A Circular Solution To Plastic Waste

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A Circular Solutionto Plastic Waste

Boston Consulting Group partners with leaders in business and society to tackle their mostimportant challenges and capture their greatest opportunities. BCG was the pioneer in businessstrategy when it was founded in 1963. Today, we help clients with total transformation—inspiringcomplex change, enabling organizations to grow, building competitive advantage, and drivingbottom-line impact.To succeed, organizations must blend digital and human capabilities. Our diverse, global teamsbring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives to spark change. BCGdelivers solutions through leading-edge management consulting along with technology anddesign, corporate and digital ventures—and business purpose. We work in a uniquelycollaborative model across the firm and throughout all levels of the client organization,generating results that allow our clients to thrive.

A CIRCULAR SOLUTIONTO PLASTIC WASTEHOLGER RUBELUDO JUNGCLINT FOLLETTEALEXANDER MEYER ZUM FELDESANTOSH APPATHURAIMIRIAM BENEDI DÍAZJuly 2019 Boston Consulting Group

CONTENTS3INTRODUCTIONA Big and Growing ProblemNew Circular TechnologiesThe Business Case for Pyrolysis7A CHALLENGE OF INCREASING SCALE AND COMPLEXITY9THE HIERARCHY OF WASTEPrevention and ReductionReuseMechanical RecyclingChemical Recycling or Plastics RegenerationIncineration and Landfilling—Big Steps Down14PLASTICS REGENERATION FILLS THE GAP16THE ECONOMICS OF PYROLYSISMature: Singapore and Seine-Maritime—the Challenges ofVolume and Market StructureModerately Developed: The US Gulf Coast—Sufficient Quantities,Low CostsNascent: Guangdong and Zhejiang—High Volumes, High CostsThe Environmental Impact of PyrolysisAdditional Challenges22ACHIEVING PYROLYSIS AT SCALEIndustryGovernment Regulations24A VIABLE SOLUTION—NOW AND INTO THE FUTURE25FOR FURTHER READING26NOTE TO THE READER2 A Circular Solution to Plastic Waste

INTRODUCTION“We have met the enemy and he is us!”Walt Kelly’s memorable poster of Pogo standing at themouth of a trash-filled Okefenokee Swamp marked the firstEarth Day in 1970. The world’s use of, and dependence on, plastics tosimplify and enable modern lives has only increased in the 50 yearssince. And so inevitably has the amount of plastic waste—by someestimates, it’s now ten times higher. Our methods to manage thiswaste have not keep pace, however. Today, we have the opportunityto turn the tide through circular-economy solutions that expand thescope of recycling methods, but doing so requires support fromindustry participants across the plastics value chain.Plastics have become indispensable products that are both essentialto modern life and a leading example of the complications that canbe created by linear—make-use-dispose—economies. Plastics providesafe drinks, reduce food waste, and enable the storage and transportof medicines. They are essential for medical implants. Their lightweight and durability aid in reducing carbon footprints along complexglobal-logistics value chains. We produce some 350 million tons ofplastics every year. The problem is that about 250 million end up inlandfills or the environment and 10 million in oceans.A Big and Growing ProblemEnvironmentalists and NGOs have long warned about the impact ofplastic waste on land, water, and air. Today, regulators, industries, andsociety alike recognize the need to limit plastic waste and identifynew solutions to the problem. Many countries—some 60 so far,according to the UN—have responded with steps to constrain plasticsconsumption and environmentally detrimental means of disposal.Policymakers are increasingly restricting, and in some cases banning,single-use and flexible plastic products, such as shopping bags. Theyare also limiting disposal of plastic waste in landfills. Consumercompanies, including restaurants and airlines, are cutting back on orentirely abandoning the use of plastic straws, plates, and cutlery.Although these actions have yet to materially reduce the volume ofwaste, they have sent a clear signal that the status quo can shiftrapidly.Reuse and recycling have proved effective at mitigating some types ofplastic waste. Mechanical recycling (recovering plastic waste throughmechanical processes) is common in some markets, but current technologies require a well-developed supply chain, including strong sortBoston Consulting Group 3

