Catching The Smart Home Opportunity - Arthur D. Little

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Telecommunication, Information,Media & ElectronicsCatching the Smart HomeOpportunityRoom for Growth for Telecom Operators

ContentIntroduction3Key Trends are Creating Opportunities for Smart Home Services4Home Automation — When the House Becomes Smarter5Smart Home Assistance – Required by the Increasing Complexity of the Ecosystem6Home Cloud – High Growth Perspectives7e-Health – Long-term Opportunity for Telecom Operators8Telecom Operators Have Key Assets to Capture a Significant Part of the Smart Home Value 9 and Need to Place Their Bets Now and Promote Open Platforms10Conclusion11Authors:Didier LevyDr. Karim TagaDirectorManaging PartnerTIME PracticeGlobal Head TIME e.comOmar SaadounLars RiegelBusiness AnalystManagerTIME PracticeTIME tle.comThe authors would like to thank Paul Desjonqueres for his important contribution to this report.

IntroductionSmart Home services are poised for strong growth and represent an attractive opportunity fortelecom operators to expand their services and revenue streams. Telcos have severalcompetitive advantages, including their internet gateways, strong customer relationships, andsales and support networks. However, partnerships are essential and timing is critical.In this report, Arthur D. Little reviews the key trends driving the potential for Smart Home solutions,presents an overview of four main segments and provides recommendations for telecomoperators in the launch of Smart Home services.A Smart Home is a home or building that is equipped with a special connected platform enablingits occupants to remotely control and program an array of automated home electronic devices. TheSmart Home becomes “intelligent” as it offers a wide array of new applications from homeautomation (home security, comfort and entertainment), home cloud (management of content,productivity, sensors data used or produced at home), and e-Health services.Major electronics and software companies have offered Smart Home products since the first homeautomation products in the 1980s. These were followed by integrated media systems, such asMicrosoft’s Home Media Center in the 1990s, and then with the first connected appliances, suchas the Electrolux Screenfridge, in the 2000s. These solutions initially met with limited success, sowhy is the Smart Home a hot topic again today? And how should telecom operators positionthemselves in this growing market? 3

Catching the Smart Home OpportunityKey Trends are Creating Opportunitiesfor Smart Home ServicesHomes, and the way we live and behave in them, have changeddramatically in the past ten years. Today, fundamental trendshave emerged to drive the take-up of Smart Homes:nnSocietal trends – Society is ageing; in 2020, a fifth of theEuropean population will be over 65 years old and singleparent families are expected to represent 21 percent of totalfamilies, increasing demand for new services in the home.nnDigital addiction – Forecasts predict there will be on average 3.6 screens per person in Europe in 2015 (includingsmartphones and tablets) versus 1.7 in 2000. This development is a strong enabler for Smart Home applications asportable devices are the perfect counterparts (as controllers)for smart applications in the home.nnStrong push by large players positioning homes at thecenter of the digital ecosystem – A wide range of leadingplayers are entering the Smart Home market, includingOver-the-top players (such as Google and Microsoft) offeringapplications and operating systems, telecom and utility serviceproviders (such as Telefonica, E.ON and GDF Suez) managingthe customer relationship, and appliance manufacturers (suchas Philips, and LG with the LG Homnet) providing Smart Homedevices (see Figure 1).There is a window of opportunity today, as these trends aredeveloped enough to make Smart Home a potential business.Based on various projects, Arthur D. Little estimates that SmartHome revenues will grow by 12 percent a year until 2020 inEurope. This revenue sizing includes both direct revenues, suchas home automation services/products, and indirect revenues,such as the maintenance of the new devices/services.It should be recognized that Smart Home markets are still in anembryonic phase and many players are entering the market.Telcos are one of them, and should act now in order to capitalizeon the opportunity.The Smart Home market is composed of four major segments,which we will explore in the following sections:nnHome automation/securitynnHome assistancennHome cloudnne-HealthFigure 1: Smart Home has become a hot topic and players from various industries are now placing their bets6Service Providers(Telecom Operators,Utilities)5SW, IT, CommunicationEquipment Players1Smart Home4Source: Arthur D. Little4Smart BuildingControl Specialists2Building Application Players(HVAC, Lighting, Security, )3Electrical Power Distribution/Building Automation PlayersHousehold Appliances Players

