Peace Science Society International

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Peace Science Society-International-The 51stNorth American Annual MeetingNovember 2-4, 2017Tempe, ArizonaHosted by Arizona State University

The Peace Science SocietyThe Peace Science Society (International) operates asan objective scientific organization without political,social, financial, or national bias. Its objectives are tofoster the exchange of ideas and promote studies onissues of peace and conflict utilizing tools, methods,and theoretical frameworks drawn from the socialand natural sciences, law, engineering, and other disciplines and professions. A primary concern of theSociety is the improvement of social science theory asit relates to world politics. Membership in the PeaceScience Society is open to all individuals.For more information, please visit our website at:

The Peace Science Society wishes to thank .The School of Politics and Global StudiesArizona State University . for hosting this year’s meeting.The Society also thanks the following volunteers from theArizona State University for helping us run the conference:Samuel GoldenbergPablo OrtegaManuel GutierrezAlan SimmonsWeining AiChirasree MukherjeeAnntiana Maral SabetiRichie RomeroNathan Tarr3

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Can Peacekeepers Stop the Killing?United Nations Peacekeepingand Civil WarRoom: MU 206 Copper(1:00—4:30 PM)OrganizersMegan ShannonLisa HultmanJacob KathmanParticipantsPaul DiehlJessica DiSalvatoreTimothy PassmoreHan DorussenAudrey Comstock4

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Designing Security Institutionsin Developing CountriesRoom: MU 208 ChrysocollaOrganizersAila MatanockMichaela MattesParticipantsMeredith BlankAlex BraithwaiteRisa BrooksErica DeBriunKristen HarknessKara Kingma NeuMax Margulies5

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Foreign Policy Insights:Text-as-Data MethodsRoom: MU 210 PlataOrganizersLeah WindsorParticipantsMichael ColaresiKevin GreeneRoseanne McManusSusan AllenBaris KesginRuoxi DuElena LabzinaClay WebbJoakim KreutzMihai Croicu6

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Formal Models of Internal ViolenceRoom: MU 225 YumaOrganizersEmily RitterParticipantsSarah HummelDanielle JungJenn LarsonMonika NalepaShawn RamirezDavid CarterStephen ChaudoinScott GatesJames HollyerScott TysonKristopher RamsayKaren AlbertOlga ChyzhJack HaslerAe sil Woo7

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Good, the Bad, and the Ugly:Data on Mediation in Civil WarsRoom: MU 223 YavapaiOrganizersElizabeth MenningaKrista WiegandParticipantsLindsay ReidEric KeelsPatrick ReganFaten GhosnKarl DeRouenDesiree NilssonLaurie Nathan8

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Using a Game Theory Software forTeaching and Peace Science ResearchRoom: MU 227 PinalOrganizersCatherine LangloisJean-Pierre LangloisParticipantsMarjori BreslawskiAndrew EnterlineTiberiu DraguRuoxi DuSongying FangKelly KaderaHenry PascoeJulianne PhillipsKristopher RamsayAnne SartoriScott WolfordGeorge YinRenato Corbetta9

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2War and the Internet: New Research onCyber and Communication TechnologiesRoom: MU 248 RinconOrganizersAnita GohdesNadiya KostyukParticipantsEric GartzkeJaclyn KerrNils WeidmannThomas ZeitzoffYonatan LupuTiberiu DraguZachary Steinert-ThrelkeldDanielle Gilbert10

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2What do we (want to) know aboutnetworks of resistance?Room: MU 238 ApacheOrganizersJessica Maves BraithwaiteCharles ButcherParticipantsBridget CogginsDavid CunninghamCassy DorffKristian Skrede GleditschReyko HuangJanet LewisPauline MooreJonathan PinckneyBabak RezaeeChes ThurberSirianne DahlumLuke AbbsAndrew Davis11

— Peace Science Society Workshops —Thursday, November 2Women, Conflict, and DataRoom: MU 229 Santa CruzOrganizersRebecca BestKyleanne HunterParticipantsReed WoodJaroslav TirRobert NagelJakana ThomasLindsay ReidDenise WalshLaura HuberAlan SimmonsLori Poloni-StaudingerAlexis Henshaw12


