PwC Capital Markets 2020 Changes To The Global Banking .

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Capital Markets 2020Will it change for good?Are capital markets participants and users prepared and capable to reimagine the future, innovateand compete against this still unfolding backdrop?pwc.co.nz/financialservices

ContentsWelcome31 Introduction5Today’s challengesThe future landscape592 Impact of global macro-trends on capital markets123 Potential disruptions264 Priorities for 2020295 Capital market users’ perspectives506 Conclusion54Global instability – the winds of changeRise of state-directed capitalism – regulation reshaping the industryTechnology – an enabler of changeWar for resources – the filling of the gapsProactively manage risk, regulation and capitalEstablish stronger culture and conduct: Change for goodRedefine the business modelStrategically renew the operating modelEnable innovation, and the capabilities to foster itObtain an information advantage15182124313639414548

WelcomeHow relevant will New Zealand be on the global financial stage in five years’ time?From a New Zealand perspective, capitalmarkets in 2020 will look vastly different towhat they do today. Many have predicted ashrinking capital markets landscape and thefall of the traditional financial powerhouses,such as London, and this would not bodewell for New Zealand.We have a different vision for 2020 – onewhere the traditional financial centresenhance their positions as the world seekscertainty around questionable geopoliticalenvironments. Given New Zealand’sstanding, this should ensure we are notwiped off the global stage. However, thelandscape where New Zealand banksoperate will undergo major change as aresult of innovation, customer requirements,technology and the emerging shadowbanking system.This paper covers the future of capitalmarkets, a subject of increasing focus sincethe financial crisis. The vitality of capitalmarkets is critical if the world is to returnto an environment of sustainable economicgrowth. Moreover, effective capital marketsare crucial to the allocation of credit andinvestment.Looking to 2020, capital markets will playan increasingly important role in providingeverything from financing to the world’smost innovative companies to generatingthe investment returns needed to support anageing population in the developed world.Our survey of top capital markets executivesfrom around the globe clearly demonstratesthat leaders believe it is important to havea better understanding and a more clearlyarticulated vision of their place in the capitalmarkets industry in 2020 than they do today.Furthermore, other stakeholders such aspolicymakers and regulators also need todevelop the right balance between investorand system protection as well as the need formarkets to function freely and efficiently inorder to support economic growth.As a capital markets participant,understanding the future is imperative.Otherwise, how can you best determinewhether to invest in a certain area, grow orreduce your footprint in a country, or launchor discontinue a particular product, businessor strategy? As a user of capital markets, youwill need to develop a view of the types ofproducts and financing options which areavailable to support your business.We hope you find our report insightful.Please feel free to reach out to me or yourusual financial services partner to startthe conversation.Sam ShuttleworthPwC New ZealandBanking and Capital Markets LeaderT: 64 9 355 8119M: 64 21 976 949E: sam.shuttleworth@nz.pwc.com

IntroductionWe believe that capital markets in 2020 will look very different than theydo today. Based on feedback from clients, many have gloomily predicteda shrinking capital markets landscape, overregulation and the fall oftraditionally powerful financial centres such as London and New York.However, we have a different vision for 2020 – one of a new equilibrium.This new equilibrium consists of a traditional financial axis of powerfurther solidifying their positions at the top and the world seeking stabilityand predictability in the context of riskier and more uncertain geopoliticalsituations. In addition, much of the landscape where financial institutionsoperate will change significantly. This change will come from economic andgovernment policies, innovation, operational restructuring, technology, fromsmarter and more demanding clients, companies harnessing powerful dataand from continued growth of the shadow banking system.As global interconnectivity and ubiquitousaccess to financial markets increase, we seea world where well-functioning, deep capitalmarkets are needed more than ever. Industryleaders must address the continuallychanging market forces and prove that theycan operate within this new equilibrium,which includes justifying their social utility.Participants and users of capital marketswill need to choose what posture to adoptagainst this shifting landscape – whether tobe a shaper of the future or a fast follower.To restore public confidence and positionbusinesses for long-term success, they willneed to take a leadership role in shaping thenew equilibrium – whether by helping drivethe creation of new utilities, or by taking thelead on transforming entrenched businessesand operating models. Staying the same willnot be an option. Consequently, we believethat the winners in 2020 and beyond willneed to relentlessly execute against today’simperatives, to radically innovate, and totransform in order to meet the client andindustry needs of the future.Today’s challengesThe challenges for capital markets playersare vast and include pressures from clients,stakeholders and regulators. Despite thisdifficult environment, 84% of surveyedexecutives indicated that they feel somewhator fully prepared for the challenges withinthe industry, although many players arestruggling to meet more stringent risk andcapital requirements while maintainingacceptable levels of profitability. Users ofcapital markets face a number of their ownchallenges – from finding yield in a period ofpervasively low interest rates to adhering tocomplex regulations that they had not beensubject to before. Meanwhile, incumbentand emergent financial market utilities(FMUs) are finding their places within thenew capital markets landscape and needto reach sufficient economies of scale tooperate effectively over the long-term. Thispoint of view is consistent with that of oursurveyed executives who cite top challengesranging from increasing client profitability(36%) and attracting and retaining talentedemployees (33%), to adapting to newtechnologies (33%).PwC Capital Markets 2020 5

