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As a leading technology and solutions development organization, the Alliance for Telecommunications IndustrySolutions (ATIS) brings together the top global ICT companies to advance the industry’s most pressing businesspriorities. ATIS’ nearly 200 member companies are currently working to address the All-IP transition, networkfunctions virtualization, big data analytics, cloud services, device solutions, emergency services, M2M, cyber security,network evolution, quality of service, billing support, operations, and much more. These priorities follow a fast-trackdevelopment lifecycle — from design and innovation through standards, specifications, requirements, business usecases, software toolkits, open source solutions, and interoperability testing.ATIS is accredited by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI). The organization is the North AmericanOrganizational Partner for the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), a founding Partner of the oneM2M globalinitiative, a member of and major U.S. contributor to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), as well as amember of the Inter-American Telecommunication Commission (CITEL). For more information, visit of Disclaimer & Limitation of LiabilityThe information provided in this document is directed solely to professionals who have the appropriate degree of experience to understand and interpretits contents in accordance with generally accepted engineering or other professional standards and applicable regulations. No recommendation as toproducts or vendors is made or should be implied.NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY IS MADE THAT THE INFORMATION IS TECHNICALLY ACCURATE OR SUFFICIENT OR CONFORMSTO ANY STATUTE, GOVERNMENTAL RULE OR REGULATION, AND FURTHER, NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY IS MADEOFMERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR AGAINST INFRINGEMENT OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTYRIGHTS. ATIS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE, BEYOND THE AMOUNT OF ANY SUM RECEIVED IN PAYMENT BY ATIS FOR THIS DOCUMENT, AND INNO EVENT SHALL ATIS BE LIABLE FOR LOST PROFITS OR OTHER INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES. ATIS EXPRESSLYADVISES THAT ANY AND ALL USE OF OR RELIANCE UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS AT THE RISK OF THEUSER.NOTE - The user’s attention is called to the possibility that compliance with this standard may require use of an invention covered by patent rights.By publication of this standard, no position is taken with respect to whether use of an invention covered by patent rights will be required, and if anysuch use is required no position is taken regarding the validity of this claim or any patent rights in connection therewith. Please refer to[] to determine if any statement has been filed by a patent holder indicating a willingness to grant a licenseeither without compensation or on reasonable and non-discriminatory terms and conditions to applicants desiring to obtain a license.ATIS-0700020, Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning SystemIs an American National Standard developed by the Systems & Networks (SN) Subcommittee under the ATIS WirelessTechnologies and Systems Committee (WTSC).Published byAlliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions1200 G Street, NW, Suite 500Washington, DC 20005Copyright 2015 by Alliance for Telecommunications Industry SolutionsAll rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, in an electronic retrieval system or otherwise, without the prior written permission of thepublisher. For information contact ATIS at 202.628.6380. ATIS is online at .

ATIS-0700020ATIS Feasibility Study onFeasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning SystemAlliance for Telecommunications Industry SolutionsApproved July 2015AbstractThis feasibility study evaluates the feasibility of the commercial LTE cellular networks in supporting public earthquakenotifications as part of the proposed California Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS). Although this feasibility study isinitially targeted to California, it is applicable to other earthquake warning systems that may be deployed anywhere in theUnited States and its territories.

ATIS-0700020ForewordThe Alliance for Telecommunication Industry Solutions (ATIS) serves the public through improved understanding betweencarriers, customers, and manufacturers. The Wireless Technologies and Systems Committee develops and recommendsstandards and technical reports related to wireless and/or mobile services and systems, including service descriptions andwireless technologies. WTSC develops and recommends positions on related subjects under consideration in other NorthAmerican, regional, and international standards bodies. WTSC coordinates and develops standards and technical reportsprimarily relevant to wireless/mobile telecommunications networks in the U.S. and reviews and prepares contributions on suchmatters for submission to the appropriate U.S. preparatory body for consideration as ITU contributions or for submission toother domestic and regional standards organizations. WTSC will maintain liaison with other ATIS Committees as well asexternal fora as appropriate. WTSC will coordinate closely with other standards developing organizations (e.g., TIA, IEEE,ETSI, etc.) on wireless issues to ensure that the work programs are complementary.The mandatory requirements are designated by the word SHALL and recommendations by the word SHOULD. Where both amandatory requirement and a recommendation are specified for the same criterion, the recommendation represents a goalcurrently identifiable as having distinct compatibility or performance advantages. The word MAY denotes an optionalcapability that could augment the document. The document is fully functional without the incorporation of this optionalcapability.Suggestions for improvement of this document are welcome. They should be sent to the Alliance for TelecommunicationsIndustry Solutions, WTSC, 1200 G Street NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20005.At the time of consensus on this document, WTSC, which was responsible for its development, had the following leadership:WTSC Chair: Mark Younge, T-MobileWTSC Vice Chair: Don Zelmer, AT&TWTSC SN Chair: Peter Musgrove, AT&TWTSC SN Vice Chair: Greg Schumacher, SprintThe Systems & Networks (SN) Subcommittee was responsible for the development of this document.ii

