Demographics In The San Diego Region - SANDAG

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Demographics in the San Diego RegionJanuary 2016

SANDAG serves as the region’s clearinghouse forinformation and data. Infos publish timely, relevantinformation informing the public while providingcontext on complex issues facing the region.For more information, call (619) 699 -1950 oremail: pio@sandag.org

Demographics in the San Diego RegionIntroductionHome to more than 3.2 million people today, San Diego County is the second most populous county in California behindLos Angeles. Between 2010 and 2015 the region’s population grew by more than 130,000 people — an increase of 4.3percent. Like many other counties in the state, however, the San Diego region’s overall growth rate has slowed significantlyfrom previous decades (Figure 1). As a whole, the state of California continues to see most of its growth attributed to naturalincrease (births minus deaths) as opposed to migration.Today the San Diego region grows at a slightly higher rate than the state — a trend that has persisted, more or less, overthe last decade (Table 1). More than 90 percent of the region’s growth during the past five years can be attributed to naturalincrease, with the remaining 9.5 percent coming from net migration (number of people moving into the region minus thosemoving out) (Table 2). Net migration is made up of two components — foreign migration (to and from outside the country) anddomestic migration (to and from other places in the United States). The large military presence in the region has an impact ondomestic migration, which fluctuates from year to year. In any given year, thousands of active duty military personnel and theirfamilies flow in and out of the county due to changes in staffing levels on military bases or the deployment/return of militaryunits. Domestic migration in the region between 2010 and 2015 saw an average net loss of 1,000 people per year. Foreignimmigration, by contrast, averaged nearly 10,000 immigrants per year during the same time period.Figure 1Average Annual Growth Rateby Decade, San Diego RegionTable 1Annual Population Change 2010  –  2015, San Diego Region and CaliforniaSan Diego il 1, 2010*3,095,313——37,253,956—1.5%January 1, 20113,115,81020,4970.737,427,9460.5January 1, 20123,128,38712,5770.437,680,5930.7January 1, 20133,164,81836,4311.238,030,6090.9January 1, 20143,192,45727,6390.938,357,1210.9January 1, 0s 1980s 1990s 2000s 20102015Sources:U.S. Census Bureau. California Department of Finance.Compiled by SANDAG, January 2015Sources: *U.S. Census Bureau **SANDAG population estimates ***California Department of FinanceTable 2Components of Change 2010 – 2015, San Diego RegionTotal Population2010 – 2015 ChangeNatural Increase(Births Minus Deaths)Net MigrationApril 1, 2010*January 1, 2015**NumericPercentNumeric***Percent of ChangeNumericPercent of 99.5Sources: *U.S. Census Bureau 2010 decennial census **SANDAG population estimates ***California Department of Public HealthJanuary 2016 3

PopulationToday, the majority of the region’spopulation lives in its 18 incorporatedcities. The City of San Diego is thelargest jurisdiction in the county withnearly 1.37 million residents — morethan 42 percent of the region’s totalpopulation (Table 3). Between 2010and 2015, the City of San Diegogrew by more than 66,000 people, orapproximately 5 percent. While thecity had the largest numeric changein population, it was not the fastestgrowing. San Marcos showed thelargest percent increase, growing morethan 8 percent during the past fiveyears with an average annual growthrate of almost 1.4 percent between2010 and 2015 (Figure 2). The secondlargest city in the region is Chula Vista,which is home to 257,989 residentsand had the third largest numericincrease in population between 2010and 2015. Just over 15 percent ofthe region’s population lives in theunincorporated communities, and thatgroup grew by almost 1 percent eachyear between 2010 and 2015.Major Statistical Areas (MSAs) aregroups of census tracts that divide theregion into seven subareas (Map 1).MSAs were defined over 40 yearsago and as such may be more easilycompared over time than areas withboundaries that may change such ascity jurisdictions.Table 4 shows that the North City MSAis the largest of the seven MSAs in theregion, with a population in 2015 of778,099. The North City MSA also sawthe largest numeric and percentagechange over the 2010 to 2015 timeperiod, growing by more than 44,000residents for a total increase of 6percent. The populations of all otherMSAs in the San Diego region grewbetween 2010 and 2015, ranging4 Demographics in the San Diego RegionTable 3Total Population by Jurisdiction, 2010 – 2015Total PopulationApril 1, 2010*Jan 1, 2015**NumericDel Mar2010 – 2015 a 1,200-4.9Lemon Grove25,32026,1990.88793.5Imperial 02.6Santee53,41355,8051.72,3924.5La Mesa57,06558,8131.81,7483.1National 92,0003.4San ,6942.9El nside167,344171,6825.34,3382.6Chula 64504,33015.617,7663.7San 33,227,496100.0132,1834.3Sources: *U.S. Census Bureau 2010 decennial census **SANDAG population estimatesFigure 2Average Annual Growth Rate by Jurisdiction, 2010 – 2015San MarcosChula VistaCarlsbadSan DiegoSanteeRegionUnincorporatedLemon GroveEncinitasLa MesaVistaOceansidePowayEscondidoNational CityEl CajonDel MarSolana BeachImperial BeachCoronado-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. California Department of Finance. Compiled by SANDAG, January 20151.0%1.5%

