APCAT2008 44 Sabbioni Report Jan09 EN - Coe.int
Strasbourg, 20 November 2008AP/CAT (2008) 44European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement (EUR-OPA)VULNERABILITY OF CULTURAL HERITAGETO CLIMATE CHANGEReportbyC. SABBIONIInstitute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council, Bologna, ItalyM. CASSARCentre for Sustainable Heritage, University College London, UKP. BRIMBLECOMBEUniversity of East Anglia, UKR.A. LEFEVREUniversity of Paris XII, France
2INDEXExecutive summary3INTRODUCTION41. ACTIONS BY INSTITUTIONS IN FACING THE RISK OF CLIMATECHANGE TO CULTURAL HERITAGE1.1.1.2.1.3.1.4.1.5.1.6.1.7.UNESCOEuropean CommissionEuropean ParliamentCouncil of EuropeCentre for Sustainable Heritage (University College London)EU Noah’s Ark ProjectEuropean University Centre for Cultural Heritage (Ravello, Italy)56667782. RISK ANALYSES2.1. General Methodology2.2. Impact of climate factors on cultural heritage2.3. EU Noah’s Ark Project2.3.1.2.3.2.2.3.3.2.3.4.Methodological approachDescription and prediction of the global impact of climate change onbuilding materials and structuresMitigation and adaptation strategies options for climate change impactsDissemination of information on climate change effects and adaptationstrategies on the built heritage and cultural landscapes91012121315163. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT3.1. Basic scientific research3.2. Applied research19204. RECOMMENDATION4.1. Research4.1.1.4.1.2.4.1.3.FundingCooperation and competitivenessCritical mass4.2. Policy4.2.14.2.2Global levelEuropean level4.3. Training4.3.1.4.3.2.Building scientific capacityKnowledge transfer to practice5 REFERENCES2121212122222222222324
3Executive summaryEurope has assumed a leadership role in establishing research projects (e.g. NOAH’s ARK)on the impact of climate change on cultural heritage, in an era of improving urban air quality.The work performed has taken a uniquely quantitative approach, and established the greatimportance of water as a threat to heritage, despite temperature being so often identified as thekey aspect of climate change. The threat from water is revealed as intense rain, flood, or stormsurges. Increased rainfall can overload roofing and gutters, penetrate traditional materials (e.g.thatch, cob, wattle-and-daub, etc) or deliver pollutants to building surfaces, while floodingbrings catastrophic loss. In a more subtle, yet more pervasive way, changes in humidityaffects the growth of microorganisms on stone and wood, and the formation of salts thatdegrade surfaces and influence corrosion. Despite the intense periodic nature of futurerainfall, drier summers overall will increase salt weathering of stone, and desiccate the soilsthat protect archaeological remains and support the foundations of buildings.Future research work required in the area of climate change and cultural heritage is clusteredunder 5 themes, namely:1. understanding the vulnerability of materials to climate, to reliably assessed futureimpact2. monitoring change, especially on decadal and even century-long time scales3. modeling and projecting changes in heritage climate at high spatial and temporalresolution, with a estimate of reliability4. developing tools to manage cultural heritage in a changing climate5. preventing damage by developing long term strategies.
4INTRODUCTIONIn a world where climate is changing, our heritage will be faced with a range of new pressuresthat are quite different to those experienced in the past. Management practices will have toevolve to reduce the impact of novel threats and to recognise the need for a shift fromdamage mechanisms like air pollution, towards a different biological and physical processthat will give rise to damage forms that are expected to be different from those of the lastcentury.The present Report is based on the results achieved within the project Noah’s Ark on “GlobalClimate Change Impact on Built Heritage and Cultural Landscapes". funded by the EuropeanCommission under its 6th Framework Programme for Research.In addition to the Deliverables produced within the Noah’s Ark hp), the following documents have been taken intoaccount:Report n 22 of the UNESCO World Heritage Centre: «Climate Change and WorldHeritage Report on predicting and managing the impacts of climate change on WorldHeritage and Strategy to assist States Parties to implement appropriate managementresponse» Paris, May 2007, 55 p.; (http://whc.unesco.org/en/activities/474/)The Report entitled «Climate Change and the Historic Environment: AdaptingHistoric Environments to Moisture-Related Climate Change», M. Cassar 082/01/Publish Climate Change Report 05.pdf)Report « Engineering Historic Futures Stakeholders Dissemination and ScientificResearch Report» M. Cassar (2006)http://www.ucl.ac.uk/sustainableheritage/ehf report web.pdf)The present Report will include the state of the art, future developments andrecommendations.
