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2017TRACKING PEACE TRANSITIONS THROUGHA SYSTEMS THINKING APPROACH

Quantifying Peace and its BenefitsThe Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit thinktank dedicated to shifting the world’s focus to peace as a positive, achievable, and tangiblemeasure of human well-being and progress.IEP achieves its goals by developing new conceptual frameworks to define peacefulness;providing metrics for measuring peace; and uncovering the relationships between business,peace and prosperity as well as promoting a better understanding of the cultural, economicand political factors that create peace.IEP is headquartered in Sydney, with offices in New York, The Hague, Mexico City andBrussels. It works with a wide range of partners internationally and collaborates withintergovernmental organisations on measuring and communicating the economic valueof peace.For more information visit www.economicsandpeace.orgPlease cite this report as: Institute for Economics & Peace. Positive Peace Report 2017:Tracking Peace Transitions Through a Systems Thinking Approach, Sydney, October 2017.Report number 54. Available from: visionofhumanity.org/reports (accessed Date Month Year).

CONTENTSWHY POSITIVE PEACE IS TRANSFORMATIONAL 3EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4Key Findings 12346What is Positive Peace? 7About Positive Peace and Systems Thinking 8POSITIVE PEACE INDEX, RESULTS & TRENDS 112017 Positive Peace Index Rankings 14Global Trends in Positive Peace 16Five Largest Improvements in Positive Peace 19Five Largest Deteriorations in Positive Peace 24Results by Income and Government Type 29Trends in Positive Peace in Europe – The Rise of Populism 30POSITIVE PEACE & SYSTEMS THINKING 35Intent of the Nation State 38Homeostasis and Self-Modification 44EMPIRICALLY DERIVED ADVANTAGESOF POSITIVE PEACE 47Positive Peace & Stability 51Stability in Response to Shocks 52Positive Peace & Adaptability 55Adaptability in Response to Civil Resistance Campaigns 56POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POSITIVE PEACE 59Peace Transitions: How Levels of Positive Peace Relate to Changes in Negative Peace 61How Positive Peace Evolves 61How Countries Transition in Peace 65Positive Peace Prior to the Onset of Conflict 66Uneven Progress in Positive Peace can have Negative Effects 67Recommendations for Making Systemic Change 69IEP’s Positive Peace Workshops 71APPENDICES 75ENDNOTES 100

2POSITIVE PEACE REPORT 20172

WHY POSITIVE PEACEIS TRANSFORMATIONALHumanity is now facing challenges unparalleled in itsPositive Peace is systemic and requires new thinking tohistory. These problems, which include climate change,understand it. Systems thinking originated in the study ofever decreasing biodiversity, and over-population, areorganisms, but can be extended into sociology and also intoglobal in nature; they call for global solutions and requireunderstanding countries and nations. When combined withcooperation on a scale unprecedented in human history. InPositive Peace, systems thinking provides new ways ofa globalised world, the sources of many of these challengesconceptualising and explaining societal change. In systemsare multidimensional, increasingly complex and spanthinking, the system is more than the sum of its parts andnational borders. For this reason, finding solutionscannot be understood merely by breaking it down into itsfundamentally requires new ways of thinking.constituent parts. This distinctly contrasts to the notion oflinear causality which is mainly used today in decisionWithout peace it will not be possible to achieve the levels ofmaking. Find a problem, find its cause and tackle the root oftrust, cooperation or inclusiveness necessary to solve thesethe problem. The issue with this approach is the potentialchallenges, let alone empower the international institutionsfor unintended consequences when the system is poorlyand organisations necessary to help address them.understood. The failure to solve some of society’sTherefore, peace is the essential prerequisite for the survivalfundamental problems is a testimony to this. Throughof humanity as we know it in the 21st century.understanding systems thinking new ways of understandingand operating nations can be developed.Positive Peace provides a framework to understand andthen address the multiple and complex challenges theSocieties, like organisms, have intent; different societiesworld faces. Positive Peace is transformational in that it is ahave different intents and will therefore react differently tocross-cutting factor for progress, making it easier forthe same stimulus. Countries also have encoded normsbusinesses to sell, entrepreneurs and scientists to innovate,which aim to maintain the system in a constant state. Theyindividuals to produce and governments to effectivelyregulate inputs, creating what is known as mutual feedbackregulate.loops. This can be observed in many societal processes,such as when a government stimulates the economy inIn addition to the absence of violence, Positive Peace is alsoresponses to a drop in GDP or applies more policingassociated with many other social characteristics that areresources when there is a rise in crime. Tipping points alsoconsidered desirable, including stronger economicoccur within systems because of lagged and non-linearoutcomes, higher resilience, better measures of well-being,relationships. In the past, societies have been understoodlevels of inclusiveness and environmental performance.through causality, but in the future embodying these moreTherefore, Positive Peace can be viewed as creating anholistic approaches will leap-frog our ability to manage anoptimal environment in which human potential can flourish.age of unprecedented challenges.Understanding what creates sustainable peace cannot bePositive Peace shines light in the direction that a systemfound in the study of violence alone. A parallel can be drawnneeds to evolve toward. Interventions should nudge thewith medical science. The study of pathology has led tosystem towards higher levels of Positive Peace. Importantly,numerous breakthroughs in our understanding of how toviewing nations as systems provides a framework fortreat and cure disease. However, it was only when medicalintersecting and understanding the relationship of humanityscience turned its focus to the study of healthy humanto the broader systems upon which we depend, such as thebeings that we understood what we needed to do to staybiosphere. Systems are self-regulating and self-modifying,healthy: the correct physical exercise, a good mentalwith each system simultaneously both encapsulating anddisposition and a balanced diet are some examples. Thisforming a part of other systems. Understanding thesecould only be learned by studying what was working. In theinterdependencies is essential to meet the globalsame way, the study of conflict is different to the study ofchallenges of our age.peace, producing very different outcomes.POSITIVE PEACE REPORT 20173