Figure 3 shows the average annualgrowth rate among the MSAs andthe San Diego region. Similar to thepercent change shown in Table 4,Figure 3 shows that North City hadthe highest average annual growthrate over the 2010 to 2015 period,with almost 1 percent per year. Thepopulation of the Central MSA grewby about 20,000 persons over thetime period, which is concentratedmostly in Downtown San Diego. Thisis mostly due to redevelopment of theurban areas of San Diego, includingthousands of new multi-family units.Orange CountyRiverside arEASTCOUNTYPowayCounty of San DiegoNORTHCITYSanteeMap 1San Diego RegionMajor STSUBURBANEl CajonLaMesaLemon GroveCENTRALNationalCoronado City12ImperialBeach16Imperial Countyfrom an increase of 3.3 percent inthe Central MSA to an increase of 4.7percent in the South Suburban MSA.This moderate growth in all MSAs isreflective of the moderate growth in theregion in the past five years, which hasslowed considerably when comparedto other decades. The communityplanning areas that changed the mostover the past five years are University(more generally known as UTC), MiraMesa, and Southeastern San Diego,all of which grew by more than 4,000persons between 2010 and 2015.ChulaVistaSOUTHSUBURBANTESUNITED STAMEXICOSan DiegoTable 4Total Population by Major Statistical Area (MSA), 2010 – 2015Total PopulationMSA2010 – 2015 ChangeApril 1, 2010Jan 1, rth City733,866778,09944,2336.0South Suburban385,339403,35018,0114.7East Suburban482,376499,80717,4313.6North County West405,713421,14715,4343.8North County 95,3133,227,496132,1834.3East CountyRegionSources: U.S. Census Bureau SANDAG estimatesFigure 3Average Annual Growth Rate by MSA, 2010 – 2015North CitySouth SuburbanRegionEast CountyNorth County WestEast SuburbanNorth County EastCentral0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and SANDAGJanuary 2016 5

HousingBetween 2010 and 2015 housing in theSan Diego region increased by morethan 25,000 units — approximately2.2 percent — bringing the region’stotal to 1.18 million housing units(Table 5). This relatively slow growthin housing is in sharp contrast to the5 percent growth seen during thehousing boom from 2002 to 2006and can be attributed to the sloweconomic recovery following the GreatRecession.By and large, the cities with the highestgrowth in population also saw thelargest percent gain in housing. Outof 19 jurisdictions, only four — SanMarcos, Chula Vista, National City,and Carlsbad — experienced a higherpercent gain in housing than theregional average. Conversely, fourteenjurisdictions grew by 2 percent or less.The estimates included in this reportshow small housing stock decreasesin just two jurisdictions, Solana Beachand La Mesa, and are the result ofredevelopment and slight reduction inmobile home units.As Table 6 illustrates, the averageannual rate of growth in housing byMSA varies throughout the region.Between 2010 and 2015, SouthSuburban grew the fastest at a ratenearly one and a half times theregionwide rate, while East Suburbanadded housing units at a slower pacethan any other MSA.The average household size (personsper household) in the region today is2.78, up from 2.75 in 2010. Averagehousehold size decreased during the2010 – 2015 time period in just fourjurisdictions, while it increased or remained the same in the other 15. The largesthousehold size in the region today is in National City at 3.4, and the smallest is 2.03in Del Mar (Figure 4).The region’s vacancy rate in 2015 stood at 4.8 percent, down significantly from 6.1percent in 2010. Vacancy rates throughout the region have steadily declined as thehousing market continues to improve following the Great Recession. The jurisdictions with the highest vacancy rates include Coronado (20.7 percent), Del Mar(20.1 percent) and Solana Beach (12.6 percent). These coastal communities typically experience higher vacancy rates that can be attributed to a higher concentration of vacation rentals and second homes. The lowest vacancy rates are found inthe cities of Poway (1.8 percent) and Lemon Grove (1.9 percent).In terms of housing mix, single family homes make up the majority of the region’shousing stock at 60.1 percent. Multi-family units account for 36.3 percent whileTable 5Total Housing Units by Jurisdiction, 2010 – 2015Total Housing UnitsJurisdictionApril 1, 2010Jan 1, la Del Mar2,6062,61150.2%El 5425,931-23-0.1%Lemon Grove8,8408,861210.2%National an ,2332,7301.6%1,158,0761,183,21125,1352.2%Imperial BeachLa MesaSan DiegoSolana BeachVistaUnincorporatedRegionSources: U.S. Census Bureau and SANDAG estimates6 Demographics in the San Diego Region2010 – 2015 Change

