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PROGRAM COORDINATION FORTHE WORLD BANK CLEAN AIR INITIATIVE INSUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN CITIESwww.worldbank.org/cleanairPrevious Working Papers Available from the World Bank onThe Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African CitiesWorking Paper No. 1: Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities – Dakar Seminar,December 17 & 18, 1998 – Urban Transport and Air Quality in Dakar – Proceedings (SSATPand Urban Mobility, February 1999).Working Paper No. 2: Air Quality Studies in Urban Context – Dakar and OuagadougouCases – Final Reports (SSATP and Urban Mobility, September 1999).Patrick BultynckSr. Urban Transport EconomistThe World Bank, Africa Regionpbultynck@worldbank.orgChantal ReliquetSr. Urban SpecialistThe World Bank, Africa Regioncreliquet@worldbank.orgWorking Paper No. 3: Clean Air Initiative in Sub-Saharan African Cities – Work in Progress(January 2000).Working Paper No. 4: Air Quality Study in Urban Context – Cotonou Case – Synthesis(October 2000).Working Paper No. 5: Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in SubSaharan Africa – Dakar, Senegal, June 26-28, 2001 – Proceedings (December 2001).Working Paper No. 6: National Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline inNigeria – Abuja, Nigeria, November 15–16, 2001 – Proceedings (March 2002).Working Paper No. 7: Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline inNigeria and Neighboring Countries – Cotonou, Benin, April 11–12, 2002 – Proceedings (June2002).Working Paper No. 8: Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in WestAfrica – Dakar, Senegal, March 26–27, 2002 – Proceedings (July 2002).Working Paper No. 9: Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in EastAfrica – Nairobi, Kenya, June 5–7, 2002 – Proceedings (January 2003).THE WORLD BANK GRATEFULLY ACKNOWLEDGESTHE FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTION AND SUPPORT FROM:Energy Sector ManagementAssistance ProgrammeDGDCNTFESSDWorking Paper No. 10: 1998-2002 Progress Report of the World Bank Clean Air Initiative inSub-Saharan African Cities (January 2003).Working Paper No. 11: Rapport d’avancement 1998-2002 de l’initiative sur la qualité del’air dans les villes d’Afrique sub-saharienne de la Banque mondiale (Janvier 2003).Working Paper No. 12: Second Steering Committee: The Road Ahead – Phase II: 2003–2006(May 2003).Belgian Development CooperationWorking Paper No. 13: Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Oil Importing Countries of SubSaharan Africa – The Case of Ethiopia, Action Plan (ESMAP, December 2003).The Nordic Trust Fund for Environmentally andSocially Sustainable Development (NTFESSD)Working Paper No. 14: Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Oil Importing Countries of SubSaharan Africa – The Case of Tanzania, Action Plan (ESMAP, December 2003).Working Paper No. 15: Elimination de l’essence avec plomb dans les pays importateurs depétrole de l’Afrique Sub-Saharienne – Le Cas de la Mauritanie, Plan d’Action (ESMAP, Décembre 2003).THE COOPERATION AND SUPPORT FROM:Eleodoro Mayorga-Alba, Technical AdvisorLead Petroleum EconomistThe World Bank, COPCOemayorgaalba@worldbank.orgWorking Paper No. 16: Elimination de l’essence avec plomb dans les pays importateurs depétrole de l’Afrique Sub-Saharienne – Le Cas du Mali, Plan d’Action (ESMAP, Décembre 2003).Working Paper No. 17-A: Etude sur la qualité de l’air en milieu urbain : Le Cas de Douala,Cameroun – Rapport Final (Février 2004).Working Paper No. 17-B: Etude sur la qualité de l’air en milieu urbain : Le Cas de Douala,Cameroun – Synthèse (Février 2004).Working Paper No. 18 (CD ROM Format): Sub-Regional Conference on the Phase-Out ofLeaded Gasoline in West Central Africa and Seminar on the Air Pollution in Douala – Douala,Cameroon, March 16–17, 2004 – Proceedings (April 2004).AFRICA REGIONTHE WORLD BANK
Progress Towards Phasing Out Leaded GasolineBy Sub-Region of Sub-Saharan AfricaApril 2004Prepared byFred SexsmithConsultantDownstream Oil Advisor, Ltd.Vancouver, Canada
