The Impact Of Covid-19 On Zambian Enterprises

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REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIABusiness Survey Reportthe Impact of Covid-19 onZambian Enterprises

Table of ContentList of FiguresiiForeword1Acknowledgment2Executive Summary31.0 Introduction61.1Situational Analysis61.2SWOT Analysis71.3Objective9SURVEY DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY103.0 Limitations124.0 Findings134.1 Demographic profile of Enterprise Main Respondents134.2 Impact of Covid-19 on the Employment164.3 Impact of Covid-19 on the Business Revenue194.4 Impact of Covid-19 on the operations of Businesses204.5 Significant challenges faced by business markets due to Covid-19224.7 Support needed by business294.8 Support by Businesses to the Government in its fight against Covid-19315.0 Policy Recommendations325.1 Government:325.2 Enterprises:345.3 Financial institutions345.4 Commercial partners:345.5 The international community:35Annex 1: A summary of policies released by the Zambian government during the Covid-19outbreak to support enterprises38Annex 2: Survey43Annex 3: Sustainable Development Goals53Annex 4: Analysis of Frequencies for Covid-19 Survey 202054Annex 5: Tables for Covid-19 Survey 202062

List of tablesTable 1: Gender and Age group of respondents13Table 2: Sector Respondents by Province62Table 3: Number of employees per sector before COVID 19 outbreak63Table 4: Number of employees by sector during the Covid-19 pandemic64Table 5: Impact of the COVID 19 pandemic on revenue of businesses65Table 6: Recommendations by businesses on how to reactivate (Short term, Mediumterm and Longterm)66Table 7: Other Services67List of FiguresFigure 1: Respondents by province11Figure 2; Position of Respondents in a company13Figure 3: Respondents by Province14Figure 4: Number of respondents per sector14Figure 5: Sector Respondents by Province15Figure 6: Number of employees per sector before Covid-19 outbreak16Figure 7: Number of employees per sector during Covid-19 outbreak17Figure 8: Number of employees per sector during Covid-19 outbreak17Figure 9: Employees covered by health Insurance18Figure 10: Health Insurance Provision18Figure 11: Impact of Covid-19 on the Business Revenue19Figure 12: Impact of Covid-19 on the Business Revenue19Figure 13: Impact of Covid-19 on the operations of business (by sector)20Figure 14: Impact on business operations (Overall)20Figure 15: Impact of Covid-19 on business operations by Province21Figure 16: Respondents according to preferred communication channel21Figure 17: Significant challenges faced by business markets22Figure 18: Loss of customers due to Covid-1922Figure 19: Loss of customers due to Covid-19 (by Province)23Figure 20: Measures taken by businesses23Figure 21: Measures regarding operating costs24ii

Figure 22: Measures to close business indefinitely (by Province)24Figure 23: Measures to close business indefinitely (by sector)25Figure 24: Telework as a measure25Figure 25: Hiring more employees26Figure 26: Postponed investment or growth plans as a measure27Figure 27: Measures regarding customers27Figure 28: Measures regarding suppliers28Figure 29: Impact of pandemic on future development strategy28Figure 30: Support provided31

ForewordWith the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic globally, theMinistry of Commerce, Trade and Industry working closelywith the United Nations Development Programmecommissioned a Business Survey to assess the impact ofCovid-19 on enterprises in Zambia.The Business Survey was necessitated by the need toascertain the socio-economic impact of Covid-19 on Large,Micro, Small and Medium-sized enterprises andCooperatives. Further, the survey aimed at providingevidence-based data to inform government on thenecessary measures required to help businesses cope during and beyond the Pandemic. Theinformation collected was digitally mapped and aggregated by region and size of thebusiness.Notwithstanding the difficulty of quantifying the real impact of the Covid19, due to therapidly evolving nature of the pandemic, the survey focused on understanding the possiblesocio-economic repercussions in order to propose policy recommendations aimed atmitigating the impact on the economy.It is my expectation that the report has generated sufficient information indicating the areasthat need improvement in terms of policy interventions for private sector development. Inview of the foregoing, it is in the best interest of both government and private sector to notethe findings of the study.With this Survey Report, I am confident that the Survey Results will give a clear indication ofhow business enterprises have been affected in Zambia and provide comprehensive policyactions aimed at mitigating the impact of the disease on the economy.Hon. Christopher B. Yaluma, MPMINISTER OF COMMERCE, TRADE AND INDUSTRY1

