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Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019IntroductionIntroduction03Highlights05Where Does Residential Price Growth End?06Economic Development in Europe08Comparison of Residential Markets – Housing Development Intensity10Comparison of Residential Property Prices in Selected Countries and Cities15Mortgage Markets in Europe28Annex: Comments on Residential Markets30Contacts40We are pleased to present you the eighth editionof the Property Index, Overview of EuropeanResidential Markets. During its long history theProperty Index has become one of the most importantEuropean real estate publication and has acted asa valuable source for many, whether private or publicinstitutions.Property Index analyses factors influencing thedevelopment of residential markets and comparesresidential property prices in selected Europeancountries and cities.Our goal is to provide you with European residentialmarket data on a regular basis and answer questionson how Europeans live and at what costs.We hope you will find this eighth issue of the publicationinteresting and inspiring for you and for your business.23

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019This year we especially focus ourattention on: Austria (AT); Belgium (BE); Croatia (HR); Czech Republic (CZ); Denmark (DK); France (FR); Germany (DE); Hungary HU); Italy (IT); Latvia (LV); Netherlands (NL); Norway (NO);Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Most presented indicators are on a year-onyear basis and are to some extent alsoinfluenced by geopolitical situation orvarious factors affecting the volume ofsupply and demand.The Property Index was prepared bya proven international and cross-functionalteam of Deloitte professionals in thedevelopment, mortgage and real estatemarkets. This publication has beenprepared using data collected by individualDeloitte offices in selected countries.Highlights22%Dwelling prices, surprisingly,increased by 22% in Prague,which was the largest growthamong all examined capitals.The Property Index capitalises onDeloitte’s extensive knowledge of the realestate and development industry, enablingus to provide you with independent andcredible information.3.8 yearsThe most affordablehousing can be foundnewly in Portugal, whereyou need to save onaverage only 3.8 yearsto buy a new dwelling. Poland (PL);321%Properties in Paris (inside)were on average 321%of the national averageand recorded thereforethe largest difference.A virtually identical figurewas observed in Lisbon(320%). Portugal (PT); Spain (ES); and12,910EUR / sq mParis (inside) was themost expensive cityamong surveyed citieswith a price tag reaching12 910 EUR / sq m. United Kingdom (UK).4,043EUR / sq mDespite close economicconnection within the EU, theresidential market evolveddiversely in particular countries. For the first time Norwaytook a leading position from theUnited Kingdom as the mostexpensive country in our research (4,043 EUR/ sq m).425.3EUR / sq mNewly provided data fromNorway show that rentalhousing is comparativelyexpensive. Oslo, followedby Trondheim occupiedsecond and third placewithin our research with thevalue 25.3 EUR / sq m and21.3 EUR / sq m per monthrespectively after Paris.ItalyHousing prices rose in15 out of the 16 selectedcountries since 2015. Theonly exception was Italy,where dwelling priceshave been droppedconstantly since thebeginning of the financialcrisis.BerlinDespite the current disorders due to rising rentalprices mainly in Berlin,rent levels are lowcompared to otherEuropean cities.5

