2017 Connecticut Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

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2017 Connecticut Greenhouse Gas Emissions InventoryThis summary provides an overview of Connecticut’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1990to 2017, the most recent year for which full dataare available.1 The statewide GHG emissioninventory is an important tool for trackingConnecticut’s progress toward the goals set bythe Global Warming Solutions Act and An ActConcerning Climate Change Planning and Resiliency. These statutory requirements set targetsof reducing GHG emissions 10 percent below1990 levels by 2020, 45 and 80 percent below2001 levels by 2030 and 2050 respectively.2,3Inventory MethodologyA federal standard for economy-wide GHGaccounting does not currently exist. In theabsence of a federal standard, the ConnecticutDepartment of Energy & EnvironmentalProtection (DEEP) is committed to continuousimprovement of its accounting methodology.This includes identifying improvements in boththe quality of data and methods utilized tocalculate annual GHG emissions.Like several states across the country thatregularly perform economy-wide GHG inventories, DEEP relies heavily on the U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency’s (EPA) StateInventory Tool (SIT). The tool calculates sectorby-sector GHG emissions based on numerousstate-level data sets (e.g., number of gallons offuel oil sold in Connectitcut), including energy-related data provided by the Energy InformationAdministration (EIA). EPA recommends thatstates employ their own data when these arelikely to be more reliable than the tool’s defaultfigures. DEEP’s inventory uses SIT default data,with two exceptions. First, because SIT data onland use, land use change, and forestry appearunreliable, they have not been included in thestate’s recent inventori es. DEEP aims to developan alternative means to estimate GHG impacts ofland use and forestry for use in preparing futureinventories. Second, this analysis continues topresent both a consumption and generationbased accounting approach for the electricitysector.Based on best practices among states reportingstate-wide GHG emissions, and reflecting theregional nature of the electric grid, the consumption-based accounting for the electric powersector was first applied in the 2013 inventoryanalysis. In prior GHG inventories, emissionsfrom the electric power sector had been basedentirely on direct emissions from generationof electricity by power plants operating withinstate boundaries.A consumption-basedapproach calculates emissions based onConnecticut’s share of electricity consumptionin New England, using the emissions profile ofthe regional electric grid’s generation fuel mix.Specifically, the consumption-based approachfor the electricity sector uses the annualelectricity load data from the IndependentSystem Operator, New England (ISO-NE). Wethen account for emissions from RenewableEnergy Certificates (RECs) purchased/soldby Connecticut retail electricity sellers, andmegawatt hours of losses (and associatedemissions) due to pumped hydro. And finally,the total energy consumed is multiplied by theregional New England emission factor to obtainemissions associated with the State’s energyconsumption. The New England emission factortakes into account the regional fuel mix as wellas the associated GHG emissions from eachpower source for any particular year.New to the inventory analysis is the inclusion ofemissions from transmission and distributionleagage of natural gas. Emissions from thenatural gas transmission system were calculatedusing the EPA SIT Natural Gas and Oil Module.Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental ProtectionOffice of Climate Change, Technology and Research

Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental ProtectionConnecticut Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990-2017Comparison of Electricty Sector Generation and Consumption-based AccountingMillion metric tons of CO2e554410.5% below 1990 levels (consumption accounting)12.3% below 1990 levels (generation accounting)3322110199019952000200520102015* Targets shown in this graph utilize the consumption-based approach 1990 baseline of 45.2 MMT CO2e. The generation-based approach1990 baseline is 45.6 MMT CO2e.Emissions from natural gas distribution systemswere calculated based on Connecticut PublicUtilities Regulatory Authority (PURA), the EIA,and Pipeline and Hazardous Materials SafetyAdministration (PHMSA) data. Emissions werenot calculated for the following sources: naturalgas production, natural gas flaring, and oil.2017 GHG EmissionsUsing the consumption-based accountingapproach for electricity, Connecticut’s economy-wide GHG emissions in 2017 were 40.6million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxideequivalent (CO2e), 10.5 percent below 1990levels and 17.4 percent below 2001 levels.4In comparison, emissions using the generation-based accounting approach were 40 MMTCO2e, 12.3 percent below 1990 levels and 17.1percent below 2001 levels.The transportation sector continues to be thesingle largest source of emissions in the state,4 Emissions are reported in terms of carbon dioxide equivalence (CO2e).Carbon dioxide is the primary GHG. Emissions of other GHGs areexpressed on the basis of their potential to contribute to global warming,relative to carbon dioxide’s potential.contributing 38 percent, principally from the useof fossil fuels in passenger cars and light-dutytrucks. Dropping 0.8 percent since 1990 and13 percent since 2001, further transportationemission reductions are critical to meeting theState’s targets. And, although national fueleconomy standards have improved vehicleefficiency, the number of vehicle miles drivenin Connecticut have increased, which is likelythe contributing factor for not attaining greateremission reductions in the transportation sector.Significantly reducing transportation emissionsin the coming decades will require continuedimprovements in vehicle fuel economy and GHGemission standards for all class sizes, increaseddeployment of zero-emission vehicles, andstrategies that reduce vehicle miles traveled.Electric sector emissions are down 29 percentfrom 1990 and 31 percent from 2001. Thisreduction correlates with state and regionalpolicies and programs that encourageinvestment in energy efficiency in homes and

Connecticut Emissions by Sector 415.511.912.19.38.69.38.6Electric .350.330.250.24NG leakage0.750.470.260.24Generation-baseAccounting Total45.648.240.540.0Consumption-basedAccounting ialNG lectric 8.1%2017 Sector Emissions(consumption-based ic Power20.9%Consumption-based Accounting10.5% below 1990 levels17.4% below 2001 levelsbusinesses, a shift from dirtier fossil fuels such as coal and oil to natural gas, and increased deploymentof renewable energy sources. Additional emissions reductions in this sector will come from furtherreducing reliance on oil and coal during periods of peak electricity demand, continual expansion ofrenewable energy, and mainstreaming of energy efficiency in homes, businesses, and industry.Economy and DemographicsOverall trends in the inventory demonstrate that the carbon intensity of Connecticut’s economy hasdeclined — falling 55 percent from 1990 to 2017, 0.39 pounds of CO2e per dollar (USD 2012). Thisdemonstrates significant long-term decoupling of economic growth and carbon pollution. In additionto this, Connecticut’s per capita emissions are among the lowest in the country and have declined 18percent between 1990 and 2017.Pounds of CO2e per real (2012)of CT Gross State Product1.0Pounds of CO2e Per 1990199520002005201020150199019952000Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental ProtectionOffice of Climate Change, Technology and Research200520102015

Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental ProtectionConnecticut monthly temperature anomalyfrom 1980-2018 for January, February, and MarchTemperature Anomalies (deg 000200520102015Temperature anomaly is the departure of detrended monthly means from 1980-2018 climatology in degrees Fahrenheit. Source: NOAAstatewide Climate at a Glance (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/).Effects of Extreme Weather EventsTemperatures from January through March2017 were well above average. Additionally,annual heating degree days (HDD) for 2017was the second lowest on record (lowestin 2012). However, a record-breaking, lateDecember 2017 cold snap resulted in more fuelconsumption (than in 2016) for thermal use inthe commercial and residential sectors.In the ISO-NE region, over 50% of electricitygeneration is from natural gas-fueledre-sources. During extreme cold winter events,demand for natural gas to meet heating needsis high resulting in less natural gas pipelinecapacity for electric generators. To ensureelectric reliability, GHG intensive oil and coalelectric generating units are called up-on tosatisfy the regions electric needs.The emission factors for coal and oil (205-214and 161-210 CO2 lb/MMBtu, respectively) arehigher than emission factors for natural gas(177 CO2 lb/MMBtu). When a larger percentageof GHG intensive fuels are used, overall carbonemissions for the New England region will behigher. Extreme winter events have a significant impact on regional GHG emissions in boththe electric and building sectors. Ramping upmeasures such as building efficiency improvements for the commercial and residentialbuildings will help to ensure Connecticutachieves its ambitious reduction targets.Building a Low Carbon Future forConnecticutConnecticut is implementing a suite of complementary strategies to ensure that the stateis on a course to achieve its mandatory GHGreduction targets. The range of GHG reductionactions include direct regulations, monetaryand non-monetary incentives, market-basedmechanisms, and recognition for voluntaryactions.

