EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017, Outlook To 2022
EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017,Outlook to 202210th Edition – June 2017
Welcome to the EvaluatePharmaWorld Preview 2017, Outlook to 2022 The tenth edition of EvaluatePharma’s WorldPreview brings together many of our analysesto provide a top level insight, from the world’sfinancial markets, into the expected performanceof the industry between now and 2022. Based onEvaluatePharma’s coverage of the world’s leading6,500 pharmaceutical and biotech companies,the World Preview highlights trends in prescriptiondrug sales, patent risk, R&D spend, global brandsales and market performance by therapy area.Also included this year are analysis on WorldwidePharma Innovation 2008-2022 with insights intopipeline value creation through 2022, fastestgrowing companies and the top performers interms of RoI. Complimentary copies of the fullreport can be downloaded ePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
ForewordThe uncertainty that hit the wider pharma world last year with the US presidentialelections, weak economic growth, Brexit and ever-increasing pressure on drugprices has continued into 2017. Despite all this, the long-term outlook for theindustry remains broadly positive.This year, Evaluate’s World Preview 2017 shows that prescription drugsales are forecast to grow at an impressive annual compound rate of 6.5%,eventually hitting 1.06trn worldwide in 2022. Much of this growth is set tocome from some of the industry’s hottest therapy areas including new cancerimmunotherapies like Opdivo and Keytruda, as well as much higher-risk assetslike Biogen’s Alzheimer’s project aducanumab.It is notable that orphan drugs are expected to be responsible for a third of thisuplift in sales – an uptick that is forecast to come even as these niche medicinesare coming under increasing scrutiny over pricing.In fact this pressure is likely to be largelyresponsible for the first downgrade to our longterm sales projection for the first time in tenyears of Evaluate’s World Preview. Last year,our consensus forecasts showed that worldwidedrug sales would reach 1.12trn in 2022.This slight retraction is likely due to a number of factors, but the continuing squeeze on pricing is almostcertainly a major one. Although Donald Trump has yet to directly intervene on US drug costs, the threatremains ever present and some pharma companies have announced their own pre-emptive strikes, bypublicly announcing caps to price hikes.Other potential brakes on the industry’s upward trajectory are the forecast 194bn worth of sales at risk, asproducts come to the end of their patent life. The rate and level of erosion of sales of some of the industry’sbiggest biologics, many of which are facing multiple incursions on their revenues from biosimilars, have yetto be determined. This could create what some believe will be the industry’s second patent cliff.3EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
ForewordThe desire to restock pipelines to mitigateagainst the loss of big franchises will continueto drive deal making. A big drop in the numberof drug approvals in the US last year from 56in 2015 to 27 in 2016 serves to highlight thescarcity value of novel medicines. While thedip in the FDA’s activity probably reflects areturn to more sustainable approval ratesfollowing the glut in 2015, however, if thedecline continues then large scale mergersmight come back on the tableMany believe that US tax reform plans need to emerge before really big deals materialise, however thereis already pressure on the likes of Sanofi, Pfizer and Gilead to shore up their pipelines. Finding the righttargets at the right price will be crucial, and if deals do happen at the level some are predicting it could shiftthe balance of power at the top of pharma.At the moment no one pharma company is forecast to stand head and shoulders above its peers. Onlythe slenderest of margins will exist between the top three companies in 2022, current forecasts suggest.Novartis is predicted to return to the top spot with expected sales of 49.8bn in 2022, compared with 49.7bn for Pfizer and 49.6bn for Roche. It would take only one high profile failure to change theserankings.Alongside clinical failure, other industry headwinds that could affect the predictions laid out in this reportinclude the rising cost of R&D, with the report finding the average spend per NME was 4bn over the last10 