Demographic Transition And Its Consequences

3y ago
41 Views
7 Downloads
3.91 MB
287 Pages
Last View : 2d ago
Last Download : 2m ago
Upload by : Karl Gosselin
Transcription

PDR supp37 coverFINALPRINT2/13/144:33 PMPage 1Ronald D. LeeDavid S. ReherEditorsDemographicTransitionand ItsConsequencesA Supplement to Vol. 37, 2011POPULATIONANDDEVELOPMENTREVIEW

Population and Development Review seeks toadvance knowledge of the interrelationships betweenpopulation and socioeconomic development andprovides a forum for discussion of related issues of public policy.EDITORS Paul DemenyGeoffrey McNicollMANAGING EDITOR Ethel P. ChurchillEDITORIAL COMMITTEEPaul Demeny, ChairJohn BongaartsEthel P. ChurchillSusan GreenhalghGeoffrey McNicollEDITORIAL STAFFRobert Heidel, Production EditorY. Christina Tse, Production/DesignSura Rosenthal, ProductionADVISORY BOARDAlaka BasuJohn C. CaldwellDavid ColemanRichard A. EasterlinCharlotte HöhnS. Ryan JohanssonRonald D. LeeMassimo Livi BacciWolfgang LutzAkin L. MabogunjeCarmen A. MiróXizhe PengSamuel H. PrestonVaclav SmilDirk van de KaaJames VaupelSigned articles are the responsibility of the authors. Views expressed in the Review do not necessarilyreflect the views of the Population Council or its publisher, Wiley-Blackwell.Direct manuscripts, comments on articles, and correspondence to:Population and Development ReviewPopulation CouncilOne Dag Hammarskjold PlazaNew York, New York 10017 USAElectronic submissions are encouraged and should be sent to pdr@popcouncil.orgSupport from the United Nations Population Fund is gratefully acknowledged.This journal is printed on acid-free paper. Volumes are available on microfilm from UMI, 300 North ZeebRoad, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106.The website for Population and Development Review is www.blackwellpublishing.com/pdr.Subscribers have access to the electronic edition of the journal, which is published simultaneously withthe printed issue.The full contents of volumes 1–31 (1975–2005) are available through participating libraries from JSTORat www.jstor.org/journals/00987921.htmlPopulation and Development Review (ISSN 0098-7921 [print]; 1728-4457 [online]) is publishedquarterly on behalf of the Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017, USAby Blackwell Publishing, with offices at 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA, 9600 GarsingtonRoad, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK and 155 Cremorne Street, Richmond, Australia. Blackwell Publishing isnow part of Wiley-Blackwell.

DEMOGRAPHICTRANSITION AND ITSCONSEQUENCES

DEMOGRAPHICTRANSITION AND ITSCONSEQUENCESRonald D. LeeDavid S. ReherEditorsPopulation and Development ReviewA Supplement to Volume 37, 2011POPULATION COUNCILNew York

2011 by The Population Council, Inc. All rights reserved. With the exception of fair dealingfor the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, no part of this publicationmay be reproduced, stored, or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing from the copyright holder. Authorization to photocopy items for internal andpersonal use is granted by the copyright holder for libraries and other users of the CopyrightClearance Center (CCC), 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA (www.copyright.com), provided the appropriate fee is paid directly to the CCC. This consent does not extend toother kinds of copying, such as copying for general distribution, for advertising or promotionalpurposes, for creating new collective works, or for resale. Institutions with a paid subscriptionto this journal may make photocopies for teaching purposes free of charge provided such copiesare not resold. Special requests should be addressed to: journalrights@wiley.com.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataDemographic transition and its consequences / Ronald D. Lee, David S. Reher,editors.p. cm.“Population and development review, a supplement to volume 37, 2011.”Includes bibliographical references.Summary: “The chapters explore the consequences of the demographictransition--characterized by low mortality and low fertility--in modernindustrial societies and emerging economies. Aside from its immediate effecton population aging, the transition has implications for family and kinshippatterns, public finance, the welfare state, and intergenerational relations”-Provided by publisher.ISBN 978-0-87834-123-8 (alk. paper)1. Demographic transition. 2. Population aging. I. Lee, Ronald Demos,1941- II. Reher, David Sven. III. Population Council. IV. Population anddevelopment review ; vol. 37, 2011 (Supplement)HB887.D445 2011304.6’2--dc222010053112ISSN 0098-7921ISBN 978-0-87834-123-8Printed in the United States of America.

