REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION February 2021 DRAFT .

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Bruce Damonte courtesy MidPen Housing. All rights reserved.February 2021REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATIONDRAFT METHODOLOGY:San Francisco Bay Area, 2023-2031

CONTENTSExecutive Board Members and Staff1Housing Methodology CommitteeMembers2Introduction4About the RegionalHousing Needs AllocationWho is Responsible for RHNA?The Regional Housing Needs DeterminationSchedule and Process for Developing theRegional Housing Needs AllocationTable 1: ABAG Regional Housing NeedsDetermination from HCD5The Draft RHNA MethodologyHousing Methodology CommitteeRHNA Statutory Objectives and FactorsDraft RHNA Methodology PerformanceEvaluationDraft RHNA MethodologyFigure 1 Draft Methodology OverviewII56789910121213Table 2: Factors and Weights for DraftRHNA MethodologyTable 3: Allocation Factor Data andAssumptionsTable 4: Factor Scores by JurisdictionTable 5: RHNA Allocation by Jurisdiction,with Factor ComponentsFigure 2: Illustrative Allocations fromDraft Methodology44RHNA StatutoryObjectives and FactorsRHNA ObjectivesRHNA Methodology Factors464650SubregionsTable 6: Final Subregion Shares6060Next Steps61Endnotes62Appendices63ABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-203114152032

ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERMENTS EXECUTIVE BOARDJesse Arreguin, PresidentMayor, City of BerkeleyCarroll FifeCouncilmember, City of OaklandNathan MileySupervisor, County of AlamedaBelia Ramos, Vice PresidentSupervisor, County of NapaNeysa FligorMayor, City of Los AltosKaren MitchoffSupervisor, County of Contra CostaDavid Rabbitt,Supervisor, County of Sonoma —Immediate Past PresidentLeon GarciaMayor, City of American CanyonStephanie Moulton-PetersSupervisor, County of MarinLiz GibbonsMayor, City of CampbellRaul PeralezCouncilmember, City of San JoseGiselle HaleVice Mayor, Redwood CityCarlos RomeroMayor, East Palo AltoBarbara HallidayMayor, City of HaywardJames SperingSupervisor, County of SolanoRich HillisPlanning Director, City and Countyof San FranciscoLoren TaylorCouncilmember, City of OaklandCandace AndersenSupervisor, County of Contra CostaNikki Fortunato BasCouncilmember, City of OaklandLondon BreedMayor, City and County ofSan FranciscoTom ButtMayor, City of RichmondDavid CanepaSupervisor, County of San MateoKeith CarsonSupervisor, County of AlamedaCindy ChavezSupervisor, County of Santa ClaraPat EklundMayor, City of NovatoMaya EsparzaCouncilmember, City of San JoseABAG-MTC STAFF:Matt MaloneySection Director,Regional PlanningDave VautinAssistant Director, Major PlansGillian AdamsPrincipal PlannerEli KaplanRegional HousingPolicy AnalystVacantCities in Sonoma CountyAksel OlsenSenior PlannerOtto LeeSupervisor, County of Santa ClaraVacantCity and County of San Francisco(Mayor)Leah ZippertSenior Public Information OfficerMatthew MahanCouncilmember, City of San JoseVacantCounty of San MateoRafael MandelmanSupervisor, City and County of SanFranciscoLori WilsonMayor, City of Suisun CityDave HudsonMayor, City of San RamonGordon MarSupervisor, City and County of SanFranciscoJayne BatteyBoard Member, San Francisco BayRegional Water Quality ControlBoard — Advisory MemberJulie TeglovicPublic Information AnalystMichele StoneGraphic Design