years. Also the demand for evidence of long-term value by payers is prompting pharma players to shiftfrom volume to value driven strategies, in the hope of gaining market access - a big step change.The future role of technology, which appears to be outpacing pharma innovation, is also another unknown.Remote monitoring and care, artificial intelligence and machine learning could all have huge impacts onpharma companies. It should be hoped that these changes, rather than being overlooked by the industry,will be embraced and ultimately help it achieve the growth forecast in this report.Antonio IervolinoHead of Forecasting, Evaluate Ltd4EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Lisa UrquhartEditor, EP VantageCopyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Analysis HighlightsWorldwide Prescription Drug Sales 2017-22 in figures 6.5%DriversCAGR*2017-22Brakes 95bnAdditional sales in 2022 fromOrphan drugs(32% of total growth)Increase of the pharmaceuticalbill. Can the system payfor innovation? 6.5%27New FDA approvals in 2016,down 50% vs 2015, but pacepicking up again in 2017Sales at risk during 2017-22period due to patent expiry.Increasing risk from biosimilars 194bnBiosimilar erosion expectedfor top selling biologics. Moreaggressive estimates vs. 2016-54%522m 13%Average value of new approvalsin 2016*. Above 2010-15 average*USA sales 5 yrs post launch2016-22 CAGR for Oncologytherapies to reach 192bn in2022. PD-1/PD-L1 close to 30bnAverage R&D spend per NMEsince 2006. Increasing pressureon pharma productivityCAGR2017-22SalesErosion 4bn* Compound Annual Growth Rate. Worldwide prescription drug sales forecasted to grow ata robust 6.5% (CAGR) through 2022 to reach 1.06trn 32% of the 2022 increase in sales to come from orphandrugs ( 95bn) Sales at risk worth 194bn potentially signal a second patent cliff era with theadvent of biosimilars Novartis, Pfizer and Roche to compete head to head for the crown of worldwidePrescription sales in 2022, but Novartis seems to have a slight edge Celgene ( 15%) and Shire ( 10%) expected to record the fastest sales growth(CAGR) by 2022 although growth estimates have been revised downward inthe last 12 months5EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Analysis Highlights Biologics to contribute 52% of the Top 100 product sales by 2022; Rocheleads market Roche gains the top spot of the pipeline value creation ranking proving itsleadership ambitions beyond oncology. AstraZeneca and AbbVie completethe podium Novo Nordisk’s portfolio expected to yield the highest return on investmentin the future Biogen’s aducanumab and J&J’s apalutamide projected to be the mostvaluable R&D projects Worldwide pharmaceutical R&D spend expected to grow by 2.4% (CAGR) to 181bn in 2022 Average R&D spend per NME at 4bn over the last 10 years Roche forecast to be the biggest spender on pharmaceutical R&D in 2022. New drug approvals in 2016 drop to 27 NMEs down 50% vs. the record highof 56 in 2015. Positive trend in the first 5 months of 2017 with 21 NMEsalready approved Oncology is still the largest therapy area in sales ( 12.7% CAGR) 2016-22 Roche remains atop the oncology field but its leadership is challenged byCelgene. Novartis to drop out of the top 3 Novo Nordisk is expected to remain the major player in the anti-diabeticsmarket in 2022, but Lilly is gaining ground behind driven by Trulicity AbbVie still dominates anti-rheumatics market in 2022; ABT-494 (upadacitinib)set to be the most promising R&D asset in development GSK leads in the vaccine market ahead of Merck and Pfizer Pfizer’s pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13 remains the top selling vaccine product Gilead lead continues in anti-viral market in 2022 largely due to its HIV portfolio Opdivo and Revlimid to compete for the top selling products in the world in 2022 Humira still expected to be the top selling drug in 2022 at 15.9bn ahead ofRevlimid and Opdivo Keytruda ( 9.5bn in 2022) nearly closed the gap with Opdivo ( 9.9bn) in termsof consensus forecast Eliquis took over Xarelto as the leading anti-coagulant in 2022 at 8.5bn AbbVie’s Humira will continue to be the leading product in the USA in 2022,with sales of 12.0bn. Keytruda knocks off Opdivo as the top-selling PD-1/PD-L1product in 20226EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Table of ContentsContents79Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2008-2022)11Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2022: