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Fluctuations in Exchange Rate and its Impact onMacroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana Shaheen AbstractThe present study was conducted to examine the extent anddirection of exchange rate volatility and its impact onmacroeconomic performance of Pakistan. It is implied thatexchange rate volatility has direct bearings on macroeconomicvariables and thus on macroeconomic performance. This studyalso investigates the effect of exchange rate (independentvariable) of Pak Rupee to US Dollar on selected three dependentvariables i.e. inflation rate, import and export balance ofPakistan. The annual observations from 2000-2010 areconsidered for analysis, which are collected from differentsecondary sources. A significant association between theexchange rate and inflation rate as well as annual imports isobserved. On the other hand no significant association isrecorded between the exchange rate, and annual exports.Overall, the results suggest that the explanatory variables anddependant variable are highly correlated and thus the policymakers in Pakistan should consider both the existence and thedegree of the exchange rate volatility and notice the likelyimpact of volatility on each macro-economic variable inimplementation of the trade policies, so that the external value ofour currency be stabilized.Keywords: Exchange rate, Inflation rate, Imports, Exports.IntroductionDepreciation of currency means, to officially reduce the value ofhome currency in relation to gold or the foreign currency. Usuallycountries commence depreciation to reduce the gap of deficitexternal balance, because economist considers currencydepreciation could actually be beneficial for the economy. Since aweaker currency will boost exports, which in turn will increaseemployment and this, as a result, will improve the economicgrowth. Dr. Farzana Shaheen, Assistant professor, Jinnah College for WomenUniversity of Peshawar. Email: [email protected]

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana ShaheenThe International Monetary Fund and the Central Bank sometimespropose the same on the grounds that it improves externalcompetitiveness, increases exports, reduces imports and thusimproves trade and current account balances. It is also argued thatdevaluation initially worsens but eventually improves balance ofpayments.Has Pakistan achieved these objectives? Have exportsincreased, and imports reduced? Has external payment situationimproved as a result of depreciation? The scenario of Pakistan isdifferent and unfortunately from past few years’ Pakistan economyis in threat as major sectors of the economy are showing negativegrowth. Although the exports were increased during FY11 butimports were also increased. According to the Federal Bureau ofStatistics (FBS) the overall imports during FY11 were 40.414billion as compared to 34.710 billion during FY10, which is anincrease of 16.43 per cent. Increase in imports is mainly due toimport of petroleum & its related products in the midst of fastdepreciating exchange rate. In other words, contrary to the theory,a negative relationship between devaluation and external balance isobserved.On the other hand, the exchange rate depreciation hasalone added Rs.1,125 billion in public debt. At present it amountsto 13 billion. The rise in public debt would increase interestpayment, reduce fiscal space for development spending and putenormous pressure on budget. Higher budget deficit would lead toeven more accumulation of public debt.Recently Pakistani rupee depreciated to an all-time low Rs106 against per dollar due to high demand for import payments.Depreciation of the rupee further inflates import bill as well asincreases domestic price level, thus reducing the purchasing powerof people and causing inflation in the country. It may be realizedthat for whatever reason our currency is depreciated, it results toweaken the economy as compared to the other countries. Further,excessive depreciation of the past has adversely affected our creditranking in the international market.Summarizing the above discussion it can be said thatdepreciation is not a long-term solution to cobble together theeconomy. Unless the Government revises its economic policiesand execution of plans, devaluation will not stabilize the externalvalue of our currency. We must give highest precedence to theconsolidation of our economy along with expansion.The Dialogue411Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana ShaheenReview of LiteratureThe topic of exchange rate has gained much more importance inPakistan since the floating exchange rate patterns has beenadopted. Recently the studies are conducted to find whetherchanges in exchange rate affect the macroeconomic variables ofany country or not. This article identifies any such relationshipbetween exchange rate volatility and some of the macroeconomicvariables like exports, imports and inflation in Pakistan.Theoretical relationship between exchange rate volatility andmacroeconomic variables of any country is described in manystudies, but empirical investigation shows no such consensus aboutit because of mixed pattern of results found in those studies.Aurangzaib et al. investigated the relationship amongeconomic performance, growth and exchange rate uncertainty inPakistan.1 Auggir et al. evaluated the growth effects of realexchange rate fluctuations and their volatility.2 Egert et