At the same time, improving clientrelationships is a more fundamentalchallenge than it has been in the past. Oursurvey indicated that 31% of capital marketsexecutives view retaining existing clients asone of their top challenges during the nextfive years. It is not enough to simply fulfilimmediate client needs. Backed by newtechnology, more information and growingconfidence, clients will be more demandingand more resistant to the status quo. Assuch, capital markets participants will needto better understand what clients expect ofthem and how they wish to interact withtheir firms. Capital markets participantsrecognise the need to enhance their clientservice offering and as many (56%) cited thisas their top investment priority.Capital markets institutions today facedifficulties ensuring individuals actappropriately and in the best interests oftheir clients. Due to misaligned incentivestructures and weak cultural values,businesses have struggled to live up to theirfiduciary responsibilities and significantreputational damage and distrust hasresulted. Establishing a strong culture andconduct is essential to correcting theseconflicts of interest and to restoring publicconfidence. Fundamentally however, thisposes a challenge to organisations as only afew are expected to succeed by 2020. Eightin ten executives believe it could take up tothree years to strengthen their organisationalculture. Despite the challenges, theimperative to act remains as culture is now6 PwC Capital Markets 2020seen as a critical component of success, notonly to ensuring regulatory compliance butto remaining competitive with clients. Morethan 90% of our survey respondents believethat clients will gravitate towards firms thathave the highest ethical standards.Complying with growing and changingregulations remains a significant challenge,as reported by 19% of executives. Capitalmarkets participants are still struggling toget ahead of regulation and to develop aproactive stance with their regulators. Thebottom line is that regulatory developmentsare profoundly changing operations, marketsand cost structures. So who benefits? Oursurvey participants believe that globalbanks will benefit the most from proactivelyaddressing these changes – likely due totheir ability to leverage scale to manage thecost and complexity. Responses suggest alsothat smaller banks (community, regional,credit unions) and broker-dealers will bethreatened the most.Executives are highly concerned by thethreat posed by shadow banking playerssuch as crowd funders and peer-to-peerlenders. Seventy percent believe they posea moderate to severe threat to traditionalbanks, 20% believe they present innovativepartnership opportunities and the remaining10% believe that non-traditional playersonly pose a threat to those with inferiortechnologies. Our survey participants seethis threat coming from disparate areaswithin the industry’s ecosystem (i.e.distribution channels, payments, and assetmanagement/ brokerage systems). Finally,16% of industry players believe that thisshadow banking world may be set to expandbeyond its current 25% market share offinancial assets and two-thirds of executivesexpect that shadow banking assets will showflat to moderate growth by 2020.Executives are divided over who will be theprimary beneficiaries of overcoming thechallenges ahead. Nearly half of respondentsbelieve that several large, leading sellside participants will be the market sharewinners in 2020. However, a third see largeinstitutions capturing only half of the marketshare or less, and the remaining 18% believethe market will further consolidate with onlya few significant players.Figure 1: As per the Financial Stability Board (FSB), shadow banking assetsaccounted for 25% of the global financial assets in 2013 (at approximatelyUSD 70 trillion up from USD 26 trillion a decade earlier). By 2020, do you thinkshadow banking assets will be:55% or more of globalfinancial assets0%45% to less than 55% of globalfinancial assets0%35% to less than 45% of globalfinancial assets16%25% to less than 35% of globalfinancial assets66%Less than 25% of globalfinancial assets18%0%10%Base: (261)Source: PwC Capital Markets 2020 Survey20%30%40%50%60%70%

