THE AGEING POPULATION
THE AGEINGPOPULATIONNEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADULTAND COMMUNITY EDUCATION
Australia, like most countries in the Western world,has a rapidly ageing population. The ‘baby boomer’generation is now moving through retirement agewith a life expectancy much higher than that oftheir parents. This paper suggests that the Adultand Community Education sector in Australia hasalready provided an important means of ensuringthat adults can maintain skills, knowledge andwellbeing into their senior years. Also, that ACE’srole in ensuring that Australians remain productiveand well over their extended life times willbecome more important.2ADULT LEARNING AUSTRALIA
AGEING AS A SHARED GLOBAL EXPERIENCEAn ageing population is a both a shared globalexperience and global concern. There are two bigfactors driving the change: mortality and fertility.We are living longer and having fewer babies.Consequently our global community is experiencing, orwill soon experience, a number of world firsts. Therewill be more:§§ older adults than young children (National Instituteon Aging, National Institutes of Health, & WorldHealth Organization, 2011, p. 2)§§ children who know their parents, grandparents andgreat grandparents as living people (2011, p. 22)§§ retired people than people working (United Nations,2012, p. 4; European Commission, 2012, p. 4).It is anticipated that by 2050, the globe will supportaround 2 billion people aged 60 and over.Japan has the world’s oldest population. By 2050, 2 inevery 5 people in Japan will be over 60 years and ofthose aged over 60, more than 1 in 3 will be at least80 years old (National Institute on Aging, NationalInstitutes of Health, & World Health Organization,2011, p. 23). By 2050, the number of people aged over60 in China is predicted to reach 330 million (2011, p.5.); India will have 316 million; the United States 111million and Indonesia 72 million (United Nation, 2009,p. 11).While the world is ageing overall, ageing is morepronounced in some regions than others. By 2050, only1 in 10 residents (10%) of Africa will be 60 years andover, while in Europe more than 1 in 3 residents (34%)will be 60 years and over. Asia, Oceania, Latin America,the Caribbean and North America will all have around 1in 4 residents over the age of 60 (UNPFA, 2012, p. 21).Figure 1: Population aged 0–4, 0–14 and aged 60 or over, n aged 0–4(thousands)Population aged pulation aged 0–60(thousands)Source: UNDESA, Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2030 Revision (New York, 2011)THE AGEING POPULATION: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADULT AND COMMUNITY EDUCATION3
RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES ASSOCIATEDWITH AGEING POPULATIONSThe associated risks of these population projections area slowing rate of growth of the economy and a decline inliving standards, as the proportion of the total populationof traditional working age reduces. There will beescalating pressures on the public purse for spending onhealth services, retirement benefits and aged care servicesas the numbers beyond working age grow. Particulareffort will be required to maintain health, maximiseindependence, extend work lives and improve wellbeing.The United Nations Madrid International Plan onAgeing identified three priority areas: older persons anddevelopment; advancing health and wellbeing into oldage; and ensuring enabling and supportive environments(United Nations, 2002).Kirkwood, Bond and May (2010) identified two challengesto realising this opportunity. The first challenge relatesto ensuring that ‘ the greatest number of older peoplemaintain the best possible mental capital, and sopreserve their independence and wellbeing, both for theirown benefit, and also to minimise their need for support’(2010, p. 7). The second challenge relates to ensuring ‘ that the considerable resource which older people offer is recognised and valued by society, and that theyhave the opportunity to realise the maximum benefitfrom that, both for themselves and society’ (p. 8).The primary opportunity associated with an ageingpopulation is that older people bring with them awealth of skills and knowledge brought about throughexperience. In theory, a population skewed towardsmore skilled and knowledgeable workers and communitymembers should have enormous pay-offs in productivityand in its ability to manage ongoing societal challenges.4ADULT LEARNING AUSTRALIA
