Navigating The Future V: Marine Science For A Sustainable .

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Apr 10, 2021Navigating the Future V: Marine Science for a Sustainable Future European MarineBoard- Position Paper 24Boero, Ferdinando; Cummins, Valerie; Gault, Jeremy; Huse, Geir; Philippart, Catharina J.M.; Schneider,Ralph; Treguier, Anne Marie; Besiktepe, Sukru; Boeuf, Gilles; Garcia-Soto, CarlosTotal number of authors:25Link to article, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.2809392Publication date:2019Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of recordLink back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Boero, F., Cummins, V., Gault, J., Huse, G., Philippart, C. J. M., Schneider, R., Treguier, A. M., Besiktepe, S.,Boeuf, G., Garcia-Soto, C., Horsburgh, K., Kopp, H., Malfatti, F., Mariani, P., Matz-Lück, N., Mees, J., Pinheiro,L. M., Lacroix, D., Le Tissier, M., . Weslawski, J-M. (2019). Navigating the Future V: Marine Science for aSustainable Future European Marine Board: - Position Paper 24. European Marine Board. Marine Board-ESFPosition Paper No. 24 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2809392General rightsCopyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyrightowners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portalIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.

EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VEuropean Marine BoardThe European Marine Board provides a pan-European platform for its member organizations todevelop common priorities, to advance marine research, and to bridge the gap between scienceand policy in order to meet future marine science challenges and opportunities.The European Marine Board was established in 1995 to facilitate enhanced cooperation between European marine science organizations towards the development of a common vision on the strategic research priorities for marine sciencein Europe. Members are either major national marine or oceanographic institutes, research funding agencies, or nationalconsortia of universities with a strong marine research focus. In 2019, the European Marine Board represents 33 MemberOrganizations from 18 countries.The Board provides the essential components for transferring knowledge for leadership in marine research in Europe.Adopting a strategic role, the European Marine Board serves its member organizations by providing a forum within whichmarine research policy advice to national agencies and to the European Commission is developed, with the objective ofpromoting the establishment of the European Research Area.www.marineboard.euEuropean Marine Board Member OrganizationsUNIVERSITÉS MARINESIrish MarineUniversitiesConsortiumNational Research Council of ItalyMASTS2

POSITION PAPER 24Navigating theFuture VPosition Paper 24Navigating the Future V: Marine Science for a Sustainable FutureEuropean Marine Board – Position Paper 24EditorSheila J.J. HeymansEditing teamBritt Alexander, Ángel Muñiz Piniella, Paula Kellett, Joke Coopman, Kate LarkinInternal review processThe content of this document has been subject to internal review, editorial support and approval by the EuropeanMarine Board Member Organizations.ProloguePeter M. HauganCoordinating authorsFerdinando Boero, Valerie Cummins, Jeremy Gault, Geir Huse, Catharina J.M. Philippart, Ralph Schneider,Anne Marie TreguierContributing authorsSukru Besiktepe, Gilles Boeuf, Marta Coll, Carlos Garcia-Soto, Kevin Horsburgh, Heidrun Kopp, Francesca Malfatti,Patrizio Mariani, Nele Matz-Lück, Jan Mees, Luis Menezes Pinheiro, Denis Lacroix, Martin Le Tissier, David M. Paterson,Gerald Schernewski, Olivier Thébaud, Michiel B. Vandegehuchte, Sebastián Villasante, Martin Visbeck, Jan MarcinWęsławskiExternal reviewersLars Horn, Howard Browman, Jason Link, Beth FultonCopy EditingCathryn Primrose-MathisenSuggested referenceEuropean Marine Board (2019) Navigating the Future V: Marine Science for a Sustainable Future. Position Paper 24of the European Marine Board, Ostend, Belgium. ISBN: 9789492043757. ISSN: 0167-9309.DOI: eboard.euDesignZoeckCover photo credit: PexelsInfographics by ArteveldehogeschoolJune 20193

EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VTable of Contents4Foreword5Prologue – Ocean science in action6Executive summary71.Introduction1.1. Role and relevance of the ocean1.2. Governance of ocean and coasts in the international agenda1.3. Europe at the forefront of ocean science and observation1.4. The relevance of Navigating the Future series891113152.A four-dimensional and connected ocean2.1. The physical ocean2.2. The biogeochemical ocean2.3. The biological ocean2.4. Managing change in the four-dimensional ocean2.5. Conclusion and recommendations1819212223263.A multi-stressed and rapidly changing ocean3.1. Changes in ocean drivers3.2. Impacts of change3.3. Policy drivers3.4. Conclusions and recommendations28303134354. Science of surprises4.1. Trends and expectations4.1.1. Storm surges4.1.2. Heatwaves and harsh winters4.1.3. Dynamic sea-floor processes and natural hazards4.1.4. Meteotsunamis4.2. World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenges requirements4.3. Recommendations38414142424344465.5.7.6.Novel technologies, data and modelling for ocean research5.1. Observatories5.2. Instrumentation, systems, sensors and parameters5.3. Data5.4. Numerical models5.5. Future trends5.6. Towards a digital ocean twinRecommendationsSustainability science for the ocean6.1. What is it and why do we need it in European marine research?6.2. Key challenges6.3. Roadmap6.4. Recommendations485053545455565658596061667.New frontiers, gaps and recommendations7.1. Governance for a healthy ocean7.2. Final comment7.3. ary84Abbreviations and Acronyms86Annexes88

POSITION PAPER 24ForewordIn the six years since Navigating the Future IV was published (EuropeanMarine Board, 2013) there have been significant changes in theperceptions and realities of marine science. Worldwide, the importanceof the ocean and the impact of human activities have been highlightedpolitically in the UN World Ocean Assessment (2015), through theadoption of “Life below the Water” as one of the UN SustainableDevelopment Goals (SDG14) and in the First IOC-UNESCO GlobalOcean Science Report (2017). The G7 first made the future of the seasand oceans a priority in 2015 and this was emphasised again in theTsukuba Communiqué (2016), the Turin Communiqué (2017) and theG7 BluePrint on Healthy Oceans and Seas (2018). Other highlightsinclude the OECD Ocean Economy in 2030 report (2016) and the OurOcean Conferences, which have taken place annually since 2016.The human impact on the ocean has gained mainstream societal attention through the “Blue Planet effect”,which has influenced ocean activists from across Europe and the world. The European Commission has nowappointed a Special Envoy on Maritime Policy (MEP Gesine Meissner) and hosted a European Parliamentconference on the Future of the Oceans. During the last six years, European policies have moved on fromthe Integrated Maritime Policy (2012) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008) to the reformof the Common Fisheries Policy (2014) and the Blue Growth agenda in support of the blue economy (2017).The European Framework programme Horizon 2020 had specific “Blue Growth” calls and the EuropeanMaritime and Fisheries Fund (EMFF) invested 6.4 billion in the maritime economy. Given these substantialdevelopments, one could wonder whether more research is needed. Do we now know enough to be able tomanage the oceans sustainably?Navigating the Future V (NFV) shows that this is certainly not the case. There are still gaps in our knowledgefrom fundamental geology, physics, biogeochemistry and biology. This knowledge is critical in understandingthe four-dimensional ocean, to predict tsunamis and the impact of multiple stressors on biogeochemistryand biology, and to understand the impact of the future blue economy on our marine ecosystems. NFVshows that we need transdisciplinary science and sustainability science to address the management of aholistic four-dimensional ocean. It also highlights the technological advances and modelling needed for apossible future virtual ocean that would enhance public engagement and understanding of the ocean. NFVproposes the science we need for the forthcoming UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development(2021-2030), the next European Framework Programme, Horizon Europe, and its probable Mission on HealthyOceans, Seas, Coastal and Inland Waters.I hope that Navigating the Future V will enhance the uptake of ocean science throughout the UN Decade,Horizon Europe and the Mission, but also through National strategic research priorities and Joint ProgrammingInitiatives such as JPI Oceans. I would like to thank all authors and reviewers for their contributions to thisdocument. I would also like to thank past and present members of the European Marine Board secretariatfor their work in preparing this report, including former director Niall McDonough and Senior Science OfficerKate Larkin, who are no longer at the EMB secretariat but who contributed to the formation of NFV.Jan MeesChair, European Marine BoardJune 20195