Progress Towards Phasing Out Leaded Gasoline by Sub-region of SSATable of ContentsPageChapter IABCDBackground .1Study Objective .1Summary of Findings .1Report Format and Study Administration .2Chapter IIABCDIntroductionOverall Progress by Sub-regionThe Status of Sub-regional Action Plans.3Progress to date towards Pb phase-out .5Constraints inhibiting Further Progress .7Options for overcoming constraints to further progress .11Chapter III West AfricaABCDProgress to date in Pb phase-out.14Constraints .14What is required for further progress in lead phase-out .16Beyond Pb phase-out towards cleaner air .16Chapter IV Nigeria and neighbours .17Chapter VABCDWest Central AfricaProgress to date .18Constraints .18What is required for further progress in lead phase-out .18Beyond Pb phase-out towards cleaner air .20Chapter VI Southern AfricaABCDProgress to date .21Constraints .23What is required for further progress in lead phase-out .23Beyond Pb Phase-out towards cleaner air .23Chapter VII Eastern AfricaABCDProgress to date .25Constraints .25What is required for further progress in lead phase-out .25Beyond Pb phase-out towards cleaner air .27i
List of Tables, Figures & AnnexesTable No1234pageSelected SSA Motor Gasoline Market Characteristics by Sub-Region .4Sub-regional Progress to Date Towards Pb phase out .6Range of Octane Ratings in SSA by Sub-region.8Number of Gasoline Grades by Country : by Sub-region .10Figure No12345Relative Significance of Sub-Saharan Africa Motor Gasoline Markets.5Lead Phase-out Progress to Date in West Africa, Nigeria and Neighbours .15Lead Phase-out Progress to Date in West Central Africa .19Lead Phase-out Progress to Date in Southern Africa .212Lead Phase-out Progress to Date in Eastern Africa.26Annexe NoAInformation SourcesBEstimated 2003 Motor Gasoline Consumption by Lead Level in Sub-Saharan AfricaCBasic Indicators for Sub-Saharan Africa CountriesDLe plan d’action de l’Afrique Centrale de l’Ouest sur l’élimination du plomb dansl’essence Douala, République du Cameroun, 16 et 17 mars 2004ii
List of abbreviations and ONRSASACUSADCCSAPIASARSISIRSO.NA.RA.SOGARASSAST PtpaUEMOAUNEPUNLUS EPAUsc/LWCAWt , Clean Air InitiativeCommunauté économique et monétaire d’Afrique centraleNational Hydrocarbons Committee(Société) congolaise de raffinage à Pointe Noire au CongoCampania do Pipeline Mozambique – Zimbabwe, Ltda.Director of HydrocarbonsMozambique’s National Energy DirectorateEast African CommunityEconomic Community of West African StatesEuropean UniongramsGross national productGroupement professionel de pétroleInternational Petroleum Industry Environ. Conservation Assoc.thousandKenya Pipeline Ltd.Kenya Petroleum Refinery Ltd.Litre ; there are 3.78 L per US gallon and 4.54 L per imperial gallonmillioncubic metres, or 1000 litres ; also equal to 6.29 barrelsNew Economic Partnership for African DevelopmentNigeria National Petroleum Corp.Office malgagache des hydrocarburesleadparts per millionRépublique centrafricaine, Central African RepublicRép. démocratique du Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congoresearch octane numberRepublic of South AfricaSA Customs UnionSouthern African Development CommunitySouth African Petroleum Industry AssociationSociété Africaine de raffinage à Dakar, SénégalInternal combustion spark ignition enginesSociété Ivoirienne de raffinage à Abidjan, Côte d’IvoireSociété nationale de raffinage à Limbé, CamerounSociété gabonaise de raffinage à Port Gentil, GabonSub-Saharan AfricaSão Tomé and Principetonnes per year (for refinery capacity based on 330 to 340 operatingdays per year)Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest AfricaineUnited Nations Environmental Programunleaded gasolineUnited States Environmental Protection AgencyUnited States cents per litreWest Central African sub-regionweightless than, greater thaniii
Progress Towards Phasing Out Leaded Gasoline by Sub-region of SSAChapter IAIntroductionBackgroundFor a number of years the World Bank has supported a Clean Air Initiative to reduce urban airpollution based on, inter alia, the removal of lead from gasoline. As part of this Initiative aconference was held in Dakar late June 2001 to officially launch a campaign to eliminate leadfrom gasoline in SSA not later than December, 2005. Follow-up conferences to prepare leadphase-out Action Plans have since been held in each of the following five sub-regions: West Africa (March, 2002) ;Nigeria and neighbouring countries (April, 2002) ;West Central Africa (March, 2004) ;Southern Africa (October, 2003) ;East Africa (June, 2002).To take stock of the progress made thus far and to define what further actions need to be takento ensure that the lead phase-out deadline of the end of 2005 will be met, the World Bank andUNEP are jointly organising a Conference for all of Sub-Saharan Africa to take place in Nairobiearly May, 2004.Pb phase-out is only one aspect