New Regulatory Trends: Effects On Coal-fired Power Plants .
New regulatory trends:effects on coal-fired powerplants and coal demandHerminé Nalbandian-SugdenCCC/262December 2015 IEA Clean Coal Centre
New regulatory trends: effects oncoal-fired power plants and coal demandAuthor:Herminé C Ref:Copyright:Published Date:CCC/262 IEA Clean Coal CentreDecember 2015IEA Clean Coal Centre14 NorthfieldsLondon SW18 1DDUnited KingdomTelephone: 44(0)20 8877 6280www.iea-coal.orgIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand2
PrefaceThis report has been produced by IEA Clean Coal Centre and is based on a survey and analysis of publishedliterature, and on information gathered in discussions with interested organisations and individuals. Theirassistance is gratefully acknowledged. It should be understood that the views expressed in this report are ourown, and are not necessarily shared by those who supplied the information, nor by our member countries.IEA Clean Coal Centre is an organisation set up under the auspices of the International Energy Agency (IEA)which was itself founded in 1974 by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment (OECD). The purpose of the IEA is to explore means by which countries interested in minimisingtheir dependence on imported oil can co-operate. In the field of Research, Development and Demonstrationover fifty individual projects have been established in partnership between member countries of the IEA.IEA Clean Coal Centre began in 1975 and has contracting parties and sponsors from: Australia, Austria, China,the European Commission, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Thailand,the UK and the USA. The Service provides information and assessments on all aspects of coal from supply andtransport, through markets and end-use technologies, to environmental issues and waste utilisation.Neither IEA Clean Coal Centre nor any of its employees nor any supporting country or organisation, nor anyemployee or contractor of IEA Clean Coal Centre, makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes anylegal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of any information, apparatus,product or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately-owned rights.IEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand3
AbstractThis review presents the recent regulatory trends, practices and developments, in major coal producingand consuming countries, which are affecting and may influence future demand for coal and coal-firedpower generation. As legislative requirements become more demanding and environmental pressuresincrease, especially with regard to greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and climate change, investment incoal fired power-generating facilities is declining rapidly in most developed countries and to a lesserextent in some developing regions of the world, except Asia where forecasts indicate that demand willincrease for some time to come. The report explores the implications of further curbs on GHG emissionsfrom coal-fired plants in the most recent and forthcoming national regulations and internationalagreements. Policy, legislation and pollution reduction strategies are presented as well as futureprojections of coal utilisation in major coal consuming economies, including those where forecastsindicate that coal will remain a major player in power generation for the estimable future; such as Chinaand India.IEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand4
Acronyms and SPEUFCCCFFFGDFOBGRPICCTFAgency for the Cooperation of Energy RegulatorsDurban Platform for Enhanced Actionannual energy outlook (EIA, USA)Asia Pacific Economic CooperationAsia Pacific Energy Research CentreAsia Europe Foundationbest available technologybusiness as usualBuild-Own-Operate-Transferbest available techniques reference documentbest system of emission reductionClean Air Act (USA)compound annual growth ratecarbon capture and storagecarbon capture, utilisation and storageClean Development MechanismClean Energy Regulator (Australia)Center on Globalization, Governance and Competitiveness (USA)Coal India LimitedCommonwealth of Independent StatesCouncil of Australian Governments (Australia)Conference of the PartiesClean Power Plan (USA)Cross State Air Pollution Rule (USA)Commission on Sustainable DevelopmentConcentrated solar powerCoal Task ForceDepartment of Energy and Climate Change (UK)European CommissionEuropean Central BankEmissions Database for Global Atmospheric ResearchEnergy Efficiency Action PlanEnergy Information Administration (USA)Environmental Impact Assessment Directiveemission limit valueenhanced oil recoveryEmissions Reduction Fund (Australia)Energy Security and Climate Initiative (USA)Effort Sharing Decisionelectrostatic precipitationEuropean UnionFrame Convention on Climate Changefabric filtrationflue gas desulphurisationFree on board or freight on boardGreen Rating Project (India)Indonesia Climate Change Trust FundIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand5