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Where Does ResidentialPrice Growth End?Another reason may also be that theprice base has always been lower in CEEcountries and now we see an eliminationof price differences and gradual approximation to Western countries. However, itshould be noted that there are still fundamental discrepancies in terms of averagewages, for example, which implies worseconditions for housing affordability.What has been the defining characteristic of theresidential market within Europe in recent years?Undoubtedly, the price growth.Housing prices have been on the rise in15 out of the 16 selected countries since2015. The only exception was Italy, wheredwelling prices have been droppingconstantly since the beginning of thefinancial crisis.The majority of European countries maybe at risk of a future development asThe average annual growth of propertyprices in the EU was 5% in the last threeyears. The dwelling prices in the CzechRepublic, Hungary, Latvia and Portugalgrew twice as fast as the EU average. Dueto the significant rise in property prices inthose countries, the possibility of homeownership tends to diminish. The culpritis the consequences of the debt crisis, orthe poor and slow administration of thestate building authorities, which hampersthe construction of new real estate. Thisreduces the supply that eventually fails tomeet the high demand for housing.a result of expansionary monetary policyfrom the European Central Bank (ECB)in the future. If the ECB maintains itsmonetary policy stance further, averagehouse prices will exceed pre-crisis levels.Potential impacts of the real estatebubble on the real economy depend, inpart, on the extent to which rising houseprices are accompanied by rising debtand a construction boom. It is clear thatrapid price growth will have to end once.The House Price Index (HPI) published byEurostat measures price changes of all residential properties purchased by households(flats, detached houses, terraced housesetc.), both new and existing, independentlyof their final use and their previous owners.Only market prices are considered, self-build dwellings are therefore excluded.The land component is included.European UnionFrancePolandDenmarkSpainAustriaCzech RepublicLatviaNetherlandsBelgiumItalyUnited KingdomHungaryCroatiaPortugalNorwayGermanyHouse Price Index (2015 100) – quarterly .0DKNO110.0PLEUBEHRFR105.0100.0IT95.090.02015 Q12015 Q22015 Q32015 Q42016 Q12016 Q22016 Q32016 Q42017 Q12017 Q22017 Q32017 Q42018 Q12018 Q22018 Q32018 Q4Source: Eurostat67

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019from a surplus of EUR 22 billion to a deficitof EUR 25 billion. The unemployment ratedescended from its high of 10.9% in 2013to 6.8% in 2018.EconomicDevelopmentin EuropeFiscal policy in most European countriesremained neutral or tightened in an effortto get closer to the long-term sustainabilityof public finances. General governmentdeficit declined (or surpluses increased) in19 out of 28 EU countries in 2017.Europe still faces geopolitical risks thatcould have an impact on its economy. EUfaces threat of tariffs on exports of carsand car parts to the USA (tariffs on exportsof steel and aluminium were already imposed). Sanctions on Iran lead to higher oilprices that negatively affect EU economy.Sanctions against Russia are still in place.The United Kingdom entered the processof leaving the EU in March 2017 but did notleave yet. The date of departure has beenpostponed to 31st October 2019.The long-term prospects of the EU and theEurozone are expected to be negativelyaffected by the slow growth of total factorproductivity. An aging population will addsome pressure to the labour markets andcould slowdown GDP growth as well. Whilethe average growth in the 10 years beforethe financial crisis (1998–2007) reached2.6%, expected long-term growth incoming years is likely to oscillate between1.5–2.0%.Growth of Real GDP in EU .3%-2%-4%Similarly to other economies the Europeaneconomy was significantly affected by theglobal financial crisis of 2008. It slightlyrecovered during 2010 and 2011 after theresulting recession. However, the EU wasstruck by the debt crisis of some of itsmember states in 2012 and the economywent through another short recession.The last five years were years of moderategrowth. The European economy continuedgrowing in 2018 however, the growth decelerated. GDP in the whole EU-28 grew by2.0%, the Eurozone rose by 1.8%.External conditions were tough as theUS – China and US – EU trade tensionscontinued. The US growth accelerated to2.9% from 2.4% in 2018 despite these tensions. The Chinese economy slightly decelerated from 6.9% to 6.6%. The Japaneseeconomy also decelerated from 1.9% to80.8%. The Russian and Brazilian economycontinued in moderate growth. Because oftough external conditions, the EU economydecelerated from 2.5% to 2.0%. Furtherdeceleration is expected this year.In December 2018, the ECB decided toterminate its asset purchases programs.ECB policy rates remained on their historical lows (deposit rate -0.40%, refinancingrate 0.00%, marginal lending rate 0.25%).Despite termination of asset purchasesprograms, the monetary policy of ECB willremain very accommodative. ECB couldrenew asset purchases programs this yearin response to slowdown of EU economy.The real unit labour costs remained atthe level of the year 2017 (0.56). In 2018imports grew more than exports and consequently the trade surplus of EU 201820192020Source: Eurostat. Forecast: DeloitteThe housing market is usually sensitiveto economic conditions, especially GDPgrowth and interest rates. Correlationbetween lagged GDP growth and houseprices in the EU reached 83% during thelast 10 years. Thus, the expected sluggisheconomic growth is likely to limit inflationin house prices in the coming years. On theother hand, the accommodative monetary policy of the ECB and other centralbanks in the EU will keep interest rates atlow levels and together with the steadilyfalling unemployment rate supporting thehousing market.9

