Earthquake Early Warning System Notifications: Leveraging .
Earthquake Early WarningSystem Notifications:Leveraging the Power of theCommercial Cellular NetworkPanelists:Mark JohnsonBranch Chief, Earthquake and Tsunami Program, CalOESBrian DalyDirector, Core Network & Government/Regulatory Standards, AT&TFarrokh KhatibiDirector of Engineering, QualcommModerator:Steve BarclayDirector, Global Standards Development, ATIS
Agenda California Earthquake Early Warning System Mark Johnson, California Governor’s Office of EmergencyServices ATIS Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning Brian Daly, AT&T Earthquake Early Warning System: Technical Analysis Farrokh Khatibi, Qualcomm Conclusions and Next Steps Brian Daly, AT&T Questions & Answers Steve Barclay, ATISEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 20112
CaliforniaEarthquake Early WarningSystem(CEEWS)MARK R. JOHNSONBranch ChiefEarthquake and Tsunami ProgramGovernor's Office of Emergency Services3
BackgroundSB135 (Padilla)Government Code Section 8587.8Our Task Develop a comprehensive statewide earthquake earlywarning system in California through a public privatepartnership Identify funding sources by January 1, 2016 Must not specify the General Fund as a funding source Approved by Governor Brown September 24, 20134
Current LegislationSB494 (Hill)As of July 14, 2015The bill would: Create the California Earthquake Safety Fund Require appropriated funding to be used for:– Seismic safety– Earthquake-related programs– Earthquake early warning Authorize the fund to accept external funds (federal,local, bond funds and private sources)5
What isEarthquake EarlyWarning?seismogramP-wave fast not damagingS-wave slow damaging
GoalToday:Goal:ShakeMap in 5-10 minutesProvide advance notificationtens of seconds before shaking LocationMagnitudeGround shaking People move to safe zonesSlow and stop trains (BART, Metrolink)Isolate hazards (equipment, chemicals)7
Where is Early Warning GreeceIndiaSystems tem8
General Benefits Supports hazard mitigation Promotes safer environments Investments can be cost effective Could result in lower insurance costs Individual efforts can contribute to a statewidesystem9
Examples of Specific Benefits General Public: Citizens, including school children, might have time to drop,cover, and hold on. Motorists: Motorists could be afforded a few seconds to safely stop vehicles.Businesses: Employees and customers can take actions to protect themselves.Construction: Construction workers could move to safer locations.Medical: Surgeons, dentists, and others could stop delicate procedures.Elevators: Could be programmed to stop and open doors at the nearest floor inorder to prevent occupants from being stranded. Fire Stations: Doors could open before being damaged, delaying emergencyresponse. Industry: Production lines could be shut to reduce damage. Sensitive equipmentcould be placed in a safe mode. Chemicals and other hazardous materials could besecured. Utilities: Electric generation facilities could prepare for strong shaking andprotect the grid. Gas and water main controls can be automated. Transportation: Trains could be slowed or stopped to avoid derailing. Inboundaircraft could be automatically advised to divert to other airports.10
LimitationsEarly Warning will be challenging in California Variables: Many faults and infrequent large events. Blind Zones: Locations of limited sensor coverage. Missed Events: Due to no receipt of data. False Alarms: Negative reporting. Very Large Earthquakes: ( M8) Ruptures over aperiod of minutes rather than seconds. Early warningsystems must send out alarms quickly, before theearthquake has fully ruptured.11
Challenges Funding Governance Authority for program administration Coverage with enhanced seismic sensors Coordination of multiple implementation plans Ensuring Reliable reporting Sustainment of operation and maintenance Public Education campaign12
Project ScopeOutreachHow Managed& MaintainedPerformanceRequirementsFeatures andFunctions 13
CEEWS Steering Committee14
Build Upon Existing SystemCalifornia Integrated Seismic Network Within Seconds:Provides detection, magnitude,depth, location and time Within 15-30 Minutes:Provides worldwide earthquakecoverage from global partners15
Build Upon ShakeAlert16
ShakeAlert Prototype Pops up whenalert is received Calculates anddisplays: Countdown of remainingtime until shaking starts Expected local shakingintensity at user site Stores alerts forreplay17
System sorNotification(Output)Output Applications Internet: Via ShakeAlert and other applications Public Alert System: Message distributed to radio, television, EAS/IPAWS receivers Wireless Telecommunications: Message distributed to smart phone applications Data Distribution: To direct users and redistribution services18
Outreach and Education19