EXECUTIVESUMMARYThe 2017 Positive Peace Report outlines a new approach to societal developmentthrough the application of Positive Peace and systems thinking. Positive Peace isdefined as the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peacefulsocieties. The same factors that create peace also lead to many other positiveoutcomes that societies aspire to, such as thriving economies, better inclusion, highlevels of resilience and societies that are more capable of adapting to change.Therefore, Positive Peace can be described as creating an optimum environment inwhich human potential can flourish.Through placing the emphasis on the positive, Positive Peaceyears. An interactive tool for National Intent can be found atreframes our conceptualisation towards what works. Thewww.nationalintent.visionofhumanity.org.factors which create resilience are indeed very different tothose needed to stop conflict.Positive Peace is also strongly linked to resilience. Countrieswith high Positive Peace are more likely to maintain theirWithout a better understanding of how societies operate, itstability and adapt and recover from both internal andwill not be possible to solve humanity’s major globalexternal shocks. Low Positive Peace systems are more likely tochallenges. Positive Peace combined with systems thinkinggenerate internal shocks, with 84 per cent of major politicalprovides a unique framework from which to better manageshocks occurring in these countries. Similarly, there are 13human affairs and to relate to the broader eco-systems upontimes more lives lost from natural disasters in nations with lowwhich we depend. Positive Peace in many ways is a facilitator,Positive Peace as opposed to those with high Positive Peace,allowing societies more avenues for adaptation.a disproportionally high number when compared to thedistribution of incidents.1This report is a continuation of the prior work of IEP, andincludes an updated Positive Peace Index (PPI). It provides aCountries with stronger Positive Peace have restorativebasis for the application of systems thinking to bettercapacities and as such are more resilient in the face of civilunderstand how nations operate. A section of the reportresistance. Movements tend to be smaller, exist for a shorterdescribes the fundamental concepts of national intent,period, have more moderate aims, be more likely to achieveencoded norms, national homeostasis, self-modification, andtheir goals and are far less violent. The differences betweenmutual feedback loops - associated with systems thinking. Incountries can be striking: 91 per cent of all civil resistancedoing so IEP provides a new interdependent framework andcampaigns that were primarily violent have been waged inholistic approach to understanding peace and development.countries with weaker Positive Peace.2A major contribution of this report is the development of theIn 2016, the economic impact of containing or dealing withconcept of National Intent, a research area with direct policythe consequences of violence was 12.6 per cent of the worldimplications. Identifying groups of countries with similarGDP or approximately 14 trillion, highlighting thatIntent it is possible to determine where the strongest alliancesimprovements in resilience and peace have substantialare likely to form. Soft power is also more likely to beeconomic advantages to the global economy.3successful in countries with similar intent. Policies that have4worked in one country are more likely to have comparablePositive Peace has been improving since 2005, with 109 ofoutcomes in similar countries. This work is still in its earlythe 163 countries ranked in the PPI, or 67 per cent, havingstages of development and will evolve rapidly in comingimproved over this period. Six of the eight Pillars of PositivePOSITIVE PEACE REPORT 2017 Executive Summary4