IEAIEA RBRESRGGISAPPSCRSEDUNUNECEInternational Energy AgencyIEA Clean Coal CentreIndustrial Emissions DirectiveInstitute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (USA)integrated gasification combined cycleImplementation and Enforcement of Environmental Lawintended nationally determined contributionsInternational Partnership for Energy Efficiency CooperationIndependent Power ProducersIntegrated Pollution Prevention and Control DirectiveIntegrated Resources Plan (South Africa)Joint ImplementationJoint Research Centrekilo-tonne of oil equivalentLarge Combustion Plants Directiveliquefied natural gasLong-Range Transboundary Air PollutionMercury and Air Toxics Standards (USA)Multilateral environmental agreementMinistry of Environmental Protection (China)National Action Plan on Climate Change (India)National Coal Council (NCC)National Development and Reform Commission (China)National Emission CeilingsNational Environmental Protection Measures (Australia)National Emission Reduction Plannatural gas combined cycleNational Health and Medical Research CouncilNational Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (India)National Plan for Clean Air (Australia)National Pollutants Inventory (Australia)Nuclear Regulation Authority (Japan)Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPerform and Achieve Trade scheme (India)Power Development Plan (Thailand)plant load factorPerusahaan Listrik Negara (Indonesia)particulate matterPower Purchase Agreement (India)parts per millionPublic Private Partnership (Indonesia)Powder River Basin (USA)Renewable Energy SourcesRegional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (USA)Southern African Power PoolSelective catalytic reductionSolvent Emissions DirectiveUnited NationsUnited Nations Economic Commission for EuropeIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand6
UNEPUNFCCCUS EPAWCAWECWEOWIDUnited Nations Environment ProgrammeUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUnited States Environmental Protection Agency (USA)World Coal AssociationWorld Energy Council (UK)World energy outlook (IEA, France)Waste Incineration DirectiveIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand7
ContentsPreface3Abstract4Acronyms and abbreviations5Contents8List of Figures9List of Tables1011123IntroductionCoal and environmental regulations and agreements2.1 Global/multilateral agreements14162.2 Regional regulations/agreements212.3 Bilateral agreements2.4 National regulations3132Coal-fired power generation and coal demand3.1 International view3.2 Regional view5659622.1.12.1.2United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (COP 21)Cooperative agreements2.2.1European uropeNorth America17212262636674844The future of coal5Conclusions1036References1087Addendum (UNFCCC, 2015)114IEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand908
List of FiguresFigure 1 Global trade in thermal coal including major exporters and importers11Figure 2 Overview of the international environmental regime16Figure 3 Countries covered in the global climate legislation study19Figure 4 Targets of the German energy transition, ‘Energiewende’38Figure 5 Specific CO2 emission rates by country42Figure 6 Overall coal consumption by region and the share of coal within the total primaryenergy sources56Figure 7 Coal imports and exports by country of destination/origin57Figure 8 Cumulative projected expansion of hard coal export mining capacity, 2015-201963Figure 9 South African 2014 coal exports, by destination64Figure 10 Summary of the policy adjusted IRP plans for electricity generation mix in South Africa66Figure 11 Global vs Chinese coal consumption, billion tons (t)67Figure 12 China’s, to end 2012, and projected (2012-2040) installed capacity by fuel68Figure 13 India’s coal imports (2013)70Figure 14 Coal demand, domestic production and imports70Figure 15 Percentage demand for coal in varying sectors71Figure 16 Russian coal export by destination in 2014, %73Figure 17 Share of coal in electricity production for EU member states, 201275Figure 18 EU energy reserves in the form of hard coal and lignite (2012 data)75Figure 19 Levelised cost of electricity generation in the EU, 201276Figure 20 EU power plant capacity and output growth from 2000 to 2012 (building a second system)77Figure 21 German coal consumption and production 1991-201279Figure 22 Gross power generation by fuel in Germany, TWh (1990-201480Figure 23 German power generating installed capacity, GW (2014)80Figure 24 German electricity production, TWh (2014)81Figure 25 G7 coal expansion plans since 201082Figure 26 Characteristics of electric generation technologies87Figure 27 US electric power producer strategies and implications for coal87Figure 28 Projected US