ATIS-0700020Table of ContentsExecutive Summary . 11Scope, Purpose, & Application . . 3Purpose . 3Application . 3References . 32.12.23Normative References . 3Informative References . 4Definitions, Acronyms, & Abbreviations . 53.13.2Definitions. 5Acronyms & Abbreviations . 54Earthquake Early Warning Principles . 75Survey of Global Earthquake Warning Solutions . 105.15.26EEW Systems in other Regions . 10Japan ETWS . 11ATIS Understanding & Assumptions of EEWS . 126.16.27Basic EEW System Service Model . 12Assumptions . 13ATIS Recommended Overall End-to-End Architecture . 157.17.2Proposed Architecture for Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) . 15Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) . 158ATIS Recommended Solution . 169Technologies Not Feasible for EEWS . Message Service (SMS) . 18OTT Smartphone Apps . 19IPAWS/EAS/WEA . 19Mass Notification Auto Dialer Systems . 20Legacy Cellular Networks . 2010Timelines. 2111Conclusions & Recommendations . 21Annex A: Overview of 3GPP ETWS Functionality . 24Annex B: Selected Bibliography on Japan ETWS . 28Annex C: California EEWS Standards. 29Annex D: Parking Lot of Open Issues . 30iii

ATIS-0700020Table of FiguresFigure 4.1 – Earthquake P-Wave and S-Wave [Ref 113]. 7Figure 4.2 – Warning Time versus Distance to Earthquake Epicenter . 8Figure 4.3 – Sensing Shakes [Ref 118] . 9Figure 5.1 – Earthquake Early Warning Around the World [Ref 117] . 10Figure 5.2 – Japanese Earthquake Warning Flow . 11Figure 5.3 – Japanese Earthquake Early Warning System Advance Announcement . 12Figure 7.1 –Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) . 15Figure 7.2 – Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) System . 16Figure 8.1 – Earthquake Early Warning Notification . 17Figure A.1 – PWS Architecture. 24Figure A.2 – ETWS Architecture . 24Figure A.3 – UMTS ETWS Message Flow . 25Figure A.4 – LTE ETWS Message Flow . 26Figure A.5 – NTT DoCoMo Broadcast. 27iv

