PiiSttitRdPromising Strategies To Reduce Gun Violence 7th .

PromisingPi i StStrategiest i tto ReduceR dGun Violence7th Annual Youth ViolencePrevention ConferenceUniversity of Missouri St.St LouisApril, 2008Edmund F. McGarrellDirector and ProfessorSchool of Criminal JusticeMichigan State University

Role of Police & CJS“Crime affects criminal justice. Criminaljustice no affect crime.” (Duffee, 1980)“TheThe police do not prevent crimecrime. This isone of the best kept secrets of modernlife ” (Bayley,life.(Bayley 1994)

National Academy of Sciences“There is strong research evidence that themore focused and specific the strategiesof the police, the more they are tailored toproblems theyy seek to address, thethe pmore effective the police will be incontrolling crime and disorder.”National Academyy of Sciences, Fairness &Effectiveness in Policing, (2004: p. 5)

Problem AnalysisAnalysis allows for the focus of limitedresources on those people, places, andcontexts generating violent crimeOff dOffenderVi iVictimLocation

Approximately 80% ofhomicides occur in anarea where fewer than60,000 people, or 27% ofthe City’s populationpopulation, live.liveHomicides By Carbeat((1991 - 2282 247 237286207 217256252246249232274239 259242266269244253224 234284243263264# Homicides28 - 4121 - 2713 - 206 - 121-50273254Robert J. Duffy

Homicide Rates for Specific Groups0U.S. RateAge 15-29MalesBlacks100200300400500600822.436.3147in Monroein Rochesterin High Crime AreaNote: Each bar is a subset of the one above it.Monroe/Rochester data are based on an average of 50 homicides per year.229264520Young Black men living in Rochester’s HighCrime Crescent have a homicide rate that isabout 65 times that of the nation as a whole.

PPromisingi i GGun ViViolencelRReductiond iInterventions Series of studies suggestive of interventions that mayreduce gun violence Look at common elements– Focused deterrence– StrategicSt t i problemblsolvingl i Put in context Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) Raise set research questions that emerge from theseinterventions

PSN Builds Upon Directed Patrol Focused Gun CrimeP j t ExileProjectE il (Ri(Richmond)hd)Boston Gun Project (Ceasefire)Strategic Approaches to Communityy Initiative (SACSI)()Safety

Directed Police PatrolTargeted patrols in high violent crime areaswith a focus on illegal gun possession Kansas City (Sherman & RoganRogan, 1995; 1996) Indianapolis (McGarrell et al., 2001) PittsburghPitt b h (Cohen & Ludwig, 2003)

Key Findings Significant reductions in gun crime Positive community reaction

Key Questions What is causing impact? Can the results be sustained? What are the key leadership, managerial,and officer behavior components thatsecured community support?

Focused Interventions“There is strong research evidence that themore focused and specific the strategiesof the police, the more they are tailored toproblems theyy seek to address, thethe pmore effective the police will be incontrolling crime and disorder.”National Academyy of Sciences, Fairness &Effectiveness in Policing, (2004: p. 5)

Project Exile Increased federal prosecution for guncrimes MMediadi campaigni tto communicatei tdeterrence message Evidence of reduced ggun crime ((Rosenfeldet al. 2005)

Boston Gun Project Multi-agency teamProblem analysisFocused interventionLever-pullingpg strategygyThreat federal prosecutionLinkage to opportunitiesEvidence of reduced gun crime (Kennedy,Braga et alBraga,al.))

