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ECFFEnvironment & Coffee Forest ForumCoffee Farming and ClimateChange in EthiopiaImpacts, Forecasts, Resilienceand OpportunitiesSummary Report 2017

The Strategic Climate InstitutionsProgramme (SCIP)The SCIP Fund was designed to buildEthiopia’s capacity to cope with climatechange across the public, private and civilsociety sectors and to respond to thechallenges of transitioning to a ClimateResilient Green Economy (CRGE).Building a climate-resilient coffeeeconomy for EthiopiaA two-year SCIP project undertaken bythe Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, and theEnvironment and Coffee Forest Forum (ECFF),and partners. The aim of the project was toprovide a climate-resilient coffee economystrategy for Ethiopia, based on a rigorousassessment of the influence of climatechange on coffee-producing areas and wildcoffee forests. The climate resilient strategywas developed in close partnership withstakeholders, including government andnon-government bodies, coffee producersand industry. A summary of the strategy ispresented here as the report Coffee Farmingand Climate Change in Ethiopia – Impacts,Forecasts, Resilience and Opportunities.Front and back cover picture: Sorting coffee by handLeaves of Arabica coffee

Coffee Farming and Climate Changein Ethiopia: Key messages1The coffee growing landscape ofEthiopia is varied and complexCoffee farming in Ethiopia takes place over avast area, under a wide variety of productionsystems and various growing conditions,with many different cultivation practices.2The climate of Africa and Ethiopiahas changed and will continue tochange throughout this centuryThe climate of Africa and Ethiopia haschanged. Ethiopia has experienced anincrease in temperature of around 0.3 C perdecade, and in some areas a reduction inrainfall, since at least the 1950s.34Feedback from coffee farming communities,and observations on coffee production andcoffee plant stress, indicate that climatechange has already had a negative impact.In some coffee areas, there has beendramatic forest loss.Many areas that are suitable for coffeegrowing in the present day will become lesssuitable in the future, and in some casesunsuitable. Conversely, substantial areasthat were previously unsuitable for coffeefarming will become suitable.56Coffee growing in Ethiopia has beennegatively influenced by climatechange and deforestationRelocation of coffee farms/areaswill be a key component in buildingresilience for the Ethiopian coffeeeconomyMany higher altitude areas will become moresuitable for coffee production throughoutthis century. Migration to these areas will bevital for ensuring resilience in the Ethiopiancoffee sector.Climate change will continue toimpact and alter coffee growing inEthiopia over the coming decadesAppropriate adaptation measurescould ensure resilience for manycoffee farmersOn-farm adaptation and improvementsin coffee farming practices could ensureresilience for many farmers.1

Fruits of Arabica coffee, ripening2

ContentsThe coffee growing landscape of Ethiopiais varied and complexCoffee growing in EthiopiaCoffee consumption in EthiopiaCoffee farming systemsCoffee producing regions and areasOverview of Ethiopia’s coffee growing climateAfrica and Ethiopia’s climate has changedand will continue to changeObserved changesPredicted future changeCoffee growing in Ethiopia has been negativelyinfluenced by climate change666681013131620Present-day suitability for coffee growing in EthiopiaFeedback from coffee farmers and direct observation2021Climate change will continue to impactand alter coffee growing in Ethiopia overthe coming decades24Climate change modelling for coffee productionin Ethiopia. 1960 to 209924Relocation of coffee farms/areas will bea key component in building resiliencefor the Ethiopian coffee economy30Appropriate adaptation measures couldensure resilience for many coffee farmers31Main recommendations32References33Endnotes35Overview of methods363

Coffee Farmingand ClimateChange in EthiopiaIntroduction4

1The coffee growinglandscape of Ethiopiais varied and complex2Africa and Ethiopia’sclimate has changed andwill continue to changeSorting coffee by hand5

