GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012
GLOBAL POLL ONAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Guideline)Press Release(members may please customize as necessary)Contact DetailsFor further details please contact:Dr. Ijaz Shafi Gilani:Ms. Rushna Shahid:Irene ZuettelEmail: gilani@gallup.com.pk(Mobile)(Landline)Email: rushna.shahid@gallup.com.pk (Mobile)(Landline)Email: jirene.zuettel@gallup-international.com 92-307-5440148 92-51-2655630 92-307-5440148 92-51-2655630Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details seewebsite: www.wingia.comPage 1 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012OBAMA WINS AGAINST ROMNEY BY A LANDSLIDE GLOBALLYBUT FACES TOUGH COMPETITION AT HOMEGlobal polls shows among those who choose one of the twocandidates, 81% favor Obama while 19% favor RomneyAMERICA’S SOFT POWER: 46% of the world’s youth wantsfranchise to vote in American elections. 57% sayAmerican President heavily impacts daily lives in theircountries. A global straw poll among over 26,000 menand women in over 30 countries shows that if an electionwas held this week, Obama will face tough competitionfrom his republican challenger, Mitt Romney at home butwill win by a landslide in the rest of the world. Globallyamong those who choose one of the two candidates,81% would favor Obama; 19% Romney.Zurich, 11 September 2012 — In a world poll conducted byleading global pollsters, among those who choose to vote one ofthe two candidates, 81% show a preference for Obama againstonly 19% for Romney. Strongest level of support for Obama wasseen in Iceland, Netherlands and Portugal. Romney receivedpreference over Obama in Israel and relatively better support inPakistan and Georgia.Ten weeks before the American elections, leading global pollstershave asked a world-wide sample of over 26,000 men and women:How much would you say is the impact of American President onPage 2 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012the life of your country? 63% said it was high or very high; while29% thought otherwise; 9% were uncertain or said they did notknow. But the surprising answer came when the Question wasfollowed by a probing query: Given your assessment of how muchthe American President affects the life in your country, would yousay people in your country should have the right to vote inAmerican elections? 42% across the world wanted that right. Theaspiration to vote in American elections is particularly strikingamongst the youth of the world. 46% of them (men and womenunder 30 years of age) want the right to vote in Americanelections. In contrast, only 23% over the age of 65 demand votingrights in American Elections. The right to vote gets higher support inChina, Kenya and India. Its support is considerably lower in Japan,Korea and the Hong Kong.HIGHLIGHTS OF FINDINGSA world-wide poll conducted by WIN-Gallup International, anetwork of the world’s top most independent pollsters, askedexactly the same questions in 32 countries across the globe.Page 3 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012SYNOPSIS:1.RIGHT TO VOTE IN AMERICAN ELECTIONSAmerica’s soft power expresses itself through the world’sdesire to seek the right to vote in American elections, as 46%of global youth under 30 and 42% of the population at largesays they want the right to vote in America’s Presidentialelection.2.IMPACT OF AMERICAN PRESIDENT ON DAILY LIFE ACROSS THEWORLDThe global demand of the right to vote in American electionsis strongly linked to the view that the decisions made by theAmerican President effect daily lives in other countries acrossthe world. According to this survey of more than 26,000 menand women, 62% of the world says the impact on the dailylife of their country is either very high or high.3.GLOBAL SUPPORT FOR OBAMA AND ROMNEYThe survey estimates that if American elections were heldglobally, 63% claim they would turn-out to vote for either ofthe two candidates: the incumbent Barack Obama or theRepublican challenger Mitt Romney. Even though the twoseem to tie neck and neck among the American public, theprospects of Obama are much brighter in a globalelectorate, among which he beats Romney by a widemargin: among those who choose one of the twocandidates, 81% favor Obama and 19% favor Romney.Page 4 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012TOP TEN SUPPORTERS OF OBAMA(among those who choose one of the two candidates)Percent of inland95%Italy94%Turkey94%(11 countries because of 2 tying in at 94%)TOP TEN SUPPORTERS OF ROMNEY(among those who choose one of the two candidates)IsraelPercent of na29%Lebanon26%Iraq20%India19%Colombia16%Hong Kong15%Cambroon15%(11 countries because of 2 tying in at 15%)4.GLOBAL ‘APATHY’ AND ANTI-PATHYWhile two thirds of the world (63%) would wish to turn-out andvote for either of the two candidates, the remaining onethird is divided by feelings of ‘apathy’ and ‘anti-apathy’. Thus,20% say they don’t care or don’t know about Americanelections. The analysts of the global group of pollstersPage 5 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012attribute that to Apathy. In addition, a section of the worldconstituting 18% expresses feelings of anti-apathy or hostilityby saying they do not think highly of any of the twocontenders and would vote for ‘Neither’. The