Top 20 Companies13Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Sales by Technology (2008-2022)15Worldwide Pharma Innovation (2008-2022)18Top 20 Most Valuable R&D Projects (Ranked by Net Present Value)20Worldwide R&D Spend by Pharma & Biotech Companies (2008-2022)21Pharmaceutical R&D Spend in 2022: Top 20 Companies22FDA New Drug Approval Analysis NMEs & Biologicals: (2001-2016)24Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTC Sales by Therapy Area in 202226Oncology Market to 202228Anti-Diabetics Market to 202230Anti-Rheumatics Market to 202232Vaccines Market to 202234Anti-Virals Market to 2022372022: Top 50 Selling Products in the World392022: Top 50 Selling Products in the USAEvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales(2008-2022)part 1 of 2access value proposition. Although this all points to arather optimistic future for the industry, since June 2016 theindustry’s CAGR has only just revived itself from a prediction ofa 5.4% CAGR over the same period, demonstrating uncertaintysurrounding pharma. As with all changes within the industry, manyvariables have contributed to this uncertain environment, but somemain factors can be identified. Firstly, the 194bn of sales at riskbetween 2017 and 2022 signals that the pharma industry has justentered a second patent cliff era where top biologic blockbusterswill be challenged by biosimilars. The investment of large biotechcompanies in this space, such as Biogen and Amgen, is likely tofast track the commercial impact of these therapies. Secondly,the US market access landscape continues to rapidly transformforcing pharmaceutical companies to adjust their access strategies,either through pay for performance deals or more payer-friendlyprices at launch.Worldwide prescription drug sales forecasted to grow at 6.5%(CAGR) through to 2022.According to Evaluate consensus forecast, the pharmaceuticalindustry is set to grow at 6.5% per year (CAGR) to reach 1.06trnby 2022. This growth can be largely attributed to the expansionof existing therapies such as the PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors Opdivo andKeytruda and J&J’s Darzalex, as well as the launch of novel therapies,such as Sanofi/Regeron’s Dupixent in atopic dermatitis and Roche’sOcrevus in multiple sclerosis. CAR-T therapies continue to generateinterest in oncology although the recent safety issues have partiallydampened any short term excitement.The orphan drug market is expected to almost double duringthe 2016-22 period, peaking at 209bn in 2022 and furtherdemonstrating that R&D programmes are increasingly orientedtowards more narrow patient populations characterised by largerunmet need, a faster route to market and a more compelling marketWorldwide Total Prescription Drug Sales (2008-2022)Source: Evaluate, May 20171,200 6.5% CAGR ription excl. Generics & OrphanWorldwide Sales At Risk from Patent Expiration (2008-2022)80 7% 6%70WW Sales ( bn)739695651Source: Evaluate, May 2017 8% 7% 7%605040302010 4% 5% 4% 3%121220082009 4%5248 4%41313331242018 4%37342924 4%52 5% 5%201331231514 2%19191717 2% 5% 4%49 3% 2%2114130 1% 0%2010201120122013Total Sales at Risk8 6%% at RiskWW Prescription Drug Sales ( bn)1,060990EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017201420152016Expected Sales Lost201720182019202020212022% Market at RiskCopyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2008-2022)part 2 of 2Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2008-2022)Worldwide Total Prescription Drug Sales (2008-2022)Source: Evaluate, May 2017Source: Evaluate, May 2017WW Prescription Sales ( bn)Year 1,200Prescription1,000Growth per 32719727750741768WW Prescription Drug Sales ( bn) 2.2%Change vs. June 2016 ( bn)800664649Generics68654 3.3%732 6.8%-1.8% 1.1%750727719 3.2%-1.1%774 3.6%7747687412017 6.5%2018CAGR20192017-222020811 0.8%811-48860 4.7%8602021920 990990920 6.1% 7.0%-63-71-76909510120221,0601,060 7.6% 7.0%-71-61546066677075777984600Genericsas % of %596556610587626568 666 567 652 57965757566556768965111.1%614 11.0% 10.9%Prescription excl. Generics547536400Growth per Year10.9%587690721765820884948-1.5% 3.7% 0.2% 4.4% 6.1% 7.1% 7.8% escription excl. Generics6360& Orphan5454020082009 2.4%536706063547 79662010563675 2.6% 6.4%-2.1%7079849096102115587 90 56870965677510257977115563791235758420162017556 84672011Prescription incl. Generics CAGR 17-22 6.5%2012 0.7%2013 12020106 73911269510.7%10.6%20212022Note: Sales to 2016 based on company reported sales