ing, washing, and grinding capabilities. In addition, mechanical recycling cannot handle some of the most commonly used plastics ormany advanced polymers designed to be resource efficient and mitigate climate change. Stronger efforts are needed to promote materialsthat are designed for recyclability, but current mechanical-recyclingtechnologies will eventually reach their limits.New Circular TechnologiesRecent years have seen heightened interest in the potential of circulartechnologies to break, or at least mitigate the adverse effects of, themake-use-dispose model. Chemical recycling, in a couple of forms, hasemerged as a feasible solution to provide decentralized and morebroadly applicable recycling systems. One technique involves decomposition, or monomer recycling, in which a polymer is chemically converted back into its constituent monomers, making it a perfectly circular option that reverses the original polymerization process. Therelated process of conversion, or plastic-to-fuel (PTF) recycling, converts plastics into the equivalent of crude oil or petrochemical feedstock that can be fed into refineries or chemical plants, respectively.Both of these chemical-recycling processes can be more fully described as plastics regeneration in circular-economy terms. (See Exhibit 1.) Several methods of both monomer recycling and PTF havebeen demonstrated at the lab scale, from pyrolysis to newer technologies such as hydrothermal liquefaction.1,2The lower costs and ease of application of PTF technology provide aviable alternative for treating plastic waste until we are capable offully closing the loop on all plastic materials. The most common PTFtechnology, pyrolysis, has the potential to fill a significant gap on theplastics disposal-reuse spectrum and provide a means of repurposingmany types of plastic waste for which no feasible mechanicalrecycling options currently exist. Moreover, as we describe in thisExhibit 1 An Overview of Chemical RecyclingPLASTICS REGENERATIONDecomposition ormonomer recyclingConversion or plastic-to-fuel(PTF) recycling Chemolysis Hydrolysis Methanolysis Glycolysis Aminolysis Other methods Pyrolysis Fluid catalytic cracking Hydrogen technologies KDV1 process Gasification Hydrothermal liquefaction2 Other methodsSome outputs of PTF recycling may bereconverted into monomersSource: BCG analysis.1German acronym for Katalytische Drucklose Verölung, or catalytic pressure-free conversion to oil.2“Use of super-critical water for the liquefaction of polypropylene into water,” Chen et al., ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng.,2019:7;3749–58.4 A Circular Solution to Plastic Waste

report, pyrolysis presents a promising business case, especially forchemical companies, which can adopt a new technology that is closeto their core capabilities while simultaneously helping to developsmarter solutions for managing plastic waste.The Business Case for PyrolysisBCG recently completed several comprehensive analyses of globalwaste markets, collection systems, recycling regulations, and businesscases for mechanical recycling, as well as the economic viability of anumber of conversion technologies. We chose pyrolysis as one example for further detailing, including the business cases and financial incentives for companies to invest in, build, and operate pyrolysis facilities. We examined the PTF value chain, the costs of the pyrolysisprocess, and its market potential. As part of the assessment, welooked at the environmental impact of pyrolysis, as well as its challenges, and studied how various factors and trends play out in threetypes of markets common around the world, ranging from those thatare largely unregulated and immature with respect to plastics collection to those that are highly regulated with well-developed collectionchains.The analysis was reviewed with experts from the chemical industry,waste management companies, circular-economy organizations, andacademia. (See the sidebar “Our Thanks to the Experts.”)Our main conclusion is that while the financial and business challenges vary, conversion technologies such as pyrolysis are economically viable in all the market types we studied. In some, pyrolysis can havean immediate and substantial impact—it has the potential to treat upOUR THANKS TO THE EXPERTSThe authors are very grateful for thesupport they received in producing thisreport. Their special thanks go to thefollowing experts who provided invaluableinsight and expertise:Brendan Edgerton, director circulareconomy, WBCSDCraig Halgreen, director sustainabilityand public affairs, BorealisHarald Friedl, CEO, Circle EconomyLadeja Godina Kosir, executive director,Circular ChangeLars Krejberg Petersen, CEO andadministrative director, Dansk RetursystemMarc de Wit, CFO, Circle EconomyMaria Mendiluce, managing directorclimate and energy, WBCSDNiko Kopar, circular-economy expert,Circular ChangeNien-Hwa Linda Wang, Maxine SpencerNichols professor of chemical engineering,Purdue UniversityThe authors also thank the chemicalcompanies from across the world, globalwaste management companies, consumerindustry companies, and environmentalNGOs that contributed invaluable inputwithout wanting to be referenced by name.Boston Consulting Group 5