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Comparison of ResidentialMarkets – HousingDevelopment IntensityCompleted DwellingsThe indicator of housing development intensity on the residential market shows numberof completed dwellings per 1,000 citizens ofa given country.Similarly to last year’s edition, the lowesttotal number of completed dwellings hasbeen observed in Latvia. Throughout the2018 only 3,000 dwellings were completedin the country, which is still almost a 100%increase in comparison with 2017.In terms of the highest total number of completed dwellings, France has again made itto the top with more than 459,000 new dwellings constructed. Distantly follows Germanywhere we have recorded an increase of 5.3%in total number of completed dwellings, fromlast year’s 284,000 to 300,000 this year.Initiated DwellingsFrom 10 European countries, which wereobserved both in 2017 and 2018, the average increase of 2.7% of initiated dwellingssignals a positive impulse for housingdevelopment in the future.ted in total). On the other hand the highestintensity could be seen again in France. It hasgone down a bit in comparison to last year,but still reached above 6.8 completions per1,000 citizens.In this year’s edition, an average countryinitiated construction of 3.8 dwellings per1,000 citizens. Netherlands, Germany,Belgium, Poland, Norway and France managed to start more than average per 1,000citizens.The lowest intensity (1.1 initiatedapartment per 1,000 citizens) and totalnumber of initiated dwellings (2,100) wasagain recorded in Latvia, and partiallypredicts possible completions in the futurein the smallest country out of edition’sselection.The highest year-on-year growth in theintensity of initiated dwellings has beenmarked by Belgium, which rose from4.4 initiated dwellings per 1,000 citizenslast year to 5.5 initiated dwellings per 1,000citizens this year.Similarly, Denmark has also risen significantly throughout the 2018 to 17,400 initiated dwellings (up from 11,600 last year).The ranking within the first three countries based on total number of initiatedapartments was identical to ranking withincompleted apartments. France has scoredthe highest (419,000 initiated dwellings),followed by Germany (347,300 initiateddwellings) and Poland (221,900 initiateddwellings).From the local point of view, Poland hasrecorded both, the highest total numberof completed dwellings (184,800) and thehighest intensity of completions (4.81 per1,000 citizens), therefore establishing itselfas a leader in housing development withineastern European countries.Considering the intensity of completeddwellings, the worst performance has beenobserved in Portuguese residential market,where only 1.2 dwelling was completed per1,000 citizens (or 12,300 dwellings comple-Housing Development IntensityIndex of the number of completed dwellings per 1,000 citizensHousing Development IntensityIndex of the number of initiated dwellings per 1,000 .00.00.0LVHUUKNumber of completed dwellings per 1,000 citizensDKCZDENLBETotal number of completed dwellings (th.)Source: National Statistical Authorities, Euromonitor International, calculated by 1.931.55.85.9PLNO419. of initiated dwellings per 1,000 citizensHUNLDEBEFRTotal number of initiated dwellings (th.)Source: National Statistical Authorities, Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte11

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Housing StockThe structure and quality of the housingstock can be generally considered as oneof the indicators of quality of life and regional development.In terms of housing stock saturation, thisyear’s edition is led by Portugal with almost580 dwellings in stock per 1,000 citizens,closely followed by Italy (578 dwellings per1,000 citizens) and France (528 dwellingsper 1,000 citizens). However, the totalhighest number of dwellings is recordedin Germany with more than 42.2 millionapartments in stock.Denmark (459 dwellings per 1,000 citizens,total of 2.67 million dwellings in stock).Based on available data, on of the leastsaturated market while being one of thelargest in size is in the United Kingdom(411 dwellings per 1,000 citizens, 27.35million dwellings total stock).From this year’s selection of countries, theaverage size of housing stock stands atabout 478 dwellings per 1,000 citizens andtherefore only Germany, France, Italy andPortugal have higher than average stocks.The smallest markets in terms of housingstock can be found in Norway(478 dwellings per 1,000 citizens,total of 2.55 million dwellings in stock) andHousing StockNumber of dwellings per 1,000 80.72000PLUKATNumber of dwellings per 1,000 citizensDEFRTotal number of dwellings (mln.)Source: National Statistical Authorities, Euromonitor International, calculated by Deloitte1213