Peace have also improved. The two Pillars that recorded aIEP has now conducted a number of workshops, including fordeterioration are Acceptance of the Rights of Others and LowLibya, Zimbabwe, Uganda and Mexico with the aim of helpingLevels of Corruption. To further help in understanding howto build Positive Peace in these countries. The report containsPositive Peace operates the rise of European populism isa brief summary of these workshops.explained through the changes in Positive Peace, where 19out of 36 countries in Europe recorded deteriorations in theirEach Pillar of Positive Peace represents a complex set ofPositive Peace levels between 2005 and 2016. The US alsosocial dynamics. Overhauling all aspects of corruption orrecorded a sharp deterioration in Positive Peace.governance, for example, may prove to be problematic and inPositive Peace is systemic and interdependent. As a simpletherefore the unique factors which constitute the make-up ofexample, High Levels of Human Capital can act as a driver ofeconomic growth, while a Strong Business Environment canbe a driver of improved education and both are influenced byWell-Functioning Government. Analysis of corruptiondemonstrates that 80 per cent of countries scoring poorly infact break the system. Countries, like systems, evolve,a country need to be understood and then practical stepstaken to continually nudge the system towards its ideal state,Positive Peace. Once started, improvements in the Pillarsmake more improvements more likely, thereby starting avirtuous reinforcing cycle.Low Levels of Corruption also score poorly in High Levels ofHuman Capital, again highlighting the interconnected natureof the Pillars.The criticality of peace to global development is underscoredby the inclusion of Goal 16, the peace, justice and governancegoal, in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However,there is little prevailing guidance about the type ofenvironments that are conducive to the achievement of theSDGs. Positive Peace describes this and is statistically linkedto better outcomes for the Millennium Development Goals.When comparing the factors of Positive Peace to all the SDGs,it is clear that two Pillars of Positive Peace are underrepresented in the SDG framework: Low Levels of Corruptionand Free Flow of Information. These two areas should not beforgotten as they are important to achieving higher levels ofpeace and better developmental outcomes.The report offers recommendations for enhancing PositivePeace. A systems view of Positive Peace appropriatelyrecognizes complexity, but that complexity itself can makepolicy interventions seem difficult. IEP has identified twoapproaches for catalysing systemic change – one whichemphasizes depth and one which emphasizes breadth. Thefirst approach is to focus on society’s weakest Pillar. Thesecond approach involves stimulating the entire system. Thisapproach looks at each of the eight Pillars with actions foreach that are substantial, can be achieved in the currentpolitical environment, and will have impact within areasonable amount of time.POSITIVE PEACE REPORT 2017 Executive Summary5