Cost Factors1. Initial construction costs2. New or upgraded seismic stations & GPS stations3. Significant field telemetry upgrades4. Annual operation and maintenance5. Staffing for:– Implementation and testing– Operation and user outreach– Continued research and development20
Development Phases12342014201520162016 21
Implementation StrategyCreateChallengeClarifyCommunicateCascade22
Implementation luateMaintain23
Next Steps Schedule workshops to develop the CEEWSImplementation Strategy1.CISN Partners2.Telecommunications (Private Sector, ATIS, CPUC,CUEA, CISN Partners)3.Utilities (Private Sector, CPUC, CUEA, CISN Partners)4.Rail Transportation (HSR, BART, Metrolink,Commercial Carriers, CISN Partners)5.Other Sectors24
For more information:MARK R. JOHNSONBranch ChiefEarthquake and Tsunami ProgramGovernor's Office of Emergency Servicesmark.johnson@caloes.ca.gov“Advance notification occurs with CEEWS”25
ATIS Feasibility Studyfor Earthquake EarlyWarningBrian DalyDirector, Core Network &Government/Regulatory StandardsAT&T
Introduction & Definitions ATIS completed a feasibility study to evaluate techniques todistribute Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) notifications to thegeneral public through cell phones via the cellular network asa way to complement the California Integrated SeismicNetwork (CISN) EEW Notification is the notification broadcast by the cellularnetwork to cell phones in a specified geographic areafollowing receipt of an indication from an Earthquake WarningCenter that an EEW Notification should be broadcast An EEW Notification contains limited information Indication of imminent danger using a standard display of a shortearthquake warning message which is pre-configured in the cellphoneEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201127
Earthquake Early Warning Principles Objective: Rapidly detect theinitiation of anearthquake Estimate the level ofground shaking to beexpected Issue a warning beforesignificant groundshaking beginsP-wave 3.5 mi/sec (felt waves)S-wave 2.0 mi/sec (damaging waves)EEW information is highly uncertain andprovides only a limited amount of warning timeEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201128
Earthquake Early Warning Principles Earthquake early warning ispossible only when notificationscan be sent throughcommunication systems ahead ofthe seismic wavesShaking can take some secondsto minutes to travel from wherethe earthquake occurred to thealert areaThe farther a location is from theepicenter, the greater thepossible amount of warning timeTo maximize warning time, thesystem must minimize delays indata processing, communication,and delivery of earthquake earlywarningsEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201129
Basic Earthquake Early Warning System Model Sensor Network A network of sensors that are densely spacedand close to faults Sensors currently operated by the West CoastANSS seismic networks are not sufficientlydense in all areas to accomplish EEW withoutunacceptable delays Automated Decision Making Framework Quick and robust telecommunication fromsensors to the Earthquake Warning Center Computer algorithms to quickly estimate anearthquake’s location, magnitude, and faultrupture length, and to map resulting intensity Dissemination Channel Quick and reliable mass notifications Earthquake early warning is possible onlywhen EEW notifications can be sent throughcommunication systems ahead of the seismicwaves Recipient End users educated what specific actions totake upon receipt of the alertsEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201130
Assumptions EEW notification dissemination will bestandardized for 4G LTE networks and received bynew EEW-enabled cell phones with a valid cellularsubscription Existing cell phones will not be capable of receivingEEW notifications Design and capabilities of 2G and 3G wirelessnetworks do not provide the functionality required tosupport the dissemination of earthquake earlynotification message within the required short timeinterval Data and message formats will be standardizedthroughout the system Especially the interface and protocol between theAutomated Decision Making Framework/EarthquakeAlert Center(s) and the cellular network infrastructure Because of the time-sensitive nature of EEWnotifications, EEW-enabled cell phones will receivethis notification as quickly as technically feasible Given the nature of wireless networks and radiopropagation, there is no guarantee that a cell phone willreceive the EEW notification in a timely manner, and insome cases may not receive the EEW notification at allEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201131
