2021 Market Outlook 2021 Global Real Estate Outlook .
2021 Market Outlook2021 Global RealEstate Outlook:Recovery,Re-Pricing andReflationaryFundamentals2021 will likely mark the beginning ofthe next new real estate market cycle asthe pick-up in economic growth beginsto flow more broadly through to realestate fundamentals, which will continueto recover at different speeds by sector.2021 will hopefully and likely be the yearof Recovery vs Recession, Vaccine vs Virusand Reflation vs Deflation. Early cycleinvesting will require discerning investorsto adopt a dual strategy that comprisesincome growth opportunities that leveragethe acceleration in economic activity andsecular tailwinds, along with deeper valueopportunities that arise from expectedre-pricing due to cyclical and structuralheadwinds. Given the depth and timing ofthis recovery will be more uneven acrossregions, cities, property types and subsectors, investing opportunities are going tobe more differentiated. Successful investorswill need to be able to identify the bestrisk-adjusted opportunities across divergentglobal markets and have the local expertiseto manage the interplay between macrotrends and local market dynamics.REAL ASSETS REAL ASSETS INVESTING TEAM
2021 MARKET OUTLOOKEntering the Next Phase of theV-shaped Economic Recovery;Regional Differences PersistIn 2021, the global economy will enterthe next phase of the V. According toMorgan Stanley Research, global GDPwill return to its pre-COVID path(i.e., what it would have been absentthe COVID-19 shock) by 4Q21. Inthe near term, growth will continue tobe constrained by lockdown measures,predominately in the U.S. and Europe,but will likely rebound from 2Q onwardsas vaccines are rolled out to the broaderpopulation which will help drive a morecomplete reopening of economies aroundthe world.2021 global growth of 6.4% is expected(following a contraction of 3.4%in 2020)1 to be driven by a globalsynchronous recovery, with developedand emerging markets growing togetherin unison for the first time since 2017,albeit at different speeds and trajectories.Asia will continue to experience afaster macro recovery due to strongergovernment intervention during thelockdown and normalization periods andaccelerated demand for exports as globalgrowth returns. The U.S. is expectedto rebound strongly due to the newlyenacted 900B of fiscal stimulus and theexpectation that additional stimulus willbe passed under the new Administration.This, combined with renewed privatesector risk appetite and acceleration inconsumer activity as the 1.4T in excesssavings begins to be drawn-down,2 willfuel the recovery. While, similar to otherDISPLAY 1GDP ForecastsReal GDP, %YOY129.086.445.04.15.3 5.53.95.42.4 e 2020 2021U.K.JapanChina 2022Source: Morgan Stanley Research, data as of December 28, 2020.All forecasts are subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to changes in marketor economic conditions.cycles, the economic recovery in Europewill likely be more protracted due to themore structured and less dynamic natureof their underlying economies and morepronounced demographic challenges.Different speeds of economic recoveryand divergent underlying regional growthdrivers will continue to impact marketsand sectors differently around the world.Low Interest Rates Return ofInflation Attractive Environmentfor CRE InvestingAs the economic recovery accelerates,Morgan Stanley Research believes thatinflation will pick up, predominately inMorgan Stanley Research, as at December 30, 2020.Ibid.3Morgan Stanley Research, as at December 28, 20204Morgan Stanley Research, as at December 30, 2020.5Federal Reserve, as at December 30, 2020.1225.94.4MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT REAL ASSETSthe U.S., rising to 2% by the end of 2021and 2.5% in 2022 vs 1.2% in 2020.3Higher inflation will be driven by theunprecedented amount of fiscal stimulus(23% of GDP4) and monetary policyaccommodation (balance sheet expansionof 3.3T5 since March 2020). This reflationscenario would likely lead to acceleratedrental growth driven by increasing occupierdemand. Given the new Fed framework,interest rates will likely only increase onceinflation exceeds the 2% target for anextended period of time. This suggests thateven with higher inflation, rates may staylow, keeping downward pressure on yields,leading to stronger real estate returns.