The Governor’s Council on Climate Change (GC3)examined the effectiveness of existing policiesand regulations designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and identified new strategies to ensure the state meets it’s statutorytargets. The Council submitted its recommendations on December 18, 2018 when it releasedthe report Building a Low Carbon Future forConnecticut: Achieving a 45% GHG Reductionby 2030.The recommendations in the report build uponthe successful policies and measures the Statehas implemented to date, proposes strengthening existing programs, and recommendspursuing new strategies to ensure Connecticutis on a sustainable path to reach its mid- andlong-term GHG emission- reduction targets.The recommendations underscore that there isno single solution, instead, they offer a balancedmix of strategies that allow for flexibilityand mid-course adjustments as technologiesimprove and costs change over time. Moreover,the recommendations outlined in the reportare guided by the following key conclusionswhich emerged from the analysis of reductionpathways and include:Beneficial Electrification: To achieve deepdecarbonization across all sectors, electrification of energy end uses is essential. This willrequire shifting away from utilizing fossil fuelsto power transportation and building thermalloads to electric technologies that have no directemissions. Widespread deployment of electrictechnologies such as electric vehicles and heatpumps will be a primary means to achieve deepeconomy-wide reductions.Zero-Carbon Electricity Generation: AsConnecticut moves to electrify energy enduses, it will see increased demand in electricityand a simultaneous shifting of emissions awayfrom the building and transportation sectors tothe electric sector. While electricity generationhas become increasingly cleaner over the past15 years, we will need to continue to decarbonize the electric grid – achieving 84 percentcarbon-free electric generation by 2050.Energy Efficiency: Cost-effective energyefficiency measures are essential in the earlyyears to drive down energy consumption andGHG emissions from fossil fuels. However, in thelong term, as the electric-grid decarbonizes, themarginal impact of efficiency leads to less potentreductions in carbon emissions. Nevertheless,in the long run energy efficiency measures willhelp reduce the extent of increased electricitydemand and avoid the costs of developingunnecessary generation and transmission/distribution capacity.Scale and Pace of Change: The scale and paceof change needed to achieve Connecticut’semission- reduction targets require immediateand consistent action. Moreover, action acrossall sectors of the economy is necessary, in partbecause of interactive effects between them.Economic Impacts: Meeting Connecticut’snear- and long-term GHG emission reductiontargets will have a small net positive economicimpact.Legislators, state agencies, municipalities,businesses, non-profit organizations, andresidents must work together if Connecticutis to meet its emission-reduction goals. Legislative support is necessary to research, draft,and enact policy that places the State ona downward trajectory. State agencies willbe responsible for establishing the properregulatory framework and programs to enforcethe State’s environmental policy agenda. Homerule enables municipalities to lead by examplein: adopting modern, efficient, and sustainableConnecticut Department of Energy and Environmental ProtectionOffice of Climate Change, Technology and Research

Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protectionbuilding codes; transitioning their vehicle fleetsto zero-emission vehicles; and sharing resourcesto help residents and businesses achieve energysavings and emission reductions. Businessescan advance climate leadership by investingin renewable energy, deploying low-carbontechnologies, sustainably sourcing resources,and developing transformative solutions.Non-profit organizations can contribute topolicymaking processes by advocating forequitable outcomes. Connecticut’s residentswill be critical to adopting the technologies andbehaviors necessary to reduce emissions andsupporting progressive climate action.The strategies and suite of recommendationspresented in the report serve as foundationalsteps to put Connecticut on track to actualizethese objectives. Additional actions, beyondthose proposed in the report, will need to beregularly evaluated and integrated into stateand local planning efforts and acted upon bypublic and private entities alike.

land use and forestry for use in preparing future inventories. Second, this analysis continues to present both a consumption and generation based accounting approach for the electricity sector. Based on best practices among states reporting state-wide GHG emissions, and reflecting the regional nature of the electric grid, the consump -

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