AcknowledgmentThis document is a result of extensive and comprehensiveconsultations with various stakeholders which included;Quasi Government institutions, Private Sector Associationsand Academia.The Ministry wishes to recognize and extend specialacknowledgements to the United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP) for the financial and technical supportrendered throughout the process of conceptualizing andundertaking the Business Survey. Further, I take recognitionof the enormous contributions made by my staff fromMinistry of Commerce, Trade and Industry, Zambia Chamber of Commerce and Industry(ZACCI) among others for working tirelessly in carrying out the Business Survey. My hope isthat Government and the Private Sector will work together in implementing therecommendations of the Survey.I also wish to express special gratitude to respondents from various business Institutionscountrywide for the cooperation in providing information and whose feedback we value.Mushuma MulengaPermanent SecretaryMINISTRY OF COMMERCE, TRADE AND INDUSTRY2

Executive SummaryThe 2019 novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19), was declared by the World HealthOrganization as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. The outbreak has taken a toll on people’ssafety and global economic development. As the impact of the pandemic becomes evidentworldwide, global growth forecasts are constantly being adjusted downwards. TheInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) projected annual global GDP growth to drop to 3% in2020, while the Zambian economy is now projected to contract by 2.6% in 2020 from theearlier projection of 3.6%. With the continuous spreading of Covid-19 worldwide, theoutbreak has greatly increased uncertainty and the risk of a global recession, broadly definedby the IMF as growth slipping below 2.5% a year. Supply chains have been disrupted, marketconfidence significantly damaged, consumer and investment demand is shrinking, whileglobal economic activity has weakened significantly. All these pose even greater challengesfor the resilience, governance, and international cooperation effectiveness of impactedeconomies.In Zambia, the pandemic has had a huge impact on the economy in the short run, possiblyexpanding to the medium and long run as well, owing to the negative impact on net exports,significant drop in commodity prices and tourism resulting from market global slowdownand travel restrictions. Zambian enterprises are faced with great challenges during theprevention and control stages of the outbreak, which has restricted their production andoperation activities and posed risks to operations.The Ministry of Commerce Trade and Industry with support from the United NationsDevelopment Programme (UNDP) conducted this business survey in order to assess theimpact of the Covid-19 pandemic on various enterprises in Zambia, including large, medium,small and micro enterprises (MSMEs) and cooperatives. It proposes recommendations onrelevant policies and provides baselines for international organizations to design projectsthat will assist the private sector to survive. The policy recommendations highlighted in thisreport are based on real-time evidence, gathered from the online survey conducted in May2020, covering 706 large, medium, small and micro enterprise respondents, as well as athorough review of reports and research literature published by different organizations onthe impact of the pandemic.3

Key findings in this report are as follows:(i)Covid-19 has adversely affected business operation with 71% of the respondentsindicating that they were partially closed while 14% of businesses were totally closed.Only 15% reported to have maintained normal operations.(ii)The Education, Transport and Catering and Accommodation Sectors were impactedparticularly hard compared to others like Health and Social Work, Energy amongothers. 85% of the organisations working in Education reported to be completelyclosed, while 60% of businesses in the Human Health and Social Work sectormaintained normal operations(iii)Covid-19 has caused a number of challenges to enterprises, with the most significantchallenges being loss of customers rated at 77.3 % of the total responding enterprises.Other reported challenges include supply chain cuts at 37.7%, high commodity prices/material prices reported at 36.0 % and problems with late payments at 32.3% amongothers. These challenges are expected to affect operating revenue for enterprises.(iv)To keep afloat during the pandemic period some businesses have adopted measures,ranging from communicating with employees about layoff and temporal salaryreductions reported by 37.3% of the total responding enterprises. Flexible shifts,working from home was reported by 33.6%, with those reported to have shutdowncertain productions lines and outlets rated at 22.8%), resumption of work andproduction as soon as possible at 169% among other measures.(v)The Survey noted that the majority enterprises are determined to continue theiroperations by adhering to the new normal requirement during the Covid-19 outbreak.Enterprises have further resolved to adopt new development strategy by embracingand exploration of new business models (45%), accelerating technological, productand services innovation (57%), and strengthening global reach of supply chain andexpansion of overseas market (21%). However, 7% of the total responding enterprisesreported to have failed to cope with the epidemic and expressed their intention towithdraw from the market.(vi)In terms of support, an overwhelming number of enterprises indicated that it is ofuttermost important for government to come up with policy decisions that willsupport the business environment to economically re-activate business operationsuch as cash grants (76%), followed by loan facilities (51%), equipment (45%),improvements to market access (44%), improved information about markets andprices (41%), digital media training (23%, alternative payment methods to cash (16%)and legal support (13%).4