Catching the Smart Home OpportunityHome Automation –When the House Becomes SmarterHome automation refers to the centralization on a uniqueuser interface of five main home systems: home security,home energy and utility management (smart meters), homemotorization (remote control of devices such as alarm systemsor thermostats), lighting and entertainment.The main drivers of this segment are comfort, modularity andpeace of mind, especially when it comes to security, whileenergy management emphasizes cost savings. Security andenergy management are the more advanced systems in termsof integration, while home automation is still at the early stagesof development. Arthur D. Little forecasts a 6 percent annualgrowth rate for these services to 2020.The primary challenge for home automation is the existingdisparity of technologies (e.g. power line versus wirelessnetworks, diversity of protocols and platforms). Players aredeveloping alliances and partnerships along the value chain topromote and develop their platform. Telecom operators’ mainentry points are their primary assets, namely the home network(broadband access, set-top boxes, cloud storage and otherconnectivity layers) and related services, such as field servicestaff and network management capabilities (i.e. field staff capableof supporting a home network). They could also extend to homesecurity and alerting, often with the objective of developing apresence in home control and automation (see Figure 2).Figure 2: Home automation will be driven by security and energy solutions, and will remain highly competitiveNest: A Smart ThermostatKey features: Auto-away: Automatically detects nonoccupancy events Auto-Schedule: Learns a user's preferredtemperature, as well as schedule Cost savings: Automatically adjuststemperature to save energy without affectingthe user’s comfort (up to 200 a year)Xfinity Home SecurityHome securitypremisesUser interfaceRelated servicesCameras24/7 remotemonitoringZigBeeTouchscreencontrol panel Ubiquitous connection:Allows access to interface from anyconnected device (PC, smartphone, tablet) Time-to-temperature:Indicates the real time to reach a setpointtemperatureHome managementdevicesWi-FiIntrusion/firedetection sensorsWeb interface Energy History: Analyses cost savingopportunities based on consumption historyRouterSource: Nest, Arthur D. Little analysisSmart energymanagementPolice/Firemencontact in case ofemergencySource: Comcast, Arthur D. Little analysis 5

Catching the Smart Home OpportunitySmart Home Assistance – Required by theIncreasing Complexity of the EcosystemHome assistance refers to configuration, maintenance, repair andsupport services available for digital home devices, such as PCs,TVs, audio sets, video players, game consoles and networks.Home assistance can be divided into two sub-segments:in-home assistance, through the physical presence of supportstaff, and remote assistance, which is managed through theremote control of the device by a off-site technician. This marketis expected to grow at a pace of 5 percent per year to 2020.Despite strong market drivers, such as home digitization, teleworking and “home shoring” (home-based employees), there arestill barriers to further development, such as privacy concerns,poor offers and few successful business models (Figure 3).The Home assistance ecosystem is very fragmented with awealth of solutions offered. Successful players are primarilymaking partnerships, with each one focusing on specific aspectsof the value chain, such as personnel qualification, sales, servicedelivery, billing and CRM. For example, in the United States,OnForce works as a technician network aggregator and openmarketplace. In North America and Europe, the Geek Squadgenerates more than 1.5 billion in revenues, and other playersare emerging such as iYogi or Virgin Digital Help.The main success factor in the Smart Home Assistance marketis the legitimacy perceived by customers, mainly retainedtoday by manufacturers, but telecom operators are also wellpositioned among trusted companies for technical support.Figure 3: Magyar Telekom offers a range of on-site and remote services for both residential and business customers under the“Szuper Szerviz” brandOverview of "Szuper Szerviz" Two kind of services offered: Installation of operating system and applications as well asset-up of networks Maintenance, consulting and problem solving for existingsystems and networks Operations conducted either on-site or via remote access,depending on the problem Service available in the 14 largest cities of Hungary 24/7"Szuper Szerviz« Packages Subscription to Szuper Szerviz through a monthly fee or payas-you-go per individual service Current packages offered:“Alap“HUF 1500EUR 5.50“Komfort“HUF 3000EUR 11.00“Premium“HUF 5000EUR 18.50 Unlimited support requests via telephone included in allpackages Price difference related to on-site visits included(respectively 1, 3 & 6 visits)Source: Magyar Telekom, Arthur D. Little analysis6