Figure 2: What do you expect to be your organisation’s top three challengesthrough 2020?1Figure 3: What are your organisation’s top three investment prioritiesthrough 2020?236%Increasing profitability of clients56%Enhancing customer serviceImpact of new technologies33%Filling talent gapsAttracting and retaining talented employees33%New product development39%35%New market entrants31%Implementing new technologyRetaining existing clients31%Regulatory compliance27%Product rationalisation27%Digital transformation28%R&D and innovation23%Product developmentRegulatory compliance19%Combating internal fraudIncreasing frequency of cyber threats19%New M&A/joint ventures/strategic alliancesAttracting new clients2%Inadequacy of basic infrastructure2%0%10%Base: (261)(1) Please note that executives were able to respond with their top three choices.Source: PwC Capital Markets 2020 Survey15%13%8%0%6%Macroeconomic factors16%Increasing product usage14%Demands from shareholders22%Entering new markets18%Customers’ loss of trust in their financial institutions31%20%30%10%20%30%40%50%60%40%Base: (261)(2) Please note that executives were able to respond with their top three choices.Source: PwC Capital Markets 2020 SurveyPwC Capital Markets 2020 7

Figure 4: Which of the following scenarios do you believe to be the most likely to occur through 2020?Sell-side dominance spectrumFew, very large sell-sideparticipants capturemarket share1Several leading largesell-side participantscapture market share49%Large sell-sideparticipants captureroughly half of availablemarket share2Large sell-sideparticipants capture aminority share of themarket3Large sell-sideparticipants capture nomarket share for capitalmarkets products4528%18%5%Scenario 1Source: PwC Capital Markets 2020 Survey8 PwC Capital Markets 2020Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 40%Scenario 5

The future landscapeThe demands of this new equilibriumwill require businesses to transform.Technology and straight-through processing(STP) are rapidly morphing from beingexpensive challenges to becoming criticalto-success components that create clientvalue and enable efficiency. Meanwhile,both non-traditional players and regionalbroker-dealers (many with little legacyinfrastructure) are challenging theestablished order by supplying capital andbecoming leaders in product innovation.To ensure that capital markets in 2020 areable to function efficiently and freely toprovide financing to corporations and returnsto investors, both participants and users willneed to take on a leadership role within thecapital markets ecosystem. Being reactiveto regulators, public opinion and marketidiosyncrasies is no longer an option.Participants, as well as users, need to addressthe reputational damage that the financialservices (FS) sector has suffered througha fundamental transformation of conductand culture. Risk, regulation and capital allneed to be managed holistically – taking intoaccount implications to business prioritiesand operating constraints. Meanwhilethe business model needs to be refocusedto emphasise the clients and their needs.Given the business strategy, the operatingmodels should be re-engineered to enablesimplification and reduction of costs.All these changes cannot happen in a silo ofan individual organisation. Collaboration willbe crucial to extend reach and capabilities,especially as many players are simplifyingand refocusing themselves around a coreset of products, customers and geographies.For example, utilities that have started toarise in recent months, bringing togetherparticipants, users and technology vendors,are an illustration of players realising thecritical role of partnerships. To drive thesuccess of these joint ventures, there willneed to be real and embracing industryleadership among some of the keyparticipants and users of capital markets.Before we continue advocating for thechanges that must occur, we need to takea step back to understand the potentialcomposition of the new equilibrium. We needto consider that between now and 2020 thereis a possibility of certain events happeningthat could have a substantial impact onthe future trajectory of the capital marketsindustry. The following are just a handful ofscenarios to consider: A s the full consequences of new capital,liquidity and other measures emerge,firms realise that new regulation isrestricting the ability to generateprofitable business. Negative impact oneconomic growth also becomes apparent.As a result governments consider the causeof economic stagnation. If regulation canbe demonstrably shown to be the cause,the regulatory tide may begin to recede,with rules loosened at both global andlocal levels.1 Bank of International Settlements (http://www.bis.org)PwC Capital Markets 2020 9