electric capacity additions and retirements (GW) for two cases, the EIA(AEO2015) reference case and the CPP Base Policy case89Figure 29 World population from the year 900 to 2014, millions90Figure 30 World population distribution by region (1800-2050)90Figure 31 Fossil fuels past, present and future share of primary energy, also by region92Figure 32 Incremental world primary energy demand by fuel, 2000-201093Figure 33 World energy consumption 1990-204098Figure 34 Per capita electricity consumption versus per capita income by key countries98Figure 35 Current and future demand for coal in the global primary energy mix99Figure 36 Non-OECD electricity generation by source (TWh, share)99Figure 37 Coal’s share by sector and inputs to power in ChinaIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand1009
List of TablesTable 1Top Coal exporters and importers12Table 2Countries with absolute and relative economy-wide emission reduction targets20Table 3Implementation timetable of the revised 2001 LCPD for existing plant24Table 4Revised 2001 LCPD emission limit values (ELVs) for existing plants25Table 5China, EU and USA coal-fired power plant standards for sulphur dioxide (SO2),3Nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM) and mercury (Hg), mg/m35Table 6Proposed emission limits for India’s thermal power plants under the Environment (Protection)Amendment Rules, 201541Table 7Minimum emission standards for combustion installations firing solid fuel (www.iea-coal.org)Table 8Minimum emission standards for carbonisation and coal gasification (combustion installations)(www.iea-coal.org)49Table 9Emission performance rates (adjusted output-weighted-average pounds of CO2 per net MWhfrom all affected fossil fuel-fired electric generating units)4951Table 10 Main producers, exporters and importers of hard coal in 201357Table 11 Domestic coal consumption in 201458Table 12 Percentage share of coal, in descending order, in the top 12 countries utilising coal for powergeneration throughout the world59Table 13 Top five electric-power generating companies in the USA86Table 14 Fuel structure of global electricity generation, 1971-201291
Introduction1 IntroductionCoal has historically been, and continues to be, a main fuel in the power-generating sector throughout theworld. In 2014, coal provided 30% of global primary energy requirements, 40% of the world’selectricity generation and 68% of steel production. Forecasts and projections indicate that coal willremain a major power generating fuel, albeit to a lesser extent, in the future. In Asia and North America,coal is a key fuel, which reflects the regions coal demand. Asia is the world’s largest consumer with a 63%share of total use and North America, mainly the USA, is the world’s second largest consumer with a 14%share of total use. The global trade in thermal coal including major exporters and importers is shown inFigure 1.Figure 1 Global trade in thermal coal including major exporters and importers (Accenture, 2013)In terms of total coal imports, steam and coking, in 2013/14 Asia held the top five positions (China, India,Japan, Korea (Republic) and Chinese Taipei) followed by Germany and the UK, while the main exporterswere Indonesia, Australia, Russia, USA, Colombia, South Africa and Canada (see Table 1). In Europe,Russia is a main exporter of natural gas, oil and coal into many European countries. The ongoing tensionIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand11
Introductionbetween Russia and Ukraine has raised concerns about security of supply in Europe, especially since theproduction rate of natural gas in some European countries is declining. As solutions to reduce importdependency, energy efficiency and renewable energy have become main areas of attention as well as abroader import basis. However, the latter focus is on the import of LNG not coal (WEC, 2015).Table 1Top Coal exporters and importers (IEA, 2015 and WEC, 2015)Top coal importers (2013E)Steam, MtCoking, MtTotal, Mt1. China2. India22918963502922393. Japan4. South Korea1379751341881315. Chinese Taipei6. Germany7. UK60473571066757411. Indonesia40824102. Australia3. Russia195133180223751554. USA5. Colombia6. South Africa31797657108880767. Canada43135Top coal exporters (2014)Population and economic growth are the two main drivers for increasing energy demand. There has beena dramatic growth in population in the last century, especially so in the last 2 decades. The continuinggrowth in world population today is mainly in developing countries and particularly in Africa, South Asia,Latin America and the Middle East. Among the developed countries, a relatively high rate of growth ofpopulation took place in North America in 1800-1900 but the current annual population growth rate inthe region is just under 1% (WPR, 2015). Rapid development of electricity production occurred in the lastcentury. Electricity