PERCEPTIONS OF AGEINGAcross the world, governments and policymakers vary in their rhetoric around anageing population. Emotive languageand panic about the demographicchange is common, and theterm ‘demographictime bomb’ isoften used. ForThe UK population is ageing rapidly, butexample a UKwe have concluded that the Government and ourgovernmentreport statessociety are woefully underprepared. Longer lives canthat:be a great benefit, but there has been a collectivefailure to address the implications and withouturgent action this great boon could turn intoa series of miserable crises.(House of Lords, 2013, p. 1, our emphasis)A more pragmatic, but still mostly negative, view of anageing population is found in this government report;‘German society will age significantly in the comingdecades – a phenomenon, which embodies a part of“demographic change”. However, we should not talkabout an excess of elderly people. Rather than having toomany of them, we are lacking youth’ (Lehr, 2007).In Australia, as in many other countries, there have beenrecent attempts to reconfigure older adults as a resourceto draw on, rather than as a problem to be solved.‘Australia is on the cusp of a wonderful opportunity. Bybuilding an age-friendly society and making the most ofpopulation ageing, we are creating a golden age, turninggrey into gold’ (Department of Treasury and Finance,2011).Whether we consider the number of older adults a ‘timebomb’ a challenging excess or a delightful surplus ofuntapped resources, at least one thing is very clear:the numbers of adults who need to keep learning intothe senior years is growing and will significantly impacton, and hold relevance for, the Adult and CommunityEducation (ACE) sector in Australia.THE AGEING POPULATION: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADULT AND COMMUNITY EDUCATION5
AGEING IN AUSTRALIAAustralia has a rapidly ageing population. Like therest of the developed world, this is largely due to theeffects of people living longer and women having fewerchildren. Overseas migration has an impact on the ageingprofile but is likely to only partially offset these effects(Australian Treasury, 2010, p. 1). Ageing is expected toaccelerate in the short and medium term attributed, inpart, to the through flow of baby boomers. The proportionof working age people is projected to fall, with only 2.7people of working age to support each Australian aged 65years and over by 2050, compared to five working agedpeople per aged person today (see Figure 2).Figure 2: Proportion of the Australianpopulation aged 65 25%20%15%Longer life expectancies and an ageing populationhave created a pressure to extend working lives. Thispressure comes from governments who feel an economicimperative to keep adults in the workforce longer,as well as from individuals who reach retirement agewith higher levels of health and skills than previousgenerations, and who would rather continue working insome form than spend decades in retirement.5%197019902010203085 and overSource: ABS Cat. No. 3105.0.001 (2008)and Treasury projections6Australia is in a relatively good economic and financialposition to manage its ageing population. Unlikeits OECD counterparts, Australia has avoided manyof the problems associated with the 2008–09 globalfinancial crisis (although some retirement incomes wereaffected). The unemployment rate is low relative to therest of OECD nations and there is some time to adjustand prepare. However, education providers and policymakers face specific challenges in relation to an ageingpopulation that they are only beginning to understandand address.OLDER AUSTRALIANS AND WORK10%0Noting that children born in 2012 have an average lifeexpectancy of 94 years (girls) and 92 years (boys), theProductivity Commission predicts that by 2060 therewill be 25 centenarians for every 100 babies, wherecurrently there is one centenarian for every 100 babies.‘Australian governments will face additional pressureson their budgets equivalent to around 6 per cent ofnational GDP by 2060, principally reflecting the growthof expenditure on health, aged care and the AgePension (Productivity Commission, 2013, p. 2).205065-85In Australia the retirement age is currently 65 years,and due to rise to 67 years by 2023. A recent report bythe Productivity Commission has suggested increasingthe retirement age to 70 in order to improve workforceparticipation and save money on pensions (see Figure3, Productivity Commission, 2013, p. 15).ADULT LEARNING AUSTRALIA
Figure 3: Projected labour force participation rates701979-80 to 2012-132013-14 to 2059-9068Rates with no ageing666462Projectedparticipation rates6019791979197919791979Source: Productivity Commission, 2013, p. 7.Debates about an ideal retirement age can hide thereality about actual employment participation andageing. There is a significant decline in labour forceparticipation from 55 years of age, and by age 70 yearsfew people remain in paid employment.of Australia’s 55–64 year olds were employed. This placedAustralia 13th, close to the average across the OECD, butbehind countries like New Zealand (72%), Japan (66%)and the USA (62%) (Australian Bureau of Statistics,2010).Australia’s workforce participation rate amongst olderAustralians is increasing, with most of the increaseoccurring in the last decade. However, it is still lowcompared to many other nations. In 2008, 57 per centMuch of the growth in employment of mature-age personswas in part-time employment. Participation of olderwomen in the workforce has also grown significantlyrelative to men.THE AGEING POPULATION: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADULT AND COMMUNITY EDUCATION7
Figure 4: Labour force participation by age and gender. Aged 55 years and over.50%45%Older male labour force 95200020052010199520002005201050%45%Older female labour force ployed full timeEmployed part timeUnemployed(Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2010)There is a range of factors that influence the decision to remain in or leave the workforce, including preferences forleisure; actual and expected levels of labour income; pension benefits; pension tax contributions; health conditions;bargaining within households and the conditions facing other members of the household, including their financialposition and health (Ryan & Sinning, 2010).8ADULT LEARNING AUSTRALIA