9:00 AMFriday, November 3Room: CloisterIn Memory of Will H. Moore10:00 AMPalm DChair: Andrew Owsiak10:00James Morrow and Kevin CopeNegotiating the ICC10:30Charles Boehmer, Rebecca Reid, Renato CorbettaNetworks of Hard International Law Based Organizations andHuman RightsPalm EChair: Zeev Maoz10:00Scott Tyson and Livio Di LonardoThe Art of Coercive Diplomacy10:30Raymond DaceyEvolution of Preference Orderings for the Deterrence GamePalm FChair: Lisa Hultman10:00Douglas LemkeThe Emergence and Survival of De Facto States10:30Therese AndersTerritorial Control in Civil Wars: Theory and Measurement UsingMachine LearningBreak 11:00 — 11:3014

Friday, November 311:30 AMPalm DChair: Michael G. Findley11:30Desirée NilssonIs there an End to Islamist Conflicts? Islamist Claims andRecurrence of Armed Conflicts, 1975-201512:00Michael GreigAccommodating Rebels: The Impact of Government Reputation,Concession-making, and the Occurrence of Future Challenges12:30Sarah PetersHow does the Type of Peace Accord Provision Affect Civil WarRecurrence?Palm EChair: Jacqueline DeMeritt11:30Krista Wiegand, Paul Hensel, Sara Mitchell, Andrew OwsiakIssue Linkage of Territorial and Identity Claims12:00Songying FangTerritorial Indivisibility and Domestic Preferences for DisputeResolution: Evidence from Japan12:30Molly Berkemeier and Matthew FuhrmannBroken Promises: Multilateralism, Collective Action Problems, andthe Reliability of Military AlliancesPalm FChair: Dennis Foster11:30Max MarguliesThe Politics of Military Reform: Explaining Changes in MilitaryRecruitment12:00Kyleanne Hunter and Rebecca BestGI Jane to Madam Secretary: Explaining the Role of Women in theMilitary in Promoting Women in Public Office12:30Caroline BrandtPeace Deals as Counterinsurgency: Explaining Variation inMilitary Power-SharingLunch 1:00 — 2:3015

Friday, November 32:30 PMPalm DChair: Brian Phillips2:30Page FortnaResort to Terror: State Dependence on Tourism and Rebels’ Use ofTerrorism in Civil War3:00Brian LaiDiffusion of Anti-Terrorist Laws: Transnational Groups,Institutions, and Allies3:30Carly WayneThe Strategic Psychology of Terrorism: The Micro-Foundations ofState Counter-terror Policies4:00Nazli Avdan and Gary UzonyiUnholy Ties: Government Atrocities and Terrorism by MilitiasPalm EChair: Paul Huth2:30Brandon J. KinneMaking Sense of the IGO-Conflict Relationship: A MultilevelNetwork Model of IGO Membership and Militarized Disputes3:00Yeon Kyung (Grace) ParkTo Back Down or Not: Exploring the Impact of Audience Costs3:30Jared Oestman and T. Clifton MorganDrive it Like You Stole It: Military Aid, Arms Purchases, andConflict Behavior4:00Julianne PhillipsThreat, Abandonment, and Autonomy: The Strategic Incentivesfor Nuclear ProliferationBreak 4:30 — 5:0016

Friday, November 32:30 PMPalm FChair: Burcu Savun2:30Aila MatanockConsidering Concessions: A Survey Experiment on the ColombianPeace Process3:00T. David Mason, Amalia Pulido, Jesse HamnerCaught in the Crossfire: Land Reform, Death Squad Violence, andElections in El Salvador3:30Henry Thomson and Elisabeth RosvoldElections, Regime Instability, and Urban Unrest, 1960-20144:00Marjorie Breslawski and David CunninghamThe International Correlates of Contentious ElectionsBreak 4:30 — 5:0017