to two-thirds of the plastic waste generated in Jakarta, for example. Inothers, the business case is feasible only if governments act to makeinexpensive and environmentally detrimental means of disposal—principally landfills—less financially attractive.Within the current hierarchy of solutions, pyrolysis can play an important role in mitigating the environmental impact of plastics in thenear to medium term. The more companies, governments, and institutions invest in or support conversion technologies such as pyrolysis,the greater their ability to contribute to solving this global environmental problem.Notes1. “Chemical recycling of waste plastics for new materials production,” Rahimi andGarcia, Nature Reviews Chemistry, 2017:1;0046.2. “Use of super-critical water for the liquefaction of polypropylene into water,” Chenet al., ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng., 2019:7;3749–58.6 A Circular Solution to Plastic Waste

A CHALLENGE OFINCREASING SCALE ANDCOMPLEXITYThe problem is vast, global, and complex. Some estimates indicate thathumans have manufactured more than 9billion tons of plastics in the past century,most of it since the 1950s. In recent decades,the rising middle class in emerging marketshas sent production soaring; half of history’splastics have been produced in the past 15years. The top 20 countries account for 75%to 90% of the total global plastics consumption, most of it in the form of packaging. (SeeExhibit 2.) Of the 9 billion tons of plasticsproduced, almost 7 billion have becomewaste. The UN predicts that under currentconsumption rates and waste managementpractices, approximately 12 billion tons ofplastic waste will be dumped into landfillsand leaked into the environment by 2050.Flexible packaging accountsfor about 50% of all plasticsconsumption.Plastics exist in at least seven major forms,each with its own chemical composition andpurpose. (See Exhibit 3.) Plastic types vary intheir ability to be recycled. PET and HDPE,for example, lend themselves to reuse andmechanical recycling, whereas other plasticsare disposed of after their intended use. Addi-tives and adhesives make recycling evenmore challenging. Among plastics that aredesigned for disposal, the impact of a plasticmaterial type depends on its time in use—some are made for single use while othersare designed for longer-lasting applications,increasing their life cycle and reducing theirenvironmental impact when consideredover time.Flexible packaging is one example of a singleuse plastic that is typically disposed of after ashort time. This material accounts for about50% of all plastics consumption—and also forhalf of the total plastic litter in the ocean.Much of the flexible and mixed-layer plasticused in packaging is not suitable formechanical recycling.Additionally, because of behaviors and habits, as well as the absence of a well-developedsorting and recovery infrastructure and process, various types of plastic end up mixed together in municipal solid waste (MSW). Thesefactors complicate existing mechanicalrecycling efforts and often result in somewaste being disposed of through a combination of industrial, commercial, and informalmeans and other waste accumulating in landfills or escaping collection systems entirelyand leaking into the environment.Boston Consulting Group 7

Exhibit 2 The Problem: High Consumption and Low Recycling and Recovery RatesEstimated plastics consumption by country, 2017 ny7,8563861Turkey6,958100Russia6,949402South 9N/AUK3,4312931Vietnam3,332820Saudi ruction80,000Electrical100,000(kt)OthersSources: EPA; Plastics Europe; press search; VDMA; BCG analysis.Note: Global plastics consumption was estimated at 250–350 million tons in 2017. Plastics comprise thermoplastics such as PVC, PE (HD-PE, LDPE, LLD-PE), PP, PS (GP and HI), ABS, SAN, PET resin, PA (PA6 and PA66), as well as PC. Different countries use varying reporting criteria, so thenumbers indicate the average of different types of plastic. Official recycling numbers are often overstated and are adjusted where possible.N/A not available.1Official sources vary (15–60%); actual treatment is probably lower.2The government plans to build five incineration plants by 2025.Exhibit 3 Plastic Types Have Different Uses and MakeupsMilk bottles;shampoo, chemical,and detergent bottlesPET1PVC23HDPEWater bottles,food containers#Plastic cutlery, CDand video cases,hot-drink cups,protective packagingSqueeze bottles,other cling wrap,rubbish bags45LDPECosmetic containers,commercial cling wrap67EPS/PSMicrowave dishes,potato chip bagsPET and PVC are not optimal feedstock for a pyrolysis unit.Source: The New Plastics Economy: Rethinking the Future of Plastics, World Economic Forum, 2016.8 A Circular Solution to Plastic WasteOtherPPMixed-useplastics