A crippling global cyber attack willshut down global markets for someperiod of time, prompting a newround of government interventionsand unprecedented focus on cybercrime, terrorism and their perpetrators,including state actors. From a trustperspective, a series of cyber attackson systemically important FMUs wouldhave harmful consequences for capitalmarkets participants. Depending upon theperpetrators, this could lead to a seriousfragmentation of the global financialsystem, which is already underway aswe speak. T he majority of the technology andoperational infrastructure will beoperated not by the banks but by financialtechnology (FinTech) companies,outsourcers and industry utilities (bothbank and publicly owned), bringingboth new management and regulatorychallenges, along with cost and efficiencybenefits. A large macro and idiosyncratic eventthat hurts global economies will cause thefailure of a SIFI or FMU, prompting a reevaluation of systemic risk concentrationas well as measures to manage these risks. A s governments meet mounting resistanceto austerity measures (designed to addresssovereign debt payment shortcomings),key central bankers will agree to toleratemultiple years of higher inflation in order10 PwC Capital Markets 2020to erode the real value of the debt aswell as wages, wreaking havoc on capitalmarkets. This will eventually lead toan imposition of even harsher austeritymeasures to prevent hyperinflation andpanic in a number of G20 countries. A combination of reduced bank-lendingcapacity, the unprecedented need to buildurban infrastructure and the requirementsof investors to earn greater returns willfuel a new capital markets boom and helprevive securitisation markets, as localfinancial institutions and capital basescannot support this activity on their own. A convergence of old-age populationgrowth and rising healthcare costsvis-à-vis the lowering of uninsuredrates in Western economies will drivecapital markets innovation, as insurancecompanies and governments look fornew ways to offset risk. Combined withthe growing need to address unfundedliabilities (e.g. pension, etc.), investmentbanks will lead the development of newand creative investor-based solutions tofund these challenges. T he overregulation of financial marketswill stimulate significant additionalgrowth in the shadow banking system,which will further magnify growth formonoline finance companies, hedge funds,private equity firms and other buy-sideplayers. Traditional financial institutionswill lose share to non-traditional players.

Within shadow banking, competition willmount and the classic result will unfold:risk will be mispriced, poor decisions willbe made, and as a result debt will accrueat an accelerating pace. This will lead toanother series of failures and potentialgovernment intervention and regulationof the sector.Given the transformation that is occurring,banking and capital markets executiveswill need to understand how global trendsimpact the industry in order to developtheir winning strategy. They realise theimportance of having a view of where theindustry will be in 2020. A crippling globalcyber attack, new regulations restricting theability to generate profits, and/or a largemacro idiosyncratic risk that hurts globaleconomies are thought to be the more likelyscenarios, as indicated by the executives inour survey, and these may alter the industry’scurrent trajectory. What is absolutely clear,given the wide range of potential outcomes,is that developing an analysis of the impactsof potential future scenarios and theirlikelihoods will be essential.In Section 2, we address these questionsand concerns, and consider how globalmacro-trends will impact the industry. Figure 5: Top five scenarios survey participants saw as being most likely to occur1st2nd3rd4th5thA crippling global cyber attackNew regulation restricting ability togenerate profitable businessesLoss of market share tonon-traditional playersA large macro idiosyncratic risk that hurtsglobal economiesHigh inflation due to central bank policiesSource: PwC Capital Markets 2020 SurveyPwC Capital Markets 2020 11

