The Indian Sugar Industry

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Flow of presentation2 General overview of Indian sugarcane & sugar sector Immediate/ short term problems and suggestions The problem of high cane prices Balancing sugar production through ethanol Long term and structural policy needs

Indian Sugar Industry – An OverviewWorld’s largestconsumer of sugarat 26 milliontonnes p.a.World’s largestsugar producer at31 million tonnesp.a.Around 530 sugarmills underoperationAround 5 millionhectares of landunder sugarcaneAbout Rs.85,000crore cane pricepayment annuallyAnnual turnover Rs. 1 lakh croreAround half a milionworkers directlyemployed in sugarmillsPer capitaconsumption is lowat around 20 kiloAbout 25-30million sugarcanefarmers

Consumption Pattern of Sugar in India4 Two sources of sugar demand – Bulk Buyers & Direct HouseholdDirect Household35%Bulk Consumers65%

Revenue realisation from sugar & by-productsTotal estimated revenue realisation in 2018-19 SS is about Rs. 1 lac crore.Sugar constitutes 81% Ethanol and other by products constitute 19%.1%6%13%81%SugarEthanol & RSPowerOthers

Indian production and consumption6lac 63.0127.0110. 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(E)ProductionInternal Consumption

Sugar trade from & to India764.96mn. .661.100.16 4-5-4.08ImportsExports-0.5-0.18

8Immediate and short term problems ofsugar sector

Indian production, consumption and opening balance9lac 43.644349.858.5466.0174.74107.277.5238.82004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(E)ProductionInternal ConsumptionOpening balance

Current year 2018-19 sugar balance sheet10Opening balance(as on 1st Oct, 2018)107.2 lakh tonsEstimated sugar production307.0 lakh tonsSugar availability during the season414.2 lakh tonsEstimated sugar consumption260.0 lakh tonsEstimated exportsClosing balance(as on 30th Sept, 2019)30.0 lakh tons124.2 lakh tons2

Closing Balance at end of the sugar season11170.00lac 011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-17 (P) 2017-18 (E) 2018-19 (E)

All India average ex-mill sugar price & retail prices1250Rs. 7.137.43537.3 36.9736.636.435.634.6433.1543.48 5538.5836.8836.8936.2534.5 34.75 34.56 34.083438.83131.73031.2 r.18Mar. eb'16Jan'16Dec'15Nov'15Oct'1520

Cane arrears will reach historic levels in Mar 017000150001300011000900070005000?Rs. in crore186482009919780 52015-162016-172017-182018-19 (Ason 31st Dec.) In April 2018 cane price arrears reached Rs. 22,000 crore Will reach alarming levels by April, 20192018-19 (Ason 31st Mar)

14Problems mainly because of very highcane price & the mismatch with sugar price

FRP for sugarcane has increased very fast15FRP300Rs. per 002009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-15FRPFRP has doubled in last 9 years2015-162016-17 2017-182018-19

But ex-mill sugar prices have hardly moved up 5-16Avg. ex-mill price2016-172017-18 2018-19(tillJan.)

Revenue from sugarcane substantially higher thancompeting garcane (Rs./ton)2013-142014-15Paddy (Rs./qtl.)2015-162016-17Wheat (Rs./qtl)2017-182018-19

Sugarcane the most attractive crop181.Sturdy crop: Can withstand weather fluctuations better thanothers2.Better remuneration: Farmers get 50-60% higher returns fromsugarcane as compared to any competing crop3.Assured buyer: Each farmer is attached to a sugar mill. The millcan’t close till it crushes all sugarcane grown in its area.4.Assured price: Farmer gets full cane price fixed by Central orState Govt. even if late, which is not the case for other crops5.No middlemen: Cane bought directly and payment made directlyinto bank accounts of farmers

Amongst large producers, India pays the highest cane price19USD/ton of cane in 2017-18 25201510ThailandNote: Prices include cost of harvesting & transportationSource: Australia –Thailand –Brazil India–Queensland Sugar Ltd.Office of Cane and Sugar BoardCONSECANAAverage FRP at all India average recovery of 10.77%India

Indian cost of sugar production is very high20USD/tonCoP India v/s 53102802502016-172017-18IndiaBrazil

Indian sugar has become uncompetitive21CoP in India v/s Global prices op(India)2015-162016-172017-18Global price (White sugar)2018-19

22Hence, it has become almost impossibleto export surplus sugar without

23Solutions: Immediate and short term

24.Steps taken by Govt. in last one year Increase in import duty from 50% to 100% Removal of the 20% export duty Stock holding limit on sugar mills in Feb and Mar 2018 Announcement of DFIA scheme and export quotas without subsidy Production subsidy on cane as part of FRP in 2017-18 Max. monthly sugar sale quota for each mill fixed by Govt. since June ‘18 Min. ex-mill sugar sale price fixed by Govt. at Rs.29/- kg since June ‘18 Buffer stock subsidy for 30 lakh tons Production subsidy, transport subsidy and 50 lakh tons export quotas

Yet record cane price arrears & sugar inventories25 The policies and incentives given by Govt. is not enough Clearly means that something more needed to solve problem of A) Fast accumulating cane price arrears to alarming levels (reported tohave already crossed Rs.19,000 crore by end Dec 2018) B) High sugar inventory expected at end of this season at unprecedentedrecord high levels of over 124 lakh tons Any policy should attempt to solve both the aboveproblems simultaneously

Sugar Production and ex-mill prices26325320lac 20512012471000Sugar Production Ex-mill sugar prices (Rs./qtl)Sugar prices are inversely related to sugar production and stocks