SACSI 10 Cityy initiativeMulti-agency teamyProblem analysisFocused interventionLever-pulling strategyThreat federal prosecutionLinkage to opportunitiesEvidence of reduced gun crime – e.g.,Indianapolis (McGarrell et al., 2006)

SummaryIInterventionttiComponentsDirectedDit d PoliceP liPatrolP j t ExileProjectE ilBostonBt GGunProject – SACSISpecific focus ongun crimeXXXAnalysis local guncrimeGeographicpatternsIndividual criminalhistoriesRobust problemanalysisDeterrence focusXXXStreet-level unication –lever pullingmeetingsSocial support &li k tolinkt opportunitiest itiOrganizationalstructureX?XXXXXPolice drivenU.S. Attorney drivenMulti-agencycollaboration

PSNNational Strategy to Reduce Gun Crime Strategic problem solving Collaborative partnerships Focused interventionsp Federal & local coordinated prosecution Increased federal prosecutiongy Communication strategy Prevention and intervention

Strategic Problem Solving to FocusInterventions“There is strong research evidence that themore focused and specific the strategiesof the police, the more they are tailored toproblems theyy seek to address, thethe pmore effective the police will be incontrolling crime and disorder.”National Academyy of Sciences, Fairness &Effectiveness in Policing, (2004: p. 5)

PSN Implementation Study of initial implementation of PSN suggests that taskforces fall into 3 general categories (based on extent ofpartnerships, federal prosecution, data driven decisionmaking)TypeInteraction d

PSN Impact on Gun Crime ? As first step, series of case studies ofimpact at local level

PSN Case Study EvaluationChallenges National, “full coverage,” program Uneven implementation Larger cities offer treatment and comparisonsites but may have both citywide and targetedprogram components Smaller and medium cities – may be no logicalcomparison site Variation in data availabilityy ((e.g.,g , NIBRS vs.non-NIBRS; outputs/dosage measures)

PSN Comprehensive Case StudiesCriteria for selection: PSN strategy implemented in a “meaningfulfashion”– Evidence of implementation of PSN strategies– Evidence of new & enhanced partnerships– Integration of research partners & researchresearch-basedbasedstrategies– Strategies in operation long enough to havepotentially affected gun crime– Sufficient base rates of gun crime to allowassessment of impact– Regional & demographic variation

PSN Comprehensive Case StudiesEssentially asking – is gun crime beingaddressed in new ways and is thereevidence of impact on levels of guncrime?

Initial PSN Case Studies Middle District Alabama (Montgomery) – ProjectExile Southern District Alabama (Mobile) – ProjectExile DistrictDi t i t MassachusettsMhtt (Lowell)(Lll) – StrategicSt t iProblem Solving(St. Louis) - Strategic Eastern District Missouri (StProblem Solvingg Problem District Nebraska ((Omaha)) – StrategicSolving

Project Exile Model “Smart prosecution” (coordinated federallocal gun crime prosecution screening) Large increase federal prosecution of guncrime Significant media campaign

PSN CCase StStudiesdi – InitialI iti l RResultsltProject Exile Model – MD AL (Montgomery) MMontgomerytwitnesseditd significanti ifitdecline homicide and gun assaults at atitimepropertyt crimeiremainedi d stablet bl(time series)

PSN Case Studies – Initial ResultsProject Exile Model – SD AL (Mobile) Mobile witnessed significantgdecline totalgun crime & violent crime with a gun at atime property crime increased (time series) No change homicide Gunshot wound admissions to traumacenter declined significantly

Strategic Problem Solving Model Multi-agency team Strategic problem solving (integration ofresearch)h) Increase federal prosecution or threat of federalpprosecution Multiple strategies (examples)–––––Smart prosecutionI id t reviewsIncidentiChronic violent offender programsOffender notification meetingsPolice-probation-parole home visits

PSN Case Studies – Initial ResultsStrategic Problem Solving Model – ED MO (St.(StLouis) Violent gun crime and homicide declined intarget areas but also declined in contiguous andcontrol areas Decline may be due to program impact thatgeneralized beyond target area Decline may have been due to some other factoraffecting treatment, control and contiguousareas

PSN Case Studies – Initial ResultsStrategic Problem Solving Model – D MA(Lowell) Gang focused lever pulling 28% reduction in gun assaults Statistically significant reduction andgreater than that observed in other MAcommunities

PSN Case Studies – Initial ResultsStrategic Problem Solving Model – D NE((Omaha)) Monthly firearms offenses declined 20%after implementation PSN (time series) Property crime stable during same period