1The coffee growing landscape ofEthiopia is varied and complexCoffee growing in EthiopiaCoffee consumption in EthiopiaIn its wild state, Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) isa forest plant restricted to the highlands of Ethiopiaand a small area in neighbouring South Sudan[1]. Ithas been used in Ethiopia as a food and beveragefor many hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Thus,Ethiopia can be considered as the biological andcultural home of coffee. Its early use was no doubtrestricted to gathering fruits from the wild forests, withsemi-domestication possibly coming soon afterwards.Today, an estimated 525,000 hectares (5,250 km2)of coffee are planted in Ethiopia[2], although the actualarea is probably in excess of 20,000 km2. Coffeeprovides Ethiopia with its most important agriculturalcommodity, contributing around one quarter of itstotal export earnings[3]. In 2014/15 Ethiopia exportedaround 180,000 metric tonnes of coffee[4] at avalue estimated to be in excess of 800 million USD.Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffee producer and theworld’s fifth largest exporter of Arabica coffee[4],even though yields (kg/hectare) are low comparedto other producing countries. Coffee farming aloneprovides a livelihood income for around 15 millionEthiopians (16% of the population), based on fourmillion smallholder farms [2, 3, 5]. For many of thesefarmers, coffee is their single most importantsource of income.Ethiopia is unique among the world’s coffeeproducing countries in that around 50% of the coffeeit produces stays within the domestic market, forconsumption by Ethiopians. Drinking is not justpart of everyday life, it is also deeply embeddedin Ethiopian culture. Apart from the well-knownEthiopian coffee ceremony, coffee is used at majorevents such as marriage and birth, regionally-specificcelebrations, and as a medium to build and sustainrelationships between family, friends and community.Ethiopia is the main storehouse of genetic diversity forArabica coffee, and this has several key implications.For the coffee sector and consumers, the mostnotable of these is the broad diversity of flavourprofiles exhibited by Ethiopian coffees. These profilesare associated with geographical location (which isoften referred to as ‘origin’, in a similar way as ‘terroir’is used in the wine industry) and factors associatedwith harvesting and processing. Included amongthese origins are the well-known coffees of Sidamo,Yirgacheffe, Harar, Nekemte and Limu, but there arenumerous lesser-known coffee regions that haveequally distinct flavour profiles. The range of flavourprofiles adds a unique element to Ethiopian coffee,and makes it especially well-suited to developmentwithin the speciality coffee market. As we will seebelow, Ethiopian coffee production offers protection forbiodiversity and other environmental benefits.6Coffee farming systemsEthiopian coffee is mainly grown under the shade oftrees (shade or forest coffee), either within forestor forest-like environments, or in farming systemsthat incorporate specific shade plants – usuallyindigenous (native) trees, or sometimes fruit treesand other crop plants. In some areas coffee isgrown with little or no shade (sun coffee). Forest(shade) coffee and sun coffee can be consideredas the two main coffee production systems inEthiopia. Irrigation is confined to few locations,and mostly where water is easily available and canbe diverted to the farm using simple means (e.g.diversion from rivers using trenches). Irrigation ismainly practiced in Amhara and Benishangul-GumuzRegions, and the north east part of OromiaRegion in the Harar coffee zone (See Figure1, Table 1). The use of chemical inputs, suchas pesticides, fungicides and artificial fertilisersis rarely practiced, and although certification isnot common[5], Ethiopian coffee can often beconsidered as organic by default, and may indeedexceed the standards set for organic certification.Coffee farming alone provides alivelihood income for around 15 millionEthiopians (16% of the population),based on four million smallholder farms.

Forest (shade) coffee can be divided into two broad categories: forest coffee andsemi-forest coffee. The forest coffee system uses wild stands of coffee, which exist naturally withinthe forest, and the farmer undertakes minimal management and intervention. Semi-forest coffee ismore intensive, with increased farming interventions (e.g. thinning of trees, understory clearanceand weed cutting, and planting of coffee seedlings).Sun coffee farming systems are usually small and mostly fall into the category of coffeegardens, which are planted in a regular-sized plot at high density. Sun coffee is usually found athigher altitudes (1700–2100 m), often near dwellings, and is characteristic of coffee farming inthe Harar coffee zone.Coffee gardens are often planted close to dwellings and range from a few plants up to aplot of around 100 plants. Coffee gardens are usually part of a mixed cropping system and providecoffee for the household, local consumption or the wider market. Coffee gardens are planted ineither shade or sun.Agroforestry systems are typically family run, of between a quarter and one hectare, andcomprise a wide variety of crops in association with indigenous (native) forest cover. The coffeeis usually grown under the shade of indigenous trees with other crops on the margins, or in moreopen places. In the Sidamo area (including Yirgacheffe), coffee is almost exclusively producedwithin an intensively-managed agroforestry system.Coffee farms/plots are dedicated to coffee growing for profit, and are typically aroundone to two hectares, sometimes less (a quarter hectare) or more (five hectares). The area ismostly dedicated to coffee growing, with few other crops, or may be intercropped, as in agroforestrysystems. Most coffee farms use shade, provided by tree cover, but some are situated in partial tofull sun.Coffee plantations are large and intensively-managed systems, mostly planted withinforest (shade). There is no definitive size limit for a plantation but generally they are more than tenhectares. Large commercial plantations (e.g. over 500 hectares) are uncommon and contributeless than 5% of exportable production.7

