FOLLOW-UP SURVEY ON ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE .

REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINESNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (NEDA)FOLLOW-UP SURVEY ONROADMAP FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTUREDEVELOPMENTFOR GREATER CAPITAL REGION (GCR)FINAL REPORTSUMMARYAugust 2019JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA)ALMEC CorporationPPJR19-003

REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINESNATIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (NEDA)FOLLOW-UP SURVEY ONROADMAP FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTUREDEVELOPMENTFOR GREATER CAPITAL REGION (GCR)FINAL REPORTSUMMARYAugust 2019JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA)ALMEC Corporation

TABLE OF CONTENTS1 INTRODUCTION . 12 ASPIRATIONS . 13 CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS . 24 DEVELOPMENT DIRECTIONS . 65 ROADS . 116 PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION . 177 GATEWAY PORTS AND LOGISTICS . 228 TRANSIT ORIENTED DEVELOPMENTS . 249 IMPLEMENTATION . 2610 EPILOGUE . 33i

LIST OF TABLESTable 5.1Table 5.2Table 5.3Table 5.4Table 6.1Table 6.2Table 9.1Table 9.2Roadmap to Intelligent Transport System . 12Impact on EDSA of Two Expressway Projects . 14Roadmap for Expressway . 15Roadmap for Urban Road . 16Roadmap for Railways . 19Roadmap for Road-based Public Transport. 21Indicative Transport Investment Program . 27Key Performance Indicators . 32LIST OF FIGURESFigure 2.1Figure 3.1Figure 3.2Figure 3.3Figure 3.4Figure 3.5Figure 3.6Figure 3.7Figure 4.1Figure 4.2Figure 4.3Figure 4.4Figure 5.1Figure 5.2Figure 5.3Figure 5.4Figure 6.1Figure 6.2Figure 6.3Figure 7.1Figure 7.2Figure 8.1Figure 8.2Figure 8.3Figure 9.1Figure 9.2Study Approach . 2Profile of the Study Area . 2Population Distribution in 2015 . 3Urban Expansion. 3Traffic Volume on the Existing Road Network—Based on Traffic Model . 4Three Geospatial Risks for Greater Capital Region . 5Growing Urban Areas. 5No. of Registred Vehicles in Metro Manila, Region 3 and Region 4 . 6Land Use and Transport Integration . 7Proposed Spatial Structure . 8Land Use Reform of Metro Manila . 8Transform Urban Structure by NSCR and MMSP . 9Bottlenecks in Metro Manila . 11Expressway Network in Mega Manila . 13Examples of (instant) Modular Flyovers-Bridges . 15Areas Lacking in Secondary Roads . 16Ridership on the 4 Railway Lines . 17Proposed Railway Network for Mega Manila . 18Components of the PUVM . 20Options for International Airports in Mega Manila . 23Gateway Ports in Mega Manila and ICDs . 24TOD around Tama-Plaza Station, Yokohama . 25Bocaue Station North CR . 26Schematics for TOD around North Avenue Station of MMS. 26Illustrative Chart of Network Performance in 2035 . 32Illustrative: Areas w/in One Hour Commute Time . 33ii

LIST OF BOXESBox 6.1 Experiences of Rail Development in Tokyo Metropolitan Area . 19Box 6.2 Opportunities for EV and ICT . 21Box 8.1 Township Development in Japan . 26iii

lternative currentannual growth rateautomated guideway transitAssociation of Southeast Asian NationsAsian utility vehiclebusiness as usualBonifacio Global CityBulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavitebuss rapid transitCavite–Laguna ExpresswayManila–Cavite ExpresswayComprehensive Development PlanClark Green CityCentral Luzon Link Expresswaycomprehensive land use plancarbon monoxidedetailed designDepartment of Transportation and CommunicationDepartment of TransportationDepartment of Public Works and HighwaysEpifanio de los Santos Avenuefeasibility studyGreater Capital Regiongreenhouse gasgeographic information systemGreater Metro Manila Areagross regional domestic productglobal positioning systemhouseholdhigh-occupancy vehicleheavy rail transitHousing and Urban Development Coordinating Councilinformation and communication technologyinformal settler familyintelligent transportation systemskilometer per hourlocal government unitlight detection and ranginglight rail transitLand Transportation Franchising and Regulatory BoardJapan International Cooperation AgencyMuntinlupa–Cavite ExpresswayMines and Geosciences BureauManila International Container TerminalMetropolitan Manila Development AuthorityMega Manila Subway ProjectManila North Tollways CorporationMetro Pacific Investments Corporationmass rail transitMetro Rail Transit Corporationmass transit systemNinoy Aquino International Airportiv

UGUSAIDUVVRPV/CVOCWHOWVFSNAIA ExpresswayNational Economic and Development AuthorityNational Framework Strategy on Climate ChangeNorth Luzon East ExpresswayNorth Luzon Expresswaynitrogen oxidenitrogen dioxideNational Statistical Coordinating BoardNorth–South Commuter RailwayNational Statistical OfficeNational Spatial Strategyozoneoperation and maintenanceleadpassenger car unitPhilippine Development PlanPhilippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical ServicesAdministrationpoint-to-pointRepublic of the PhilippinesPhilippine pesoPhilippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismologyplanned integrated communityparticulate matterPhilippine National Railwayspublic-private partnershipPhilippine Statistics Authoritypublic utility jeepneypublic utility vehicleQuezon–Bicol Expresswayradio frequency identifierright of waySubic–Clark–Tarlac ExpresswaySan Jose Del MonteSouth Luzon ExpresswaySoutheast Metro Manila Expresswaysulphur dioxideSouthern Tagalog Arterial RoadTraffic Engineering and Management TeamTransit-oriented developmentTarlac–Pangasinan–La Union ExpresswayThree Year Rolling Investment PlanundergroundUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentUnified Vehicular Volume Reduction Programvolume/capacityvolatile organic compoundsWorld Health OrganizationWest Valley Fault Systemv