2021 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK: RECOVERY, RE-PRICING AND REFLATIONARY FUNDAMENTALSIncreased Transaction Volumein 2021 Despite ChallengedFundamentals in Some SectorsGiven the low interest rate environment,the weight of capital targeting realestate will likely continue to increase asinvestors search for yield. This outsizedinvestor demand combined with lowlevels of financial distress faced by sellersand corporate occupiers has led to limitedre-pricing so far, outside of retail andhospitality and some secondary assetsand locations.However, as the full impact of the recordlevels of economic contraction flowthrough to real estate fundamentals, it isexpected that the amount of re-pricingmay increase in 2021 and beyond. Thisre-pricing, which will most likely bereflected in lower net operating income(NOI) due to occupier weakness, andnot higher yields, will be bifurcated byregion, sector and asset specifications.The U.S., U.K. and potentially Australiaare expected to see more and quickerre-pricing given the more dynamicnature of their economies, greater levelsof price appreciation pre-COVID andgreater influence of leverage in theircapital markets. Additionally, re-pricingwill likely be more concentrated in retailand hotels, followed by select office andapartment assets and markets, with littleforced activity in industrial. Lastly, therewill likely be elevated risk premiums forcommodity assets that are functionallychallenged or properties with operational,leasing, or repositioning risk due to loweravailability of debt financing.DISPLAY 2U.S. Core Inflation and Rent Growth% Change in PCE Inflation (ex. Food & Energy)Rent Growth % (All 8%2004200720102013PCE Inflation201620192022Rent GrowthSource: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Costar, MSREI Strategy, data as ofSeptember 2020.All forecasts are subject to change at any time and may not come to pass due to changes in marketor economic conditions.Property Sector FundamentalsRemain BifurcatedAcross all regions, property marketfundamentals have been impacted by thepandemic. The industrial sector continuesto exhibit the strongest performanceglobally, spurred by tenant demanddriven by an acceleration in e-commerceand supply chain reconfiguration.Despite elevated unemployment levels,residential sector fundamentals continueto be supported by supply shortagespredominantly at affordable pricepoints, although some regulatory risk isevident in markets where affordability isstretched. The outlook for office sectorfundamentals remains uncertain givenREAL ASSETS competing trends of increasing workfrom home and de-densification, but nearterm weakness in absorption is apparentdue to job losses in most markets. Retailsector fundamentals remain challenged,with e-commerce, tenant bankruptciesand shifting consumer preferences allaccelerating due to COVID-19. Thesetrends have and may continue to lead tomore repricing in the sector. Lastly, thehotel sector faces cyclical and secularheadwinds from the economic downturnand significant pullbacks in tourismand business travel, which will likelynegatively impact sector fundamentals forseveral years.MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT3
2021 MARKET OUTLOOKIndustrialSIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IN PRICING. LAST MILE TO TAKE SPOTLIGHT FROM BIG BOXOperating Fundamentals The industrial sector continues to see more yield compression than other sectors driven by outsized investor demand given thegrowth outlook Rent growth has not kept pace with price appreciation, particularly in several U.S. markets, where oversupply is also becoming a risk Higher e-commerce penetration (16-25% in the U.S. in one year) combined with tenant’s preference to focus on supply chain resiliency hasled to significant incremental demand for well-located logistics assets Possibility that eCommerce demand (which has comprised 50% of leasing in 2020) 6 slows as consumers, once vaccinated, shift spendingfrom goods to services However retailers and distributors will likely add inventory and build out more ‘last mile’ locations, having focused most of 2020 on big boxdistribution facilities (average size of a logistics lease increased by 10% in 2020)7 Supply chains should continue to be reconfigured and become more fragmented, which will impact port cargo traffic and warehousedemand in different locationsDISPLAY 3Industrial Pricing has Accelerated, Rents have Lagged ex-US3Q 2020 vs Prior Peak (%)12010010499998073706071595653401520120-12-20New York Los AngelesDallasAtlantaLondonParisU.S.Milan Europe AsiaPotential Investment Strategies Develop core product at attractive yield on cost in high growth markets Take leasing and repositioning risk in urban infill assets where supply is constrainedCBRE, September 2020.Costar, MSREI Strategy, January 20214MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT REAL ASSETSSydneyTokyoAsiaSource: PMA, CoStar, data as of December 20207ShanghaiEurope Values vs Peak: U.S.6Madrid Rents vs PeakSingapore