Coffee producing regionsand areasWithin Ethiopia, coffee is produced within specificagro-ecological zones over numerous politicaldivisions. Most coffee is grown in areas of humid(moist) evergreen forest. This type of rainforestis found at 650–2600 m above sea level[6], withcoffee mainly confined to altitudes of 1200–2100m. These forests are cool-tropical, distinctlyseasonal (Figure 2), and mostly comprise evergreentrees and shrubs, with a high diversity of otherplants and associated fauna. In some highlandareas, mostly at the higher range for Arabica coffee(1900–2100 m), coffee farming is undertaken ina drier type of vegetation, dominated by evergreentrees or shrubs, and common native coniferousspecies[6], particularly in the Harar coffee zone.The main coffee growing areas (Figure 1) arefound within Oromia Region and Southern Nations,Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR), withmodest production in Amhara Region and minoroutput in Benishangul-Gumuz Region. In thisdocument, we have divided the coffee lands intofive coffee zones, and 16 coffee areas (Table 1,Figure 1).Position in EthiopiaMain coffee zoneNorthWest of Rift ValleySouth WestRift ValleyRiftSouth EastEast of Rift ValleyHararThe majority of coffee production is from the largelyforested main coffee zone of the South West,followed by the Sidamo (including Yirgacheffe)coffee area in the South East coffee zone. Hararwas once a major producing area but has declinedconsiderably since the 1960s, and possibly decadesbefore. The other coffee zones (Rift and North;Table 1, Figure 1) are modest to minor producerscompared to the South West and Sidamo.Drying washed coffee (parchment)Coffee areaRegion OromiaTepiSNNPR and Gambela*KaffaSNNPRBench-MajiSNNPRRift NorthSNNPR and Oromia*Rift SouthSNNPRSidamo (including Yirgacheffe)SNNPR and Oromia*BaleOromiaCentral Eastern HighlandsOromiaArsiOromiaWest HarargeOromiaEast HarargeOromiaTable 1. Main coffee zones and areas and their position within Ethiopia. See Figure 1.Notes: * Minor part of region only. SNNPR Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region.8

Eritrea"Shire (Inda Silase)"YemenMekeleSudan"Gondar""North""South WestIllubaborTepi""Nekemte"Mizan TeferiBench MajiAmbo"Debre BirhanAddis Ababa"ArsiJimma-Limu Rift NorthJimma"Rift"Asbe TeferiDire Dawa"HararSomalilandEast HarargeWest HarargeHararCentral EasternHighlandsHosainaAwassaGoba"Rift SouthBaleArba Minch"Sidamo(incl. Yirgacheffe)S. Sudan"Nazret""KaffaDeseAmhara"WellegaDjiboutiBahir DarBenishangulGumuzAsosaAsayita"South EastNegeleSomaliaKenya0 50 100200Km300UgandaFigure 1. The main coffee growing areas of Ethiopia. See Table 1.Ethiopia is Africa’s largest coffeeproducer and the world’s fifth largestexporter of Arabica coffee.In 2015/16 total production was 6.4million 60 kg bags, of which 3.7 millionwere consumed within Ethiopia[4].9

Overview of Ethiopia’s coffeegrowing climateArabica coffee grows successfully – producinga marketable crop – within a narrow range ofenvironmental conditions. The interplay betweenrainfall, temperature and seasonality are the mainfactors governing coffee plant growth. Coffee willbecome increasingly stressed as the air temperatureincreases and soil moisture decreases (due to lackof rainfall), and vice versa. Yearly differences intemperature and rainfall are largely due to seasonality,i.e. annual weather patterns.The SeasonsThe climate of Ethiopia’s coffee lands is tropical, butdue to the large central highland area (mostly above1000 m) much of the country can be classified ascool-tropical. The seasons are largely defined byrainfall. There are three main seasons: Bega, Belg,and Kiremt (or Kremt).Bega (October to January/February) — the longdry season. This is when coffee harvesting andprocessing takes place. The severity of the main dryseason depends largely on location but also on otherphysical characteristics, including altitude, slope andaspect. There may be slight to moderate rainfall orbarely any at all.Small coffee plantation in forest10Belg (February to May) — the first rains before themain wet season, which may either represent theearly part of the wet season, or a distinct short wetseason followed by a short dry period before the mainrains. This is the main period for coffee flowering, fruitinitiation and early development.Kiremt/Kremt (June to September) — the main wetseason. Where the Belg period is distinct from themain wet season, the rainfall pattern is referred toas bimodal (east of the Rift Valley); where the yearlyrainfall is confined to Kiremt, the rainfall pattern isunimodal (west of the Rift Valley). This is the period forfinal coffee fruit development and ripening. Around theend of September there is a sharp decline in rainfall,Kiremt comes to an end, and the dry season begins.Throughout the coffee lands, temperatures aregenerally higher during the dry season and lowerin the wet season(s). Seasonal rainfall andtemperature profiles for six coffee growing locationsare shown in Figure 2.Rainfall (precipitation)Rainfall is the most important factor governing thedistribution of coffee farming and wild coffee forestsin Ethiopia[8] (Figures 1, 2). The distribution of rainfallvaries greatly across Ethiopia, according to season,altitude and physical features of the landscape.Clear annual patterns are evident, although rainfall isextremely variable.