EMB NAVIGATING THE FUTURE VPrologue – Ocean Science in ActionThe European Marine Board is approaching 25 years of tirelessactivity. Since its inception and through its changing organizationalforms the European Marine Board has taken on a gradually biggerand more important role. Navigating the Future IV from 2013 and therelated Rome Declaration from 2014 broke new ground in many ways,advocating observations and data sharing for multiple purposes andsetting the stage for ocean literacy. It provided advice to the EU and tonational science funding priorities, but it also stimulated the marinescience community to break down barriers between disciplines andstakeholders and to talk to people at large, not only within narrowscientific circles.The present edition offers an update and takes a perspective fromnow until 2030, the time frame agreed by all members of the UnitedNations to be crucial for a sustainable future. Within the next decade, the goal is to provide nutritious food,clean energy, water, medical services and decent living conditions for all people on Earth in a sustainableway, i.e. without overstepping the carrying capacity of the planet. Few believe that this can be done withoutharvesting more from the ocean and increasing activity at sea. Yet, the ocean and its ecosystem services areunder threat from pollution and climate change.Ocean science based solutions are needed and they are needed fast. Open innovation, sharing of knowledgebest practices and collaboration will be imperative. Navigating the Future V is coming at exactly the righttime. It puts Europe in the global context. It invites and encourages European governments, institutions andindividuals to play a leading role in putting ocean science to work for our global common future. This is not arace where the aim is to leave others behind. On the contrary, now is the time to lead by example. The futurewe all want requires a healthy ocean and sustainable use of its resources. This report is a step towards thescience we need for the ocean we want.Peter M. HauganChair, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC of UNESCO)6

POSITION PAPER 24Executive SummaryNavigating the Future is a publication series produced by the European Marine Board providing futureperspectives on marine science and technology in Europe. Navigating the Future V (NFV) highlights newknowledge obtained since Navigating the Future IV1 (2013). It is set within the framework of the 2015Paris Agreement2 and builds on the scientific basis and recommendations of the IPCC reports3. NFV givesrecommendations on the science required during the next decade to deliver the ocean we need to supporta sustainable future. This will be important for the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for SustainableDevelopment4 (2021 – 2030), the implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals5 and theEuropean Commission’s next framework programme, Horizon Europe6 (2021 - 2027). There is a growing needto strengthen the links between marine science, society and policy since we cannot properly manage whatwe do not know.In recent years, the ocean and seas have received new prominence in international agendas. To secure asafe planet a priority is the management of the ocean as a “common good for humanity”, which requiressmarter observations to assess of the state of the ocean and predictions about how it may change in thefuture. The ocean is a three-dimensional space that needs to be managed over time (thus four-dimensional),and there is a need for management and conservation practices that integrate the structure and functionof marine ecosystems into these four dimensions (Chapter 2). This includes understanding the dynamicspatial and temporal interplay between ocean physics, chemistry and biology. Multiple stressors includingclimate change, pollution and over-fishing affect the ocean and we need to better understand and predicttheir interactions and identify tipping points to decide on management priorities (Chapter 3). This shouldintegrate our understanding of land-ocean-atmosphere processes and approaches to reducing impacts. Animproved science base is also needed to help predict and minimize the impact of extreme events such asstorm surges, heat waves, dynamic sea-floor processes and tsunamis (Chapter 4). New technologies, datahandling and modelling approaches will help us to observe, understand and manage our use of the fourdimensional ocean and the effect of multiple stressors (Chapter 5).Addressing these issues requires a strategic, collective and holistic approach and we need to build acommunity of sustainability scientists that are able to provide evidence-based support to policy makerswithin the context of major societal challenges (Chapter 6). We outline new frontiers, knowledge gaps andrecommendations needed to manage the ocean as a common good and to develop solutions for a sustainablefuture (Chapter 7). The governance of sustainability should be at the core of the marine research agendathrough co-production and collaboration with stakeholders to identify priorities. There is need for a fullyintegrated scientific assessment of resilience strategies, associated trade-offs and underlying ethical conceptsfor the ocean, which should be incorporated into decision support frameworks that involve stakeholders fromthe outset. To allow the collection, processing and access to all data, a key priority is the development of abusiness model that ensures the long-term economic sustainability of ocean sites/default/files/english paris g/horizon-europe en7