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Comparison of ResidentialProperty Prices in SelectedCountries and CitiesThis edition of Property Index covers datafrom 16 European countries and 46 cities.To harmonise all outcomes, dwelling pricesare calculated in Euros, as such the pricegrowth or fall is influenced by a change inexchange rates.Depreciation or appreciation of nationalcurrencies other than euro are shown inthe chart below. Largest y-o-y differenceaffecting the property value was recorded in Hungary. Fundamentally no y-o-ydifference (0,3%) was recorded by Danishkrone, which is however pegged to theeuro via the ERM II.Euro exchange rates changes, 31. 12. 2018 / 31. 12. 2017( %) euro appreciation, (-%) euro depreciation against a rce: Yahoo Finance1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%15

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Average Transaction Priceof a New Dwelling in Selected CountriesDespite close economic connection withinthe EU, the residential market evolveddiversely in particular countries. For the firsttime Norway took a leading position fromthe United Kingdom as the most expensivecountry in our research (4,043 EUR/ sq m).However, it is worth mentioning that thisis a price for a detached house only as nofurther data was available.Second place went to France, wherethe transaction price of a new dwellingrecorded 4,016 EUR/ sq m. Altough pricesincrease in big cities such as Paris, the tendency in the country is more a decline.The third highest price per sq m wasobserved in the United Kingdom(3,753 EUR / sq m) even despite the pricedecrease (-14,7%) compared to last yeardue to British Pound depreciation.Conversely Portugal was placed on thetail of the ranking list in terms of averagetransaction price (1,088 EUR / sq m).Norway †4,043 EUR/ sq mNAThe highest price growth in 2018 was surprisingly recorded in the Czech Republic,where transaction price of new dwellingsrose by 16.8%. The second positionoccupied Hungary with a price growth of 13.7%, which may be partly attributedto the low price base. In the Netherlandsincreased the transaction price of newdwelling by 9.3%.Latvia1,739 EUR/ sq mNADenmark2,683 EUR/ sq m5.1%To sum up – 9 surveyed countries showedin 2018 a price increase and 3 countriesa price decrease.Netherlands**2,521 EUR/ sq m9.3%United Kingdom3,753 EUR/ sq m-14.7%Germany*3,405 EUR/ sq m5.0%Average Transaction Price of a NewDwelling (EUR/sq m), 2018Annual Change (%)Belgium*2,481 EUR/ sq m4.2%1,000–1,4991,500–1,999France4,016 EUR/ sq m-2.1%2,000–2,4992,500–2,999Czech Republic2,525 EUR/ sq m16.8%Austria2,612 EUR/ sq m2.3%Poland1,370 EUR/ sq m3.8%Hungary1,323 EUR/ sq m13.7%3,000–3,499Italy2,311 EUR/ sq m-1.0%3,500–3,9994,000 Croatia1,547 EUR/ sq mNA*bid price** older dwellings†detached housesSource: National Statistical Authorities,Deloitte data calculations16Portugal1,088 EUR/ sq mNASpain2,133 EUR/ sq m5.1%17

Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Property Index 8th edition, July 2019Average Transaction Price ofa New Dwelling in Selected CitiesAverage Transaction Price of a New Dwelling (EUR/ sq m) and 2018/2017 Marseille3.3%Ile de Rome-1.5%

bid price mortgage rate household rent affordability bid price mortgage rate bid price mortgage rate household mortgage rate affordability dwelling dwelling dwelling rent affordability affordability own housing bid price mortgage rate household rent resident dwelling residential market rental market own .

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