

Southeast Asia’s Imports of Soybeans and Soymeal2000/01 –2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 202000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13SoybeansSoymeal

Global Soybean Consumption2000/01 – 2012/13 and Trend to 2022/23If Trend Continues Worlds Need 70 MMT Additional Soybeans in a DecadeThat’s More Than Brazil Produced in 82010201220142016201820202022

Global Corn Production and Consumption2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/131000900884851794MMT800772716688700700 on821 817801Consumption783832864874852

U.S. Average Corn Yields1984 – 2011 and USDA Estimate for 2012Major Droughts in 1988 and 0220042006200820102012

U.S. Corn Supply and DemandUSDA Estimates for 2010/11, 2011/12 and 2012/13MMTAttributeBegin Stocks2010/112011/12USDA 54Total ProductionImportsFood & SeedTotal UseEnd Stocks

U.S. Corn Exports and Use for Ethanol Production2009/10 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 012/13

Global Consumption of Corn for Feed and for Food, Seed & Industrial Uses2000/01 – 2011/12 and USDA Forecast for 2012/13Feed Up 95 MMT, FS&I Up 176 0002000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13FeedFood, Seed & Industrial

World’s Largest Corn Producers2012/13 Marketing YearUnited 1Ukraine21India20South Africa14Canada13050100150MMT200250300

World’s Largest Corn Importers2012/13 Marketing YearJapanMexicoKorea, udi 468MMT10121416

U.S. Corn Stocks on September 302001 – 2011 and USDA Forecast for 2011 and 627.624.325.12015.31002001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Global Corn Stocks to Use Ratio2001 – 2012 and USDA Forecast for 201335%30%25%29.6%25.2%21.1%20%16.8%18.5%18.4% 17.8%15.4%15%16.6%17.6%15.0% 15.3%13.3%10%5%0%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Early Outlook for U.S. Corn andSoybean Plantings in 2013 Because corn appears to have been impacted more by 2012 drought than soybeans it is likely economics will favor corn plantings oversoybeans in 2013.However, a major limiting factor to corn plantings in 2013 will be aninadequate planting seed supply as the drought sharply reduced outputof seed corn in 2012.Many farmers also saw much lower yields from corn planted after cornin 2012 and may choose to reduce corn plantings in favor of soybeansto improve rotations.General expectation of analysts is for both corn and soybean plantingsto increase by about 2 million acres in 2013 as a result of lower cottonplantings and increased double-crop soybean plantings.Much will depend on crop insurance price guarantees to be set inFebruary.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Area2001 -2012

Ratio of Average U.S. Corn Yield to Average U.S. Soybean Yield2000 – 2012Corn Yields Are Not Growing Faster Than Soybean Yields4.5Average Corn Yield Divided By Average 3.613.743.513.513.123.02.52.01.51.00.50.02000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Questions?John C. BaizeEmail: jbaize@attglobal.net

Jan 30, 2013 · Argentina’s corn crop in 2012 was reduced by 4.2 mmt (16.8%) versus 2011. Fortunately, because of a large winter crop of corn in Brazil total South American corn production in 2012 was 11.875 mmt (12.7%) greater than in 2011. U.S. corn p

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