the remaining 3.6 percent are mobilehomes. The mix of housing stock inthe region has remained relativelyunchanged for the last two decades.The breakdown of housing stockby jurisdiction, however, variessignificantly throughout the region.Encinitas has the highest concentrationof single family homes at 81 percent,while El Cajon has the lowest at42 percent. The share of mobilehomes in the region has remainedvirtually unchanged since 2010. SanMarcos and Santee have the highestpercentage of mobile homes, at 12percent and 11 percent, respectively(Figure 5).Table 6Total Housing Units by Major Statistical Area, 2010 – 2015Total Housing UnitsJurisdiction2010 – 2015 ChangeApril 1, 2010Jan 1, th City298,839307,5898,7502.9South Suburban119,641123,6684,0273.4East Suburban178,925180,6381,7131.0North County West157,405160,5663,1612.0North County 0761,183,21125,1352.2East CountyRegionSources: U.S. Census Bureau and SANDAG estimatesFigure 4Average Household Size by Jurisdiction, 2015The future of housing development inthe region is likely to diverge from pasttrends. As greenfield developmentpotential dwindles throughout theregion, there will be less opportunity tobuild new single family homes. Housingunit counts and building permit datafrom around the region show the shareof new homes in the form of multi-familyunits continues to grow each year.In fact, the share of new multi-familyhomes surpassed the production ofsingle family homes in 2012.National CityChula VistaEscondidoSan MarcosPowayVistaLemon GroveUnincorporatedEl CajonImperial BeachOceansideSanteeRegionSan DiegoCarlsbadEncinitasLa MesaSolana BeachCoronadoDel Mar0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.50Source: SANDAG estimatesFigure 5Housing Stock by Jurisdiction, 2015100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%Source: SANDAG estimatesSingle eoraorpincUnmonGrovtedeywaLePoEncinitas0%Mobile HomeJanuary 2016 7

Population by EthnicityThe 2010 Census revealed that SanDiego County has become a “majority-minority” county — meaning nosingle race or ethnic group comprisesmore than 50 percent of the total population. Between 2010 and 2015 theoverall racial and ethnic composition ofthe region remained diverse. The Hispanic population1 increased by morethan 88,000 people and the non-Hispanic Asian and Pacific Islanderpopulation increased by almost 30,000people (Table 7). Both of these groupsrepresent about a 9 percent increaseover the 2010 population (8.8 percentfor Hispanics and 9.2 percent fornon-Hispanic Asians) (Figure 6). Whilethe non-Hispanic black population inthe region has shown slight increasesin recent decades, between 2010 and2015 the region’s non-Hispanic blackpopulation declined by about six percent. Non-Hispanic whites increasedby 1.1 percent, or about 16,000 persons, over the five-year period. Figure7 shows a comparison of the region’sracial and ethnic composition in 2010and 2015. Hispanics, non-HispanicAsians and Pacific Islanders, and thosewho identify as “non-Hispanic other 2”all represent a slightly larger percent ofthe population in 2015 than they did in2010, each rising by about 1 percent.In 2015, eight jurisdictions had a higherpercentage Hispanic population thandid the San Diego region (Chula Vista,Table 7Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 – 2015Population2010 – 2015 ChangeApril 1, 2010*Jan 1, 2015**NumericPercent 600138,206-8,394-5.7Asian and 121,4995,7435.0Total PopulationHispanicNon-HispanicSources: *U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 decennial census **SANDAG population estimatesFigure 6Population Change by Race/EthnicityNon-Hispanic Asianand Pacific IslandertHispanic, Any RaceNon-Hispanic OtherTotal PopulationNon-Hispanic WhiteNon-Hispanic Black-10%-5%0%5%10%Sources: SANDAG EstimatesFigure 7Population Composition by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 – 201550%40%30%Hispanic includes all persons who identify themselves as Hispanic or of Spanish origin. Hispanicsmay be of any race. Non-Hispanic persons aredivided into the remaining racial categories of white,black, Asian, and all other groups combined.1The non-Hispanic “all other groups” category is acombination of the standard Census Bureau categories of American Indian and Alaskan Native and twoor more races. Due to the relatively small populationtotals in these categories we have combined them foranalysis purposes.28 Demographics in the San Diego Region20%10%0%Hispanic,Any RaceNon-HispanicWhiteNon-HispanicBlackPercent of the Total Population 2010Sources: SANDAG EstimatesNon-Hispanic Asianand Pacific IslanderNon-HispanicOtherPercent of the Total Population 2015