51. ACTIONS BY INSTITUTIONS IN FACING THE RISK OF CLIMATECHANGE TO CULTURAL HERITAGE1.1. UNESCOOne of the most intractable problems facing those responsible for world heritage is that ofclimate change, especially for the 878 natural and cultural world heritage properties (as on20th September 2008), listed for their outstanding universal value following the adoption ofthe Convention on the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural n.pdf) by the General Conference of UNESCO atits seventeenth session Paris, 16 November 1972. They include 679 cultural, 174 natural and25 mixed properties in 145 state parties to the Convention.The issue of the impact of climate change on World Heritage natural and cultural properties(UNESCO, 2007), was brought to the attention of the 29th Session of the World HeritageCommittee in Durban in 2005 by a group of concerned organisations and individuals,including environment groups. The said group petitioned the Committee that climate changethreatens the continued existence of five key World Heritage sites: the Belize and GreatBarrier Reefs, glaciers in Waterton-International Peace Park (in the US and Canada), MountEverest and the Peruvian Andes. The World Heritage Committee requested the WorldHeritage Centre of UNESCO, in collaboration with its Advisory Bodies (IUCN, ICOMOSand ICCROM), interested State Parties and the petitioners who had drawn the attention of theCommittee to this issue, to convene a broad working group of experts on the impact ofclimate change on World Heritage. The Committee took this decision noting “that theimpacts of Climate Change are affecting many and are likely to affect many more worldheritage properties, both natural and cultural in years to come”.The Committee requested the broad working group of experts to: review the nature and scale of the risks posed to World Heritage properties arisingspecifically from Climate Change;jointly develop a strategy to assist State Parties to implement appropriate managementresponses; andprepare a joint report on Predicting and Managing the Effects of Climate Change onWorld Heritage to be examined by the World Heritage Committee at its 30th session inVilnius in 2006.The expert meeting took place on 16 and 17 March, 2006 at the UNESCO headquarters inParis and resulted in the preparation of a report on predicting and managing the effects ofclimate change on World Heritage, as well as a strategy to assist States Parties to the WorldHeritage Convention to implement appropriate management responses. A case studypublication was also produced by the World Heritage Centre to raise awareness of this issue(UNESCO, 2008a).At its 30th session in Vilnius in July 2006, the World Heritage Committee reviewed these twodocuments and took the decision to request all the States Parties to implement the strategy soas to protect the outstanding universal values, integrity and authenticity of the World Heritagesites from the adverse impacts of climate change.The Committee also requested the World Heritage Centre, the Advisory Bodies and StatesParties to develop and implement pilot projects at specific World Heritage sites, especially in
6developing countries, so as to define best practices for the implementation of the strategy. TheWorld Heritage Committee further requested the World Heritage Centre to develop, through aconsultative process, a policy paper on Climate Change and World Heritage, which waspresented to it at the 31st session in Christchurch in 2007 (UNESCO, 2008b).The policy paper, prepared at an expert meeting held at the UNESCO World Heritage Centrein Paris in February 2007, included considerations of the synergies between the Conventionand this issue, the identification of future research needs, legal questions on the role of theWorld Heritage Convention with regard to suitable responses to climate change, linkages toother UN and international bodies, including the IPCC, and alternative mechanisms, otherthan the List of World Heritage in Danger, to address international concerns such as climaticchange. The World Heritage Committee meeting in Christchurch in July 2007 accepted thispolicy document in its Decision 31 Com 7.1 2007 (UNESCO, 2008c).1.2. European CommissionIn the 6th Framework Programme for Research and Development, the European Commissionapproved and financed a project on the topic of climate change: Noah’s Ark («Global ClimateChange Impact on Built Heritage and Cultural Landscapes», 2004-2007,http://noahsark.isac.cnr.it). The project will be described in § 2.3.At the time of the preparation of the present report no announcement has been made regardingthe 2nd call of 7th Framework Programme, which deals with “Development and application ofmethodologies, technologies, models and tools for damage assessment, monitoring andadaptation to climate change impacts (excluding extreme events)”. This, together with thepotential national programmes such as the AHRC/EPSRC Science and Heritage Programmein the United Kingdom, offers the opportunity for new research on both the fundamentals andapplication of research results to management practice.1.3. European ParliamentOn 10 September 2007 the coordinator of the Noah’s Ark project was called to give evidenceon “Global climate change impact on our cultural heritage” to the European ParliamentTemporary Committee on Climate Change for the first public hearing on "Climate impact ofdifferent levels of warming".1.4. Council of EuropeClimate change is cited among the strategic orientations by Robert Palmer, Director ofCulture and Cultural and Natural Heritage (http://www.coe.int/t/dg4/cultureheritage ). Withthe present report, this international institution is directly and specifically engaging with theeffects of climate change on cultural heritage. It has however done so previously in anindirect way through its involvement in sustainable development. This is the case of theConvention on Cultural Heritage formulated on initiative of the Council of Europe, that ofFaro (2005), on the Value of Cultural Heritage for Society.In 2008, the interest of the Council of Europe in the problematic was renewed by theExecutive Secretary of the European and Mediterranean Major Hazards Agreement whoorganized a side event entitled “Cultural Heritage and Risk: some European experiences”within the International Disaster and Risk Conference held in Davos, Switzerland, where a