HOUSING METHODOLOGY COMMITTEELOCAL JURISDICTIONELECTED OFFICIALS*Jesse Arreguín, ChairMayor, City of Berkeley, AlamedaCountyJulie PierceMayor, City of Clayton, Contra CostaCountyPat EklundCouncilmember, City of Novato,Marin CountyDiane DillonSupervisor, County of NapaRick BonillaCouncilmember, City of San Mateo,San Mateo CountyNeysa FligorCouncilmember, City of Los Altos,Santa Clara CountyMonica BrownSupervisor, Solano CountyJohn VasquezSupervisor, Solano County(Alternate)Susan AdamsCouncilmember, City of RohnertPark, Sonoma CountyLOCAL JURISDICTIONSTAFFAlameda CountyEllen ClarkPlanning Manager,City of PleasantonDarin RanellettiPolicy Director for HousingSecurity, City of OaklandContra Costa CountyForrest EbbsCommunity Development Director,City of AntiochMindy GentryPlanning Manager, City of ConcordAndrea OuseCommunity Development Director,City of Concord (Alternate)Marin CountyElise SemonianPlanning Director, Town ofSan AnselmoEthan GuyPrincipal Analyst, City of San Rafael(Alternate)Napa CountyVin SmithCommunity Development Director,City of Napa* The City and County of San Francisco did not appoint an electedofficial representative2San Francisco CountyPaolo IkezoeSenior Planner, City and County ofSan Francisco‡James Pappas‡Senior Planner, City and County ofSan FranciscoSan Mateo CountyJosh Abrams Baird Driskell CommunityPlanning, Staff to 21 ElementsNell SelanderDeputy Director, Economic &Community Development, City ofSouth San Francisco Santa Clara CountyMichael BrilliotDeputy Director for CitywidePlanning, City of San JoseAarti ShrivastavaAssistant City Manager/CommunityDevelopment Director, City ofMountain ViewJennifer CarmanDevelopment Services Director, Cityof Morgan Hill (Alternate)Andrew CrabtreeCommunity Development Director,City of Santa Clara (Alternate)Solano CountyMatt WalshPrincipal Planner, Solano CountyDavid FeinsteinPrincipal Planner, City of Fairfield(Alternate)Sonoma CountyJane RileyComprehensive Planning Manager,Sonoma CountyMilan NevajdaDeputy Planning Director, SonomaCounty (Alternate)Noah HoushCommunity Development Director,City of Cotati (Alternate)REGIONALSTAKEHOLDERSSocial EquityVictoria FierceCalifornia Renter Legal Advocacyand Education Fund (CaRLA)Jeffrey LevinEast Bay Housing Organizations(EBHO)Fernando MartiCouncil of Community HousingOrganizations Both served on HMC, Selander replaced Abrams‡ Both served on HMC, Pappas replaced IkezoeABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031

Russell HancockJoint Venture Silicon ValleyMatt ReganBay Area CouncilXiomara CisnerosBay Area Council (Alternate)Non-Profit HousingWelton JordanEAH HousingRodney K. Nickens, Jr.Non-Profit Housing Association ofNorthern California (NPH)For-Profit HousingPaul CamposBuilding Industry Association of theBay Area (BIA)Jonathan FearnGreystar DevelopmentOpen Space/AgriculturePhilanthropyRupinder (Ruby) BolariaShifrinChan Zuckerberg InitativePublic/AlternativeTransportationBob PlantholdGovernment and CommunityAdvocates Strategies, Inc.RPC HousingSubcommitteeCarlos RomeroUrban EcologyLaborScott LittlehaleNorthern California CarpentersRegional CouncilState PartnerTawny MacedoCalifornia Department of Housing &Community Development (HCD)Amanda Brown-StevensGreenbelt AllianceTom BrinkhuisHCD (Alternate)Public EducationMegan KirkebyHCD (Alternate)Brandon KlineSan Francisco State UniversityPublic HealthAnita AddisonLa Clinica de la Raza Martin Klimek. All Rights Reserved.Business CommunityHMC ROSTER RHNA3

INTRODUCTIONSince 1969, the State of California has requiredeach local government to plan for its shareof the state’s housing needs for people ofall income levels. Through the RegionalHousing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process,every local jurisdiction is assigned a numberof housing unitsrepresenting itsshare of the state’shousing needs foran eight-year period.State Housing ElementLaw requires theAssociation of Bay AreaGovernments (ABAG) todevelop a methodology fordistributing the Bay Area’sportion of the state housingneeds to local governmentswithin the nine-county region,including reporting on thedraft methodology. This reportcontains the data and assumptions involved indeveloping the draft methodology, and it alsoexplains how the draft methodology takes intoaccount key statutory factors and meets fivekey objectives as outlined in Housing ElementLaw.1SONOMANAPASOLANOMARINCONTRA COSTASANFRANCISCOALAMEDASANMATEOSANTA CLARA4Moving from the Proposed RHNA Methodology to theDraft RHNA MethodologyThe ABAG Executive Board approved the release ofthe proposed RHNA methodology for public commenton October 15, 2020. As required by law, ABAGheld a public comment period from October 25 toNovember 27 and conducted a public hearing at theNovember 12 meeting of the ABAG RegionalPlanning Committee. These comments providedperspectives from over 200 local governmentstaff and elected officials, advocacy organizations,and members of the public. A summary of thepublic comments received and staff responses isavailable on the ABAG website.The components of the draft RHNA methodologyare primarily the same as the proposed RHNAmethodology. However, the draft RHNAmethodology incorporates future year 2050households data from the Plan Bay Area 2050Final Blueprint. Integrating the updated dataabout future year 2050 households from theFinal Blueprint into the draft RHNA methodologyresults in changes to the illustrative allocationsto local jurisdictions, described in more detail in thisreport. Additionally, in response to feedback receivedduring the public comment period, the ABAG RegionalPlanning Committee and Executive Board voted toincorporate the “equity adjustment” (described inmore detail on page 17) as part of the Draft RHNAMethodology approved in January 2021.ABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031

