MUSEUMS & SOCIETY 2034: TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FUTURES

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an initiative of theamerican association of museumsMUSEUMS & SOCIETY 2034: TRENDS AND POTENTIAL FUTURESVERSION 1.0DECEMBER 2008

“The goal of forecasting is not to predict the future but to tell youwhat you need to know to take meaningful action in the present.”— Paul Saffo, futuristOracle bones, Ouija boards, Tarot, crystal balls,motivator. Our hope is that this paper stimulatestea leaves, Magic 8-Balls—humanity has alwayslively discussion, and we look forward tobeen obsessed with predicting the future. Theincorporating your input both into the forecastingunknown scares the pants off us, as well itand into exploring how museums might respond.might! Knowledge is power, and knowing what isWorking together we can help create a healthy,coming around the corner would be immenselystable society in which every person has the leisurereassuring. Unfortunately, that isn’t going happen.and ability to enjoy what museums have to offer.And predicting the future is not, in fact, the goalof futurism. We can’t determine what will happen,but we can take a thoughtful look at what mighthappen, and the attendant consequences. Thisawareness of potential futures enables us tochoose which future we most want to live in, andfigure out how to bring it into being. The AmericanAssociation of Museums has established theCenter for the Future of Museums (CFM) to helpElizabeth MerrittFounding DirectorCenter for the Future of Museumswith that task.CFM commissioned a trends paper by ReachAdvisors to kick off this discussion. The condensedversion presented here introduces the majorthemes that will be explored in more depth in awhite paper to be released in 2009. We askedReach Advisors to be edgy and provocative, andthey have obliged. Sure, we hope that things willturn out fine without our active intervention,but do you really want to take that chance?Complacency breeds complacency, and thinkingabout potentially dark futures is a very effective2THE CENTER FOR THE FUTURE OF MUSEUMS

The Center for the Future of Museums (CFM)helps museums explore the cultural, politicaland economic challenges facing society anddevise strategies to shape a better tomorrow.CFM is a think-tank and research and design labfor fostering creativity and helping museumstranscend traditional boundaries to serve societyin new ways. CFM is an initiative of the AmericanAssociation of Museums.Copyright 2008 American Association of Museums.Consistent with the principles of the CreativeCommons ), we encourage the distribution ofthis material for non-commercial use, with properattribution to AAM. Edits or alterations to the originalwithout permission are prohibited.an initiative of the AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF MUSEUMS3

Museums are often viewed as conservators of theTo assess how each of these trends might shapepast, but some have always been in the businessthe future, we start by stepping back 25 years toof the future—even going so far as to enshrine it in1984, to identify some of the emerging structuraltheir mission statements.shifts that shape what we see today. With the fullbenefit of hindsight, it becomes clearer which ofBut what will the future look like? How much cantoday’s emerging trends are most likely to shapewe really anticipate about the world of 2034?the world of 2034.To address those questions, Reach Advisorspored over nearly a thousand articles, data sets,interviews and discussion forums to identify thetrends that are most likely to change U.S. societyand museums during the next 25 years. Our quarrywas the emerging structural changes that arehighly likely to reshape society and highly likely toaffect museums.Of course, there will be other trends that impactthe future of museums. But some of these trendsmight not be apparent yet; others may have a hugeimpact on some museums but not a broad crosssection of the field; others might have profoundimpacts on museums if they come to pass, butthe likelihood of that happening is low. This reportfocuses on demographic trends, changes in thegeopolitical and economic landscape, shifts intechnology and communications, and the rise ofnew cultural expectations.4THE CENTER FOR THE FUTURE OF MUSEUMS