7oral presentation was given concerning the “On-going initiatives to assess the impact ofclimate change on Cultural Heritage”.The Council of Europe sustains and funds the activities of the European University Centre forCultural Heritage, Ravello, Italy, especially in the organisation of courses on the risks ofclimate change for cultural heritage (see §1.7 below).1.5. Centre for Sustainable Heritage (University College London)In 2005 the Centre published a report by May Cassar, titled “Climate Change and the HistoricEnvironment“(Cassar, 2005), which was commissed by English Heritage. The central body ofthe report analyses the answers to a questionnaire sent out to British cultural heritagemanagers and decision-makers.This first report was followed in 2006 by a second, based on British national research, entitled“Engineering Historic Futures Stakeholders Dissemination and Scientific Research Report”(Cassar and Hawkings, 2006).The spirit of these studies and many of their results were integrated into the Noah’s ArkProject, financed by the European Commission, in which the Centre played a major role. It istherefore unnecessary to discuss the earlier findings here. Suffice it to say that the Centre forSustainable Heritage continues to be highly active in Europe on issues relating to climatechange and cultural heritage.1.6. EU Noah’s Ark ProjectThis project brought together the main European scientific laboratories engaged in researchon cultural heritage in the context of climate change, together with an international insurancecompany and a private company specialising in recovery from environment disasters. Thescientific publications that have already been published (Sabbioni et al., 2006; Brimblecombeet al. 2006, 2007; Grossi and Brimblecombe, 2007; Grossi et al. 2007; Blades et al., 2008) andthose to follow, will report the results of this important study, the first on this series of issues.Those involved were research teams engaged for many years in the study of the degradationof cultural heritage due to air pollution, who have transferred their experience to climatechange. They therefore have an excellent knowledge of materials, and some of them, also ofatmospheric and climatic phenomena. They are : Istituto di Scienze dell’ Atmosfera e del Clima of the National Research Council (ISACCNR, Bologna, Italy): Cristina Sabbioni (project coordinator), Alessandra Bonazza,Palmira Messina; Centre for Sustainable Heritage, University College London (UCL, London, UK): MayCassar, Phillip Biddulph, Nigel Blades; University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences (UEA, Norwich, UK):Peter Brimblecombe, Carlotta Grossi; Corrosion and Metals Research Institute (KIMAB, Stockholm, Sweden): JohanTidblad; Institute of Catalysis and Surface Chemistry, Polish Academy of Sciences (ICSC,Kracovia, Poland) : Roman Kozlowski, Lukasz Bratasz, Slawomir Jakiela; Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, Czech Academy of Sciences (ITAM,Prague, Czech Republic): Drdacky, Zuzana Slizkova;
8 Instituto de Recursos Naturales y Agrobiologia, Consejo Superior de InvestigationesSceintificas (CSIC, Seville, Spain): Cesareo Saiz-Jimenez, Juan M. Gonzales Grau; Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning (NILU, Kjeller, Norway): Terje Grontoft, GauteSvenningsen; Ecclesiastical Insurance Group (EIG, Gloucester, UK): Ian Wainwright, ChrisHawkings; Biologia y Medio Ambiente(BMA, Barcelona, Spain): Ariño Vila Xavier, AntonioBolea.Thus, the project’s participants represent a strong body of experts in materials, atmosphericand climate sciences, who are dedicated to continuing to investigate these issues in theirresearch projects. This presumes that institutions financing research are willing to build onexisting knowledge and expertise in research in the said field.1.7. European University Centre for Cultural Heritage (Ravello, Italy)The Centre intends to include climate change and its effects on cultural heritage among itsmain concerns in the future. Currently, only two cycles of courses have dealt with this newproblem, and this only recently, in 2007, the cycle on Risks, and that on the Sciences andMaterials of Cultural Heritage.In the cycle «Cultural Heritage and Major Risks », a course was taught in 2007, whichdescribed the foreseeable risks to cultural heritage in the context of climate change and in2008 the focus was on strategies for prevention against major risks including climate change.The courses of the cycle «Sciences and Materials of Cultural Heritage», in 2007 wereentirely devoted to the topic « Global Climate Change and Cultural Heritage », notably withthe participation of three key figures from the Noah’s Ark project: Cristina Sabbioni, MayCassar, Milos Drdacky. This course is expected to run again in 2009.