FFEASIBILITYY STUDYAATIS-07000200FFeasibility StudySon –FFeasibillity Studdy for Eaarthquaake Earlly Warnning SysstemEExecutivve SummmaryAATIS completted this feassibility study to evaluate techniques tto distribute Earthquake Early Warninng (EEW)nnotifications tot the generaal public throough cell phoones via the cellular netwwork as a waay to compleement theCCalifornia Inteegrated Seismmic Network (CISN).(An EEWEsystem has been conceptualized for the Westt Coast ofthe United StatesSwithin existing opeerational environments off three regioonal seismic networks in southernCCalifornia (Soouthern Califoornia Seismicc Network, SCSN)Sand nnorthern Califfornia (Northeern Californiaa SeismicSSystem, NCSS). The Paciffic Northwest (Pacific Northhwest Seismiic Network, PPNSN) and other Advancedd NationalSSeismic Systeem (ANSS) areas in North America (, the New MMadrid Seismiic Zone, etc.)) are beyond the scopeoof this study. The study toook into consideration the basic EEW SSystem servicce model connsisting of componentsthat are used,, or planned tot be used, inn EEW systemms around th e world. Thiss report proviides a summary of thisffeasibility studdy.AAs a conclusion of this sttudy, ATIS deetermined thaat a cellular wwireless broaadcast EEW notification iss a viablecconcept desiggned within thhe constraintss and limitatioons of the ceellular wirelesss networks. TThis study deescribes approposed arcchitecture forr the EEW system for thetdistributioon of time sensitive EEEW notificatioons usingccapabilities inn the LTE brooadcast channel. This architecture usees broadcast capabilities in the cellularr network.BBroadcast hass the potentiaal to reach millions of userss in seconds to minutes in an inherentlyy geo-targeteed fashion,wwhereas tryinng to reach thhe same nummber of userrs via traditio nal SMS or push data seervices (“appps”) wouldsswamp the neetwork, slowinng the deliveryy of EEW nottifications to a crawl.TThe EEW nottification areaa is assumed to be a circlee specified byy the estimateed surface loocation of the epicenteraand an assocciated radius where the EEEW notificatioon should bee broadcast. TThe cellular nnetworks opeerators willmmake the besst approximattion to map the EEW notification area to the assocciated set of cell sites which are tobbroadcast the EEW notificaation.Earthhquake Earlyy Warning Syystem (EEWSS)BBased on the completed study, ATIS iss confident thaat North Ameerican standaards can be specified to ennable LTEccellular netwoork broadcast of EEW nootifications orriginated by aan earthquakke alert centeer. 3G netwoorks havetechnology limmitations and are infeasible for supportting EEW nottifications; non-cellular (, Wi-Fi) netwworks are1

ATIS-0700020out of scope of this study. Specifically, Early Warning notifications to machine-to-machine (M2M) devices, Internetof Things (IoT) devices, and non-human recipients (e.g., elevators, trains, planes, bridges) are out of scope forthis feasibility study.In the course of this study, ATIS also evaluated other technologies and determined they are not feasible to meetEEW notification requirements. For example, Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) is designed to provide imminentthreat alerts, however the WEA system is not designed for or capable of distributing time-sensitive EEWnotifications. An EEW system must support time-sensitive delivery requirements that are beyond the ability ofWEA, where delivery time may be measured in minutes. WEA is appropriate for less-time sensitive alertsproviding authorized alerting authorities a means to provide information to citizens, for example in the aftermath ofan earthquake. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and ATIS must collaborate to understand the limitations andlatencies in the IPAWS/WEA system.Upon agreement to proceed into the standardization phase by all stakeholders, the proposed ATIS standards willspecify all the relevant interfaces and protocols for an end-to-end system starting from the earthquake alert centerall the way to broadcast to the cell phone that will notify the users of an imminent earthquake. It is recommendedATIS standardize cellular network aspects of system security and engineering, alert messages and distribution,and overall system performance for the EEWS. The EEWS solution proposed by ATIS will take several years todevelop and deploy, starting with developing the new ATIS standards, updating cellular operators’ networks,designing new cell phones that can receive EEW notifications, educating the public on the new service, anddeploying the interfaces to the earthquake alert center. To that end, close collaboration between USGS, CISN,ATIS, cellular network operators, and other relevant parties will be required to ensure a successful and timelystandardization, planning, development, testing, and deployment of an EEW system. ATIS should be involved inthe development of ANSS and CEEWS standards to identify impacts to the CMSP and EEWS. It is also assumedATIS will collaborate in the development of standards for the maximum allowable telemetry latency and minimumquality of service for data sources so an end-to-end latency budget can be determined, as well as defining theend-user perspective for an EEWS. There are public education and public outreach activities that mustaccompany these efforts.Deployed cellular networks and cell phones (at the time of this study) do not support EEW capabilities. Therecommended architecture and solution must be developed, standardized, tested, and deployed prior tosupporting EEW.It is estimated that it will take a minimum of 3-4 years to complete standards and fully deploy EEW capabilities inwireless networks, and begin introducing new cell phones which support EEW alerting. This duration starts oncethe deployment plan and budget for the sensor network and automated decision making framework of the EEWsystem has been approved.Accordingly, all stakeholders should understand that it will be approximately 5-7 years from the date of this report,assuming its recommended actions are implemented immediately, before a substantial number of cellular networkusers (e.g., 25%) will have EEW capabilities in their devices. Consumer adoption of E

Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning System Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions Approved July 2015 Abstract This feasibility study evaluates the feasibility of the commercial LTE cellular networks in supporting public earthquake notifications as part of the proposed California Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS).

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