KEY FINDINGSPOSITIVE PEACE FUNDAMENTALS§§Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes, institutionsand structures that create and sustain peacefulsocieties.§§These same factors also lead to many other positiveoutcomes which society feels are important.§§§§§§SYSTEMS THINKINGTherefore Positive Peace is described as creating theoptimum environment for human potential to flourish.To understand transitions from one level of peace toanother requires an understanding of how the Pillars ofPeace work together in the system.§§Countries where the Positive Peace is lower than theactual peace are twice as likely to have substantial fallsin peace.Development interventions are less likely to succeedunless the systemic nature of the nation is taken intoconsideration.§§Countries which are improving in Positive Peacecompared to countries that are deteriorating in PositivePeace had 2 per cent per annum higher growth rate inper capita income from 2005 to 2016.Well-Functioning Government, Low Levels of Corruption,Acceptance of the Rights of Others and Good Relationswith Neighbours are more important in countriessuffering from high levels of violence.§§Free Flow of Information and Sound BusinessEnvironment become more important when a country isapproaching the global average level of peacefulness,also described as the Mid-Peace level.§§Countries that transitioned to lower levels of peacetended to have higher levels of availability of smallarms, higher numbers of police and higher groupgrievances than their peers.§§Countries that transitioned to higher levels of peacehad lower levels of availability of small arms, bettereconomic environments and higher levels of PositivePeace.§§Security forces can be a key force for both greaterpeace and greater violence; the broader performanceon Positive Peace is the key factor that determines theoutcome.§§In certain circumstances, improving Sound BusinessEnvironment, High Levels of Human Capital andEquitable Distribution of Resources withoutimprovements in corruption or governance can createthe dynamics that cause peace to deteriorate.§§National Intent is an important macro characteristic thatis needed to fully understand transitions.§§IEP has developed an intent framework using fourdimensions: political system, economic system, socialsystem and international relations.§§Countries with similar intent are more likely to formmeaningful alliances.§§Highly developed nations are very similar to otherhighly developed nations.§§Less developed countries tend to be more unique inthat they are similar to a smaller number of countries.High Positive Peace countries are more likely tomaintain stability, adapt, and recover from shocks asthey overcome their challenges.§§Countries that are high in Positive Peace are more likelyto maintain high levels of peace.§§Twice as many high Positive Peace countries improvedin peace between 2008 and 2016 when compared tocountries with low Positive Peace.§§The level of Positive Peace is a country’s best long-termindicator of how peaceful a country is likely to be.§§The most peaceful countries in the world performstrongly on all eight Pillars of Positive Peace.TRENDS6The deterioration of Positive Peace in several Europeancountries occurred while populist political partiesgained significant electoral traction.§§§§§§Over the past decade Positive Peace has improved by1.86 per cent globally.§§However, Positive Peace has plateaued since 2013 dueto deteriorations in Sound Business Environment, FreeFlow of Information, High Levels of Human Capital andAcceptance of the Rights of Others, offsetting gains inother Pillars.§§The three regions of Russia and Eurasia, Asia-Pacific andSouth Asia had the largest improvements at 4.7 per cent3.3 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.§§MENA is notably lagging behind the rest of the world inPositive Peace improvements with large deteriorationsin Acceptance of the Rights of Others, Low Levels ofCorruption and Free Flow of Information.§§§§Between 2005 and 2016, 19 out of 36 Europeancountries experienced deteriorations in their overall PPIscores.POSITIVE PEACE REPORT 2017 Executive Summary6

WHAT IS POSITIVE PEACE?NEGATIVE PEACE. is the absence of violenceor fear of violenceTHE PILLARS OF POSITIVE PEACEThe Pillars of Positive Peace describe the attitudes,institutions and structures that underpin E PEACE. is the presence of the attitudes,institutions and structures thatcreate and sustain peacefulsocieties.§§Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes, institutionsand structures that create and sustain peacefulEquitableDistributionof ResourcesSound BusinessEnvironmentLow Levelsof CorruptionPEACEAcceptanceof the Rightsof OthersFree Flowof InformationGood Relationswith NeighboursHigh Levels ofHuman Capitalsocieties. These same factors also lead to many otherpositive outcomes which society feels are important.Therefore Positive Peace creates the optimumenvironment for human potential to flourish.§§Positive Peace has been empirically derived by IEP viathe statistical analysis of thousands of cross-countrymeasures of economic and social progress todetermine what factors have a statistically significantassociation with Negative Peace.§§Positive Peace creates the optimumenvironment for human potential toflourish.Positive Peace is measured by the Positive Peace Index(PPI) which consists of eight domains, each containingthree indicators, totalling 24. This provides a baselinemeasure of the effectiveness of a country’s capabilitiesto build and maintain peace. It also provides a measurefor policymakers, researchers and corporations to usefor effective monitoring and evaluation.§§Positive Peace can be used as the basis for empiricallymeasuring a country’s resilience, or ability to absorb andrecover from shocks. It can also be used to measurefragility and to help predict the likelihood of conflict,violence and instability.§§There is a close relationship between

resources when there is a rise in crime. Tipping points also . through the application of Positive Peace and systems thinking. Positive Peace is defined as the attitudes, institutions and .

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