pollsters haveattributed this to Antipathy or hostility.5.THE ROLE OF NATIONAL INTEREST, POLICY CHOICES ANDCOMPETENCE IN GLOBAL VOTING BEHAVIOURIt is remarkable that only 23% of global voters who want toelect an American President say their ‘own national interest’is a key driver. A large number of 30% attribute it to policiesof a candidate related to global economy and security,while 41% attribute it to competence and other personalcharacteristics of the candidate.The poll was conducted by the oldest and the largest network ofopinion pollsters affiliated with WIN in 32 countries covering morethan 55% of the world’s population.CommentarybyJean-MarcLeger(President WIN-GallupInternational, the network which runs the Annual barometer ofopinions since 1977)“Opinion polls and market research surveys measure notonly attitudes and behavior but also the aspirations ofconsumers and citizens. Our industry has discovered overthe years that measuring aspirations provides animportant insight into the future behavior of consumers.This particular survey concerns political and electoralaspirations in a globalized world. As the world movestowards becoming one political space, more and morecitizens seek to influence its decision making.Page 6 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Our global poll shows a keen desire across the world toseek influence in American presidential elections,because of the view that the American President enjoysclout much beyond his national borders. This maverickfinding from a global poll may be seen by Americans inboth ways, an intrusion into their sovereign world or anevidence of their soft-power across the globe. The USelection will impact the world and people from all regionsprefer the Obama approach to the Romney one.”METHODOLOGY:The findings are based on a global flash-poll. More than 26,000men and women were interviewed across 5 continents. They weresampled statistically (probability samples) in more than 30countries, covering most of the G-20 nations and others in Asia,Africa, Europe and the Americas. The flash poll across the worldwas conducted in less than 15 working days, mostly during August20 - September 5, 2012. Field work was done face-face, viatelephone and online as identified in the Methods Report. Theglobal polling group founded by Dr. George Gallup in 1947 haspolled the world for 65 years and brings together the world’s topmost global pollsters. Its international headquarters are based inZurich, Switzerland. The group is not related to Gallup Inc.headquartered in Washington DC, with which it disclaims na.shahid@gallup.com.pkSample Size and Mode of Field Work:A total of 26012 persons were interviewed globally. In eachcountry a national probability sample of around 1000 men andwomen was interviewed either face to face (7 countries; n 7,145),viatelephone(15countries;n 9,749)oronline(10 countries; n 9,120). Details are attached. The field work wasconducted during August 2012 - September 2012. In general thePage 7 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012error margin for surveys of this kind is 3-5% at 95% confidencelevel.Weighting:The global average has been computed according to the shareof the covered adult population of the surveyed countries.Page 8 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012List of Tables and Figures (see Ahead)Table 1:Global Impact Scalepg.10Table 2:Extended Voting Right Scalepg.11Table 3:Global support for Obama and Romneypg.12Table 4:Economic and Political Reasons impact the Global VotingBehaviourpg.13Table 5:Matrix of Felt Impactpg.14Table 6:Matrix of Right to Votepg.15Table 7:Complete Results to Questions: Country by Countrypg.16-20Table 8:Complete Results to Questions: Region-wisepg.21-29Table 9:Complete Results to Question: Demographics-wisepg.30-38Appendix:Summary Chart on Methods and List of Countriespg.39-41Page 9 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 1Global Impact Scale(Rank ordered from ‘High’ to ‘Low’)Question: How much, in your view, is the impact of American election on your country, on issuessuch as economic progress, trade, peace etc. In other words how much is the impact of AmericanPresident on what happens in your country?American Elections HighlyImpact economic progress,trade, peace etc. of one’scountryAmerican Election has NoImpact on economic progress,trade, peace etc. of one’scountryGlobal AverageNote:CanadaIsraelJapanBrazilSouth elandTunisiaTurkeyIraqDenmarkNetherlandsHong di 434342403939332928-62This question was not asked in Saudi ArabiaPage 10 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 2Extended Voting Right Scale(Rank ordered from ‘High’ to ‘Low’)Question: Some people say American (Presidential) elections influence the life in my country somuch that I should have the right to vote for American President, do you agree or disagree with thisview?High influence of AmericanElection in life of one’s countryLow influence of AmericanElection in life of one’s nEcuadorSouth KoreaHong manySaudi ArabiaGlobal 18181817151513865-42This question was not asked in Denmark, Germany and Saudi ArabiaPage 11 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 3Global support for Obama and Romney(among those who choose one of the two candidates)(Rank ordered from ‘High’ to ‘Low’)Question: If you were to vote in