I. THE CHANGING FACE OF AMERICAIn 1984, signs of dramatic demographic andsocioeconomic shifts in American society werealready apparent. For the first three-quarters of the20th century, minorities constituted 10–13% of theAmerican population. By the early 1980s, thanksto changes in immigration laws and enforcementpolicies, the minority population had climbed to20%. (Today, minorities represent 34% of thepopulation.) At about the same time, the youngestof the Baby Boomers reached adulthood andparticipation rates in postsecondary educationrose sharply. Each of these demographic trends willcontinue to shape American society by 2034.an aging populationAge profile of the American population , 2007 and 2035 (U.S. Census Bureau).As the Baby Boomers age, their sheer numberstell a story of future change in U.S. society. Today,post-retirement years. Surveys consistently show1 in 8 Americans are older than 65. In 2034, thethat Boomers are far more interested than theirratio will jump to 1 in 5. This is a generation thatparents in continuing some form of work afterhas reshaped lifestyles and the U.S. consumerretirement—and many will do so out of necessity.landscape at every stage of life. The upcomingstage will be no exception.What this means for museums: How will theBaby Boom engage with museums in retirement?What this means for society: A 50% jumpCan museums position themselves as employersin the post-retirement population will requireof choice for post-career bridge jobs? Perhapsgreater focus on healthcare and other servicesone of the most important things to consider isfor the aging and a subsequent strain on thehow museums can reinvent the role of the post-existing services. How will the government pay forretirement volunteer, simply because this is aunfunded entitle ments such as Social Security andgeneration that has rarely followed in lock-step withMedicare? Already, those unfunded commitmentsthe preceding generations. (Actually, it rebelledexceed the national debt, with more pressure toagainst them.) The Boomers constitute a largecome on everything else that depends on federaltalent pool working its way towards the goldenfunding. Another big unknown is how the Babyyears of volunteerism, at least among those whoBoomers will spend their time in the traditionalcan afford to do that.an initiative of the AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF MUSEUMS5

In 2034: Exhibit labels have bigger print andLooking ahead a quarter century, the U.S. Censusmuseums are easier to navigate with a walker orBureau projects that the U.S. population willwheelchair. Universal design is a given in even thereach the 400 million mark, up from 300 millionsmallest museums. Museums are at the forefronttoday. While the population will grow at a healthyof the “brain exercise” movement, helpingclip, the growth rate of the Caucasian populationto maintain the cognitive powers of an olderis projected to grow only 4% by 2034—not 4%population. Museums play an important role inannually, but 4% in total. Virtually zero growth.addressing the increased demand for all servicesfor the aging and are an increasingly desiredInstead, almost all of America’s population growthpartner for existing senior service organizations,will come from minority populations. By 2034,which are under pressure to serve a larger andminorities are likely to comprise just under half ofmore active senior population. And just as 2008the population. Four states in America have alreadywitnessed a presidential campaign that reinventedbecome majority minority, with five more statescivic involvement for a new generation of youngprojected to reach that level in the next decade.adults, museums will take the lead in reshapingcivic involvement for a new generation of agingAmong America’s children, the majority will becitizens.minority within 15 years. After analyzing surveyresponses from 30,000 core museum visitors,Reach Advisors has identified a group that wecall “Museum Advocates.” Museums are notjust places that they visit on occasion, but areespecially important places in their lives wherethey truly enjoy spending their leisure time. Andwhat distinguishes Museum Advocates from otherpeople? Nearly all have a distinct memory of aspecific, seminal museum experience, usuallybetween the ages of 5 and 9. The number ofCaucasian 7-year-olds is projected to decline by4% over the next 25 years. The number of blacksof the same age is projected to increase by 5%,Asians by 49%, mixed race children by 72% andHispanics by 73%.Changing composition of America (U.S. Census Bureau/Reach Advisors).What this means for society: The obvious answeris that America will look very different in 2034multi-ethnic america6than it does today. Communities will need new andbetter ways to promote integration and developOne of the most striking changes in theunderstanding across cultures. For many partscomposition of America since 1984 has been theof the country, this is more than a mere “culturaldramatic expansion of the minority population. Forsensitivity” issue—it is socially and economicallymost of the prior century, just 1 in 10 Americans wasvital to sustain healthy communities given thea minority, accelerating rapidly to 1 in 5 Americansdramatic shift in racial composition. What else doesin the early 1980s to 1 in 3 Americans today.this mean? Just as 2008 saw a major expansionTHE CENTER FOR THE FUTURE OF MUSEUMS

