How To Increase The Deployment Of SAF With CORSIA
How to increase the deploymentof SAF with CORSIAISCC Stakeholder Meeting: Decarbonisation of the AviationSectorRobert BoydAssistant Director, Aviation Environment#IATAMediaDaysand 25 NovemberVirtualMeeting: 3rd23December20202020- 2-5pm CET
CORSIA: Is SAF relevant?ICAO Assembly 2013: Agreement todevelop a Marketbased-mechanismICAO Assembly 2016:Decides to implementa GMBM in the form ofthe Carbon Offsettingand Reduction Schemefor InternationalAviation (CORSIA)June 2018: First editionof SARP (Annex 16, VolIV) adopted by ICAOCouncilFrom 2019: Airlinesbegin collecting andreporting fuel data forbaseline calculation2021CORSIA commences(88 States havevolunteered)
Passenger volumes do not recover 2019 levels until 2024Does the difficult outlook impact SAF?Source: IATA/Tourism Economics, Air Passenger Forecasts, July 2020 updateEconomics
This year’s IATA AGM resolution shows airlines’continuous commitment to fight climate changeDespite the catastrophic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on theindustry, the IATA AGM:REAFFIRMS the strong commitment of IATA member airlines torespond to the climate challengePLEDGES to§§half the industry’s 2005 net CO2 emissions by 2050explore pathways to reach net zero emissionsURGES governments to support the transition to Sustainable AviationFuels and avoid cost-ineffective instruments such as ticket or carbontaxes#IATAMediaDays 23 and 25 November 2020
The game-changer is Sustainable Aviation FuelsSustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are the only currentviable and scalable solution to aviation’s climatechallenge:#IATAMediaDays 23 and 25 November 2020§SAF will only be used if it comes from sustainablesources, e.g. used cooking oil, waste and residues,(inc municipal waste / waste gases), non-food crops,salt-water plants§SAF cuts life-cycle emissions by up to 80%§SAF is a “drop-in” fuel, i.e. can be used immediately,without adaptations to the aircraft engine§SAF has already been used in 300,000 commercialflights§There is enough SAF feedstock to meet aviation’sneeds in 2050 – but this must be sustainable.§SAF must scale up and FAST!
CORSIA: There are two ways for an airline tomeet its obligationPurchasing eligibleemissions units perthe final offsettingrequirements.Use of CORSIA Eligible Fuel (CEF)This includes: CORSIA sustainableaviation fuel and CORSIA lowcarbon aviation fuel.
Accounting of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF)The emissions reductions that an operator can claim from sustainable aviation fuels will beproportional to the life cycle emissions benefits of the alternative fuels used.Claims are based on mass of SAF according to purchasing and blending recordsCertified by a CORSIA Approved Sustainability Certification SchemeEmissions reduction 3.16 GHG benefitEmission factor for Jet A-1EXAMPLE:Emissions (Fuel used * Combustion EF factor) (SAF * Emissions reduction factor * Combustion EF) CO2A. (10 tonnes * 3.16) (zero SAF * ERF) 31.6 tonnes CO2B. (8 tonnes * 3.16) (2 tonnes SAF * 20% * 3.16) 26.54 tonnes CO2
How to measure sustainability?(Sustainability criteria for SAF under CORSIA)SustainabilityCertificationScheme eTheme 1-7Theme 8-10Theme 11-121. Minimum GHG reductionachievement8. Human and labor rights11. Local and socialdevelopment2. Carbon Stock9. Land use rights and landuse3. Water10. Water use rights4. Soil5. Air6. Conservation7. Waste and Chemicals12. Food SecurityNo assessment by SCS
Scale up and Policy:1. Industry direction- Waypoint 20502. EU Policy- ReFuelEU3. ICAO- LTAG
Waypoint 2050Charting a course for 2050www.aviationbenefits.org 10
Waypoint 2050Development of the analysisExperts in five working groups developedforecasts and likely pathways Traffic forecastingTTechnology developmentsOOperations and infrastructureFSustainable aviation fuelMOffsetting (market-based measures)Each of these generated many hundreds ofindividual pathways and possibilities. The most likelyscenarios were explored. The impact of the Covid-19shutdown on air traffic was included in July 2020.These were developed into a set of consolidatedscenarios to meet the industry goalScenario 0Scenario 1Scenario 2Industry2050goal325 Mt CO2Scenario 3When is net-zeropossible, globally?Experts took into account the state of technology research;timeframe (i.e. can new technologies go through certification andentry-into-service in time?); political considerations (governmentssetting goals and helping achieve them); investment likelihood.www.aviationbenefits.org 11
Waypoint 2050: consolidated scenariosScenario 2 : aggressive sustainable fuel deploymentIndustry prioritises investment in sustainable aviation fuel overtechnologyTraffic growthCTechnologydevelopmentsT3Operations andinfrastructureimprovementsO2Sustainableaviation fuelF3Offsets (or othercarbon mitigationoptions)IFNEEDEDCentral scenario: 3.0%CAGR 2019-2050New airframeconfigurations withsubstantialaerodynamicsperformance such asblended wing bodyMid-rangeimprovements andairline load factorimprovementsBackcast of what isrequired (around 1,100Mt CO2 reduction) tomeet the goal: a rangeof 350-450 Mt of SAFwith a 77-100%emissions reductionfactor by 2050If required to addressany remainingemissions above the2050 goalwww.aviationbenefits.org 12
EU SAF Policy: ReFuelEUOutlook for SAF policy in Europe: ContextDecember 2019:Green DealAnnouncedApril 2020:ReFuelEU InceptionImpact AssessmentAugust – October 2020:ReFuelEU ConsultationDecember 2020:Legislative Proposal2021Co-decisionprocedure
The Future: ICAOThe Future: CAEPThe Future: IndustryICAO Long-Term Goal(A41) in 2022The Fuels Task Group(Technology/Production/Policy) will produce 2035SAF forecasts before theend of the CAEP/12 cycle(2022).Regional roadmapsConference on AviationAlternative Fuel (before2025)Possible that aquantitative declaration isagreed by StatesEnergy TransitionsPolicies - ReFuelEU(Sustainable Aviation UK) / Jet ZeroCouncil)Industry targets:-1.5% efficiency-CNG, 2020-50% decrease by 2050,relative to 2005WayPoint 2050 roadmapClean Skies for Tomorrow(WEF)
QuestionsRobert BoydAssistant Director, Aviation Environmentboydr@iata.org
The game-changer is Sustainable Aviation Fuels § SAF will only be used if it comes from sustainable sources, e.g. used cooking oil, waste and residues, (incmunicipal waste / waste gases), non-food crops, salt-water plants § SAF cuts life-cycle emissions by up to80% § SAF is a “drop-in” fuel, i.e. can be used immediately,
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