CONTENTSAcknowledgmentsIntroduction: The Landscape of Demographic Transitionand Its Aftermathvii1Ronald D. LeeDavid S. ReherIMPLICATIONS OF THE DEMOGRAPHICTRANSITION PAST AND PRESENTEconomic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition11David S. ReherThe Role of the Demographic Transition in the Processof Urbanization34Tim DysonLong-Term Effects of the Demographic Transition on Familyand Kinship Networks in Britain55Michael MurphyHow Much Does Family Matter? Cooperative Breedingand the Demographic Transition81Rebecca SearDavid CoallAGING AND INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERSGenerational Economics in a Changing WorldRonald D. LeeAndrew Mason115

Generational Transfers and Population Agingin Latin America143Luis Rosero-BixbyPopulation Aging and the Future of the Welfare State:The Example of Sweden158Tommy BengtssonKirk ScottREGIONAL PERSPECTIVESThe Future of a Demographic Overachiever: Long-TermImplications of the Demographic Transition in China173Wang FengAchievers and Laggards in Demographic Transition:A Comparison of Indonesia and Nigeria191Geoffrey McNicollPAST AND FUTURE IN THE LONG PERSPECTIVEWho’s Afraid of Population Decline? A Critical Examinationof Its Consequences217David ColemanRobert RowthornPopulation Policy and the Demographic Transition:Performance, Prospects, and Options249Paul DemenyAUTHORS275

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSThis volume derives from papers presented at a meeting on “The Long-TermImplications of the Demographic Transition” held in Madrid, Spain, in September 2009. The meeting was organized and sponsored by the Fundación RamónAreces and the Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS), a consolidatedmulti-institutional research group funded by the Madrid Regional Government.GEPS is made up of researchers from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid(UCM), the Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), the Universidad de San Pablo-CEU, and the Spanish Research Council (CSIC).Participants at this Madrid meeting agreed that publication of a selection ofthe papers would be a useful contribution to the field. In addition to the authorsrepresented here, those attending the meeting—and equally responsible for itssuccess—include: Tim Hatton, Bobbi Low, Lesley Newson, Héctor Pérez Brignoli,Jan Van Bavel, Gustavo de Santis, Giambattista Salinari, Peter Richerson, RalphHakkert, Blanca Sánchez Alonso, Miguel Requena, Juan Antonio FernándezCordón, Joaquín Arango, Vicente Pérez Moreda, Ignacio Duque, Rosa GómezRedondo, Leandro Prados de la Escosura, César Molinas, Teresa Castro, DiegoRamiro, and Nicolás Sánchez Albornoz. We would like to take this opportunityto thank all of them. Special thanks are also due to Elisa Muñoz Barba, whocoordinated the entire event.This PDR Supplement has been made possible thanks to generous fundingprovided by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS), the Center on the Economics and Demography of Aging (CEDA) of the University of California at Berkeley, and the CentroCentroamericano de Población (CCP) of the Universidad de Costa Rica. Finally,we extend our thanks to the staff of Population and Development Review for theirable help in preparing this book for publication.R.D.L.D.S.R.vii

Introduction:The Landscapeof DemographicTransition and ItsAftermathRonald D. LeeDavid S. ReherThe goal of this volume is to discuss the long-term implications of the demographic transition throughout the world. The term “demographic transition”refers to the secular shift in fertility and mortality from high and sharplyfluctuating levels to low and relatively stable ones. This historical processranks as one of the most important changes affecting human society in thepast half millennium, on a par with the spread of democratic government,the industrial revolution, the increase in urbanization, and the progressiveincreases in educational levels of human populations.During the transition, mortality typically begins to decline first, followed some decades later by fertility decline, leading to a series of changes inpopulation growth rates, size, and age distribution that continues for manydecades. This pivotal process started in many European countries and partsof the Americas well over a century ago and is currently underway in most ofthe world. The presumption is that it will eventually affect all countries.1 Nocountry has completed this process, since mortality decline will most likelycontinue, and population aging lies mainly in the future even for countrieslike Japan that are farthest along this path. The transition transforms thedemography of societies from many children and few elderly to few childrenand many elderly; from short life to long; from life-long demands on womento raise young children to the concentration of these demands in a small partof adulthood; from horizontally rich kin networks to vertically rich ones. Thetransition made possible the radical change in women’s economic and socialroles; the invention of retirement as the third stage of life; and a demographicefficiency that fostered heavy investment in the human capital of fewer butlonger-lived children. Some of these implications were visible soon after theP o p u l at i o n a n d D e v e l o p m e n t r e v i e w 3 7 ( S u pp l e m e n t ) : 1 – 7 ( 2 0 1 1 )1

