Regional Economic And Demographic Market Analysis And .
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis andEconomic Impact Assessment of the Port Covington Project UnderArmour Headquarters ProjectPrepared for:December 2015Submitted by:Battelle Technology Partnership Practice505 King AvenueColumbus, OH 43201Battelle endeavors at all times to produce work of the highest quality, consistent with our contract commitments. However,because of the research and/or experimental nature of this work the client undertakes the sole responsibility for theconsequence of any use or misuse of, or inability to use, any information, apparatus, process or result obtained from Battelle,and Battelle, its employees, officers, or Trustees have no legal liability for the accuracy, adequacy, or efficacy thereof. B attelledoes not engage in research for advertising, sales promotion, or endorsement of our clients’ interests including raisinginvestment capital or recommending investments decisions, or other publicity purposes, or for any use in litigation.
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectTable of ContentsPageAcronyms and Abbreviations . vii1.0 Introduction and Executive Summary . 11.1 Overview of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project. 11.2 Role of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project in the Cityand Regional Economy . 21.3 The Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project in the Context ofState and Regional Economic Development and National Real Estate Trends . 81.4 The Economic and Fiscal Impacts of the Port Covington/Under ArmourHeadquarters Project . 91.4.1 City Level Impacts . 91.4.2 State Level Impacts . 102.0 Strategic Importance of the Port Covington/Under Armour HeadquartersProject . 132.1 Role of Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project in State andRegional Economic Development. 142.2 Case Study – The Development of the Athletic and Outdoor Industry Clusterin Portland Oregon . 182.3 Summary and Conclusion . 203.0 Consistency of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project withNational Economic and Real Estate Trends . 213.1 The Re-urbanization of Both Population and Jobs . 223.2 The Rise of the Creative Class . 253.3 The Emergence of Cities as the Center of the Entrepreneurial and InnovationEconomy . 273.4 A Trend Toward Urban Mixed-Use Developments. 293.5 The Rise of Urban Innovation Districts . 323.6 The Rise of Super-Commuters in Urban Areas . 333.7 The Development of Multi-nodal Downtown Business Areas . 343.8 Summary and Conclusion . 364.0 The Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project in the Context ofBaltimore Regional Population, Economic, and Real Estate Trends . 374.1 Regional Population Trends . 374.2 Migration Trends . 464.3 Regional Economic Trends . 494.4 Regional Real Estate Trends . 574.4.1 CoStar Regional Real Estate Analysis . 604.4.2 Summary . 734.5 Population and Employment Projections . 744.6 Summary and Conclusion . 80i
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectTable of Contents (Cont.)Page5.0 The Economic and Fiscal Impact of the Port Covington/Under ArmourHeadquarters Project . 815.1 Baltimore City and Maryland Impacts . 865.1.1 Baltimore City Impacts . 875.1.2 State of Maryland Impacts . 955.2 Economic Impact Methodology and Terms . 105Appendix A: Key City, Regional, and State Development Key InformantsInterviewed . 107Appendix B: Key Port Covington / Under Armour Key Informants Interviewed . 108Appendix C: IMPLAN Estimated State and Local Government Revenue Impacts . 109ii
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectList of TablesPageTable 1. Overview of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project.2Table 2. Baltimore City Demographic and Housing Profile .42Table 3. Baltimore City Resident Educational Attainment and Occupation .43Table 4. Baltimore Metropolitan Area Demographic and Housing Profile .44Table 5. Baltimore Metropolitan Area Resident Educational Attainment and Occupation .45Table 6. IRS Migration Data .49Table 7. Private Sector Employment Trends in Maryland, the Baltimore Metropolitan Area,and Baltimore City .55Table 8. Industry Specialization in Maryland, the Baltimore Metropolitan Area, andBaltimore City .56Table 9. Baltimore City Population and Household Projections .77Table 10. Baltimore Metropolitan Area Population and Household Projections .77Table 11. Baltimore City Employment Projections .78Table 12. Baltimore