Assumptions (continued) It is assumed the earthquake earlywarning broadcast will typically occurwithin 20 seconds after the EEWnotification from the Earthquake AlertCenter is received by the cellularnetwork In order to meet these time-sensitiverequirements, the proposed solutionassumes the re-use of existingcapabilities on the LTE broadcastchannel EEW notification area is assumed tobe a circle specified by the estimatedsurface location of the epicenter andan associated radius where the EEWnotification should be broadcastEEW Notification AreaRadiusEpicenter“Blind Zone” Cellular networks will make the bestapproximation to map the EEWnotification area to the associatedset of cell sites which are tobroadcast the EEW notificationEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201132
Earthquake EarlyWarning System:Technical AnalysisFarrokh KhatibiDirector of EngineeringQualcomm
What is Cell Broadcast?Point-to-Point (PtP) CommunicationEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 2011Cell Broadcast34
Why not use PtP Communication forEEWS? PtP techniques (e.g., SMS, Over-the-Top (OTT)Smartphone Apps) all share a number of major issuesthat make them unacceptable for EEWS: They are not designed for critical real-time authority-tocitizen emergency alerting. They can experience significant delivery delays whenattempting to deliver messages to a large number ofrecipients in a short period of time. Messages are addressed to phone numbers and not tousers within a specific alert area.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201135
Why not use PtP Communication? (cont.) SMS does not have security protections and can beeasily spoofed by individuals who wish to cause publicdisruption due to false earthquake alert messages. Smartphone subscribers must have a data servicessubscription with their wireless operator in order for thesmartphone apps to receive alert notifications via thewireless operator’s cellular network. Many more issues detailed in the feasibility study.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201136
What is Geo-Targeting?The Commercial Mobile Service Provider (CMSP) canbroadcast to an alert area indicated by a polygon or a circle. Red polygon/circle is the alert area. Yellow cell sites are those providing coverage area for that alert.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201137
Proposed Earthquake Early WarningSystem (EEWS)Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201138
Why not use Wireless Emergency Alerts(WEA) System?Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201139
Why not use Wireless Emergency Alerts(WEA) System? (cont.) While WEA is designed to provide imminent threat alerts,it is neither designed for nor can be modified to handletime-sensitive alerts. WEA is appropriate for less-time sensitive alertsproviding authorized alerting authorities a means toprovide information to citizens, for example in theaftermath of an earthquake.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201140
Earthquake Early WarningAround the WorldSource:Earthquake Early Warning Around the World available at:http://seismo.berkeley.edu/research/early warning.htmlEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201141
Japan's Earthquake and TsunamiWarning Service (ETWS)At the time of this feasibility study, only Japan's EEW (knownas ETWS) has an integrated capability to broadcast EEWnotifications by cellular networks. Primary Notification contains an indication of imminent danger. Secondary Notification contains more detailed data in text format.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201142
Conclusions and NextStepsBrian DalyDirector, Core Network &Government/Regulatory StandardsAT&T
Conclusions ATIS determined that a cellular wireless broadcast EEWnotification is a viable concept designed within theconstraints and limitations of the cellular wirelessnetworks. The ATIS study describes a proposed architecture for theEEW system for the distribution of time sensitive EEWnotifications using capabilities in the LTE broadcastchannel. Broadcast has the potential to reach millions of users inseconds to minutes in an inherently geo-targeted fashion,whereas trying to reach the same number of users viatraditional SMS or push data services (“apps”) wouldswamp the network, slowing the delivery of EEWnotifications to a crawl.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201144
Next Steps – Standards Upon agreement to proceed into the standardization phase by allstakeholders, new ATIS standards are needed to specify all therelevant interfaces and protocols for an end-to-end system. Starting from the earthquake alert center all the way to broadcast tothe cell phone that will notify the users of an imminent earthquake. ATIS will standardize cellular network aspects of system securityand engineering, alert messages and distribution, and overallsystem performance for the EEWS. ATIS will collaborate in the development of standards for themaximum allowable telemetry latency and minimum quality ofservice for data sources so an end-to-end latency budget can bedetermined, as well as define the end-user perspective for EEWS. EEW standards for the U.S. will also be brought into the global3GPP Public Warning System standards for global consistency andto facilitate EEW notifications for international roamers.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201145