Follow-up Survey on Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region (GCR)FINAL REPORTSummary1INTRODUCTION1.The rapid (and unplanned) growth of the capital city has spawned multiple problems.The government has tried to address these several times – by initiating the preparation ofmaster plans, often with assistance from ODAs.2.In the 1970s, there was an ambitious plan for 10 radial railway lines under the “UrbanTransport Strategy for Metro Manila Area”, followed by a more realistic “Metro Manila UrbanLand Use and Transport Plan (METROPLAN)”.3.In the last two decades, the most significant ones were: “Metro Manila UrbanTransportation Integration Studies (MMUTIS)” in 1999, and the “Roadmap for TransportInfrastructure Development for Metro Manila and Its Surrounding Areas” in 2014. The latterhas been dubbed the Dream Plan, because it dared to answer a question previouslyunasked: what would banish traffic congestion in the region and make it livable, sustainable,and resilient by year 2030?4.This Study is a sequel and an update of the Dream Plan – albeit, with a longer timehorizon to 2035 and the inclusion of adjustments emanating from the priorities and directionslaunched by a new administration.5.The efforts took into consideration several pre-existing plans, such as: ThePhilippine Development Plan 2017-2022, the Central Luzon Regional Development Plan2017- 2022, the CALABARZON Development Plan 2017-2022, Metro Manila Green Print2030, the provincial physical framework plan of Bulacan, the MCA Preliminary MasterDevelopment Plan, comprehensive land use plans of LGUs in the study area, and manyother insights from various stakeholders.6.Although its official title is “Follow Up Survey on Roadmap for TransportInfrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region”, its scope and contents can best becapsulized as“A Transportation Roadmap to Year 2035 for Mega Manila.”2ASPIRATIONS7.The prosaic objectives of the Study is to update the transport developmentstrategies and policies, and the corresponding 20-year package of infrastructure projects. Itis an update (and a sequel) to a previous Roadmap conducted by JICA in 2013, that hasbeen dubbed – fondly - as a “Dream Plan.”8.In many ways, it is a “Dream” that embodied the collective aspirations of theresidents of the most urbanized region of the Philippines for a livable city – free from chronictraffic jams, free from the health hazards of air and noise pollution, able to move seamlesslyfrom one place to another undeterred by high costs and travel time, and a community freedfrom the slums dotting non-habitable places.9.It is no different from the goals of sustainable mobility and accessibility, that animatecities of the developed World - ehere sustainability is viewed in three dimensions: social,environmental, and economic. Efficient and inclusive urban access and mobility is at thecore of sustainable urban development, poverty reduction and growth.1

Follow-up Survey on Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region (GCR)FINAL REPORTSummary10.For the public sector, the purpose of this Study is to formulate a common game plan(a Unified Agenda) for the many agencies of government involved in urban transportation.A previous version of the Plan was adopted by the NEDA Board in September 2014 to avertheavy congestion in Mega Manila by 2030 and improve mobility, connectivity and quality oflife.11.It is also an articulation of the long term goals of “Ambisyon Natin 2040” in the prioritysectors of Connectivity and Urban Development, and is aligned on the medium-term withthe Philippine Development Plan isionand MobilitySustainableeSustaUrbanDevelopmenHazard RisktManagementResettlementAffordable& NewHousingUrban HubsSource: JICA Study TeamFigure 2.1 Study Approach3CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS1) Scale of Conurbation12.By global standards, MetroManila ranks 7th among the largestcities of the World. This scale comeswith complex (often, intractable)problems – especially for adeveloping country. With a 2015population of 12.9 billion, on 620km2 of land, it has density higherthan Tokyo and Seoul.13.As the national capitalregion, Metro Manila has been thefocus of past master planningstudies. Non-implementations overthe years, however, have led to DP(PHP buil.)25,000 0001,00000MetroRegion III Region IV-A VisayasManilaPopulation (000)PrimarySecondaryMindanaoTertiarySource: JICA Study Team based on NSO 2015 and NSCB 2015.1/ n.a. no available dataFigure 3.1 Profile of the Study Area2

Follow-up Survey on Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Greater Capital Region (GCR)FINAL REPORTSummary14.Aside from population, its economic size dwarfs that of other regions. Its continuingvitality is therefore of national significance.15.For more than 3 decades, the efforts to dial down the growth of the capital via agrowth pole strategy (higher and rapid growths in other regions of the Philippines) combinedwith decentralization policy have not reversed the trend. From 31% share of GDP in 1990,Metro Manila’s share of the economic pie rose to 41% in 2015. Thus, earning for the regionthe moniker “imperial Manila”.16.As a consequence, urbanization has spilled over – in an uncontrolled fashion - tothe neighboring provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, and Cavite – embracing an area of20,289 km2 and a population of 25.8 million.17.Unavoidably, the locus of planning has gone beyond Metro Manila, to Mega Manila,and to a larger area that includes Central Luzon and Calabarzon. This expanded Tri-Regionplanning space is 39,508 km2 (nearly 64 times the area of NCR); with a population of 38.5million (38% of the Philippines).Source: JICA Study TeamSource: JICA Study TeamFigure 3.2 Population Distribution in 2015Figure 3.3 Urban Expansion2) Current Challenges18.Failure to implement plans over three decades have spawned severe trafficcongestion, heavy air and water pollution, lack of affordable housing and swaths of blightedzones. These problems are compounded by the region’s vulnerability to natural hazards(flooding, landslides, and earthquakes).3