Metropolitan Area Employment Projections .79Table 13. Port Covington Project, Projected Delivery Schedule .85Table 14. Port Covington Project Total Baltimore City Construction Impacts by Year .89Table 15. Port Covington Project – Mixed-Use Development Baltimore City ConstructionImpacts by Year .89Table 16. Port Covington Project – Under Armour Campus Baltimore City ConstructionImpacts by Year .90Table 17. Total Port Covington Construction Baltimore City Impacts – Over 23-YearConstruction Period .91Table 18. Under Armour and Port Covington Tenants – Baltimore City Operational Impactsby Year .92Table 19. Port Covington Tenants – Baltimore City Operational Impacts by Year .93Table 20. Under Armour Headquarters Campus – Baltimore City Operational Impacts byYear.93Table 21. Baltimore City – Total Construction and Total Under Armour/Tenant SupportedJobs by Industry and Average Employee Compensation .94Table 22. Port Covington Project Total Maryland Construction Impacts by Year .97Table 23. Port Covington Project – Mixed-Use Development Maryland ConstructionImpacts by Year .97iii
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectList of Tables (Cont.)PageTable 24. Port Covington Project – Under Armour Campus Maryland Construction Impactsby Year .98Table 25. Total Port Covington Construction Maryland Impacts Over 23-Year ConstructionPeriod .99Table 26. Under Armour and Port Covington Tenants – Maryland Operational Impacts byYear.100Table 27. Port Covington Tenants – Maryland Operational Impacts by Year .100Table 28. Under Armour Headquarters Campus – Maryland Operational Impacts by Year .101Table 29. Maryland Impacts – Total Construction and Total Under Armour/TenantSupported by Industry and Average Employee Compensation .102Table 30. Maryland Impacts – Total Construction and Total Under Armour/TenantSupported Jobs by County .103Table 31. Total Baltimore City Primary Jobs by Place of Worker Residence .104iv
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectList of FiguresPageFigure 1. Recent Baltimore City Employment and Population Trends .3Figure 2. Baltimore City’s Share of Creative Class Employed Residents and Jobs .6Figure 3. Baltimore City and Regional Growth in Creative Class Jobs and EmployedResidents .7Figure 4. Baltimore City and Regional Growth in Creative Class Jobs and EmployedResidents .26Figure 5. Baltimore City’s Share of Creative Class Employed Residents and Jobs .27Figure 6. United States, Maryland, and Baltimore Population Since 1990 .38Figure 7. Selected Components of Demographic Change in Baltimore City and theBaltimore Suburbs, 2000-2013 .40Figure 8. Direct Under Armour and Tenant Jobs in the Port Covington Project by Sector .41Figure 9. Baltimore Metropolitan Area Net Migration .47Figure 10. Baltimore City Net Migration .48Figure 11. United States, Maryland, and Baltimore Employment Since 2000 .50Figure 12. Baltimore City’s Share of Metropolitan Area Employment .50Figure 13. Baltimore Metropolitan Area New Housing Units Authorized for Construction byBuilding Permits .57Figure 14. Baltimore City New Housing Units Authorized for Construction by BuildingPermits .58Figure 15. Baltimore City’s Share of Metropolitan Area New Housing Units Authorized forConstruction by Building Permits .58Figure 16. Baltimore City and Metropolitan Area Non-Residential Building Permit Activity .59Figure 17. Baltimore City’s Share of Metropolitan Area Non-Residential Building PermitActivity .60Figure 18. Total Net Absorption in Class A Office Space, Baltimore Metro Region and Cityof Baltimore, 2001-14 .63Figure 19. Total Net Absorption in Class A Office Space, Central Business District andHarbor East, 2001-14 .64Figure 20. Vacancy Rates in Class A Office Space, Baltimore Metro Region and City ofBaltimore, 2001-14 .65Figure 21. Vacancy Rates in Class A Office Space, Central Business District and HarborEast, 2001-14 .66Figure 22. Average Leasing Rates, Levels, and Recent Trends, 2008-14 .67v
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectList of Figures (Cont.)PageFigure 23. Total Net Absorption in Retail, Baltimore Metro Region and City of Baltimore,2006-14 .69Figure 24. Total Net Absorption in Retail, Baltimore’s Central Business District, 2006-14.70Figure 25. Vacancy Rates in Retail, Baltimore Metro Region, City of Baltimore and theCBD, 2006-14 .71Figure 26. Average Leasing Rates, Levels and Recent Trends, 2012-14 .72Figure 27. Port Covington Project Construction Expenditures by Year .83Figure 28. Estimated Direct Job Creation in the Port Covington Project .86vi