(vii)Enterprises also look forward to more government support on offering access toaffordable financing and flexible payment periods, clearing of outstanding paymentto suppliers of goods and services, and offer relief from payment of statutoryobligations (ZRA, NAPSA and Council Levy) for a period.(viii) On the other side business are also willing to support government in its fight againstCovid-19 in several ways. Thirty-seven per cent of the businesses indicated that theywould support government in its fight against Covid-19 through communication; thatis by disseminating information about Covid-19 to communities. About 16% of thebusiness in the survey indicated that they would assist government in kind, that is byproviding goods like hand soap, protective clothing or other materials in addition todisseminating information on Covid-19. About 8% opted for the assistance,supporting it in different way (other ways) other than communication, transport,finance and provision of goods and services.5

1.0 IntroductionThe 2019 novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19), was declared by the World HealthOrganization as a pandemic on 11thMarch 2020. The outbreak has taken a toll on people’ssafety and global economic development. As the impact of the pandemic becomes evidentworldwide, global growth forecasts are constantly being adjusted downwards. TheInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) projected annual global GDP growth to drop to 3% in2020, while the Zambian economy is now projected to contract by 2.6% in 2020 from theearlier projection of 3.6%. With the continuous spreading of Covid-19 worldwide, theoutbreak has greatly increased uncertainty and the risk of a global recession, broadly definedby the IMF as growth slipping below 2.5% a year.Supply chains have been disrupted, market confidence significantly damaged, consumer andinvestment demand are shrinking, while global economic activity has weakenedsignificantly. All these pose even greater challenges for the resilience and governance ofimpacted economies.In view of the above, the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry with support from theUnited Nations Development Programme undertook a survey to ascertain the possibleimpact of Covid-19 on Zambian Businesses and propose mitigation measures to support theeconomy during and post Covid-19 pandemic. The survey was targeted at large, micro,medium and small enterprises as well as cooperatives.1.1 Situational AnalysisThe first case of the Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) case was recorded in Wuhan City of HubeiProvince in China. Following the wide and continued spread of the virus around the world,the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of the Covid-19 a Global PublicHealth Emergency on 30th January 2020. In response to the WHO pronouncement, theGovernment of the Republic of Zambia through the Ministry of Health establishedpreventative and control measures to upscale national preparedness, surveillance andresponse to the threat of the outbreak.These preventative measures were implemented with support from cooperating partnersand included the the National Public Health Emergency Operations Center (PHEOC)Screening of all international passengers at all point of entry and following up thosefrom high risk countries for 14 daysDesignated isolation facilities at district level across the countryEnhanced Laboratory testing capacities in hospitalsEnhanced public awareness through radio, TV, and social Media platformsEstablishment of a call center to report concerns and receive information on thedisease.Facilitated specialized training for key healthcare workers and surge staff includingimmigration, customs, defense, security and point of entry personnelEstablished an Emergency Fund to provide resources for Covid-19 preparedness,surveillance and response.6