Catching the Smart Home OpportunityHome Cloud – High Growth PerspectivesHome cloud covers three main types of digital data: content(video, music, and pictures), productivity (email, documentsand contacts) and sensors (data collected through Smart Homedevices, such as smart meters and e-Health devices) (Figure 4).Home cloud solutions allow new ubiquitous and collaborativeusages, but raise concerns about the management of data. Thismarket is driven by the increasing amount of data, mainly video,leading to a strong demand for remote storage and access. Despitesome inhibitors, such as privacy and trust, the market is expected togrow at a strong pace of 50 percent per year.monthly fee, or Boxee, which is integrating all kinds of locallystored and online content, such as video, music, and photos,and allowing users to share their preferences and content withfriends using social network integration. Over-The-Top players,such as Apple or Google, also offer multi-device, cloud-basedsolutions for Personal Information Management.In this business, telecom operators are able to leveragetheir customer trust, as well as their reliability and existinginfrastructures.There is a vast array of offers pushing interactivity, servicepersonalization and multi-screen usage, such as Hulu Plus andSpotify, which up-sell their viewers to multi-screen services for aFigure 4: Most home cloud storage players have opted for freemium modelsExamples of Home Cloud StorageDropbox: Independent freemiumsynchronization and file sharing servicewith more than 4 million usersGoogle Drive: Cloud storage of documents, music, e-books, photos and videosiCloud: Freemium model including 5GB offree storage and backup for music, apps,photos etc.Microsoft SkyDrive: File saving, sharingand accessing through a browser (to beintegrated with Windows 8)Amazon Cloud Drive: 5GB cloud storagefor photos, documents, videos and otherdigital filesUbuntu One: Freemium model allowing5GBs of free storage and music streaming(available on all the platforms)Source: Companies, Arthur D. Little analysis 7

Catching the Smart Home Opportunitye-Health – Long-term Opportunityfor Telecom OperatorsHealth expenditures of most developed countries are growingsteadily due to the aging of societies and developments in medicaltechnology. e-Health, the application of telecommunicationtechnologies in the health sector, offers a unique cost controllever for health stakeholders by dematerializing some healthcarecomponents. Switzerland, for example, launched the e-HealthStrategy Switzerland program, with potential cost savings of5 percent of total expenditures, thanks to telemedicine. Newcompanies are also emerging, with innovative e-Health solutions,such as Cardiocom, which provides a complete solution fortelemedicine, including connected sensors.While market players are entering e-Health according to theirnatural position in the consumer electronics or medical deviceindustry, several telecom operators are addressing both (Figure 5).However, the value sharing mechanism among actors is uncertain,as it is highly dependent on standardization scenarios, making themarket potential for telecom operators uncertain.A wide variety of actors, such as telecom operators, devicemanufacturers and big pharmaceutical companies, are playingin the e-Health market with two market strategies: a massmarket approach, such as Wii Fit or Withings – a WiFi bodyscale, addressing mainly B2C markets, and a niche marketstrategy, such as electronic patient records and patient remotemonitoring, as a B2B (or B2B2C) market.Figure 5: While most market players enter the e-Health market depending on their natural position between medical devices andconsumer electronics, telcos are addressing the whole sectorActors positioning among the niche vs. the mass market axis (except pure players)“Niche market”(mainly B2B)“Mass market”(mainly B2C)Remote provision of care andpermanent link withpractitionersDaily monitoring/preventionand crisis management fordependentsPreventing health risksHealth management,maintaining a healthy lifestyle,etc.Consumer goods/electronicsMedical devices specialistsTelco’sIllustrationsWellness platformNike Wellness phonePulseFat %BreathCalories Source: Companies, Arthur D. Little analysis8Wii Fit