of a number of components in the World Bank’s CAI. Alone, Pbphase-out will result in health benefits due to its toxicity. However, even greater health andenvironmental benefits can be achieved through the introduction of catalytic converters which,when properly used, substantially reduce other harmful SI engine emissions. Lead poisonscatalytic converters; thus, Pb phase-out is a necessary pre-condition to further vehicle-relatedemission reductions.BStudy ObjectiveTo enhance the effectiveness of the Nairobi Conference this Report describes what progresshas been accomplished to date in each of the five sub-regions and identifies the key constraintsto lead phase-out by 2005. It also proposes ways to overcome these constraints for debate atthe Conference. As Pb phase-out is only one step towards cleaner air the Report also notes theextent to which various countries have included plans to introduce catalytic converters and/ordevelop vehicle emission standards and tests.CSummary of FindingsThe overall news on Pb phase-out is very positive: of the almost 50 SSA countries none is known not to be planning to eliminate lead inmotor gasoline by 2005 or shortly thereafter ; all 12 countries with refineries are understood to have committed to Pb phase-out ; by Q2, 2004 nine (confirmed) countries have switched entirely to UNL fuel :--- Cape Verde--- Mauritius--- Ethiopia--- Nigeria (refiner)--- Eritrea--- Rwanda--- Ghana (refiner)--- Sudan (refiner)--- Mauritania1
in total, over one half of all motor gasoline sold in SSA was unleaded.This progress has been achieved, primarily, by a combination of reducing octane levels,typically from 95 RON to 90/91 RON, and the use of lead replacement additives, especiallyMMT. Very few octane-enhancing investments have been made or committed to. Otherwise,physical constraints are few, notably the terminalling and pipeline infrastructure in Mozambiqueand Kenya for serving their inland neighbours and decisions regarding the roles of the Kenyanand Malagasy refineries.Future progress depends mainly on decisions regarding motor gasoline specifications,especially octane levels and the use of lead replacement additives. Once governmentsformalise their specifications the refiners can make the necessary modifications.The main constraint to making decisions at the national level appears to be administrative, inpart caused by a reluctance to act in the absence of absolute certainty regarding the parametersto be established. However, sufficient information is available to move forward and absolutecertainty will never be achieved. Given the intense commercial, financial, and legal interestswhich bear on product specifications, should governments be hesitant, it is recommended theirinformation come from independent sources, such as, for example, the World Bank or theoctane and valve seat working groups of the Public-Private Partnership being co-coordinated bythe UNEP.Sub-regional harmonisation cannot advance unless there is a willingness on the part ofindividual governments to do so. This will take time but should not impede lead phase-out ascommon standards, while desirable, are not critical. It will also take funding for the requisiteinter-governmental co-ordination meetings.DReport Format and Study AdministrationThis Report contains seven chapters : this introduction, a summary chapter, and five more : onefor each of the sub-regions. In addition supporting material is provided in the Annexes.The work has been completed on the basis of : brief field visits to each of the five sub-regions during Feb and March, 2004 ;Downstream Oil Advisors Ltd.’s in-house data base ;internet searches ;extensive visit follow-ups by e-mail with both key contacts in the individual countries andsub-regional (lead phase-out) co-ordinators. (Refer to Annexe A for a listing of informationsources.)The support of the contacts and the co-operation of the UNEP, the major oil and automobilemanufacturing companies operating in and selling into SSA, as well as numerous persons withineach of the sub-regions and at the World Bank is gratefully acknowledged. The Consultant isproud of the amount of information summarised in this document ; without the help of thosecontacted much of the output would not have been possible. Nonetheless, the Consultant takesfull responsibility for any errors in the data presented.The work has been funded by The World Bank under the direction of Patrick Bultynck, Sr. UrbanTransport Economist, Africa Region, and Eleodoro Mayorga-Alba, Lead Petroleum Economist,COCPO, The World Bank. While the Report is the work of the Consultant, editorial commentsby the World Bank are incorporated in the text.2