Impact of globalmacro-trends oncapital marketsEnvisioning the future of capital markets – like forecasting the winning andlosing stocks of the equity indices – is an extremely arduous task. So whenwe began thinking about the industry in 2020, we first had to characterisethe current trends and transformations occurring globally. It was obviousto ground our assessment in the global macro environment. Additionally,we leveraged PwC’s extensive proprietary research and the Capital Markets2020 survey to help shape our perspective. Finally, using PwC’s Project BlueFramework, we envisioned potential scenarios and disruptors that could shiftthe industry off its current path. We then leveraged the global macro-trendsto shape and structure our perspective on capital markets in 2020.It is highly likely that the trends identified will be the driving forces behindany changes in the capital markets industry. This context should serve as aguide, for both capital market providers and users to navigate the unevenlandscape of tomorrow.12 PwC Capital Markets 2020

Four global macro-trends will be crucialin shaping the new equilibrium for capitalmarkets in 2020: global instability, the riseof state-directed capitalism, technologyand War for resources. Beginning with thistop-down perspective not only helps tobetter understand where capital marketswill be in 2020, but also to structure theexpected microdynamics and scenarios forthe future, which we describe later in thispaper. Furthermore, it should be noted thatthe drivers of these trends range from theregulatory environment, fiscal pressures,and political and social unrest, but theimpact while far-reaching, affects users andparticipants at a fundamental level.1 Global instability – the windsof change A polarised world, with its tensionsand fragmentations, will create morebalkanised capital markets, reshapingparticipant business models and creatingopportunities for new players (e.g. usersof capital markets) to evolve their roleswithin the ecosystem.2 Rise of state-directedcapitalism – regulationreshaping the industry3 Technology – an enabler ofchange Technology will be the disruptive force forthe next five years, permeating innovationand change. We will see it as a disruptiveenabler of new products, services,business models and operating structures,as well as a catalyst for the entry of newplayers which we would not have seen justfive years ago.4 War for resources – the fillingof the gaps Scarcity of resources is of paramountimportance for the next half century,contributing to future geopoliticaltensions. Capital markets will help toalleviate some of these tensions through areallocation of resources to where they aremost needed.In the following section we navigate thetrends above in depth and we considerscenarios relevant to the capital marketsindustry in 2020. As mentioned, PwC’sproprietary Project Blue framework hashelped guide us in identifying the key themesand drivers of change within capital markets. Through 2020, the consequences oftoday’s policies and regulations will leadto a more fragmented and regionalisedfinancial markets ecosystem. Players willneed to adapt to understand and navigatelocal regulations.PwC Capital Markets 2020 13

AdaptGlobal instabilityRegulatory environmentFiscal pressuresPolitical and social unrestDemographicchange Population growthdiscrepancies Ageing populations Changing family structures Belief structuresTechnologicalchange Disruptive technologiesimpacting FS Digital and mobile Technological and scientificR&D and innovation Urbanisation Global affluence Talent Changing customerbehaviours – social media Attitudes to FIs Economic strength Trade FDI Capital balances Resource allocation PopulationRise of state-directedcapitalism State intervention Country/city economicstrategies Investment strategies SWFs/development banksWar for naturalresources* Oil, gas and fossil fuels Food and water Key commodities Ecosystems Climate change andsustainabilitySocial and behaviouralchangePlanMany industry professionals(particularly in the West) arefocused on adapting to globalinstability; however, the market ischanging and opportunity existsfor those who see it.Figure 6: Project Blue – Framework and impact on banking landscapeProject Blue FrameworkProject BlueframeworkRise and interconnectivityof the emerging markets(SAAAME)* Primary impact on capital markets and commercial banks, but with secondary and tertiary impacts on retailconsumers14 PwC Capital Markets 2020Project Blue draws on the experience of thePwC global network and has been developedthrough interaction with FS leaders aroundthe world. It provides a framework to helpindustry executives organise their assessmentof a world in flux, debate the implications fortheir business, rethink their strategies and,if necessary, reinvent their organisations.Seeing the future clearly, being first to adaptstrategies and business models and breedinga culture that shapes, rather than reacts to thechanging business environment will be thebuilding blocks of a sustainable competitiveadvantage in the future.As such, the Project Blue framework (seeFigure 6 opposite) considers the major trendsthat are reshaping the global economy andtransforming the behaviour of consumers,businesses and governments. These arethe fundamental underlying drivers, butbusiness opportunities may be defined by acombination of these trends.This proprietary framework has helpedguide us in identifying the key themes anddrivers of change within capital markets. Thegeneral framework makes sense of the capitalmarkets world through seven influentialmacro themes or drivers of change. Althougheach trend is important, for discussion herewe have picked the four that have shaped ourthinking the most when it came to the futureof capital markets. Where we think the trendsare too uncertain to decipher, we explore thepotential sources of disruption and leave youwith leading questions to consider as youprepare for 2020.

