MAS2317/3317: Introduction To Bayesian Statistics

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(Professor Boys)2012: 9– Systems Biology: (Boys, Farrow, Gillespie, Golightly,Henderson and Wilkinson)– Environmental Extremes: (Fawcett, Walshaw)Dr. Lee FawcettMAS2317/3317: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

Newcastle’s contribution: Environmental ExtremesUse Statistical methods to help plan for environmentalextremes:Hurricane–induced waves: how high should we build asea–wall to protect New Orleans against anotherHurricane Katrina?Extreme wind speeds: how strong should we designbuildings so they will not fail in storm–strength windspeeds?Extreme cold spells: How much fuel should we stockpileto cater for an extremely cold winter?Dr. Lee FawcettMAS2317/3317: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

Newcastle’s contribution: Environmental ExtremesWe work within the Bayesian framework to combineexpert information from hydrologists/oceanographers, withextreme rainfall data/hurricane–induced sea surge data,to help estimate how likely an extreme flooding event is tooccur, or to aid the design of sea wall defences instorm–prone regions.If you’re interested, you can see my web–page for more details.Dr. Lee FawcettMAS2317/3317: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

Quick quizSuppose A, θ and µM are constants and Z is a randomvariable, such that A 5, θ 10, µM 33.5 and Z N(0, 1).Write down1Pr(Z 0)2Pr( 1.96 Z 1.96)3Pr(2 A 4)4Pr(7 θ 12)5Pr(25.28 µM 31.05)Dr. Lee FawcettMAS2317/3317: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

outrightly rejected the idea of Bayesian statistics By the start of WW2, Bayes’ rule was virtually taboo in the world of Statistics! During WW2, some of the world’s leading mathematicians resurrected Bayes’ rule in deepest secrecy to crack the coded messages of the Germans Dr. Lee Fawcett MAS2317/3317: Introduction to Bayesian Statistics

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