Next Steps – Timelines EEWS solution proposed by ATIS will take 3-4 years to developand deploy, starting with developing the new ATIS standards,updating cellular operators’ networks, designing new cell phonesthat can receive EEW notifications, educating the public on the newservice, begin introducing new cell phones that support EEWalerting, and deploying the interfaces to the earthquake alert center. Close collaboration between USGS, CISN, ATIS, cellular networkoperators, and other relevant parties will be required to ensure asuccessful and timely standardization, planning, development,testing, and deployment of an EEW system. This duration starts once the deployment plan and budget for thesensor network and automated decision making framework of theEEW system has been approved. It will be 5-7 years before a substantial number of cellular networkusers (e.g., 25%) will have EEW capabilities in their devices. Global 3GPP standards impacts may increase the timeline to alignwith global standard release schedules.Earthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201146
How to Download the Feasibility StudyATIS Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning Systemis available y.pdfEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201147
Thank you for attendingEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsWebinarAll registered attendees will receive a follow upemail containing links to a recording and theslides from this presentation.For information on upcoming ATIS events, visitwww.atis.org/newsandevents/webinarsEarthquake Early Warning System NotificationsATIS Board of Directors’ MeetingTuesday,August 25, 2015October20, 201149
Earthquake Early Warning System Notifications. Tuesday, August 25, 2015 . Earthquake Early Warning Principles . 28 Objective: Rapidly detect the initiation of an earthquake Estimate the level of ground shaking to be expected Issue a warning before significant ground shaking begins . EEW information is highly uncertain and
Earthquake Early Warning Systems: An Investment that Pays off in Seconds I n October 2007, Japan unveiled a national earthquake early warning system tasked with providing the general public with a few seconds of warning before the onset of strong earthquake ground shaking. This article defines earthquake early warning systems and describes
What is Earthquake Early Warning Not earthquake prediction Sensors detect the fast moving P-waves of an earthquake. The sensor data is sent to an earthquake alert center which uses an algorithm to predict magnitude and intensity. Alerts are then distributed to the public. This process takes seconds.
This earthquake was as big as:This earthquake was as big as: 500 Hiroshima bombs Half the eruption of Mt. St. Helens 11 Cape Mendocino earthquakes 1992 CAPE MENDOCINO RUPTURE 2004 Indonesian earthquake 1906 earthquake 1906 earthquake 2004 Indonesia How big was the 1906 Earthquake?
Earthquake early warning systems do not predict earthquakes before they happen. Instead, they rely on seismic sensors to detect shaking and alert people. Since earthquake waves start at the source and spread out, you can place seismic sensors close to the earthquake source. They can beam their warning signal at the speed of light to surrounding .
Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning System Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions Approved July 2015 Abstract This feasibility study evaluates the feasibility of the commercial LTE cellular networks in supporting public earthquake notifications as part of the proposed California Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS).
Key words: Earthquake early warning, smartphone seismic networks, earthquake detection, earthquake alerts. 1. Introduction Seismology is an observational science that has always been limited by our ability to deploy sensing networks to study earthquake processes and the structure of the Earth. Earthquakes continue to have a
How will the earthquake early warning system be managed? In September 2016, Governor Jerry Brown signed Senate Bill 438 (Hill) into law. This bill established the California Earthquake Early Warning (CEEWS) Program and a CEEWS Advisory Board within the California Governor’sOffice of EmergencyServices.
Swing trading is not intraday day trading, moving quickly in and out. It does not involve taking fast-paced breakout trades where you are looking for quick wins. Swing trading is about profiting from the next swing in the market higher or lower. This can take time to play out whether on the smaller or higher time frames. Yes, sometimes this will happen quite fast. If you want a strategy where .