1. To address the problem of cane price arrears27 Cash flows of sugar mills needs improvement Can be done by either/and: Giving soft loans at zero interest rates Increasing revenue realisation of sugar mills from sugarSoft loans will not solve current problem Even if announced now, loan will get disbursed in at least 3-4 months Max. arrears with sugar mills having distressed balance sheets, who won’t get loanOnly way is to increase minimum sugar price to Rs.35-36/- kilo To cover the cost of production, including interest, maintenance costs etc. Sugar valuation will increase by Rs.6-7 per kilo, giving addl. Rs.20,000crore to sugar mills from the current stocks and further production

To reduce sugar stocks28 Impactful diversion of surplus sugar into ethanol will becomesuccessful in next 2-3 years More ethanol production capacities required for that successCurrently, only way is by exports Export quotas and incentives not proving enough to incentivise or forcemills to export their quota There is thus need to find ways to ensure mills fulfil theirexport quotas Which can happen if there is some penalty for non-performing mills

29Ethanol policies: an attempt to balancesugar production

Surplus sugar to ethanol30 OMCs currently targeting 10% ethanol blending with petrol In 2017-18 (Dec-Nov), around 4.5% blending achievedFor 2018-19, 10% blending requires 330 crore litres Contracts entered into for 260 crore litres (almost 8% blend levels) Includes 50 crore litres from cane juice/ B-molasses (first time ever)India currently has over 70 lakh tons of surplus sugar Instead of making more sugar, enormous scope to divert surplus cane

What are/were the constraints in moving forward?31 Ethanol production capacity Inter-State movement State Governments reluctant to give up controlStorage capacities Around 300 crore litres, incl. 30 crore litres from grain basedBoth at the distilleries as also at Oil depotsReluctance on the part of automobile manufacturers Challenge, if any, on old vehicles

Recent steps by Govt. of India32 New Bio-fuel Policy in 2018 Allows sugar mills/distilleries to make ethanol from cane juice, Bmolasses, foodgrains, potato etc. Procurement price of ethanol being fixed by Govt. since 2014 Price increased significantly for 2018-19 Premium prices for ethanol made from cane juice/B-molasses/grainsRelevant Act amended to make ethanol movement smoother States being convinced/ pursued to withdraw the controls Standards fixed for 20% ethanol blended gasoline in India Subsidised loans by Govt. for new/ expansion of capacities

Need to implement 20% blending levels33 Govt. has already fixed ethanol blend standards at 20% With ethanol production capacities being set up at a greatpace, we expect creation of another 200 crore litres in 2 years This would mean possibility of 450-500 crore litres of ethanolproduction by 2020-21 Equivalent to over 15% blend levels Which will only continue to increaseHence, immediate need to get all stakeholders to move to 20%blend levels, starting with UP and Maharashtra in 2019-20

34Long term policy directions

35.34.0India a structural surplus sugar producer & exporterMillion 22.820.320.818.512.710.0Sugar Production25.424.814.514.024.6Internal Consumption26.0

Rationalisation of cane pricing policy36 International laws/practice across sugar producing nations: Cane price automatically gets determined as per formula as apercentage of revenue from sugar and/or by-products It varies in the range of 60-66% Brazil, Thailand, Australia, EU, Mauritius, Kenya, Tanzania etc.If India has to export sugar, it needs to be competitive andadopt similar systems/ practice Expert Committee had recommended a formula Adopted in Maharashtra and Karnataka, though not properlyimplemented

The linkage formula .37 Revenue sharing formula (RSF) for India Based on historical data in India and international practices: Cane price at 70% of revenue from sugar and primary by-products or at75% of revenue from sugar alone (giving 5% weightage to by-products) CACP, for last 4 years, also recommended for RSF, as follows FRP will be the minimum price the farmers will get Cane price payable by mills will be as per RSF If it is below FRP, gap to be filled up through a Fund created by Govt.But Govt. has only been accepting the FRP, but ignoringthe second part of the recommendation on RSF and Fund

CACP’s recommendations for the Fund38 Contribution into the Fund: To set MSP of sugar for consumers at certain level.When it falls below MSP, certain amount of cess can becollected from consumers. During high sugar prices, part of surplus generated underRSF can be retained and deposited in PSF. A committee should be constituted for creating andmanaging PSF.

39.Concluding . Implement RSF with FRP and a Fund Create a Cane Farmers Welfare Fund (CFWF) To fund the gap between what industry can pay and FRP fixed by Govt. By restricting cane price liability of millers to their paying capacity,Indian sugar will become competitive world wide Payment of cane price in two instalments Stop State Govts. from fixing SAP for sugarcane, above FRP Make them liable to pay the difference between SAP and FRPContinue to encourage diversion of surplus sugar to ethanol Fixed pricing policy should be linked to FRP

Thank you

Indian Sugar Industry –An Overview World’slargest sugar producer at 31 million tonnes p.a. World’s largest consumer of sugar at 26 million tonnes p.a. Annual turnover Rs. 1 lakh crore About 25-30 million sugarcane farmers Around half a milion workers directly employed in sugar mills Around 530 sugar mills under operation Per capita

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Indian Sugar Industry - An Overview World's 2nd largest sugar producer at 25-28 million tonnes p.a. World's largest consumer of sugar at 25-26 million tonnes p.a. Annual output Rs. 80,000 crore About 50 million Sugarcane farmers Around 5 lakh workers directly employed in sugar mills Around 530 sugar mills under operation Per capita