Summary - PSN Case StudiesTo date, All five sites experienced a statisticallyysignificant decline in gun crime followingimplementation of PSN In four of the five sites, the decline in guncrime was greater than the comparison(either other neighborhoods, cities or withtrend in property crime)

Additional Suggestive Evidence Strategic Problem Solving Model – MD NC(Durham, Greensboro, High Point,Salisbury, Winston-Salem) Highg Point separateptargetg specificpimpactpanalysis Salisbury small NN, low statistical power Three tests (Durham, Greensboro,Winston Salem)Winston-Salem)

PSN Case Studies – Initial ResultsStrategic Problem Solving Model – MD NC Durham – total firearms offenses declinefrom 76.7 per month to 68.9 per month butnot statistically significant Greensboro – statistically significantdecline in total firearms offenses Winston-Salem - statistically significantdecline in total firearms offenses

Additional Suggestive Evidence Chicago (Papachristos, Meares and Fagan) Stockton (Braga) Thus, no claim PSN has reduced gun crime in alljurisdictions, but suggestive evidence that PSNinterventions can have an impact on gun crime

Drug Market Interventions Arise out of problem analyses that linkgun violence to drug markets and ganginvolvement Take a focusedfdeterrence approach Include multiple strategies forcommunicating to high-risk populationsp to link to services & opportunitiespp Attempt

Drug Market Intervention High Point, NCWinston-Salem, NCRaleigh, NCProvidence RIProvidence,Rockford, ILNassau County, NY

Promising PracticesDirected Police PatrolProject ExileBoston Gun Project Strategic ProblemSolvingKansas isPittsburghMobileLowellOmahaChicagoStocktonHigh PointGreensboroWinston-Salem

Promising Practices Some combination of focused deterrence,communication, data-drivendata driven problemsolving, & linkage to opportunities,ppppromisingg in reducinggggun crimeappears

Lingering Research Questions What is happening in the remaining PSNdistricts and other cities where PSN has beenimplemented?– “Compstat” and “Broken Windows” Issue Is the impact shortshort-termterm or sustained?

Lingering Research Questions What is the impact on individual offenders incontrast to neighborhood/community effects?– Indianapolis SACSI Intervention– Indianapolis Lever Pulling Experiment– Kansas City PSN InterventionVs.– Chicago PSN (Impact on Gun Re-offending)– High Point PSN (Reduced re-offending amongmeeting attendees)

Lingering Research Questions Which program components are producingpthe impact? Can we increase the scientific rigor of thetests of these “promising practices?”

SummaryStrategicStt i ComponentsCt Focus on people, networks, places,contexts driving violence Credible & focused deterrence Communication Credible link to social support

PSN Implementation What distinguished symbolic, narrow, and strategicimplementation?TypeInteraction d

SummaryStrategic Components Focus on people,networks,tk places,lcontexts driving violence Credible & focuseddeterrence Communication Credible link to socialsupportOrganizational FoundationsDatadrivenOrganizational& IInterorganizationalRelationshipsLeadership &Commitment

Citations Boston ((Bragag et al., 2001a,b))Indianapolis (McGarrell et al., 2006)Omaha (Hipple et al., forthcoming)Lowell (McDevitt et al., 2007)Chicago (Papachristos et al., 2006)High Point (Lang et al., 2007)Greensboro (Hipple et al., forthcoming)Winston Salem (Hipple et al.,Winston-Salemal forthcoming)Stockton (Braga, 2007)Richmond (Rosenfeld et al., 2005)Montgomery (McGarrell et alal., 2007)Mobile (Hipple et al., forthcoming)St. Louis (Decker et al., 2007)p((Chermak,, 2008))IndianapolisKansas City (WDMO PSN Task Force, personal communication)

the City’s population livethe City’s population, live. 261 241 287 251 # Homicides 28 - 41 21 - 27 13 20 276 272 256 262 297 247 292 286 257 277 282 267 237 227 207 217-6 - 12 1 - 5 0 263 284 266 244 243 252 232 274 246 264 253 224 234 239 242 269 249 259 254 273 RobertJ.Duffy