Friday, November 35 :00PMPalm DChair: T. Clifton Morgan5:00Catherine Langlois and Jean-Pierre LangloisWar Can Be in the Signaling Effect: War and Bargaining withBilateral Uncertainty5:30Eric MinEndogenizing the Costs of Conflict: A Text-Based Application tothe Korean War6:00Yonatan Lupu and Scott WolfordSignaling Weakness, Using Force: International Negotiations andthe Repression-Dissent NexusPalm EChair: Patricia Sullivan5:00SeungJoon PaikTerritorial Loss and the Treatment of Prisoners of War: Evidencefrom the Korean War5:30Christopher MacaulayConflict Management and Ethnicity in Territorial Claims6:00David CarterGreat Power Intervention and the Activation of Latent TerritorialClaimsPalm FChair: Birol Yesilada5:00Jessica Di SalvatoreRadio for Peace: UN Broadcasting and Violence Against Civilians5:30Corinne BaraThe Impact of Peace Operations on Collective Violence in thePostwar Period6:00Susanna P. Campbell and Michael G. FindleyUnderstanding the Local Effect of UN Peace Operations: A QuasiExperimental Spatial Impact Evaluation in Burundi18

Saturday, November 48:30 AMPalm DChair: Scott Bennett8:30Austin DoctorUnwelcome Guests? Foreign Fighters and Anti-Civilian Violence inIntrastate Conflict9:00Shelby Lynn Hall and K. Chad ClayShamed and Exiled? INGOs, Human Rights Shaming, andLeader Survival9:30Mitchell RadtkeFriends in High Places: Ministerial Cronyism as a Coup-proofingStrategy10:00Jeff CarterLeaders, Interstate Conflict, and Spatial InterdependencePalm EChair: Emily Ritter8:30Idean Salehyan and Cullen HendrixWhen Does the Leviathan Work? State Responses to Civil Disorder9:00Michael ReeseDrone Strikes and Insurgent Retaliation:Evidence from Pakistan, 2008-20149:30Brian J. PhillipsRebel Responses to Indiscriminate and Selective Repression:Evidence from Argentina in the 1970s10:00David Siegel, Will H. Moore, Margaret Foster, Katie Webster,Elizabeth Carlson, So Jin Lee, Marco MorucciState Interventions and the Growth or Suppression of Anti-StateActions19

Palm FChair: Paul Poast8:30Matthew Fuhrmann and Steven SchaafAssessing the Predictive Power of Statistical Models ofInternational Conflict9:00Karen AlbertDying for Peace: The Consequences of Measuring Peace by LowBattle Deaths9:30Michael Joseph and Eric DunfordUsing Diplomatic Events to Measure State Intentions and ForeignPolicies10:00Michael Colaresi and Lora DiBlasiSPII: A New Dataset Measuring National Security Oversight inDemocraciesBreak 10:30—11:0020

Saturday, November 4 11:00 AMPalm DChair: Corinne Bara11:00Lucia BirdDiaspora Support in Interstate Conflict11:30Marisella RodriguezTurning Neighbors into Enemies: Mobilizing Efforts for StrategicSexual Violence during Ethnic Conflict12:00Efe TokdemirEffects of Transnational Identity and Domestic Conflict onAttitudes towards Foreign Actors: An Experimental Evidencefrom Turkey12:30Jonathan Hall, Eric Skoog, Dogukan Cansin KarakusIntersectionality, Altruism, and WarPalm EChair: Toby Rider11:00Samuel PlapingerInsurgent Effectiveness in Civil Wars:The Fedayeen in Jordan (1968-71)11:30Adam ScharpfDirty Skills: Guerrilla Wars and Military Training at the School ofthe Americas12:00Megan FarrellAffiliation among Political Violence Groups: A Costly Signal12:30Kathryn J. AlexanderChoose Your Words Faithfully: Religious Commitment, EliteRhetoric, and the Formation of Individual Foreign Policy Opinion21

Palm FChair: Jun Sudduth11:00Jasper KaplanClimate Shocks, Trade Dependence, and Unrest: Relationships between Climate Change and State Instability in a Network Context11:30Dennis Foster and Jonathan W. KellerInteractive Leadership Psychology and the Ebb and Flow ofInterstate Rivalries12:00Yanfang TianMiddle Class and Social Conflicts in China12:30Christopher Butler and Scott GatesCommunal Violence and Property RightsLunch 1:00 — 2:3022