data. Salesforecasts to 2022 basedon a consensus Prescriptionof leading equityexcl.analysts’estimatescompany product sales and segmental sales.GenericsOrphanGenerics& forOrphanWorldwide Sales At Risk from Patent Expiration (2008-2022) 7%WW Sales ( bn) 8% 7% 6%70 7%605040302010 4% 5% 4% 3%121220082009 4%5248 4%41313331242018 4%37342924 4%52 5% 5%3123201513 2%1914191717 5% 4%49 2% 6% 3%% at Risk80Source: Evaluate, May 2017 2%2114130 1% 0%20102011201220132014Total Sales at Risk2015201620182017Expected Sales Lost2020201920212022% Market at RiskPatent Analysis: ‘Total Sales at Risk’ represents the worldwide product sales in the year prior to patent expiry but allocated to the year ofexpiry. E.g. Plavix had sales of 7.1bn in 2011, this is shown above as ‘At Risk’ in 2012.Worldwide Sales At Risk from Patent Expiration (2008-2022)Source: Evaluate, May 2017WW Prescription Sales ( 9202020212022Total Sales at Risk1829345231314852333141172149Expected Sales Lost121213203724201514231919171413 3% 4% 4% 5% 7% 4% 4% 6% 7% 4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 5%% Market at risk9242010EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2022:Top 20 CompaniesNovartis forecast to lead pharma ranking in 2022, but Pfizer andRoche will challenge its leadership.Evaluate finds that three companies will be closely competing forthe top spot. According to the latest sell side consensus forecast,Novartis seems to have a slight edge over Pfizer and Roche, butseveral themes overlap among the three contenders. The impactof biosimilars will be a decisive factor for the future of Roche andPfizer, with the former having a significant share of its portfolio atrisk and the latter playing on both sides of the fence where thelosses from Enbrel could be offset by the upside coming fromthe biosimilar franchise acquired through Hospira. Pfizer andRoche will be also crossing paths in the PD-1/PD-L1 space wherepart 1 of 2their assets, Bavencio and Tecentriq respectively, are late joinerswhile Novartis’s Kisqali will be challenging Pfizer’s Ibrance for theleadership in the CDK 4&6 space.Behind the top three, Celgene exhibits the largest jump and isforecast to enter the top 10 driven by its anti-cancer therapeuticRevlimid and its immunosuppressant Otezla adding a combined 17.1 bn to its 2022 prescription drug sales. Gilead moves in theopposite direction leaving the top ten ranking due to the projectederosion of its HCV franchise while the market is still awaiting foran in-organic play to boost its revenue projections and longerterm outlook. Shire is anticipated to enter the top 20 following theacquisition of Baxalta.Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2022: Top 10 CompaniesSales ( bn)Ranking Change 2016-2250.049.7-149.6 0 20% 18%41.7 140.5 140.0 15%38.5-234.0 233.7 030.0 16% 14% 12%28.4 226.0 11 10% 8%20.0 4% 3%10.0 4% 3% 1% 5% 5% 6% 3%CAGR 2016 - 2022 (%)WW Prescription Drug Sales ( bn)60.049.8 1Source: Evaluate, May 2017 4% 1% 2% 0%0.0NovartisPfizerRocheSanofiJohnson &JohnsonMerck& CoAbbVieGlaxoSmithKlineAstraZenecaCelgeneWorldwide Prescription Drug Sales (2016-2022):Top 20 Companies & Total MarketSource: Evaluate, May 2017WW Market ShareRankRankCompany2016WW Prescription Sales ( bn)2022CAGRChg. ( /-)Rank20162022Chg. ( /-)Chg. ( /-)1.Novartis41.649.8 3%-2.65.4%4.7%-0.7pp 12.Pfizer45.949.7 1% 0.66.0%4.7%-1.3pp-13.Roche39.649.6 4%-3.05.2%4.7%-0.5pp 04.Sanofi34.241.7 3%-3.74.4%3.9%-0.5pp 15.Johnson & Johnson31.740.5 4% 0.64.1%3.8%-0.3pp 16.Merck & Co35.738.5 1%-0.64.6%3.6%-1.0pp-27.AbbVie25.334.0 5% 3.03.3%3.2%-0.1pp 28.GlaxoSmithKline27.833.7 3% 1.23.6%3.2%-0.4pp 09.AstraZeneca21.028.4 5%-1.82.7%2.7%-0.1pp 210.Celgene11.126.0 15% 0.41.4%2.5% 1.0pp 11Top 1 1-20 continued over 10EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug Sales in 2022: Top 20 Companiespart 2 of 2Source: Evaluate, May 2017WW Market ShareRankRankCompany2016WW Prescription Sales ( bn)2022CAGRChg. ( /-)Rank20162022Chg. ( /-)Chg. ( /-)11.Bristol-Myers Squibb17.725.6 6%-2.02.3%2.4% 0.1pp 312.Amgen21.924.1 2%-2.92.9%2.3%-0.6pp-213.Teva Pharmaceutical Industries18.522.3 3% 4.82.4%2.1%-0.3pp 014.Novo Nordisk16.621.7 5%-5.62.2%2.1%-0.1pp 315.Bayer16.921.2 4% 1.62.2%2.0%-0.2pp 116.Gilead Sciences30.020.8-6%-8.33.9%2.0%-1.9pp-917.Eli Lilly17.220.7 3%-1.32.2%2.0%-0.3pp-218.Allergan18.619.2 1%-11.52.4%1.8%-0.6pp-619.Shire10.919.0 10%-1.51.4%1.8% 0.4pp 320.Boehringer Ingelheim13.318.5 6% 0.21.7%1.7% 0.0pp-2Total Top 20495.2605.0 3%64.5%57.1%-7.4ppOther272.8454.7 9%35.5%42.9%Total768.01,059.7 6%100.0%100.0%Note: Prescription drug sales include generic drug sales. Excludes alliance revenue and royalties where possible.2016 Teva Pharmaceutical Industries sales reflect Actavis Generics business.11EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017Copyright 2017 Evaluate Ltd. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Prescription Drug & OTCSales by Technology (2008-2022)Use of biotech technology continues to rise, contributing to 52%of the Top 100 product sales by 2022, overtaking small moleculedrugs. Roche still market leader.part 1 of 2products drop off the patent cliff and new breakthrough biologicsget approved. Within this outlook, Roche will continue to be theundisputed market leader although with a 5bn reduction in 2022forecast sales since last year the gap is narrowing. Bristol-MyersSquibb retains a CAGR ( 12%) among the highest in the top 10, butwith recent setbacks to Opdivo, it has dropped 4 places comparedto our consenus forecasts from last year and is perilously close tofalling out of the top 10.The uptake of biologics is expected to continue as novel biologicblockbusters keep entering the pharmaceutical market. Thepenetration of biotech products is set to increase from a 25%market share in 2016 to 30% in 2022. According to the latestEvaluate consensus forecast, in 2022 52% of the value of the top100 products will come from biologics as established chemicalWor
main factors can be identified. Firstly, the 194bn of sales at risk between 2017 and 2022 signals that the pharma industry has just entered a second patent cliff era where top biologic blockbusters will be challenged by biosimilars. The investment of large biotech EvaluatePharma World Preview 2017 2017 2022 2017 2022
Outlook 2013, Outlook 2016, or volume-licensed versions of Outlook 2019 Support for Outlook 2013, 2016, and volume-licensed versions of Outlook 2019 ends in December 2021. To continue using the Outlook integration after the end of 2021, make plans now to upgrade to the latest versions of Outlook and Windows. Outlook on the web
Zend avesta em portugues pdf. You are reading a free preview pages 33 through 39 are not shown in this preview. You are reading a free 50 page view page is not shown in this preview. You are reading a free preview pages 56 through 64 are not shown in this preview. You are reading a free preview pages 70 to 100 are not shown in this preview.
o Microsoft Outlook 2000 o Microsoft Outlook 2002 o Microsoft Outlook 2003 o Microsoft Outlook 2007 o Microsoft Outlook 2010 o Microsoft Outlook 2013 o Microsoft Outlook 98 o Microsoft PowerPoint 2000 o Microsoft PowerPoint 2002 – Normal User o Microsoft PowerPoint 2002 – Power User o Microsoft PowerPoint 2002 – Whole Test
Outlook 2003 with Exchange 2010 still gives an excellent email experience and the improvements made in Outlook 2007, Outlook 2010 and Outlook 2013 are relatively minor. Outlook 2003 was the first version of Outlook capable of connecting to an Exchange server over the Internet, as opposed to an Exchange server located on the same LAN.
Outlook Integration with Salesforce Page 1 of 19 Outlook Integration with Salesforce This guide will help you set up the Outlook Integration add-in, which replaces the Salesforce for Outlook app you may be familiar with, within Outlook and Outlook on the Web to connect to Salesforce, and show you how to log emails, events and meetings to Salesforce.
Outlook 2016 Setup Instructions Page 1 of 18 How to Configure Outlook 2016 to connect to Exchange 2010 Currently Outlook 2016 is the version of Outlook supplied with Office 365. Outlook 2016 will install and work correctly on any version of Windows 7, Windows 8 or Windows 10. Outlook 2016 won't install on Windows XP or Vista.
109bn from orphan drugs vs. 2018 Proportion of 2024 industry sales from oncology therapies ( 237bn) 19.4% Number of FDA NME approvals anticipated from current clinical pipeline 431 Sales at risk between 2019 and 2024 due to patent expiries 198bn Anti-rheumatics decline as Humira, Enbrel
the topic of artificial intelligence (AI) in English law. AI, once a notion confined to science fiction novels, movies and research papers, is now making a tremendous impact on society. Whether we are aware of it or not, AI already pervades much of our world, from its use in banking and finance to electronic disclosure in large scale litigation. The application of AI to English law raises many .