of African-Americans in political power, by 2034has remained relatively stable for men whilethe U.S. Congress and other elected bodies acrossarcing higher for women. As a result, women nowmuch of the country will be much more Hispanic.outnumber men on most college campuses by a60:40 ratio. The most stunning change is in theWhat this means for museums: The fundamentalattainment of professional and doctoral degrees.challenge is that while the population is alreadyWhen looking at the current holders of thoseone-third minority, heading towards majoritydegrees, men outnumber women by a 2:1 ratio.minority, today only 9% of the core visitors toBut the majority of those now graduating withmuseums are minorities and approximately 20%professional and doctoral degrees are women.of museum employees are minorities. If museumswant to remain relevant to their communities, theWhen it comes to income, the old gender gapmuseum audience will have to look dramaticallypersists. As of 2007, women who work full timedifferent as well, particularly in the western andearn only 79% of their male counterparts, but thissouthern U.S. and in most of the larger citiesgap is closing rapidly for well-educated women.across the country. If 5 to 9 is the critical ageFor example, the number of women earning overfor converting children into lifelong museum- 50,000 more than their spouses has doubledgoers and advocates, how can museums attractin the past ten years, and in most major U.S.minority children in this age range whose supportmetropolitan areas that draw an influx of college-they want in 2034? And are museums cultivatingeducated employees, women in their 20s now earnrelationships with minorities serving as community100% to 120% of what men of the same age earn.organizers, political staffers, on local school boards(now a targeted entry point by some of the moreWe see no signs of this trend letting up oversavvy Hispanic political organizations)? It’s a safethe next decade or two. Current national testbet that a number of those individuals will be votingscores show girls starting to pull away from boyson local, state and federal museum funding 25academically as early as the fourth grade, startingyears from now.down a long-term path towards higher educationalattainment.In 2034: More museums will be places of culturalexchange in their communities; they won’t haveWhat this means for society: One implication ofany other choice. Museums will be primary sitesthis ongoing shift is that the average age at whichfor civic dialogues about community interestswomen marry and have children will likely continueand the policies that affect communities. They willto increase, at least among the women who earnbe one of the most powerful agents in helping allcollege degrees. If that trend continues—carryingchildren understand the future and ensuring theythe next generation of mothers even further intoare prepared to take leadership roles in variouscareers where they are likely to outearn their malesectors.partners—then we also anticipate a dramatic shiftin gender role expectations. This may prove to bea new gender gapone of the biggest social challenges in Americaover the next 25 years as this generation of womenCirca 1984, 55% of girls who completed highmoves through college into the workforce andschool enrolled in college. Today, almost 70% whofamily life.complete high school enroll in college. Over thattime, the trajectory of educational attainmentan initiative of the AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF MUSEUMS7

What this means for museums: Given thatmuseums traditionally attract college-educatedaudiences, the impact of this change may be feltin a number of ways. When women hold the leadin educational attainment, will they constitutethe majority of visitors? In many cities across thecountry, the mothers visiting with young childrenwill be even more likely to be in their 30s and 40s,rather than their 20s—how will this affect museumprogramming? With more couples working fulltime and splitting childcare duties, who will havethe time and inclination to become museumvolunteers?In 2034: Museums have developed many newstrategies to attract both men and women asvisitors. With educational attainment becominga more visible tool of social mobility than ever,museums provide more opportunities than ever forgirls (and boys) from less-educated families to gainexposure to topics that drive academic interest andcarry them to college. As the percentage of twoincome parents continues to increase, museumsmeet the demand for a more robust network ofcommunity support for the young children ofmid-career parents. With more women servingas primary breadwinners, museums provideconvenient, welcoming venues where families haverich experiences during their increasingly scarcetime together. As important players in the formaland informal education system, museums workhard to meet the rising expectations that highlyeducated moms have for their children.8THE CENTER FOR THE FUTURE OF MUSEUMS