92. RISK ANALYSES2.1. General methodologyThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that present day weatherconditions in Europe reveal vulnerabilities that can only be exacerbated by climate change,particularly at a regional level. Overall the adaptive potential of Europe should be relativelyhigh because of well-developed political, institutional and technological support systems.- Current pressures on water resources and management are likely to be exacerbated byclimate change- Flood hazard is likely to increase across much of Europe – except where snowmelt peakhas been reduced- Half of Europe’s alpine glaciers could disappear by the end of the 21st century, sopreparations for rescue excavations will be needed- Soil properties will deteriorate under warmer and drier climate scenarios in southernEurope, leading desertification and changes in soil chemistry affecting archaeologicalsites- Timber harvests are likely to decrease in the Mediterranean, with increased drought andfire risk- Some agricultural production systems in southern Europe may be threatened by the risk ofwater shortage- The insurance industry faces potentially costly climate change impacts through propertydamage but there is great scope for adaptive measures if early steps are taken- Human settlements concentrated on coasts exposed to sea level rises and extreme eventswill need protection or removal- Heat waves are likely to reduce the traditional peak summer demand at Mediterraneanholiday destinations and less reliable snow conditions will adversely impact on wintertourism- Risk of flooding, erosion and loss in coastal areas will increase substantially, withimplications for human settlement and tourism. Southern Europe appears to be morevulnerable, although the North Sea coast has a high exposure to flooding.
10Region1990Exposedpopulation(millions)Flood Incidence¹19902080sAverage numberIncrease due toof peoplesea-level rise,experiencingassuming noadaptation (%)flooding(1000s/year)1950 to 900010 to 30003260 to 120000Atlantic Coast19.0Baltic Coast1.4Mediterranean4.1Coast¹ Estimates of flood incidences are highly sensitive to protection standards and should be interpreted inindicative terms only2.2. Impact of climate factors on cultural heritageClimate parameters, risk factors and identified impacts are summarised in the table1 below:ClimateparametersClimate change riskPhysical, social and cultural impacts on culturalheritageAtmosphericmoisture change Flooding (sea, river)Intense rainfallChanges in water tablelevelsChanges in soil chemistryGround water changesChanges in humidity cyclesIncrease in time of wetnessSea salt chlorides 1pH changes to buried archaeological evidenceLoss of stratigraphic integrity due to cracking andheaving from changes in sediment moistureData loss preserved in waterlogged / anaerobic /anoxic conditionsEutrophication accelerating microbialdecomposition of organicsPhysical changes to porous building materials andfinishes due to rising dampDamage due to faulty or inadequate water disposalsystems; historic rainwater goods not capable ofhandling heavy rain and often difficult to access,maintain, and adjustCrystallisation and dissolution of salts caused bywetting and drying affecting standing structures,archaeology, wall paintings, frescos and otherdecorated surfacesErosion of inorganic and organic materials due toflood watersBiological attack of organic materials by insects,moulds, fungi, invasive species such as termitesSubsoil instability, ground heave and subsidenceRelative humidity cycles/shock causing splitting,cracking, flaking and dusting of materials andsurfacesCorrosion of metalsOther combined effects eg. increase in moisturecombined with fertilisers and pesticides‘Principal climate change
World Heritage Committee further requested the World Heritage Centre to develop, through a consultative process, a policy paper on Climate Change and World Heritage, which was presented to it at the 31st session in Christchurch in 2007 (UNESCO, 2008b).
MANUTENZIONI e DIFESA del SUOLO nella frazione Cereglio: avori di bitumazione di . L. Via Sabbioni, Via Cavara, Via Monzone (19.563 Euro); essa in sicurezza da caduta massi . M – Strada Comunale n.8 – Prunarolo – Cereglio, in . Loc. Spicchio (80.000 Euro). anutenzione di scoli e cunette per la raccolta
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