A recent ABS survey on retirement and retirementintentions identified over 600,000 Australians whonever intend to retire from the labour force. Thishas been accompanied by growth in the proportionof people working part time and not seeking morehours, suggesting that many older Australians aretransitioning to part-time work rather than to fulltime retirement. Another significant group of over45s (191,000) had ‘un-retired’; that is, they hadpreviously retired, then returned to the workforce.Most people in this group were women (114,000).Their main reasons for returning to the labourforce were ‘financial need’ (42%) or ‘bored/neededsomething to do’ (30%) (ABS, 2013).For many Australians retirement is not simply amatter of choice. Retirement is not always voluntaryand doesn’t always occur at the anticipated age. AsSpoehr and colleagues observe in their review ofmature-age employment, ‘many older workers whobecome unemployed do not intentionally retire butfind that this happens by default when they fail tofind employment’ (Spoehr, Barnett & Parnis, 2009, p.5). Indeed, Encel has suggested that the term ‘earlyexit’ is a more apt description than ‘early retirement’(Encel, 2003, p. 7).The picture of involuntary non-participation asdescribed by Gong and McNamara is that one infive non-participators aged 45–64 (20.5%) areinvoluntarily not working. Furthermore, the highestinvoluntary non-participation rate of nearly a third(32%) occurs in the 45–54 age group. The involuntarynot working figures decrease as people move towardsage 65 and become eligible for the age pension;nevertheless, even at later ages a considerableproportion of people are involuntarily not working(Gong & McNamara, 2010, p. 14).The potential for workforce participation into thesenior years also varies across industries. Someindustries are more suitable to an ageing workforcethan others. Labour force participation is highestamongst managers and professionals for men andclerical and administrative workers for women (ABS,2010). For many Australians, a career shift andretraining will be required in order for them to remainin the workplace until the current retirement age,and for many beyond this age. The ACTU’s response tothe call by the Productivity Commission to increaseretirement age reflects this: ‘How can constructionworkers be expected to haul concrete or a childcareworker run after a room full of kids until they are 70?’(Australian Council of Trade Unions, 2013).The industries that are most suitable for older workers(e.g. clerical, administrative, managers and professionals)are also fields that require higher levels of literacy,numeracy and computer skills. For many Australians,retraining for a career shift will require attention tothese generic skills as well as to new industry specificor technical skills. Given the lower levels of literacy andnumeracy amongst older Australians, the task will besignificant for many. There is a strong case for investingearlier in working people with low literacy and numeracyrather than waiting for them to be unemployed in theirfifties and sixties and then attempting to quickly addressa large skills gap.Health and wellbeing are significant factors in an adult’sability to remain working. It is estimated that illness,injury and disability are preventing one fifth of the totalpopulation of 45–75 year olds from working or looking forwork (National Seniors Productive Ageing Centre, 2013).Ill health can also be exacerbated by early exit from theworkplace. The Australian Human Rights Commission hasmade the observation that:Currently,older Australiansare underrepresented in paid work.Underemployment is often symptomaticof other forms of exclusion includingparticipation in the community. Socialexclusion and isolation, in turn, havesignificant impacts on physical andemotional wellbeing.THE AGEING POPULATION: NEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADULT AND COMMUNITY EDUCATION(Australian Human Rights Commission,2013 p. 18)9
MYTHMYTHS AND REALITIESRELATING TO OLDER PEOPLEWORKING AND LEARNING:AUSTRALIAN RESEARCHThe information below provides some keythemes from Australian research on mythsand realities about the mature aged workingand learning. The research summarisedsuggests that the mature aged are themost worthwhile workers from an employerperspective and that, far from yearning forretirement, older people both in work andout of employment often want to go onlearning and learning, but at their own pace.Older workers are moreexpensive.REALITIESAccording to a recent study by BusinessWork and Ageing there is a net humanresource management cost benefit of 1,956 per annum for each worker aged45 years plus compared with the restof the workforce.MYTHWorkers cognitiveabilities deteriorate with age.REALITIESQueensland government research showsthere is no sign of any significantdecline in a person’s memory or theirintelligence until