ABOUT THE REGIONALHOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATIONOnce it receives its allocation, each local governmentmust update the Housing Element of its General Plan andits zoning to show how it plans to accommodate its RHNAunits and meet the housing needs in its community. It is inthe community’s Housing Element that local governmentsmake decisions about where future housing units couldbe located and the policies and strategies for addressingspecific housing needs within a given jurisdiction, such asaddressing homelessness, meeting the needs of specificpopulations, affirmatively furthering fair housing, orminimizing displacement.3Who is Responsible for RHNA?Responsibility for completing RHNA is shared amongstate, regional and local governments: The role of the State is to identify the total number ofhomes for which each region in California must planin order to meet the housing needs of people acrossthe full spectrum of income levels, from housing for Martin Klimek. All Rights Reserved.The RHNA process identifies the total number ofhousing units, separated into four affordabilitylevels, that every local government in the BayArea must plan to accommodate for the periodfrom 2023 to 2031.2 The primary role of theRHNA methodology is to encourage a pattern ofhousing growth for the Bay Area that meets theneeds of all residents.ABOUT THE REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION RHNA5

very low-income households all the way to market-ratehousing. This is developed by the California Departmentof Housing and Community Development (HCD) and isknown as the Regional Housing Needs Determination(RHND). The role of the region is to allocate a share of the RHNDto each local government in the region. As the Councilof Governments (COG) for the nine-county Bay Area,ABAG is required to develop the methodology forsharing the RHND among all cities, towns and countiesin the region. ABAG developed the draft methodologyin conjunction with a committee of elected officials, cityand county staff, and stakeholders called the HousingMethodology Committee (HMC).6 Tim Griffith courtesy SAHA. All Rights Reserved. The role of local governments is to participate in thedevelopment of the allocation methodology and toupdate their Housing Elements to show how they willaccommodate their share of the RHND, following theadoption of the final RHNA allocations. The HousingElement must include an inventory of sites that havebeen zoned for sufficient capacity to accommodate thejurisdiction’s RHNA allocation for each income category.The Regional Housing Needs Determination4In consultation with ABAG, HCD determined that theBay Area must plan for 441,176 new housing units from2023 to 2031. This determination is based on populationprojections produced by the California Department ofFinance (see Appendix 1 for the letter ABAG receivedfrom HCD). Details of the RHND by income categoryABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031

SCHEDULE AND PROCESS FOR DEVELOPING RHNAIn October 2019, ABAG convened the HousingMethodology Committee (HMC), comprised of localelected officials, jurisdiction staff, and other stakeholdersfrom throughout the region, to advise ABAG ondeveloping the RHNA methodology. Between October2019 and September 2020, the committee met 12 times todeliberate about how best to allocate the region’s housingneed to jurisdictions.2023 – 2031 RHNA Development Timeline2023–2031 RHNA DEVELOPMENT TIMELINEMajor Milestones in the RHNA Process On June 9, 2020, HCD provided ABAG with itsdetermination of total regional housing needs. HCDindicated that Bay Area jurisdictions must plan for441,176 units between 2023–2031 On October 15, 2020, the ABAG Executive Boardapproved the proposed methodology and draftsubregion shares. October 25 – November 27, 2020: Public commentperiod on proposed methodology January 2021: final subregion shares and draftmethodology approved; draft methodology to HCDfor review Spring 2021: Release of final methodology and draftallocation Summer/Fall 2021: RHNA appeals and hearing December 2021: final RHNA allocation and ExecutiveBoard approval10/2019 to 9/2020ABAG Housing MethodologyCommittee (HMC) Monthly ent Begins20202/2020Subregions Form9/2020Final HMC Meeting10/2020 to 11/2020Public Comment Methodology1/2021Final Subregion Shares1/2021Draft RHNA Methodology toHCD for Review12/2021Final RHNA Allocation andABAG Executive Board V.DEC.6/2020HCD Regional HousingNeed Determination10/2020Proposed RHNA Methodology Draft Subregion NOV.DEC.2022 2023Spring 2021Final RHNA Methodology Draft AllocationSummer/Fall 2021RHNA AppealsJanuary 2023Housing Element Due DateABOUT THE REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION RHNA7

are shown in Table 1 . This determination is based onpopulation projections produced by the CaliforniaDepartment of Finance and the application of specificadjustments to determine the total amount of housingneeds for the region. The adjustments are a result ofrecent legislation that sought to incorporate an estimate ofexisting housing need by requiring HCD to apply factorsrelated to a target vacancy rate, the rate of overcrowding,and the share of cost-burdened households.5 The newlaws governing the methodology for how HCD calculatesthe RHND resulted in a significantly higher number ofhousing units for which the Bay Area must plan comparedto previous RHNA cycles.Table 1: ABAG Regional Housing Needs DeterminationINCOME CATEGORYPERCENTVery boveModerate42.6%188,130100%441,176* Extremely Low15.5%TOTAL8HOUSING UNIT NEEDIncluded in “Very Low”Income CategoryABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031 2012 Clark Mishler courtesy BRIDGE Housing. All Rights Reserved.from HCD