Bahir Dar404003535030Rainfall (mm)300450Limu40400353503030010100500Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 015150101005500020200Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec15150101005500040450Temperature ( C)Maji4505Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0 1,600 mm1,200 -1,600 mm800 - 1,200 mm400 - 800 mm 400 mmBale404003535030Rainfall (mm)30045040035350303001010050Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 0Gelemso200151501010055000Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec15150101005500050Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0Figure 2. Rainfall map of Ethiopia (background), and rainfall and temperature profiles for six coffee growing locations.Bi-modal rainfall pattern (east of Rift Valley); uni-modal rainfall (west of Rift Valley). Graphs based on historical climatedata (30 year averages) and WorldClim[7]. Background yearly rainfall map of Ethiopia from WorldClim[7]. See Endnotes.11Temperature ( C)Yirgacheffe450

The highest rainfall is on the western side of theRift Valley, in the main South West coffee zone.The coffee areas of the South West typically receive1500–2100 mm of rain per year. In the southernpart of South West coffee zone there is generallyless annual rainfall (1300–1700 mm per year).The North coffee zone, including Amhara andBenishangul-Gumuz coffee areas, receives 1400–1800 mm per year, although the rains come laterin the year and end earlier, compared to the SouthWest. This results in a shorter, more intense wetseason and a longer dry season (Figure 2,and Endnotes).On the eastern side of the Rift Valley, the Hararcoffee zone usually receives far less total rainfallthan all other coffee areas (800–1200 mm peryear). The Sidamo coffee area in the south iswetter (1200–1600 mm per year), and the Balecoffee area somewhere in-between (1000–1400mm per year).aspect), weather (especially wind), and vegetation(e.g. forest cover) will also have an influence,depending on location and time of year.Humidity and other factorsIn the coffee areas of Ethiopia, humidity is mainlylinked to rainfall and temperature. In the dryseason (October to January/February) the monthlyaverage relative humidity (RH%) of a typical coffeegrowing area of the South West zone is usually 55–80 RH%, and the wet season (June to September)90 RH% or higher. There is a considerabledifference in humidity between day (low RH%) andnight (high RH%). The amount of sun (sunshinehours) is linked to seasonality, with greater cloudcover and less sunshine in the wet season(s), andless cloud and more sun in the dry season.Air temperatureThe ideal average minimum temperature forArabica coffee is 12–14 C, which in most casesoccurs between sunset and sunrise; it will survivetemperatures at or just below 0 C for shortperiods (hours). The ideal average temperature is18–22 C, with an ideal average maximum (daytime)temperature of 25–27 C. Maximum temperaturesof 30–32 C are not lethal if they exist for shortperiods (hours), and if there is sufficient wateravailable in the soil. Extreme temperatures forcoffee beyond 32 C up to 34 C, and perhaps evena high as 38 C, can be tolerated by Arabica plantsfor very short periods (a few hours), but only ifthere is adequate water in the soil. If the soil is notwet enough, then extreme maximum temperaturesfor plant survival will be lower; for example,temperatures around 30 C could be lethal withinless than 24 hours if the soil is too dry.Temperatures vary according to locality, altitude,season and physical features of the landscape.In the coffee areas on the western side of theRift Valley, the minimum temperature is typically11–14 C, the average 15–21 C, and maximum23–27 C. In the coffee areas on the eastern sideof the Rift Valley, the minimum is 9–13 C, theaverage 16–20 C, and maximum 24–26 C. Altitudehas a direct and almost uniform relationship onair temperature, with an approximate decreaseof 0.6 C for every 100 m increase in altitude.However, other physical factors (e.g. slope and12Arabica coffee plant

2Africa and Ethiopia’s climate haschange

are associated with geographical location (which is often referred to as ‘origin’, in a similar way as ‘terroir’ is used in the wine industry) and factors associated with harvesting and processing. Included among these origins are the well-known coffees of Sidamo, Yirgacheffe, Harar, Nekemte and Limu, but there are numerous lesser-known coffee regions that have equally distinct flavour .

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