THE HIERARCHY OF WASTEWe use a pyramid of plastic wastemanagement to describe the manyways of managing the plastic waste that wegenerate. (See Exhibit 4.) Outside of reducingthe amount of waste generated, reusingplastics is the best alternative. Leakage ofplastic waste into the environment is theleast desirable, and disposal in landfills isonly marginally preferable. Various stakeholder groups are actively pursuing initiativesto push waste management practices towardthe upper end of the hierarchy. The immedi-ate concern is to avoid plastics entering theenvironment, especially the oceans. Forregions with established collection systems,an intermediate target is to find ways toreduce the use of landfills and incineration,which amplifies the critical role of reduction,reuse, recycling, and regeneration.While the hierarchy of plastic waste management provides high-level guidance on whichtype of recycling is preferable, local specifications need to be considered on a case-by-caseExhibit 4 The Pyramid of Plastic Waste Management Prevention of plastic use where unnecessary Reduction of single-use and unnecessary plastics and packagingPrevention and reduction Production of reusable-plastic containers Design for long life and increased utilizationReuseConventionalmechanical recyclingMechanical recycling(designed for recyclability)Chemical recycling orplastics regenerationPurification processDecomposition ormonomer recyclingConversion or PTF Closing the loop of high-value materials (e.g., PET, PP, HDPE) Requirement for sorting technologies or separated collection systems Recycling of low-value materials (e.g., foils, blends) Value proposition in remote areas for decentralized solutions Energy recovery through burning of waste Only favorable as a last resource because possible only for oneadditional cycleIncinerationLandfillingLeakage intothe environment Indefinite loss of raw material, which should be avoided Disposal in landfills or environment of about 250 million tons of the350 million tons of plastics produced annually Worst-case scenario with waste leakage into the environment andeventually into the oceanSource: BCG.Boston Consulting Group 9

basis using thorough environmental- andsocietal-impact evaluations. In addition, afull life cycle assessment of the materialssometimes conveys surprising results. Forexample, materials that improve the environmental performance of a product, such aslightweight plastic for airplanes, may appearecofriendly at first but are less so when analyzed in full because they are not extractableor recyclable. For materials such as these, anear-term solution is needed to effectivelymanage plastic waste.Too many plastics are usedfor applications that arecentral to sustaineddevelopment.In early 2018, China upended the global recycling business when it stopped accepting imports of low-quality or highly polluting postconsumer plastic waste, citing purity issues.For years, China had taken up to 45% of theworld’s plastic waste imports for recycling, incineration, and landfilling. The ramificationsof this decision are still being felt in marketsworldwide.Prevention and ReductionSingle-use flexible plastics have simplifiedour lives considerably, especially in the developing world, but they are also the most problematic aspect of plastic waste generationand management. Most single-use plastics arediscarded after their first use, and far toomany mar roadsides, forests, rivers, and seas.The most effective solution is to reduce consumption. More than 50 governments havebanned at least some types of single-use plastics. India and several other countries haveimposed levies and taxes on the manufactureof such products. Governments can be expected to further incorporate sustainabilityconsiderations into their purchasing contracts. Industry players, led by consumerfacing companies, are starting to take steps toeliminate the use of plastic shopping bagsand to develop other more sustainable solu10 A Circular Solution to Plastic Wastetions. Restaurants are promoting refillablecups and turning to renewable, recycled, ordegradable materials for plates, cups, andcutlery, for example.These are significant steps, but it is notrealistic to expect near- or medium-termmiracles. Plastics are too cheap and convenient, and the waste problem has yet to workits way to the top of the priority list in manyjurisdictions. Moreover, even in the long term,too many plastics are used for crucial applications—such as health, safety, and sanitation—that are central to our sustaineddevelopment and progress.ReuseAfter reducing consumption, reuse is the nextbest alternative. Reuse maintains the integrity and purpose of the product and has minimal environmental impact because washingis typically the only processing required. Manufacturers are producing an increasing number of reusable containers that are designedexpressly for long life and increased utilization. But the application of reuse is limited,especially for containers that hold food,drinks, and chemical or toxic substances. Certain refillable hard plastic bottle systems arein use, but especially for applications such asfood grade packaging, reusability is difficultto apply. A few countries are even witnessinga reverse trend: reus

6 A Circular Solution to Plastic Waste to two-thirds of the plastic waste generated in Jakarta, for example. In others, the business case is feasible only if governments act to make inexpensive and environmentally detrimental means of disposal— principally landfills—less financially attractive.

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