The Statistical Environment Of INFORUM Models – Major .
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009The statistical environment ofINFORUM models –Major changes aheadUpdate of the informationprovided last yearJosef Richter
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Overview1.Introduction2.2.12.22.32.4New classification systemsISIC Rev. 4NACE Rev. 2CPC Rev. 2CPA 20083.Backcasting - Old data presented in new classifications4.4.14.2Revision of the System of National AccountsSNA 2003 Rev. – SNA 2008Revision of the European system of nationalaccounts ESA5.Consequences for INFORUM ModellingJosef Richter2
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009IntroductionINFORUM modelling is dependent on the available statistical data.The nature of the data and the access to the data are limiting factorsfor all modelling activities.As already mentioned last year, two major changes in the statisticalenvironment will happen in the near future:oRevision of all major classification systemsoRevision of the system of national accountsThe aim of this paper is to update the background information on thechanges in the statistical environment ahead.Emphasis will be on the European situation and in particular on theconsequences of alternative methods of backcasting.Josef Richter3
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009New classification systemsThe family of international classificationsJosef Richter4
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009New classification systemsActivity classificationsISIC Rev. 3.1ISIC Rev. 4NACE Rev. 1.1NACE Rev. 2Commodity classificationsCPC Ver. 1.1CPC Ver. 2CPA 2002CPA 2008For all classification systems and related metadata sef Richter5
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009NACE Rev. 2NACE Rev. 2 has already been established by Regulation (EC) No1893/2006. A second Regulation (EC) No 973/2007 amends 10 ECRegulations on specific statistical domains implementing the statisticalclassification of economic activities NACE Rev. 2.The implementation of the revised classifications NACE and CPA in theEU with all its far reaching consequences is carried out in a specialproject called “Operation 2007”.The implementation of the revised NACE in EU statistics also implies adisruption of all time series based on NACE Rev. 1 or NACE Rev. 1.1.In order to achieve a certain harmonization of methods in the EU, ahandbook on backcasting was produced, aiming at providinginformation to statisticians implementing NACE Rev. 2 in the EuropeanStatistical System.Josef Richter6
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009NACE Rev. 2 – Dates of implementationShort term business statistics for manufacturing already started to useNACE Rev. 2, starting with the reference year 2008.National accounts data disaggregated by NACE Rev. 2 categories willbe available from September 2011 onwards. For national accounts fivedifferent levels of aggregation are planned:Current transmission obligations have been translated asA3A6A17A31A60 Josef RichterA*3A*10A*21A*38A*647
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009NACE Rev. 2 – Dates of implementationData according to Table 1 of the Transmission Program has to beprovided back to 2000 in 2011, back to 1995 or 1990 in 2012.Tables 15 (supply table) and 16 (use table) have first to be transmittedusing the P*64 breakdown for the reference period 2008 by 31December 2011.Tables 17, 18 and 19 (symmetric input-output tables, product byproduct) have first to be transmitted using the P*64 breakdown for thereference period 2010 by 31 December 2013.For supply-use and input-output tables no backward data is requested.Josef Richter8
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009CPA 2008CPA is the EU version of the CPC. The use of CPA 2008 is mandatoryin the EU and based on Regulation (EC) No 451/2008 of the EuropeanParliament and of the Council.In the EU, product classifications for specific statistical domains (suchas PRODCOM) are linked to the CPA unless the CPA is itself used asa survey classification.Although the CPA is the European counterpart of the CPC, it differsfrom the latter not only in that it is usually more detailed, but also asregards its structure. The EU adopted the criterion of economic originfor its development, with NACE as the reference framework. Therefore,up to the fourth level (classes) the structure of CPA corresponds toNACE.Josef Richter9
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting - Old data presented in newclassifications – European situation“Backcasting” - reconstruction in terms of NACE Rev. 2 of existingstatistical time series, previously expressed in terms of NACE Rev. 1 orNACE Rev. 1.1.The NACE Regulation does not impose a specific date for the doublecoding: It only requires that statistics referring to economic activitiesperformed from 1 January 2008 onwards shall be producedaccording to NACE Rev. 2.Josef Richter10