Saturday, November 42:30 PMPalm DChair: Andrew Coe2:30Benjamin Fordham and Katja KleinbergThe Malady of Democratic States: Revisiting Isolationism3:00Robert Schub and Tyler JostProximity to War Costs and Attitudes toward the Use of Force3:30Tyson ChatagnierMilitary Combat and Attitudes Toward the Use of Force4:00Sam R. Bell, Olga Chyzh, Carla Martinez Machain,Mark David NiemanPlaying the Field: How Minor Powers Choose Among Major PowerBenefactorsPalm EChair: Steven Miller2:30Gabriella LloydMandating (In)Security? How UN Missions Endanger the CiviliansThey Intend to Protect3:00Dana HigginsSay When: Simultaneous Third Party Interventions in Conflict3:30Laura HuberBuying Women’s Rights: The Role of International Actors andConflict in Gender Reform4:00Johannes Karreth and Jaroslav TirThird Parties and Political Contestation in Domestic ArmedConflicts23

Palm FChair: Brian Pollins2:30Casey Crisman-CoxCivil Wars of Attrition: Bargaining and Reputation3:00Jessica SunUnfixed at the Root: The Strategic Manipulation of InsurgentRecruitment3:30Marina PavlovaFinancial Crises and Political Turnover in Autocracies4:00Jacek KuglerPower Transition Perspective: The Long ViewPoster Session DiscussantsWe would like to thank the following participants for serving asdiscussants for graduate student posters:Corinne BaraLisa HultmanNavin BapatBenjamin JonesK. Chad ClayBrandon KinneCasey Crisman-CoxAila MatanockKristian GleditschSara MitchellCullen Hendrix24

Saturday, November 44:45-6:00PMPoster SessionLocation: Ballroom Foyer & XavierAndrew J. EnterlineOur Man in Havana? Foreign-influenced Leadership Changes & InterstateRelationsAngela D. Nichols and Michael WidmeierWomen's Participation in Rebel Groups and Post-Conflict Justice OnsetBenjamin T. JonesPreventing Intervention? The Effect of Public Diplomacy Campaigns DuringCivil WarsGina MillerDomestic Institutions, Backfire, and Repression of Nonviolent DissentJessica Maves Braithwaite and Huan ZhangDynamics of Repression in Developmental StatesJonathan MarkowitzIn the Interest of Power: Exploring Patterns of Geopolitical CompetitionMichael KochHappiness is a Warm Nuke? Nuclear Weapons, Defense Spending, Nationalism and Life SatisfactionRoseanne McManusTesting the Madman Theory: Do Leaders Perceived as Mentally Unstable DoBetter in Conflict Bargaining?Sara Polo and Julian WucherpfennigRefugees and the Spread of Terrorism: New Data and AnalysesMark Ramirez and Reed WoodA principal-agent model of public support for public-private military partnershipsMenevis CilizogluSustaining Economic Peace: When Do Sanctions Snap Back?25

Hiroto SawadaA Model of Frozen Conflict: A Game-theoretic ApproachJeremy BerkowitzShirking in Terror: Agency Loss and Control Mechanisms in State Sponsorship of TerrorismJ Andres GannonSignaling and Leading Indicators of ConflictKaitlyn M. WebsterUnifying Civil War Onset and Escalation: A Strategic ApproachMargaret FosterSurvival or Self: The Dilemma of Rebel-Community IntegrationMelissa MartinezMilitary and Police Visibility after Naming and Shaming Violent Non-StateOrganizationsPaul Bezerra, Erik Gartzke, Alex BraithwaiteHow Location Conditions Where States FightSojeong LeeResource Dependence, Energy Price, and Interstate ConflictSteven McDowellDynamics of Settlement Failure in Interstate Territorial and MaritimeDisputesTiffany S. ChuThe Determinants of Refugee RepatriationWilliam WagstaffAn Alternative Peacekeeping Security Dividend: Minimizing Conflict Recurrence through Gains in State PowerAlexander AntonyNetwork Structures and the Rise of Zones of PeaceAhra WuBayesian Multiple Equations Model of Alliance Choices and InterstateConflictsChristina SciabarraWhat Kind of Peace? Civil Conflict Termination, Peacebuilding Strategies,and the Post-Civil Conflict Environment26

Saturday, October 226:15 — 7:30— Palm D, E, F —Business MeetingGlenn PalmerExecutive DirectorPatrick JamesPresidentPresidential Address“What Do We Know About Crisis, Escalation andWar? An Assessment of theInternational Crisis Behavior Project”7:30 – 9:30— 2nd F Poolside Terrace —Reception27