2Introduction: The Landscape of Demographic Transitiontransition began, while others only became apparent much later. Some ofthese effects have been beneficial for the societies involved while others aremuch less so. Some of the major challenges facing societies today are a director indirect consequence of the demographic transition.From a strictly demographic standpoint, the entire process of transitionhas generated four changes that have deep and lasting effects for society.(1) As just mentioned, any long-term reduction in fertility will lead to lasting changes in population age structures. Initially these changes affect therelative weight of the very young in society and lead to an increase in therelative importance of working-age populations, generating what has beencalled the first demographic dividend. Further on, however, low fertilityreduces the growth rate of the working-age population and brings about atop-heavy age structure and rising old-age and total dependency.2 The pace ofpopulation aging is particularly rapid whenever there are prolonged declinesin the aggregate number of births. The process of aging may be one of themost important effects of the demographic transition as it has multiple andwide-ranging social and economic implications for society. (2) Reductions infertility coupled with increasing life expectancy have a direct effect on kingroups: the overall size of the network surrounding any given person shrinks,reducing its breadth and lengthening its generational depth. Mirroring thepopulation age distributions, before the demographic transition kin networkswere bottom-heavy, and more distant kin (cousins, uncles, aunts, etc.) playedan essential role in family life. Once fertility and mortality declined, familysize diminished, the number of lateral kin declined substantially, and parents,grandparents, and even great grandparents became increasingly importantfor family life. (3) By definition, increasing reproductive efficiency leads toa dramatic liberation in the time spent by mothers in bearing and rearingchildren. This fundamental alteration in women’s lives leads to a host ofchanges influencing women and their role in society, affecting their childrenand affecting men everywhere. (4) Substantially longer life raises the returnto investments in human capital and greatly expands the years spent at olderages, where labor supply is diminished or there is outright retirement.The nature of the demographic transition and the way it has been experienced does much to explain just how human society got to where it is today.Differences in this process also help explain differences around the worldtoday. Because the transition is a global phenomenon, the fact that variousparts of the world are at different stages of the demographic transition helpsus chart at least part of the future course among the relative newcomers toit. Forecasting the future is always risky and uncertain, but identifying thetransition as a pathway to change enables us to understand more clearly thecontexts of change to come for many countries.The chapters included in this volume address the demographic transitionand its consequences from a variety of angles. Part one reviews and analyzes

R o n a l d D . L e e / D av i d S . R e h e r3the medium- and long-term social, economic, and evolutionary implicationsof the demographic transition. Part two concentrates on the process of agingand how it affects intergenerational transfers. Part three reviews the processof demographic transition from a regional perspective with special referenceto several major developing countries. The final part of this volume containstwo overarching perspectives on the potential implications of future population decline and on the role of policy for demographic change in both pastand future.In his chapter on the social and economic implications of the demographic transition, David Reher contends that the process of demographicchange led to profound social and economic change in society through fourkey pathways: changing age structures, increased internal and internationalmigration, increased reproductive efficiency derived from declining fertilityand childhood mortality, and increased longevity. He argues in favor of demographic change as a cause rather than a consequence of social and economicchange and as a central element of modernization. He asserts that the transition opens a window of opportunity for far-reaching social and economicchange. The amount of time that this window remains open depends on thespeed of changes in vital rates. Reher concludes that for the more recent andrapid transitions, the amount of demographically favorable time availablefor economic progress before the onset of the negative consequences of thetransition in the form of aging and shrinking labor supply will be less, andthis fact may prove to be an obstacle for the successful completion of thiscycle of change.In his chapter on urbanization processes past and present, Tim Dysonargues that these processes resulted from the way in which societies experienced the demographic transition. In his view, the orthodox explanation ofurbanization as based on economic factors (such as industrialization, higherincomes, etc.) and the ability of cities to attract immigrants only identifiessubsidiary causes: the prime mover was rapidly growing surpluses in ruralpopulations caused by the intrinsic dynamics of the demographic transition.Following on his reasoning, the faster pace of demographic transition in thedeveloping world, accompanied by far higher population growth rates thanin the historic transitions, should lead to an accelerated pace of urbanization,as indeed appears to be the case. Dyson also argues that sustained economicgrowth can more reasonably be considered the consequence of urbanizationrather than its cause. In short, he suggests that mainstream accounts of boththe demographic transition and urbanization have often wrongly consideredeffects to be causes.Michael Murphy assesses the impact of changing vital rates on kin networks, using a microsimulation model to reconstruct the changing dimensionsof kin groups in Britain from 1850 to the present day. He considers how thefamily and kinship networks change in a population that moves from a re-