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting - Old data presented in newclassifications – European situationEUROSTAT has published a “Back Casting Handbook” to providemethodological assistance to the Statistical Offices in the MemberStates.The methodologies presented in the “Back Casting Handbook” are notintended to be exhaustive or prescriptive.All methods presented in the EUROSTAT handbook assume that allunits recorded in the Business Register are double coded (according tothe old and the new classification) for at least one point in time.For most data in most EU Member States, at least 2008 will be the yearof "double coding".Josef Richter11
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting - Basic alternatives (1):1)Methods based on detailed re-working of individual data(micro-approaches)2)Methods based on conversion coefficients (macro-approaches)3)Methods applying interpolation between benchmarks(combined micro- and macro-approaches)Advantages of the micro-approach areo retains the structural evolution of the economy,o does not require the choice of a specific variable to work with,o working at unit level, the micro-approach ensures consistencybetween these variables; the different retropolated series areconsistent after the retropolation, as the same statistical unitconsidered in the different series will be accounted in the same wayin the retropolation framework.Only disadvantage of the micro-approach: labour intensiveJosef Richter12
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting - Basic alternatives (2):Macro-Approacheso Working on the level of raw data or on the basis of “derived data”such as indices, adjusted indices, etc.o Use of conversion matrices based on observations of one year orbased on observations over an average of years. A compromise canbe to calculate coefficients for two different points in time and tocompute the coefficients for the time points between these two byinterpolation.o Use of one set of conversion coefficients (such as a set based on thenumber of units, on value added) for all variables.o Use of variable-specific conversion coefficients (based on turnover,employment, earnings, sales, etc.)Josef Richter13
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting - Basic alternatives (3):Macro-Approacheso Level of aggregationo NACE (2-, 3-, 4-, 6-digit level)o Size classeso National versus regionalJosef Richter14
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Specific problem areas:Macro-Approacheso Stability of conversion coefficientso Change in the classification of units in the backcasting periodo Mergers and splitting of big unitsDifferences in target populationsJosef Richter15
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Consequences (1):Macro-approachesAll "historical" series will consist of three segments:1. The historical time segment where only the old classification existed.This is the segment for which conversion coefficients havebeen applied.2. The transitory time segment where the old and new classificationsare present and “double coding” was done on the unit level.For this segment, conversion coefficients can be "observed".3. The final time segment where only the new classification will beused.Josef Richter16
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Consequences (2):Macro-approachesThe coherence of time series of different variables will depend on themethod used for backcasting.The link between historic micro and macro data does not longer exist.Concepts matterJosef Richter17
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian dataShort Term Indicators ManufacturingMicro-approachDouble coding 2005 to 2008Use of the NACE 2008 directly to produce new time seriesMacro-approachUse of variable-specific conversion matrices 2005 for converting the“old” time series expressed in NACE 2003 to NACE 2008(Austria, two-digit level)- Strictly speaking not backcasting but forecastingJosef Richter18
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices TurnoverNACE 2008 11 Beverages160,00Difference16%140,00120,002005 1Josef 9
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices TurnoverNACE 2008 26 Computers160,0Difference18%140,0120,02005 100,0100,0MicroMacro80,060,040,020,00,0200501Josef 0
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices TurnoverNACE 2008 28 Machinery180,0Difference13%160,0140,02005 Josef 1
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices TurnoverNACE 2008 30 Other Transport Equipment180,0Difference2%160,0140,02005 Josef 2
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices TurnoverNACE 2008 32 Other Manufacturing250,0Difference9%2005 100,0200,0150,0MicroMacro100,050,00,0200501Josef 3
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices TurnoverNACE 2008 33 Repair of Machinery180,0Difference22%160,0140,02005 Josef 4
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices EmploymentNACE 2008 11 Beverages106,0Difference1%104,0102,02005 Josef 5
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices EmploymentNACE 2008 26 Computers115,0Difference12%110,02005 100,0105,0MicroMacro100,095,090,085,0200501Josef 6
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices EmploymentNACE 2008 28 Machinery115,0Difference4%2005 100,0110,0105,0MicroMacro100,095,090,0200501Josef 7