Future ConferencesPeace Science Society (International)Fifty-second North American Meeting, 2018The 2018 Peace Science Society annual meeting will be hosted by Michael G. Findley of The University of Texas at Austinand will be held in Austin, TX from 9-10 November, 2018.More information will be available as the meeting approaches.28

Pacific Peace Science ConferenceThe 3rd Pacific International Politics Conference (PIPC) will be heldat University of Hong Kong in Hong Kong in early July 2018. Proposalsaddressing any aspect of peace and conflict research will be welcome.Papers focused on the improvement of social science theory as it relates to international relations are encouraged, particularly but notexclusively quantitative research. Especially encouraged are papersdealing with conflict and peace in the Asia-Pacific region, and/or byresearchers based in the region. More information will be available asthe conference approaches.Network of European Peace ScientistsThe 2018 Jan Tinbergen Network of European Peace Scientists(NEPS) meeting will be held on June 18-20, 2018 at the University ofVerona in Verona, Italy. The deadline for submission is January 31,2018.NEPS is an international association for the advancement of peaceresearch and related studies in Europe. The principle criterion of eligibility for membership in NEPS is a mature and deep interest in thefield of Peace Research. A member of NEPS receives the emails andthe newsletters of the network. Membership is 50 for basic membership and 25 for students. If you would like to become a member,send an email to the NEPS administrator Raul Caruso For more information, please visit:ww.europeanpeacescientists.orgEurasian Peace Science ConferenceThe 7th Eurasian Peace Science Conference is tentatively scheduledto be held January 20-21, 2018, at Ozyegin University in Istanbul, Turkey. The Conference's goals are to broaden cooperation among Eurasian and Middle Eastern peace science scholars, encourage interaction with the worldwide peace science community, and bring together research on conflict and peace-related topics from throughout theworld.29

AwardsStuart A. Bremer Travel Awardfor the Best Graduate Student PaperThe Stuart A. Bremer Travel Award is presented to the author(s) ofthe best graduate student paper delivered at each year’s Peace Science Society meeting. Papers eligible for consideration include thoseassociated with poster presentations made at the meeting as well asthose presented at the meeting’s regular sessions. Co-authored papers may be considered for the award if all of the authors are graduate students at the time of the meeting.The author(s) of the winning paper receives travel support of 2000to present the paper at the 2018 meeting of the Network of EuropeanPeace Scientists in Verona, Italy. The winner will be selected on thebasis of the paper’s potential scientific significance and its contribution to the study of peace science. Nomination must be made by oneof the authors of the paper.For consideration, papers must be sent electronically (and preferablyas a PDF file) to Glenn Palmer ( by December 1,2017. The winning paper will be announced in January, 2018.Walter Isard Awardfor the Best Dissertation in Peace ScienceThe Walter Isard Award for the Best Dissertation in Peace Sciencehonors outstanding contributions to the scientific knowledge of peaceand conflict. Nominations for the 2018 award—open to dissertationsdefended between April 1, 2016 and March 31, 2018—are now beingaccepted. Competition is open to students of any nationality who successfully defend a doctoral dissertation on the subject of peace science, conflict behavior, international relations, or a related topic. Anymember of the individual’s dissertation committee may nominate thedissertation for consideration for the award, which carries a prize of 2000. Please send nominations to the Executive Director by email

Award Winners2017 Founders’ Medal WinnerThe Peace Science Society’s Founders' Medal is an award intendedto recognize an individual who has made significant and distinguished life-long scientific contributions to peace science.Nils Petter GleditschPeace Research Institute Oslo2016 Glenn Palmer Prizefor the Best Article published inConflict Management and Peace Science (CMPS)“United Nations peacekeeping dynamics andthe duration of post-civil conflict peace”Lisa HultmanUppsala UniversityJacob KathmanSUNY BuffaloMegan ShannonUniversity of Colorado, Boulder31

Award Winners2016 Stuart A. BremerTravel Award WinnerMatthew NanesUniversity of California San Diego“Police Integration and Support for AntiGovernment Violence in Divided Socie

Friday, November 3 5:00PM Palm D Chair: T. Clifton Morgan 5:00 Catherine Langlois and Jean-Pierre Langlois War Can Be in the Signaling Effect: War and Bargaining with Bilateral Uncertainty 5:30 Eric Min Endogenizing the Costs of Conflict: A Text-Based Application to the Korean War 6:00 Yonatan Lupu and Scott Wolford

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