Catching the Smart Home OpportunityTelecom Operators Have Key Assets to Capturea Significant Part of the Smart Home Value Another significant asset of telecom operators in the SmartHome environment is the central role they play in the customerrelationship. Unlike home appliance manufacturers or someOTT players, operators are continuously in contact with theircustomers, and can thus capture great value by promoting,distributing and managing future Smart Home services. Theyalso have a secure, regular billing relationship with customersthat can be leveraged.Thanks to their broadband Internet gateways, telecom operatorsare the leading players by several hundred percentage points interms of penetration of households with Smart Home solutions.The broadband box has evolved from a mere internet connectiondevice to a highly innovative platform connecting various devices.As shown on Figure 5, the Freebox Revolution broadband box orthe Bbox Sensation by Bouygues Telecom offers a wide range ofmulti-media applications, such as Internet, TV, music and gaming,combined with innovative remote storage services.In addition, telecom operators offer interoperable solutions basedon open models that can allow heterogeneous Smart Homesolutions to interconnect, contrary to closed OTT ecosystems.Good examples are the “beywatch.eu” and “Energy@home”initiatives, the home automation alliances of Telefonica andTelecom Italia, respectively, with a large number of partners, suchas utilities or household appliance manufacturers. However, thisopenness could also be seen as a threat since it allows otherplayers to bypass operators (Figure 6).Other key assets that telcos could leverage include their salesforce, shop networks and support capacity, as well as networkmanagement capabilities. In any case, telecom operators willneed a strong emphasis on staff training in order to correctlyaddress Smart Home’s specific needs.Figure 6: Telecom operators are active in the Smart Home field with initiatives around CPE or large alliancesFreebox Revolution broadband boxEnergy @ Home project in ItalyUser interfaceHome gatewayDevicesGamingService platformInternet on TVGyro remotecontrol Self ManagementAppliance Regulation Automatic control ofelectrical loads Active demandServicesDLNA media serverApps storeSource: Vattenfall, Arthur D. Little analysisNAS storage serverSource: Energy@home, Arthur D. Little analysis 9

Catching the Smart Home Opportunity and Need to Place Their Bets Now andPromote Open PlatformsAs the Smart Home market is still emerging, players needto consider and prepare for various scenarios. Arthur D. Littleanticipates two possible market configurations:Market configuration 1: The Smart Home marketis captured and aggregated into large ecosystemsdriven by global playersThis model is clearly favored by OTT players, which have alreadydeveloped solutions that can bypass the operators. For example,Google has explored various solutions, such as Google Health,Google Powermeter and Google docs, some of which havenevertheless been discontinued.Dedicated Smart Home players have also emerged, such asControl4 or iControl, in the United States. With a revenuegrowth of more than 45 percent a year, Control4 is building anecosystem with leading vendors, such as Black & Decker or LGElectronics, to ensure the interoperability of its platform with thelargest number of home devices.In this concentrated model, telecom operators will face the riskof being circumvented as in the case of smartphone applicationstore. Operators are actually amplifying this risk, as most stillfavor proprietary solutions in order to capture a maximumshare of revenues, but with limited success so far. Indeed suchmodels imply long development cycles and a limited numberof applications, as operators fail to find developers to build theecosystem on verticals.10On the contrary, Arthur D. Little believes that to mitigate this risktelecom operators should participate in alliances when availableand should also promote hybrid Smart Home platforms withapplications close to their core business but also other servicesoffered by external providers. An example is PCCW in HongKong, which has built its digital home solutions around openmodels enabling a whole range of innovative functions fromother players, such as MOOV, Android, etc.Market configuration 2: The Smart Home marketgrows strongly, but with a patchwork of solutionsand standardsIn this second scenario with a patchwork of standards, theecosystem will remain highly fragmented with numerousheterogeneous competitors trying to capture value from theSmart Home market. In this case, which we see actually as anopportunity, operators will be in a position to leverage not onlytheir assets to offer their own solutions, but also to integrateexternal solutions and facilitate the digital life of their customers.By doing so, they would generate new revenue streams and alsoimprove the stickiness of customers to their existing services.