2021 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK: RECOVERY, RE-PRICING AND REFLATIONARY FUNDAMENTALSResidentialSIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN PERFORMANCE POTENTIALLY OPENS UP RE-PRICING OPPORTUNITIESOperating Fundamentals Supply shortages continue to exist at more affordable price points in many global markets Shift in living preference to larger formats in suburban US locations Significant bifurcation in performance with effective rents under pressure in many urban markets, e.g., New York, San Francisco, London,Sydney and Barcelona, while growing in suburban U.S. markets, Northern Europe and Japan Significant recent increase in supply, particularly in the U.S. ( 7% of inventory under development in prime urban U.S. submarkets comparedto less than 3% in suburban submarkets8) This could lead to a slower recovery in rents in urban locations ever after the workforce begin to repopulate these urban centers Regulatory risk limiting rental growth where affordability is stretchedDISPLAY 4Residential Rental Weakness in Gateway City Urban MarketsYOY Change in Residential ndonBarcelonaBerlinHelsinkiSource: Catella, Costar, Australian Financial Review, Zoopla, Savills, MSREI Research as at December 30, 2020Potential Investment Strategies Develop multifamily and single family rental product to sell into core institutional market Acquire existing product where investment and asset management can drive rental growth Recapitalize assets with impaired cash flows in select urban markets8Costar, Global Trends Webinar, December 2020.REAL ASSETS MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT5
2021 MARKET OUTLOOKOfficeSIGNIFICANT BIFURCATION IN PERFORMANCEOperating Fundamentals Overall, slower and weaker demand coming out of the recession and the uncertainty over potential hybrid working models may forceinvestors to remain selective with the sector Impacts will differ significantly by market and asset quality, but overall MSREI expects rent declines and repricing for office assets with nearterm leasing risk, challenged specifications or in secondary locations Tenant and investor flight to quality should lead to outperformance for new functional and flexible office assets versus older morephysically constrained properties Mounting sub lease space, already-high rent levels and potentially higher costs from regulations suggests that rents and values in CBDs willbe more challenged in the near term Technology sector will likely lead the economic recovery across most regions. Therefore markets with a high concentration of technologydemand and knowledge workers should outperform over the medium-term.DISPLAY 5Higher Density Markets may be More Likely to Adopt WFH, although Cultural Differences may be more ImportantSqm per 77LondonShanghaiTokyoSingaporeSydneyChicagoNew YorkBoston San FranciscoSource: Green Street Advisors, PMA, CoStar, MSREI Strategy, as of June 2020DISPLAY 6Higher Office and Housing Cost Markets may see more WFH/ Out MigrationOffice Occupancy Cost, /sqm180016001400120010008006004002000Capital City Housing Cost Premium, 190549013WarsawBerlinMadrid StockholmParisLondonEuropeChicago Wash DCBoston San Fran New YorkU.S. / Office Occupancy Cost (LHS) Housing Cost Premium (RHS)Source: Green Street Advisors, CBRE, MSREI Strategy, as of June 2020Potential Investment Strategies Reposition existing assets to meet demands of modern occupiers and core investors (e.g., ESG, health and technology) Acquire high quality assets with leasing risk at cyclical lows in select gateway markets Continue to pursue smaller, off-market investments in Japan with attractive leverage6MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT REAL ASSETS80706050403020100
2021 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK: RECOVERY, RE-PRICING AND REFLATIONARY FUNDAMENTALSHotelsSMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO ACQUIRE RE-PRICED ASSETSOperating Fundamentals The hotel sector is undergoing significant operational challenges with the recovery of NOI back to pre-COVID levels likely to be elongatedand bifurcated based on the type of hotel and market. Operational challenges, coupled with the scarcity of debt financing for hotels during downturns, has historically led to significant pricedeclines in recessionary periods followed by significant growth in valuations as operations improve and capital markets recover Leisure-oriented hotels accessed by local markets expected to recover before hotels dependent on international and business travel Hotel operators may be able to keep cost growth subdued due to forced innovations implemented during the pandemic, thereforesupporting more robust profit growth as revenues reboundDISPLAY 7DISPLAY 8U.S. RevPAR, % Change Y/YRevPAR Index, 100 in 2019Performance Bifurcation between Leisure and GroupTravel Hotels20RevPAR Declines Forecasted to be More Severe ThanPast b-20Mar-20Apr-20Transient (Leisure)May-20Jun-20Jul-20Group (Business)Source: STR, MSREI Strategy, as of September 202020192020USpre-Covid basecase2021Europeprevious trend: 2000-2002Source: Tourism Economics, STR, Morgan Stanley Research as ofAugust 2020Potential Investment Strategies Acquire assets with operating challenges and impaired cash flows that are most likely to benefit from resumption of travel and increasingconsumer confidenceREAL ASSETS MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT7