al.analyzed the direct and indirect impact of exchange rate volatilityvia changes in exchange rate regimes on the export performance.3Lourenco analyzed the global picture of exchange rate regimes of33 advanced and emerging economics.4 Hussain et al. investigatedthe durability and performance of alternative exchange rateregimes of all IMF member countries.5 Avellan evaluated therelationship between parallel exchange rates.6 Hoffman comparedfixed exchange rate with floating exchange rate.7 Vuletin analyzedthe influence of exchange rate policies on fiscal performance,focusing on the difference between fixed & floating exchangerate.8 Zhang reviewed China’s foreign exchange reforms andanalyzed their impact on the balance of trade and inflation.9Larrain et al. put light on the question of which exchange ratepolicy is suitable for middle income countries.10 Kawai et al.discussed conceptual and empirical issues relevant to exchangerate policies.11 Bleany et al. used a model to explain thatinflationary expectations in developing countries may be abridgedif exchange rate of developing countries is pegged to exchange rateof developed countries.12 Frey investigated the impact of short runvolatility of exchange rates on the volume of exports.13Research MethodsThe present study was conducted among the exchange rate (Y)consider as dependent variable by taking the Pak rupee to USdollar on the selected three independent variables i.e., inflation rate(X1), import (X2), and export balance (X3).Secondary data was utilized to obtain the requiredThe Dialogue412Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana Shaheenobjectives. The data was collected through the secondary sources,various issues of Economic Survey of Pakistan and Quarterlyreports of State Bank of Pakistan were used, covering all theinformation needed for the study.In the given study, the response variable was considered asbinary depending whether the respondent is a yes or no. Theresponse variable takes the value 1 for yes and 0 otherwise. Inaddition, the following 3 variables/factors are considered asindependent variables affecting (or not) the response which are (i)(X1) (ii) (X2) (iii) (X3). All these variables were measured in theirrespective units (qualitatively or quantitatively) and thentransformed to binary variables according to the following criteria:X1 1 if yes and 0 otherwise, X2 1 if yes and 0 otherwise,and X3 1 if yes and 0 otherwise.Results and DiscussionsSimple counts and percentages were obtained to know thefrequency of each of the selected variables. In order to test theassociation between the exchange rate (1 or 0) and the selectedvariables, regression analysis was applied with 5% level ofprobability. In addition, some other statistical techniques were alsoapplied.Table-01: Exchange rate and Inflation rateUnstandardized rror(Constant) 7.233Pak-USD18.782 0.115 0.780Exchange 0.430RateTSig.-2.5973.7400.0290.005In the table values b0 is the intercept term, which gives the averageeffect on Y of all the independent variables excluded from themodel. The estimated regression co-efficient, b1 0.780 whichindicates that the inflation rate increases by 0.780 units for a unitincrease in exchange rates and vice versa. Similarly both theestimated values (b0 and b1) are significant at 5% level ofsignificance.The Dialogue413Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanTable-02: Co-efficient of na ShaheenStd. Errorof theEstimate3.570948DurbinWatson1.455The co-efficient of determination R2 0.608 shows that almost61% of variation in inflation rate is due to changes in the exchangerate of Pak USD.Table-03: Comparison through co-efficient of correlationInflation Rate ofModelPak-USD ExchangeRatePakistan0.870Pak-USDExchangeRate 1Pearson Correlation0.005Sig. (2-tailed)1111NInflation Rate of Pakistan 0.8701Pearson Correlation0.005Sig. (2-tailed)1111NThe correlation co-efficient, r 0.780 shows there is a highlypositive correlation between the two variables, i.e., Pak UDexchange rate and inflation rate of Pakistan. Correlation showshow the two variables vary together. Similarly, p-value 0.005shows that both the variables are highly significant at 5% and 1%level of confidence.Table-04: Hypothetical results through ANOVAModelSumofDfMean SquareFsquareRegression 3.13710Sig.0.005The above result shows that Pak-USD is significantly influencedby the inflation rate at 5% and 1% level of confidence.The Dialogue414Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana ShaheenTable-05: Some results through t-testThe p-value 0.000 shows that the variables are highly significant.Table-06: Results of co-efficient for the said modelThe values of b1 show that exchange rate affects inflation rate andannual imports positively while it affects annual exportsnegatively. An increase of 1 % in the exchange rate will cause anincrease of almost 70% in the inflation rates of Pakistan and viceversa. Moreover, an increase of 1% in the exchange rate will causean increase of 68% in the annual imports of Pakistan and viveversa. On the other hand, a 1% increase in the exchange rate willcause a decrease of almost 62% in the annual exports of Pakistan.Table-07: Results of R and R2The co-efficient of determination R2 0.614 shows that almost61% of the variation in inflation rate annual exports and annualimports is due to the variation in the exchange rate between PAKRupee and US dollar.The Dialogue415Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana ShaheenTable-08: Results through correlationsPearson correlation co-efficient shows that Pak-USD Exchangerate and inflation rate are highly correlated (0.760), Pak-USDExchange rate, imports and exports and moderately co-related.Moreover the p-values (0.005, 0.036, 0.025) shows that the threevariables are significant.Conclusions and RecommendationsThe present study aim to establish a relationship among the exchangerate volatility on the macro-economic variables, i.e., inflation rate,annual exports and imports of Pakistan, has been analyzed through theapplication of regression techniques. Based on the results, obtainedfrom the analysis of given secondary data, the following conclusion aredrawn:The regression shows as the value of Pak-Rupee against theUS dollar decreases, it has a positive impact on the exports of thecountry. This helps to temporarily boost up the exports of the country.While due to the decrease in the value of Pak-rupee, the importsbecome dearer and expensive for the country which adversely affectsthe balance of payment position of the country.In the history of Pakistan, there is only one occasion when therupee appreciated against US dollar, for the remaining years it isdevalued or depreciated against the US Dollar. This caused atemporary boost up of the exports because on the other hand, the priceThe Dialogue416Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana Shaheenlevel in the country is increased which takes away the temporarybenefits from the boost up of exports.It may be realized thus, that for whatever reason the currencyis devalued, it results in weakening of the economy as compared to theother countries. Moreover, foreign investors become more consciousfor making any investment in the country.Summarizing the above discussion, it can be said thatdepreciation or devaluation is not a long lasting approach to improvethe economy. The findings suggest that the explanatory variables anddependant variables are highly correlated and thus it is recommendedthat the policy makers in Pakistan should consider both the existenceand the degree of the exchange rate volatility and notice the likelyimpact of volatility on each macro-economic variable inimplementation of the trade policies, so that higher volumes of tradeand direct foreign investment may be attracted. Unless the governmentrevises its economic planning and execution of plans, no amount ofdevaluation or depreciation will stabilize the external value of ourcurrency.The Dialogue417Volume VIII Number 4

Fluctuations in Exchange Rateand its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance of PakistanFarzana ShaheenNotes & References1A. Aurangzeb, T. Stengos, A.U. Muhammad, “Short-Run and Long-RunEffects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Exports: A CaseStudy for Pakistan”, International Journal of Business and Economics,Vol. 4, No. 3, (2005): 209-222.2A. Aguirre, & C. Calderon, “Real exchange rate misalignments andeconomic performance” Working Paper No 315, (Central Bank of Chile,2005)3B. Egert, A. M. Zumaquero, “Exchange Rate Regimes, ForeignExchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and EasternEurope Just Another Blur Project?,” (Oesterr eichische National Bank,2005)4R. F. Lourenco, “Exchange Rate regimes, a Global Picture since theEmerging Market Crises in the MID 1990s.” Economic Bulletin,Economics and Research Department Banco de Protugal, (2004)5A. M. Husain, A. Mody & K.S. Rogoff, “Exchange Rate RegimeDurability and Performance in Developing Versus AdvancedEconomies,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 52:1, (2004): 3564.6L. M. Avellan, “Parallel exchange rates and economic performance indeveloping countries: is the medicine worse than the disease?,”University of Maryland, (Central Bank of Ecuador and ESPOL, 2003)7M. Hoffimann, “Fixed versus Flexible Rates: A Panel-VAR Analysis,”Research Paper, Department of International Economics, (University ofCologne, 2003)8G. J. Vuletin, “Exchange Rate Regimes and Fiscal Performance: DoFixed Exchange Rate regimes generate more Discipline than FlexibleOnes?” (National University of Laplatta, 2003)9Z. Zhang, “China’s Exchange Rate Reform and Its Impact on theBalance of Trade and Domestic Inflation,” Asian Profile, 25 (3), (2000):277-9210F. B. Larrain & A. Velasco, “Exchange Rate Policy in EmergingMarkets: The Case for Floating Exchange”, National Bureau of EconomicResearch, (Harvard University, 2001)11M. Kawai & S. Takagi, “Proposed Strategy for a Regional ExchangeRate Arrangement in Post-Crisis East Asia,” Economic ResearchDepartment, (Osaka University, 2000)12M. Bleaney & D. Fielding, “Exchange Rate Regimes, Inflation andOutput Volatility in Developing Countries,” Credit Research Paper No.99/4 Centre for Research in Economic Development and InternationalTrade, (University of Nattingham, 1999)13R. Frey, “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade –SomeGARCH Estimations Stress the Importance of Trade Diversification,”International Economics Department, (Rostock University, 1983)The Dialogue418Volume VIII Number 4

exchange rate fluctuations and their volatility.2 Egert et al. analyzed the direct and indirect impact of exchange rate volatility via changes in exchange rate regimes on the export performance.3 Lourenco analyzed the global picture of exchange rate regimes of 33 advanced and emerging economics.4 Hussain et al. investigated

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