Global instability –the winds of changeLet us start off our discussion with whatwe believe is highly probable in the worldof capital markets through 2020; there willbe quite a bit of uncertainty, instability andvolatility, both in capital markets, and inthe world at large. Over two-thirds of oursurveyed respondents agree or strongly agreethat there will be increased instability inthe capital markets over the next five years.To date this instability has been primarilydue to the aftermath of the Financial Crisisof 2008–2009 and more recently, due tothe significant drop in oil prices. Movingforward we see macro-geopolitical trendsand the increasing use of financial marketaccess as a policy instrument contributingto future instability. An overwhelmingmajority of executives in our survey (93%)believe there will be continued geopoliticaltensions through 2020 and countries suchas Russia, Iran, Syria and the Middle Eastregion could pose the greatest risk globally.We believe that four structural factors willbe particularly important in driving globalinstability through 2020: Continued geopolitical tensions – theconflicts between sovereign nations willcontinue to rise, heightening the riskthat certain countries will be restrictedor entirely cut off from access to capitalmarkets and financial infrastructure. Evolution of severely balkanisedregulation – the implications ofregulation and their divergence acrossregions are only beginning to beunderstood; the full impact on the globalreal economy will be felt over the next fiveyears or so. Evolution of fiscal policy – manygovernments will inevitably be forcedto abandon fiscal stimulus programmesand raise interest rates, potentiallyundermining fragile stability andthrowing markets into a state of volatility. Political and social unrest – a range offactors including fiscal austerity, scarcityof resources, corruption, social mediaand religious conflict will continue tochallenge existing political structures,contributing to global economic andmarket instability.Through the following scenarios, wewill explore the transformations that arelikely to occur within the capital marketsecosystem – to capital markets participants(e.g. broker-dealers, custodians, and marketutilities) and to users (e.g. hedge funds,mutual funds and other buy-side players).In many cases volatility and instability willcreate an impetus for the transformation ofplayer roles and business models, creatingopportunities for some and challenges forothers. In light of these considerations, webelieve that the nature of the capital marketsecosystem will be reshaped in the followingways: In the short- to medium-term, capitalmarkets players will continue toexperience staccato-like volatility, asvarious markets undergo surges andretreats. Subdued average economicgrowth and government-imposed lowinterest rates have resulted in globalinvestors desperately seeking alpha –chasing ‘flavour of the day’ instruments,and then abandoning them just as quickly.Both institutional and retail investorshave recently increased risk exposuresand shifted more assets to alternatives.The early 2015 drop in oil prices has beenanother source of volatility and sovereignstress and is likely to continue for theforeseeable future. If some of these assetclasses or specific governments themselvesexperience troubles, sovereigns, withlooming fiscal pressures, may havedifficulties in softening the blows, giventhat interest rates are at an all-time lowand sovereign debt is at historic highs. Given continued geopolitical tensions,capital markets participants and userswill need to be vigilant regardingsovereign risks. Over the past few yearswe have seen numerous examples ofspikes in sovereign risk, ranging fromthe Greek debt crisis to the United Statesflirting with a technical default. Thedeveloping world has not been immuneeither, stricken in some places by internalunrest and in others by cross-bordertensions. Our survey participants agreePwC Capital Markets 2020 15

Global instability –the winds of change(continued)2 Based on a ratio of domestic market capitalisation ofstock exchanges of New York and London and globalmarket capitalisation3 Global systemically important banks4 Domestic systemically important banks16 Pw

PwC New Zealand Banking and Capital Markets Leader T: 64 9 355 8119 M: 64 21 976 949 E: sam.shuttleworth@nz.pwc.com. Introduction PwC Capital Markets 2020 5 As global interconnectivity and ubiquitous access to financial markets increase, we see a wo

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