the American election for President, who would you vote for?SUPPORT FOR OBAMAHigh Supportfor ObamaLow Supportfor Saudi ArabiaAustraliaKenyaTunisiaCanadaSouth KoreaJapanEcuadorCameroonHong akistanIsraelGlobal AverageSUPPORT FOR 8584818074717064593581High Supportfor RomneyLow Supportfor aqIndiaColumbiaHong KongCameroonEcuadorJapanSouth KoreaCanadaTunisiaKenyaAustraliaSaudi dGlobal 544333219Page 12 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 4ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL REASONS IMPACTING ONGLOBAL VOTING BEHAVIOUR(Rank ordered from ‘High’ to ‘Low’)Question: What is the most important reason for making your choice?Policychoicescompetence at maximumPolicy choices andcompetence at minimumGlobal adorFranceCameroonIrelandHong KongGermanyAustraliaCanadaPortugalBrazilSaudi keyChinaSouth 8636260575549434371Page 13 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Question: How much, in your view, is the impact of American election on your country, on issuessuch as economic progress, trade, peace etc. In other words how much is the impact of AmericanPresident on what happens in your country?Table/Figure 5MATRIX OF FELT IMPACTPage 14 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Question: Some people say American (Presidential) elections influence the life in my country somuch that I should have the right to vote for American President, do you agree or disagree with thisview?Table/Figure 6MATRIX OF RIGHT TO VOTEPage 15 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Part 1Country-wise TablesPage 16 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 7.1GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 1: If you were to vote in the America’s election for President, who would you vote for?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average*Countries in alphabetical markEcuadorFinlandFranceGeorgiaGermanyHong udi ArabiaSouth KoreaSwitzerlandTunisiaTurkey26014Sample SizeUnweighted 4%49%22%3%26%12%12%35%6%5%29%27%6%Makes n’t Know / 4%18%8%25%1%17%22%18%30%9%30%0%32%4%18%16%Weighted by Internal Weights (Sent by Countries) SOURCE WIN-GIA Global Poll on American Election, 2012Note 1:2:Global Average is weighted according to Weighting Scheme explained in the Methods ChapterIn some cases the total may not add up to 100 or mismatch with earlier tables to the extent of 1%. Please ignore this,as it is due to round off error.Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details seewebsite: www.wingia.comPage 17 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 7.2GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 2: What is the most important reason for making your choice?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average*Countries in alphabetical markEcuadorFinlandFranceGeorgiaGermanyHong udi ArabiaSouth KoreaSwitzerlandTunisiaTurkey15128Sample SizeUnweighted 3%Policiestowards 4%Policies onWorldEconomyPolicies onWar alityand PersonalBackground23%Competencefor the job ofthe 15%6%Don’t know /no %6%6%56%4%5%3%12%9%3%7%7%Weighted by Internal Weights (Sent by Countries) SOURCE WIN-GIA Global Poll on American Election, 2012Note 1:2:Global Average is weighted according to Weighting Scheme explained in the Methods ChapterIn some cases the total may not add up to 100 or mismatch with earlier tables to the extent of 1%. Please ignore this,as it is due to round off error.Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer amember of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. Werequire that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details see website: www.wingia.comPage 18 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 7.3GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 3: How much, in your view, is the impact of American election on your country, on issues suchas economic progress, trade, peace etc. In other words how much is the impact of American President onwhat happens in your country?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average*Countries in Hong udi ArabiaSouth KoreaSwitzerlandTunisiaTurkey26014Sample SizeUnweighted 01250251126%Very High 12%38%13%30%21%42%16%7%15%6%8%0%27%4%29%33%36%High %20%Small No %1%12%17%13%6%9%10%17%0%1%8%14%10%9%Don’t know / %3%5%7%3%13%23%7%35%15%33%0%9%3%9%11%Weighted by Internal Weights (Sent by Countries) SOURCE WIN-GIA Global Poll on American Election, 2012Note 1: Global Average is weighted according to Weighting Scheme explained in the Methods Chapter2: In some cases the total may not add up to 100 or mismatch with earlier tables to the extent of 1%.Please ignore this, as it is due to round off error.Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details seewebsite: www.wingia.comPage 19 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 7.4GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 4: Some people say American (Presidential) elections influence the life in my country so much thatI should have the right to vote for American President, do you agree or disagree with this view?