THE DRAFT RHNA METHODOLOGYHousing Methodology CommitteeAs it has for the past several RHNA cycles, ABAGconvened a Housing Methodology Committee (HMC) toguide development of the methodology used to allocatea share of the region’s total housing need to every localgovernment in the Bay Area. ABAG’s HMC approachstands out compared to most other large Councils ofGovernments, going beyond the legal requirements tofacilitate dialogue and information-sharing among localgovernment representatives and stakeholders fromacross the Bay Area with crucial expertise to address theregion’s housing challenges. As ABAG strives to advanceequity and affirmatively further fair housing, the agencysought to ensure a breadth of voices in the methodologyprocess. The HMC held 12 meetings starting in October2019 to formulate a recommended RHNA methodology.Information about the topics discussed at the meetings isavailable on the ABAG website. Karl Nielsen. All Rights Reserved.As noted previously, the purpose of the RHNAmethodology is to divide the RHND amongBay Area jurisdictions. The methodology is aformula that calculates the number of housingunits assigned to each city and county, andthe formula also distributes each jurisdiction’shousing unit allocation among four affordabilitylevels.THE RHNA METHODOLOGY RHNA9

RHNA Statutory Objectives and Factors Bernard Andre. All Rights Reserved.Development of the RHNA methodology was guidedby the statutory requirements that the RHNA meetfive objectives6 and be consistent with the forecasteddevelopment pattern from Plan Bay Area 2050.7 The fivestatutory objectives of RHNA can be summarized as:1. Increase housing supply and mix of housing types,tenure and affordability in all cities and counties in anequitable manner2. Promote infill development and socioeconomic equity,protect environmental and agricultural resources,encourage efficient development patterns and achievegreenhouse gas emissions reduction targets3. Promote improved intraregional jobs-housingrelationship, including balance between low-wage jobsand affordable housing4. Balance disproportionate household incomedistributions (more high-income RHNA to lower-incomeareas and vice-versa)5. Affirmatively further fair housingSince the last RHNA cycle (2015 to 2023), the State hasmade several changes to the laws that govern the RHNAprocess, including modifications to the objectives that theRHNA allocation must meet. Changes include highlightingthe importance of specifically addressing the balancebetween low-wage jobs and homes affordable to lowwage workers (known as jobs-housing fit) when looking10at improving the jobs-housing relationship as part ofObjective 3 as well as considering achievement of theregion’s greenhouse gas emissions reduction target whenpromoting infill development and socioeconomic equity aspart of Objective 2. However, the most notable addition isObjective 5, the new requirement to “affirmatively furtherfair housing,” which focuses on overcoming patternsof segregation and fostering inclusive communities.8This new requirement applies to RHNA as well as localgovernment Housing Element updates. While RHNA hasalways focused on increasing access to housing for all, thenew statutory requirements make this commitment to fairhousing a more explicit aspect of the RHNA process andHousing Element updates.In addition to meeting the objectives outlined above,State Housing Element Law requires ABAG to considera specific set of factors in the development of the RHNAmethodology. The law also requires ABAG to survey itsABAG REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION DRAFT METHODOLOGY: SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, 2023-2031

member jurisdictions to gather information on the factorsthat must be considered for inclusion in the methodology.9As part of the new requirement related to affirmativelyfurthering fair housing, ABAG included questions in thesurvey about local governments’ issues, strategies andactions related to achieving fair housing goals.As a complement to these survey questions, ABAG staffalso reviewed the fair housing reports that jurisdictionssubmit to the federal government if they receive blockgrant funding from the U.S. Department of Housing andUrban Development. ABAG opened an online surveyto all jurisdictions in the region from January-February2020 and received 72 responses, a response rate of 66percent.10 ABAG staff reviewed the survey responses aswell as other relevant data to inform the development of amethodology that achieves the objectives outlined in statestatute.Housing Element Law also identifies several criteria thatcannot be used as the basis for a determination of ajurisdiction’s share of the regional housing need. Theseinclude:1. Any ordinance, policy, voter-approved measure orstandard of a city or county that directly or indirectlylimits the number of residential building permits issuedby a city or county.MIchele Stone, MTC2. Prior underproduction of housing in a city or countyfrom

London Breed Mayor, City and County of San Francisco Tom Butt Mayor, City of Richmond David Canepa Supervisor, County of San Mateo Keith Carson . This report contains the data and assumptions involved in developing the draft methodology, and it also explains how the draft methodology takes into

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