4Introduction: The Landscape of Demographic Transitiongime of high fertility and mortality to one with low fertility and mortality anddistinguishes between those aspects of kinship networks that are sensitive toshort-term changes in demographic rates and those that are persistent. Different age groups in society are affected differently. Although the childhoodexperiences of cohorts over the past 150 years, as reflected in ever-born sibship size, are very different, the adult experiences, as reflected in living sibshipsize, are much more similar, especially from about age 65 onward, as a resultof mortality improvement. A similar pattern holds for more distant kin. Oneof the main conclusions of this chapter is that changing fertility and mortality patterns associated with the demographic transition have effects that maytake up to a century to manifest themselves within the kinship system. Thechanging demographic regime that causes the aging of populations also entailsan aging of generational relationships: events that formerly occurred early inlife are now being delayed, such as the death of one’s parents, and some, suchas becoming a grandparent, vary substantially for different cohorts.The changing frequency and availability of kin have many consequencesfor society. Rebecca Sear and David Coall consider the consequences for fertility and for child survival and well-being, drawing on a literature in anthropology and human evolution for both pre- and post-transitional populations.They conclude that family does indeed matter for child outcomes, notablysurvival. The evidence for an effect on fertility is less clear, but they demonstrate that children in contemporary societies receive care from a different setof individuals than was typical earlier. These findings lend support to the viewthat humans are “cooperative breeders,” evolved to rely on others besidesparents for reproductive success. The comparative importance of particularrelatives varies from population to population.Part two of this volume contains three chapters addressing aspects ofpopulation aging, one of the most visible implications of the demographictransition. Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason use data from National TransferAccounts, a large international project they direct, to measure changing economic behavior over the life cycle and changing economic relations amonggenerations. Income is reallocated from the surplus generated in the workingyears to rear children and to support the elderly, either through the family orthrough the public sector, leading to upward and downward income flowsacross the age distribution. After averaging out these flows, the directionof the net income flows shifts from downward (from older to younger) inlow-income countries to upward (from younger to older) in many of therich industrial countries. Lee and Mason show that this shift in direction ismainly due to population aging in the rich countries, and therefore is rootedin the demographic transition. Family transfers (“wealth flows”) are stronglydownward in all countries.Luis Rosero-Bixby also uses data from the National Transfer Accountsto examine the profile of intergenerational transfers in five Latin American

R o n a l d D . L e e / D av i d S . R e h e r5countries. He concludes that in this region consumption by children is financed fundamentally by the family and to a lesser extent by governments,while at older ages consumption is financed mostly by individual assets and,again to a lesser extent, by public transfers. When combining these expenditure profiles based on recent experience with the probable course of population aging over the coming decades, he argues that the perception that theelderly will be a burden for their children is largely a myth because they arerelatively well-off, receive substantial governmental trans

Achievers and Laggards in Demographic Transition: A Comparison of Indonesia and Nigeria 191 . Implications of the Demographic Transition” held in Madrid, Spain, in Septem-ber 2009. The meeting was organized and sponsored by the Fundación Ramón . to raise young children to the concentration of these demands in a small part

Related Documents:

social security systems and increasing healthcare expenditures. Using panel data for 178 countries across 18 years to capture the state of fiscal balance and data on demographic transition, we estimate three models to analyze the relationships between (i) demographic transition and government balance, (ii) demographic transition and

National Demographic and Health Survey, please contact The 2017 Philippines National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS 2017) is the sixth Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) conducted in the Philippines as part of The DHS Program and the 11 national demographic survey conducted since 1968. The survey is designed to provide

2.5. The Demographic Transition Model—Explain the DTM to understand population change. Pages: 56–63 Skill 3.B . Activity: The Demographic Transition Model CR6 In this lesson, students break down the different stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) and determine the stage for present-day countries based on statistical data. Skill:

iors. They explore the effects of no consequences and negative consequences; we examine the effects of pos itive consequences and negative consequences. They al lowed respondents only the opportunity to reprimand the salesperson or to choose the "no action" option; we add to these options the alternative of rewarding the sales

CHAPTER 4: STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESSFUL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTION 10 4.1. Define Goals for Data Collection 10 4.2. Engage Senior Leadership 12 4.3. Engage Patients/Clients and Staff 12 4.4. Maintain Ongoing Evaluation 14 CHAPTER 5: DESIGN DEMOGRAPHIC DATA COLLECTION MODEL 16 5.1. Demographic Questions 16 5.2.

The notion of a second demographic transition, introduced in 1986 by Dick van de Kaa and myself in a short article in the Dutch sociology journal "Mens en Maatschappij", has been criticized from different angles. First, the SDT would merely be the continuation of the one and only transition (e.g. Cliquet, 1992).

Taking Advantage of Transition Bhutan has made signifi cant socioeconomic progress including raising per capita income and consumption, partly thanks to its favorable demography. This policy brief provides an overview of the concept of demographic dividend. It presents a view of where Bhutan is in terms of reaping the gains from its

Required Texts: Harris, Ann Sutherland. Seventeenth Century Art and Architecture, 1st or 2nd edition will work, only 2nd edition available in book store Harr, Jonathan. The Lost Painting: The Quest for a Caravaggio Masterpiece. Optional Text: Scotti, R.A. Basilica: The Splendor and the Scandal: The Building of St. Peters’s; Barnett, Sylvan.