Credit: Ferdinando Boero1Introduction

INTRODUCTION1.1. Role and relevance of the oceanThe ocean’s ever-changing seascape and its unexplored depthscapture our imagination. It plays a crucial role in climate regulationand sustaining life. It provides humanity with significant living,mineral and energy resources and increasingly delivers ourgoods on a global seaway. Coastal spaces attract a growinghuman population who enjoy their health benefits, beauty andopportunities for tourism, leisure and for work in multiple economicsectors. However, the ocean and the essential resources it providesare under threat. We are currently living in what has been termed‘The Anthropocene’ — an age in which human activities arehaving a dominant influence on climate and the environment.The predominant human impact is anthropogenic greenhousegas emissions causing ocean warming and acidification. This hasconsequences for marine biodiversity, weather patterns (includingheat waves, coastal flooding and extreme events) and the abilityof the ocean to store excess atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) andto produce oxygen to support life. The impact of humans on theenvironment is evident and studies have linked human migrationto environmental degradation from climate change and otheranthropogenic impacts (Leighton, 2006; Lu et al., 2016). As we arefacing these imminent threats to the marine environment, we arealso still developing the technology and scientific knowledge basenecessary to fully explore, observe and understand the ocean.These developments are needed to accurately predict and managethe impact of human activities on our future ocean.The ocean contains most of the water on Earth and covers 71% ofthe planet’s surface. However, only less than 10% of the world’sseafloor has been mapped so far with adequate detail7. To fullyunderstand its true significance, we must understand that theocean is not merely a surface, but a volume (1,370 million km3)representing 99% of the habitable space on the planet. In spiteof the overwhelming importance of the aquatic component ofthe biosphere, much less is known about the ocean than theland, mainly because humans are terrestrial, and we view thingsfrom a land-based perspective. We see the fields, the forests andthe stars, but we cannot see under the surface of the sea. Weinstinctively recognize and understand the landscape but not theseascape. This is also true for the sciences that study the ocean.For example, we often use spatial principles from terrestrialecology and only study the sea bottom, disregarding the volumeof water above.The ocean has played a key role in the history of our planet and inthe origin and evolution of life, and today’s ocean continues to bea major actor in the support of life and the regulation of climate.Despite occupying the largest habitable space on Earth, knownmarine species make up only 13% of the current described worldbiodiversity largely due to our lack of knowledge of the depths ofthe ocean and of marine microorganisms.The ocean is the largest living space on Earth and spatial continuityis its main feature. Unjustifiably, it is often misconceived asunlimited in resources, life-sustaining space and capacity to copewith anthropogenic threats. With the human population set togrow to more than 11 billion by 2100 (United Nations, 2017), thismisconception increases the risks of overexploitation leading toirreversible loss of the ocean’s services and benefits for society(Austen et al., 2019).The ocean plays a major role in regulating the Earth’s climate byredistributing and absorbing heat: 93% of the excess energy storedby the Earth in the past 50 years as a consequence of increases ingreenhouse gas emissions is found in the oceans (IPCC, 2013). Thisis because the capacity of the ocean to store heat is much higherthan the atmosphere. Since 1993, the ocean heat content hasincreased at a rate of 0.6 Wm-2 down to 2,000 m (Schuckmann et al.,2016). The ocean is stratified (layered), meaning that lighter, warmerwater is found above colder, denser water. Anthropogenic warmingincreases the temperature of surface waters the most, which leadsto reduced vertical mixing of nutrients and a decline in upperocean productivity. Stratification also increases deoxygenationand hypoxia, which has been linked to mass

Navigating the Future is a publication series produced by the European Marine Board providing future perspectives on marine science and technology in Europe. Navigating the Future V (NFV) highlights new knowledge obtained since Navigating the Future IV1 (2013). It is set within the framework of the 2015

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