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington ProjectAcronyms and AbbreviationsAcronymCAGRDefinitionCompound Annual Growth RateCBDCentral Business DistrictCEDSComprehensive Economic Development StrategyEAGBEconomic Alliance of Greater BaltimoreEBDIEast Baltimore Development, Inc.ESRIEnvironmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.IMPLANIRSLEHDLQImpact Model used in this analysisInternal Revenue ServiceLongitudinal Employer-Household Dynamicslocation quotientsNAICSNorth American Industry Classification SystemNAIOPNational Association for Industrial and Office ParksQCEWQuarterly Census of Employment and WagesSFTPPsquare feetBattelle Technology Partnership Practicevii
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington Project1.0 Introduction and Executive SummaryThe Battelle Technology Partnership Practice (TPP) was retained by Sagamore Development,LLC to prepare two analyses of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project: An economic, demographic, and market assessment of the Baltimore City andmetropolitan area to assess how local conditions will shape and influence the success ofthis project; and An analysis of the economic impact of the Port Covington/Under Armour HeadquartersProject.The goal of these two analyses is to assess the role and importance of the development of thePort Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project in the city, regional, and state economy.1.1 Overview of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters ProjectThe Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project is a potentially transformativeinvestment in the next phase of Baltimore’s ongoing urban renaissance. Consisting of 200 acreson the tip of the south Baltimore peninsula and bounded by I-95 and Baltimore Harbor, the PortCovington site will house the corporate headquarters of Under Armour, one of Maryland’s mostdynamic, home-grown companies. The project will also include a separate major mixed-use,live-work-play development. Port Covington represents a large scale redevelopment effort thatwill reshape Baltimore as a place to live, work, and play. The project will consist of thefollowing key elements: Mixed-Use Phase:o 1.2 million square feet of retail space;o 1.0 million square feet of office space;o A hotel with an estimated 640 rooms;o The Sagamore Spirit Distillery, along with various types of planned arts andentertainment space;o 148,000 square feet of incubator space in the City Garage, an innovative projectthat will include both an Under Armour manufacturing testing and scale-upfacility as well as a shared manufacturing space open to other Baltimore andregional firms, entrepreneurs, and residents; ando A total of 4.8 million square feet of residential space made up of 3,820 apartmentswith anticipated rents of 2,200 per month and 855 condominiums with ananticipated average sales price of 350,000.1
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington Project Under Armour Corporate Headquarters Campus Phase – the Port Covington/UnderArmour Headquarters Project will be anchored by a new corporate headquarters campusfor Under Armour, which will consist of:o 2.3 million square feet of office space; ando 500,000 square feet of innovation space. Table 1 provides an overview of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters Project.Table 1. Overview of the Port Covington/Under Armour Headquarters ProjectTotal Construction Budget – 5.5 BillionProject Description at Build-OutMixed-Use Development PhaseRetail/Restaurant SpaceOffice SpaceOther Space (Incubator, Distillery, Hotel)HotelHousing - Apartments/CondominiumsHousing - Apartments/CondominiumsUnder Armour Corporate CampusOffice SpaceInnovation SpaceValue7,525,820 ft21,198,272 ft21,046,482 ft2505,632 ft2640 rooms4,775,434 ft24,775 units2,783,000
Regional Economic and Demographic Market Analysis and Economic Impact Assessment: Port Covington Project ii Table of Contents (Cont.) Page 5.0 The Economic and Fiscal Impact of the Port Covington/Under Armour
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Key words: Organization, Classical theory, Taylor, Fayol and Weber. Introduction The society we belong is an organizational society. Modern society has retained high morale value of rationality, efficiency and effectiveness in contrast to previous society (Etzioni, 1964). There are relationships between individuals and organizations. It is