Chapter IIOverall Progress by Sub-regionChapter II starts by explaining why the action plans of some sub-regions are more importantthan others. Section B then summarises the progress to date, while Section C describes theconstraints which are inhibiting further progress. Chapter II ends with Section D setting out a setof potential options to overcome the constraints.AThe Status of Sub-regional Action PlansPrior to reviewing the Pb phase-out status of the individual sub-regions it is useful to bereminded of their relative characteristics shown in Table n 1. These characteristics determinethe various Pb phase-out approaches being adopted in each of the sub-regions and show thatintegrated sub-regional action plans, especially with regard to the establishment of UNL motorgasoline specifications, are useful among the key countries of West Africa, West Central Africa,and Easter Africa but are not critical to achieving the goal of Pb phase-out either in Nigeria andits neighbours or in Southern Africa. National action plans, however, are almost always usefulas it is individual governments which are ultimately responsible for enacting the requisite lawsand regulations and ensuring they are respected.Each sub-region is very different, one from the other. West Africa is a diverse sub-region of 12countries with limited cross border passenger car traffic and only 4 % of SSA motor gasolineconsumption. With three refineries (SAR, SIR, and Tema) motor gasoline production in the subregion roughly matches demand but there are substantial shipments both in and out.Nigeria and neighbours is not a cohesive sub-region ; there have been no formal gasolineexports from Nigeria to any of Benin, Niger or Togo for many years. All three are supplied byinternational traders who source from Abidjan, Ghana, Cameroun or beyond Africa. In any caseNigeria is a significant gasoline importer due to the inability of its refineries to operate anywherenear capacity. However, should they operate at typical international utilisation rates, it ispossible that smuggling from Nigeria into its neighbours will develop to a significant proportion.WCA comprises nine countries in a vast geographic area from Tchad to Angola and across tothe Copperbelt. The WCA sub-region only consumes about 4 % of all SSA motor gasoline and,despite four refineries [SO.NA.RA (Cameroun) SOGARA (Gabon), CORAF (Congo), andLuanda] is a slight net importer ; cross border trade and passenger car traffic is very limited.Southern Africa is very different from the other sub-regions. Comprising ten fairly welleconomically integrated countries this sub-region accounts for almost half the motor gasolineconsumption in SSA ; and, as a sub-region has gasoline production slightly in excess ofrequirements. Eastern Africa, consisting of 13 disparate countries is, in effect a grouping ofthree distinct sub-regions : Kenya, Tanzania and their inland neighbours of Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda ; the Horn countries, including Sudan ; and the Indian Ocean islands of Comoros, Seychelles and Mauritius. Together they areestimated to consume some 7 % of all SSA motor gasoline and rely on imports from theMiddle East to supplement their limited refinery production.3
oTable N 1Selected SSA Motor Gasoline Market Characteristics by Sub-RegionABCD# ofCountries% of Year 2003SSA MogasConsumptionNet MogaspositionCross borderpassenger car trafficWest Africa124%BalancedLimitedNigeria & Neighbours438%Large deficitLimitedWest Central Africa94%Slight deficitVery limitedSouthern Africa1047%Slight surplusExtensiveEastern Africa137%Large deficitTotal48326,752 K mKenya TanzaniaUganda : extensive.Otherwise very limited.100%Source:Columns A & B : Annexe BColumns C & D : Consultant's estimatesor Gasoline Market Characteristics by Sub-RegionFigure n 1 shows another characteristic relevant to the preparatio
Working Paper No. 12: Second Steering Committee: The Road Ahead – Phase II: 2003–2006 (May 2003). Working Paper No. 13: Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Oil Importing Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa – The Case of Ethiopia, Action Plan (ESMAP, December 2003). Working Paper No. 14: Phase-Out of Leaded Gasoline in Oil Importing Countries of Sub-
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