On 18th March 2020, Zambia reported the first cases of Covid-19 and to prevent the furtherspread of the disease, the government directed the closure of all schools, Colleges andUniversities. Following the progressive increase in the COVID-19 cases after the initialreported cases in the country, the Government instituted the following measures; review of issuance of Visas for travelers to Zambia from countries affected by theCovid-19Screening and quarantining of travelers who exhibit symptoms of Covid-19 for 14days at their own costs in a designated medical facility for treatment.Suspension of non-essential foreign travelRestriction of public gathering to at least 50 people subject to complying with PublicHealth Authority GuidelinesAdjustment of normal operations of restaurants to only operate on takeaway anddelivery basis.Closure of all Bars, Night Clubs, Cinemas, Gyms and Casinos.Closure of all international airports except for Kenneth Kaunda International Airportto ensure efficient and effective screening of travelers.According to the Ministry of Finance, the Zambian economy like many other countries hasbeen affected negatively by the Covid-19 pandemic. Zambia’s economy for 2020 wasprojected to grow at 3.2% before the pandemic. Taking into context the effect of thepandemic on the economy, the growth is now projected to be lower at around 2.0%. Thetourism, mining, manufacturing, construction as well as wholesale and retail trade sectorsare projected to slow down particularly. This is expected to reduce Government revenuesunder the 2020 budget, due to the decline in the Collections under VAT, Customs Duties,income Tax and Mineral royalty.The economic slowdown resulting from the measures implemented in the fight against thespread of CCovid-19 at global and regional levels has affected the prices of majorcommodities. For instance, the price of copper, major export commodity for Zambia,declined, by 23%. The decline in the copper prices has contributed to the depreciation of theZambian kwacha by more than 20% against major currencies.The partial lockdown for Zambia was both a historic and necessary step for countering thespread of the virus. In the meantime, the Government of the Republic of Zambia undertookmany initiatives to defend the country against CCovid-19. However, in order to devise aneffective strategy for fighting CCovid-19 while minimizing risks and maximizing results, it iscrucial to identify the internal and external factors correctly.1.2SWOT AnalysisA SWOT analysis has been done to assess Zambia’s current position in tackling thepandemic. This analysis examines Zambia’s Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities andThreats on the Covid-19 front and aims to come out with responses that can help battle thecrisis. This will also act as the foundation for various stakeholders to pursue and convertopportunities into strengths and prevent weaknesses from turning into threats.7

STRENGTHSWEAKNESSESFrontline staff were geared to take the new Lack of testing kits and relief materials likechallenge.medical equipment, PPE, masks, andventilatorsDonations and aid-kind received towardsLack of capacity by local manufacturers tothe Covid-19 fight from business and nonproduce testing kits and PPE making thebusiness housescountry to rely on imports.Rapid measures were undertaken such as Lack of awareness, and/or denial/mistrustimposing travel restrictions and partial among specific sections of the society onlockdown that enabled Zambia to access to the seriousness of the virusessential goods and services.All domestic/international Travelers andPsychological barrier relating to isolation:offices are mandated to undergo apeople fear the quarantine conditionscompulsory thermal screening checkAll citizens have been mandated to wear High incubation period ranging from 1 to 14face masks in publicdaysTransparent communication by theShortage of emergency healthcaregovernment/Ministry of Health led toinfrastructure and professionals: Doctor tocompliance of requisite directions given to patient ratio; hospital beds to people ratio;the masses to minimise the spread ofventilators to population evelincident Failure in contact tracing may lead tomanagement system for the Covid-19 worsening of the present situation andpreparedness responseincrease in the probability of being hit bythe second wave of Covid-19Zambia can emerge victorious in this fight Breach of partial lockdown protocols and(setting an example for other nations in the social-distancing norms (health guidelines).region on how to fight the crisis)Development of standard operating policies Increased chances of spread of infectionand procedures in the form of emergency due to high population and poverty inpreparedness and response plan for the some areas in Zambiapresent and future outbreaksInvolve start-ups, MSME, corporate R&D Higher chances of frontline workersand academic institutions for providing contracting the diseaseinnovative solutions for fighting Covid-19,poverty, gender inequality among othersEconomic stimulus facilities: K10 billion Dwindled the economy and overall growthtargeting small and medium scale of the nationindigenous businesses and tax relatedstimuliLocally produced products like vegetablesImpact on stock markets as well as a global,to be sold in Supermarkets/Chain storenation

4.2 Impact of Covid-19 on the Employment 16 4.3 Impact of Covid-19 on the Business Revenue 19 4.4 Impact of Covid-19 on the operations of Businesses 20 4.5 Significant challenges faced by business markets due to Covid-19 22 4.7 Support needed by business 29 4.8 Support by Businesses to the Government in its fight against Covid-19 31

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