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average*Countries in alphabetical markEcuadorFinlandFranceGeorgiaGermanyHong udi ArabiaSouth KoreaSwitzerlandTunisiaTurkey26014Sample SizeUnweighted 01250251118%Strongly 10%10%50%29%35%15%28%13%0%49%29%19%22%10%Don’t know /no %31%1%12%24%4%34%14%40%0%11%7%11%5%Weighted by Internal Weights (Sent by Countries) SOURCE WIN-GIA Global Poll on American Election, 2012Note 1: Global Average is weighted according to Weighting Scheme explained in the Methods Chapter2: In some cases the total may not add up to 100 or mismatch with earlier tables to the extent of 1%.Please ignore this, as it is due to round off error.Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details seewebsite: www.wingia.comPage 20 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Part 2Region-wise TablesPage 21 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 8.1GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question #1: If you were to vote in the America’s election for President, who would you vote for?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average2601451%12%18%6%14%REGIONAL CLASSIFICATIONSample SizeUnweighted NAll RegionsNorth AmericaLatin AmericaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeAfricaArab WorldWest AsiaSouth AsiaNorth aChinaOther G-20KoreaTurkeyAustraliaSaudi ArabiaGlobal Flash- PointsIraqPakistanEmerging and otherNations in Asia and LatinAmericaHong KongEcuadorColombiaEmerging and otherNations in WesternObamaRomneyNeitherMakes no differenceDon’t 17%11%Page 22 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: ndsIrelandLebanonPortugalEmerging and otherNations in EasternEuropeRomaniaMacedoniaIsraelCIS/ Former Soviet 4%29%12%18%Cameroon54675%13%8%3%1%Weighted by Wt-1 (Country weights: Shared Population) SOURCE WIN-GIA Global Poll on American Election, 2012Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further detailssee website: www.wingia.comPage 23 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 8.2GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 2: What is the most important reason for making your choice?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average1512823%15%14%19%23%6%REGIONAL CLASSIFICATIONSample SizeUnweighted NAll RegionsNorth AmericaLatin AmericaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeAfricaArab WorldWest AsiaSouth AsiaNorth aChinaOther G-20KoreaTurkeyAustraliaSaudi ArabiaGlobal Flash- PointsIraqPakistanEmerging and otherNations in Asia and LatinAmericaHong KongEcuadorColombiaEmerging and otherNations in WesternEuropeFinlandDenmarkIcelandPolicies towardsPolicies onyour countryWorld EconomyPolicies on Warand NationalSecurityPersonality andPersonalBackgroundCompetence forthe job of theDon’t know / 3%15%11%26%18%17%43%48%58%5%4%7%Page 24 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: erging and otherNations in EasternEuropeRomaniaMacedoniaIsraelCIS/ Former Soviet meroon4818%12%13%36%28%3%Weighted by Wt-1 (Country weights: Shared Population) SOURCE WIN-GIA Global Poll on American Election, 2012Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further detailssee website: www.wingia.comPage 25 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 8.3GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 3: How much, in your view, is the impact of American election on your country, on issuessuch as economic progress, trade, peace etc. In other words how much is the impact of AmericanPresident on what happens in your country?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average2601426%36%20%8%9%REGIONAL CLASSIFICATIONSample SizeUnweighted NAll RegionsNorth AmericaLatin AmericaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeAfricaArab WorldWest AsiaSouth AsiaNorth aChinaOther G-20KoreaTurkeyAustraliaSaudi ArabiaGlobal Flash- PointsIraqPakistanEmerging and otherNations in Asia andLatin AmericaHong KongEcuadorColombiaEmerging and otherNations in WesternVery High ImpactHigh ImpactSmall ImpactNo ImpactDon’t know / 14%10%5%17%3%56488%42%35%7%8%Page 26 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: ndsIrelandLebanonPortugalEmerging and otherNations in EasternEuropeRomaniaMacedoniaIsraelCIS/ Former nisia50229%29%19%14%Cameroon54611%32%22%26%Note: Global Average is weighted according to Weighting Scheme explained in the Methods Chapter3%9%10%Disclaimer: Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is nolonger a member of Gallup International Association. Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion pollingother than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further detailssee website: www.wingia.comPage 27 of 42
Global Poll onAMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012Table 8.4GLOBAL POLL ON AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012(Detailed Table)Question # 4: Some people say American (Presidential) elections influence the life in my country so muchthat I should have the right to vote for American President, do you agree or disagree with this view?Percent of RespondentsGlobal Average260141824272210REGIONAL CLASSIFICATIONSample SizeUnweighted NAll RegionsNorth AmericaLatin AmericaWestern EuropeEastern EuropeAfricaArab WorldWest AsiaSouth AsiaNorth AsiaG-7CanadaGermanyFranceItalyJapanBRIC
A world-wide poll conducted by WIN-Gallup International, a network of the world’s top most independent pollsters, asked exactly the same questions in 32 countries across the globe. Global Poll on AMERICAN ELECTIONS: 2012 Page 4 of 42 SYNOPSIS: 1. RIGHT TO VOTE IN AMERICAN ELECTIONS
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