II. A SMALLER, FLATTER WORLDenergy price volatilityAs gasoline prices began stabilizing in the 1980s,the demand for fuel conservation eased. Salesof fuel-efficient vehicles in America were flat; thememory of the oil shocks faded, and Americansincreased their consumption of larger trucksand SUVs. In the current decade, oil prices havedestabilized again compared to such other staplesas bread.Major economic and geopolitical trends that shapethe world we live in today were already evident in1984. The United States was slowly recoveringfrom the OPEC embargo that forced us to confrontthe limitations of dependence on foreign oil. Ittook the better part of a decade but, as a result,automotive fuel efficiency started to increase withthe introduction of more fuel-efficient cars (e.g.,the Ford Escort became the best-selling car in thecountry)—at least until fuel prices stabilized again.Bread vs. Gas (in today’s dollars).In related shifts, the U.S. economy experienced aperiod of rapid globalization and American wealthWorldwide oil consumption is projected to increasebecame more concentrated in the hands of itsby 34% over the next 25 years. How will we plugrichest citizens and foreign investors.that gap? Domestic oil production is only a smallpart of the answer: The largest known reserveAs we look forward to 2034, these structural shiftsin America, the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge,provide clues for how the future is likely to play outaccording to best-case projections can produce ain the next 25 years. Let’s start with one trend thattotal 21 billion barrels of crude oil, the equivalent ofdominated most Americans’ thoughts during thejust one year of domestic consumption.summer of 2008.an initiative of the AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF MUSEUMS9

What will a gallon of gas cost in 2034? OurWhat this means for museums: Volatile energyprojection is based on conservative assumptionsprices will have a major effect on museum(i.e., a stabilized pricing environment ratheroperating budgets, heightening the tensionthan the peak prices from the summer of 2008).between conservation and historic preservationExtrapolating from a 25-year period of relative pricestandards and energy use. It could play a larger rolestability when gas prices rose at about the samein decisions about museum expansion. It will alsorate as the historical inflation rate, gasoline couldhave a major effect on consumer behavior:cost 4.91 per gallon in 2034. But if we extrapolatethe price increases from just the last five years,when gas price increases far outstripped the Two-thirds of car travel is currentlydiscretionary. As energy costs rise, travel costsinflation rate, then gas could cost 25.47 per gallonwill become an ever more important factor inin 2034. At either price, we can safely assume thatAmericans’ decisions about how to spend theirconsumer behaviors would change significantly.leisure time and dollars. This effect may bebuffered for local museums that are pluggedinto their communities. “Life list” museums thatPrice of gasoline in 25 years?Price increase trajectory:Using the past 25-year price trajectory(relatively stable pricing between 11/83–11/08)Avg. annualincrease:Price/gallonin 2034are distant but major tourist attractions willface challenges with increased gasoline prices,but not fatally as they continue to offer greatervalue to balance the higher costs of reaching2.8% 4.91them. Museums that require significantgasoline consumption and are not major touristdestinations will face enormous pressure.Using the past 5-year price trajectory (reflectsincreased volatility between 11/03–11/089.8% 25.47 Home prices and sales volume in the outersuburbs and exurbs has turned down muchmore sharply than in close-in suburbsand urban areas, and that trend is likely toWhat this means for society: If we reduce oilcontinue if gasoline prices continue to rise.consumption significantly or see productionOverexpansion of new housing supply in thoseincrease dramatically, gas price increases mayareas created dramatic oversupply that will takeparallel the rate of inflation, in which case, thethe next decade to absorb, and as those pricesimpact over the long term is not major. It is farcontinue to drop, they will become increasinglymore likely, however, that the volatility of the pastattractive to the growing minority population.five years will prevail, and energy costs will playMuseums in these outer suburb and exurbana major role in how the future plays out. This willlocations will often find that their almostdemand dramatic changes in all aspects of society,uniformly Caucasian community has turnedincluding the technology of energy production andsignificantly minority, due in part to confluencedistribution, transportation, distribution of theof the home construction bubble and thepopulation between suburban and urban areas,aftermath of fuel price increases.work-at-home policies and architectural design.10THE CENTER FOR THE FUTURE OF MUSEUMS

In 2034: Museums will educate the public onUnited States. In Japan, the prolonged recessionhow past societies coped and adapted to tectonicdrove fundamental restructuring of traditionalshifts in their resources. They will help societyemployment and career expectations and resultedlearn from history as we cope with a new erain a significant increase in the poverty rate. Aof more expensive energy, low

trends that are most likely to change U.S. society and museums during the next 25 years. Our quarry was the emerging structural changes that are highly likely to reshape society and highly likely to affect museums. Of course, there will be other trends that impact the future of museums. But some of these trends

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