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices EmploymentNACE 2008 30 Other Transport Vehicles140,0Difference18%120,02005 100,0100,080,0MicroMacro60,040,020,00,0200501Josef 8
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices EmploymentNACE 2008 32 Other Manufacturing110,0Difference14%2005 100,0105,0100,0MicroMacro95,090,085,0200501Josef 9
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices EmploymentNACE 2008 33 Repair of Machinery112,0110,0Difference5%108,0106,02005 200501Josef 0
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices Turnover per EmployeeNACE 2008 11 Beverages160,00Difference18%140,00120,002005 1Josef 1
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices Turnover per EmployeeNACE 2008 26 Computers160,00Difference7%140,00120,002005 1Josef 2
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices Turnover per EmployeeNACE 2008 28 Machinery160,00Difference9%140,00120,002005 1Josef 3
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices Turnover per EmployeeNACE 2008 30 Other Transport Equipment180,00Difference25%160,00140,002005 0200501Josef 4
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices Turnover per EmployeeNACE 2008 32 Other Manufacturing250,00Difference5%2005 sef 5
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Backcasting – Concepts matterNumerical examples based on official Austrian data; Short Term Indicators ManufacturingIndices Turnover per EmployeeNACE 2008 33 Repair of Machinery180,00Difference18%160,00140,002005 0200501Josef 6
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Revision of the system of national accountsSNA 2003 Rev – SNA 2008In 2003, the UN Statistical Commission called for an update of the SNA 1993to bring the System into line with the new economic environment, withadvances in methodological research and to remove inconsistencies in theSNA 1993.The revision is sometimes called SNA 2003 Rev, sometimes SNA 2008.Early in the revision process general agreement was reached that therevision should deal with issues emerging from new economic developmentssuch as globalisation, but that no fundamental changes should be made inthe System.A close coordination of the update of the 1993 SNA and the revision of theBalance of Payments Manual, Fifth Edition was another goal.Josef Richter37
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Revision of the system of national accountsSNA 2003 Rev – SNA 2008The majority of the recommendations relate toounits and transactions that represent characteristics of anincreasingly globalized economy;ocome from increased interest in the sources of wealth and debt;orecognize the increasing role of intangible nonfinancial assets;otake into account further innovation in financial markets;oreflect the interest in better measures of the impact of pensionliabilities in the context of an ageing population;orecognize the need for better measures of government and publicsector debt and deficit.Josef Richter38
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Revision of the system of national accountsSNA 2003 Rev – SNA 2008The revised SNA will be provided in a two-part delivery.Volume 1 was adopted by the UN Statistical Commission in March 2008.Volume 1 comprises the full set of chapters that represent the SNAframework in terms of accounting conventions, the accounts, and theintegration of the accounts.Volume 2 comprises mainly the interpretation of the accounts and variousextensions such as satellite accounts. Volume 2 was adopted in February2009.Pre-edit, white-cover versions of Volume 1 and Volume 2 are available arev1.aspJosef Richter39
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Revision of the system of national accountsSNA 2003 Rev – SNA 2008Main changesIssue 40 Goods for processingImports and exports should be recorded on a strict change of ownershipbasis. Goods being processed in one country on behalf of a unit residing inan another country would no longer be part of imports and exports in thebalance of payments and SNA.This decision has implications for the input-output tables, which on theproposed basis will reflect what each unit contributes to the productionprocess rather than the physical technology, as it was the case before.Josef Richter40
17th International INFORUM Conference, Jūrmala, September 7 to September 12, 2009Revision of the system of national accountsEuropean system of national accounts ESAIn the European Union national accounting is governed by legally bindingregulations because results of national accounts are to a large extent directlyused for operational/administrative purposes.The European system of national accounts ESA is br
1. Introduction 2. New classification systems 2.1 ISIC Rev. 4 2.2 NACE Rev. 2 2.3 CPC Rev. 2 2.4 CPA 2008 3. Backcasting - Old data presented in new classifications 4. Revision of the System of National Accounts 4.1 SNA 2003 Rev. – SNA 2008 4.2 Revision of the European system of national accounts ESA 5. Consequences for INFORUM Modelling .
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