2021 MARKET OUTLOOKRetailLONGER AND MORE UNCERTAIN ROAD TO RECOVERYOperating Fundamentals Acceleration of all previous disruptive trends, including rightsizing of retailers’ footprints, tenant bankruptcies, and rising shopping centerand high street vacancies These forces should result in rents being reset lower resulting in a significant decline in NOI and continued re-pricing across the sector,bifurcated by retail product type, location and quality of center High street retail likely to recover before shopping centersDISPLAY 9COVID Impacts Will Vary by Retail Product TypeMOST AFFECTEDMALL Over-reliance onmidrange apparel Bankruptciesconcentrated here Oversupply (particularly U.S.) Significant capital investmentsneeded to maintain and/orreposition B-and-below assetsMOST PROTECTEDCOMMUNITY/POWER CENTERSTREET & URBANENVIRONMENTSNEIGHBORHOODCENTER As before COVID, health willvary significantly by asset Community centers(unanchored strip centers) facehigh immediate-term vacancybut less medium-term distress “A” Power Centers will thrive(more resilient to eCommerce),though lenders may stillperceive big-box risk Prime, global high streets Longer recovery period High rents are a risk factor andresets are likely in key areassuch as Manhattan Longer-term, urban areaswill rebound Cap rate compressionmay occur in this spacedue to concentration ofinstitutional capitalUrban neighborhoods Short-term challenges dueto high F&B and independentretailer mix Longer-term growth expecteddue to structural demographicand economic shifts towardsurbanized suburbia andsecondary citiesSource: CBRE, as of September 2020Potential Investment Strategies Selectively acquire core high street assets in strategic, tourism-oriented locations Selectively target shopping centers that include a convenience or hyper market element in markets where oversupply is less of a risk8MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT REAL ASSETS
2021 GLOBAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK: RECOVERY, RE-PRICING AND REFLATIONARY FUNDAMENTALSHealthcareLONGER AND MORE UNCERTAIN ROAD TO RECOVERYOperating Fundamentals Aging demographics and growing healthcare expenditure will be a secular tailwind for well-located healthcare real estate, predominantlymedical office buildings (MOB) and life science Continued shift to outpatient care and desire for health systems to find more affordable medical office locations has created a steady andresilient level of occupancy Strong capital flows from venture capital, national and corporate sources continues to fuel lab research and real estate opportunities inspecific market clusters in the U.S. and U.K.Potential Investment Strategies Reposition healthcare (life science/MOB) at attractive yields on cost (e.g., U.S., U.K.)Dual Strategy of IncomeGrowth and ValueMSREI believes that investors shouldfocus on building a diversified portfoliothat includes investments in more resilientasset classes, such as logistics, healthcareand residential, while at the same time,targeting value opportunities in the office,hotel, urban residential and retail sectors,where greater levels of re-pricing areexpected to materialize due to cyclical andsecular headwinds. Additionally, investorsneed to remain focused on investmentissues such as how climate change isaffecting real estate trends, marketattractiveness and property level attributesas well as broader demographic shifts,including aging populations and shiftingliving preferences.ConclusionMSREI believes that the unique mixof recovery, volatility, and performancedifferentiation will present an attractivewindow for real estate investing. Globallydiversified portfolios that balance incomegrowth and value will be best positionedto take advantage of the divergenceof cyclical and secular forces acrosscountries, markets and sectors. In thisinvesting environment, MSREI believeslocal market perspective, knowledge,presence and relationships, combinedwith the ability to actively manage assetsto drive NOI growth will be critical todeliver attractive risk-adjusted returns.DISPLAY 10Growth vs Value Opportunities etail MallsCorporate HotelsHigh Street RetailSenior LivingGateway/CBD OfficeLeisure HotelsValueClass A Urban MultiClass B MultiGrowth OfficeGrowthOpportunitiesUrban Infill IndustrialSingle Family RentalIndustrial Big BoxLife ScienceLowerDistress/Re-PricingData CentersLower/Slower OfficeGrowth/Recovery to Pre-COVID Level ResidentialREAL ASSETS Retail IndustrialHigher/Quicker Other asset classesMORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT9
2021 MARKET OUTLOOKIMPORTANT DISCLAIMERSThe document has been prepared solely for information purposes and doesnot constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any particularsecurity or to adopt any specific investment strategy. The material containedherein has not been based on a consideration of any individual clientcircumstances and is not investment advice, nor should it be construedin any way as tax, ac
2021 Market Outlook 2021 Global Real Estate Outlook: Recovery, Re-Pricing and Reflationary Fundamentals 2021 will likely mark the beginning of the next new real estate market cycle as the pick-up in economic growth begins to flow more broadly through to real estate fundamentals, which will continue to recover at different speeds by sector.
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