Catching the Smart Home OpportunityConclusionThe Smart Home is a significant growth opportunity for manyplayers including telecom operators, thanks to favorable societaltrends, growing demand and the acceleration of the innovation.Thanks to strategic assets, such as the internet gateway,control of the customer relationship, and sales and supportcapability, telecom operators are well positioned to capturevalue from Smart Home services. Despite the fact that paybackwill materialize in the medium term, they should act now andestablish footholds or they will face a similar fate as whathappened in the smartphone application market.Finally, the future Smart Home needs also to be seen in abroader context than just within the home space. Platformswill also connect the home to various other locations, suchas school, office, shopping malls or cars. This will broaden thetype of actors in the ecosystem, and will give the opportunityto telecom operators to strengthen their central position asthe integrator of Smart Home services. It will be up to them todefine to what extent.To benefit from this coming growth, telecom operators shouldpromote hybrid platforms where they can offer their ownsolutions as well as a myriad of external solutions and positionthemselves as digital life facilitators. 11

ContactsIf you would like more information or toarrange an informal discussion on theissues raised here and how they affect yourbusiness, please contact:AustriaKarim Tagataga.karim@adlittle.comBelgiumJean Fischfisch.jean@adlittle.comChinaJian Xuxu.jian@adlittle.comCzech RepublicDean Brabecbrabec.dean@adlittle.comFranceDidier Levylevy.didier@adlittle.comGermanyMichael Opitzopitz.michael@adlittle.comItalyGiancarlo Agrestiagresti.giancarlo@adlittle.comIndiaSrini azu Matsuokamatsuoka.yoshikazu@adlittle.comArthur D. LittleArthur D. Little, founded in 1886, is a global leader in managementconsultancy; linking strategy, innovation and technology with deepindustry knowledge. We offer our clients sustainable solutionsto their most complex business problems. Arthur D. Little hasa collaborative client engagement style, exceptional peopleand a firm-wide commitment to quality and integrity. Arthur D.Little has successfully completed its Management Buy-Out onDecember 30th, 2011. In its 125th anniversary year, the world’sfirst management consulting firm has once again become a GlobalPrivate Partnership with 100 percent of the ownership of thecompany now held by its partners. The firm has over 30 officesworld-wide. Arthur D. Little is proud to serve many of the Fortune100 companies globally, in addition to many other leading firmsand public sector organizations.For further information please visit www.adl.comCopyright Arthur D. Little 2012. All rights reserved.www.adl.com/SmartHomeKoreaDaesoon Honghong.daesoon@adlittle.comMalaysia & SingaporeThomas Kuruvillakuruvilla.thomas@adlittle.comMiddle EastThomas Kuruvillakuruvilla.thomas@adlittle.comNordic CountriesBo Leneriuslenerius.bo@adlittle.comThe NetherlandsMartijn rlos Abadabad.carlos@adlittle.comSwitzerlandKarim Tagataga.karim@adlittle.comUKStuart Keepingkeeping.stuart@adlittle.comUSAJohn W. Brennanbrennan.john@adlittle.com

Home automation refers to the centralization on a unique user interface of five main home systems: home security, home energy and utility management (smart meters), home motorization (remote control of devices such as alarm systems or thermostats), lighting and entertainment. The

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