allowed social and economic development throughout the world, particularly inindustrialised/more developed countries. More developed countries include all countries in Europe,North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. Less developed countries include all countries inAfrica, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, and the regions of Melanesia, Micronesia,and Polynesia. Electricity revolutionised industry, transport, construction and the municipal economy. Italso improved the standard of life dramatically in the industrialised world. The continuing high growth ofglobal production of electricity in the last three decades of the 20th century has however been extremelyuneven, per capita, in different parts of the world – high in the developed countries and less so indeveloping countries. It is worth noting that between 1990 and 2010, over 800 million individuals gainedaccess to electricity due to coal-fired power generation. The vast majority of those are in developingcountries. Demand for coal-fired power generation is expected to continue, especially in developingcountries, with a focus on improving the standard of life rather than environmental protection. However,in most countries, policymakers advocate and promote, and in some cases mandate, the deployment ofadvanced combustion technologies in new coal-fired electricity-generation plants and, improving theefficiency of existing ones. Trends in regulatory frameworks that aim to limit emissions and/or governIEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand12
Introductionfuel choice in power generation are developing and spreading globally. This review attempts to assesssuch trends and their effect on coal-fired power generation. Existing and future global/multilateral,bilateral and national regulatory requirements to control/reduce emissions to air, especially ofgreenhouse gases (GHGs) and their impact on coal demand are the focus of this report.Water policies and availability for the power sector were the topic of a recent report by IEA Clean CoalCentre (CCC) (see Carpenter, 2015). Management of coal combustion waste/residue was the subject of theIEA CCC review by Zhang (2014). IEA CCC has also published numerous reviews on coal-based powergeneration technology, emissions, legislation and impacts, the latest of which includes Nalbandian (2007)and Sloss (2009). These and many other publications, as well as a dedicated database on ‘emissionstandards for coal-fired power plants’, are available from the IEA CCC website www.iea-coal.org. Thisreview discusses only the most recent regulatory trends and their effect on coal-fired power generationand potential coal demand.IEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand13
Coal and environmental regulations and agreement2 Coal and environmental regulations and agreementsThere are two primary instruments and vehicles through which environmental law is developed,memorialised, and implemented. According to Lamotte (2014), these are the non-binding ‘soft law’regimes, which provide a mechanism based on collaboration and voluntary participation. Nonetheless,such soft laws may serve as a harbinger for hard laws. The other instrument is binding mechanisms thatmay be global, regional, or bilateral, and they may take the form of agreements, frameworks, or protocolsto frameworks or agreements. There are many technical differences among various binding mechanisms,discussed in detail by Lamotte (2014).Legislation is becoming increasingly more stringent to the point where, in some parts of the world; suchas the EU, power providers/utilities are required to either construct state-of-the-art, advanced powerplants or invest in retrofitting pollution control technologies in existing facilities. The investment inpollution control technology is necessary, if not unavoidable, to ensure the continued, reliable supply ofelectricity with a less detrimental environmental impact. The result has been a reduction in air pollutantemissions (SO2, NOx and particulate matter) in many regions throughout the world, achieved over the lastfew decades. However, the combustion of coal results in relatively high GHG emissions compared to otherfossil fuels, such as gas, and the technologies to deal with these emissions, remain at demonstration leveland are considered prohibitively costly. Visit www.iea-coal.org for detailed reviews on GHG controltechnologies and carbon capture and storage (CCS) developments and stat
IEA Clean Coal Centre – New regulatory trends: effect on coal-fired power plant and coal demand 4 . Abstract . This review presents the recent regulatory trends, practices and developments, in major coal producing and consuming countries, which are affecting and may influence future demand for coal and coal-fired power generation.
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