they are well intotheir eighties or nineties.MYTHMYTHOlder workers are notinterested in career orself-development.Older workers are lessflexible and adaptable.REALITIESREALITIESResearch by Drake Management foundthat 86% of senior workers were keen totake up training opportunitiesoffered to them.MYTHOlder worker are notlikely to stay with the firm.REALITIESEmployees 45–plus stay with anorganisation 2.4 times longer onaverage than the under 45s.Drake Management has found peopleover 45 years are generally more flexibleabout their work hours and workingconditions than younger people.Employers retrench older workers inpreference to youngerworkers.MYTHOlder workers justwant to retire.REALITIESOne of the most recent and comprehensive surveys of olderpeople by the Diversity Council Australia (DCA) has foundthat far from yearning for retirement, older people bothin work and out of employment want to go on workingand learning, but at their own pace. The DCA asked morethat 1,000 men and women over the age of 45 about theiropinions on work and beyond, 58% of whom were currentlyemployed and 42% out of work. Four out of 10 of those notworking were over the age of 70. More than a third of thepeople not currently employed would consider returningto work and 14% of the people currentlyemployed had previously beenretired.Source: The Weekend Australian, 2007, p. 6.10ADULT LEARNING AUSTRALIA
VALUE OF LATER LIFE LEARNINGEducation and training is an established vehicle forupward social mobility and for social inclusion acrossthe age ranges. For senior Australians, learning has theadditional potential to extend working life, to assist incareer transitions into more senior friendly job roles andto maintain health and wellbeing.LEARNING AND WORKEmployment is very strongly related to qualifications atall ages. Both men and women are more likely to remainemployed beyond age 55 if they have a post schoolqualification and are much more likely to remain inemployment if they have a university qualification.Figure 5: Proportion of persons employed, by highestnon-school qualification – 2009While a number of government reports have identifiedthe need for vocational education and training to beavailable for older workers and learners, opportunitiesfor work-related learning and formal education reducesignificantly beyond age 55, potentially leaving olderworkers vulnerable to early exit from the workplace. Arecent ABS survey found that the percentage of adultstaking part in non-formal workplace training dropsfrom 29% for those under 55 to 23% for the 55–64age group. The figures for formal study are moredramatic with 37% of the 15–54 age group engagedin formal study (either full time or part time) butonly 5% of the 55–64 age group (Australian Bureau ofStatistics, 2013).100%80%60%Where older workers are offered training, it is likelyto be skewed towards higher skilled workers. Lowerskilled workers are also likely to have a lower returnon investment for the development of new skills(McIntyre, 2005). It becomes increasingly importantthat governments not only intervene to change theattitude to, and opportunities for older workers tolearn, but that they target this intervention towardsolder workers with low skills who are vulnerable in thelabour market.40%20%0Karmel and Woods (2004) have examined theinfluence of education and training on theparticipation of older people in the labour market,and the pay-off of undertaking education andtraining as an older-person compared to earlier inlife. On the whole, the results indicate that the morequalifications the better, and that education, lifelonglearning and training are beneficial to maintainingand increasing employment rates. Qualificationsacquired later in life have as good, and in some cases,better, pay-off in terms of employment-to-populationrates for older age groups, suggesting that educationis an effective strategy for older people seekingemployment. The authors suggest that increasingeducation levels will partially offset the impact ofageing on labour force participation.25-54 years55-74 yearsBachelor degree or higherCertificate to advance diplomaNo non-school qualificationSource: Australian B
The United Nations Madrid International Plan on Ageing identified three priority areas: older persons and development; advancing health and wellbeing into old age; and ensuring enabling and supportive environments (United Nations, 2002). The primary opportunity associated with an ageing population is that older people bring with them a
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global situation regarding the ageing population demographic. The world’s population is ageing rapidly and with profound results. The global share of older people (defined as aged 60 or over for the purpose of this report) increased from 9.2% in 1990 to 11.7% in 2013 1. 1 United Nations, World Population Ageing 2013, 2013
the United Nations to convene two World Assemblies in 1980 and 2002, respectively. The World Population Ageing Report (United Nations, 2002, p. xxviii) summarized that: 1. Population ageing is unprecedented, without parallel in the history of humanity; 2. Population ageing is pervasive, a global phenomenon affecting every man, woman and child; 3.