National City and San Diego have thehighest percentages of non-HispanicAsian and Pacific Islander residents,with 17.8 percent and 16.7 percent,respectively. Out of 19 jurisdictions,Lemon Grove, is the only city wherenon-Hispanic blacks comprise morethan 10 percent of the total population(11.3 percent). Only four jurisdictionshave a non-Hispanic Asian and PacificIslander population higher than theregional average of 11 percent: ChulaVista, National City, Poway, and SanDiego (Figure 8 and Table 8).Figure 8Race/Ethnicity by Jurisdiction adDelMarEscondido, Imperial Beach, LemonGrove, National City, Oceanside, SanMarcos and Vista).HispanicSource: SANDAGWhiteBlackAsian and Pacific IslanderOtherTable 8Population by Race/Ethnicity by an and %81,57273.7%1,1421.0%8,3487.5%3,9163.5%Chula 9263.9%8553.6%Del Mar4,2382004.7%3,80889.9%60.1%1283.0%962.3%El 7,32438.9%2,6371.8%8,8176.0%3,6522.5%Imperial 1024.1%La 2,6454.5%Lemon %1,0764.1%National .9%77,2845.6%229,70916.8%52,1423.8%San %2,3504.2%2,2584.0%Solana oOceansidePowaySan DiegoUnincorporatedRegionSource: SANDAGJanuary 2016 9

Population by Ageand SexThe population of the San Diego regionincreased by 4.3 percent between2010 and 2015, and in terms of agecomposition the region saw the largestchanges in younger age groups (0to 9 years old) and in the older ages(those 60 and over). Children ages0 to 4 grew by almost 9 percent andthose ages 85 and over grew by 24.5percent. Meanwhile, many of thegroups between ages 10 and 60 sawpercentage decreases over that samefive-year period. The population ages45 to 49 decreased by 7.3 percent(Table 9).The increase in children ageszero to four can likely be attributedto rebounding fertility rates, whichtemporarily dropped during the GreatRecession. Overall, fertility in theUnited States has steadily decreased,with women having fewer children andstarting families at older ages3. Thisnationwide pattern is also reflected inlocal fertility rates. The increase in theolder age groups can be explainedby the aging Baby Boomer populationin the region and increases in lifeexpectancy at older ages. In generalthe American population is livinglonger, with many people surviving intotheir 80s or 90s.The region’s population of 3.2 millionin 2015 is split evenly between malesand females; however, the distributionof sex by age shows some diversity incomposition. San Diego County hastwo distinct population componentsaffecting its age structure. First, SanDiego County is home to numerousmilitary installations with more than100,000 uniformed service members atany one point in time.Table 9Population by Age Group, 2010 – 2015201020152010 – 2015 ChangeAge 296.3%198,5936.2%4,5642.4%10 – 14198,7166.4%195,4896.1%(3,227)-1.6%15 – 19225,0957.3%237,0757.3%11,9805.3%20 – 24270,7508.7%272,3698.4%1,6190.6%25 – 29250,7378.1%239,9407.4%(10,797)-4.3%30 – 34220,1857.1%235,2767.3%15,0916.9%35 – 39211,0126.8%209,5286.5%(1,484)-0.7%40 – 44209,5516.8%202,1196.3%(7,432)-3.5%45 – 49219,7957.1%203,7116.3%(16,084)-7.3%50 – 54210,9796.8%213,5426.6%2,5631.2%55 – 59180,3055.8%203,6666.3%23,36113.0%60 – 64149,3114.8%173,1495.4%23,83816.0%65 – 69103,2413.3%140,1894.3%36,94835.8%70 – 7477,3132.5%93,6502.9%16,33721.1%75 – 7964,3472.1%67,0592.1%2,7124.2%80 – 8452,5641.7%53,7041.7%1,1402.2%85 53,9601.7%67,1772.1%13,21724.5%All e: SANDAG estimatesFigure 9Population by Age and Sex in the San Diego Region, 201585 80 – 8475 – 7970 – 7465 – 6960 – 6455 – 5950 – 5445 – 4940 – 4435 – 3930 – 3425 – 2920 – 2415 – 1910 – 145–9Hamilton BE, Martin JA, Osterman MJK, et al. Births:Final data for 2014. National Vital Statistics Reports; Vol.64 No. 12. Hyattsville, MD: National Center for HealthStatistics. 2015.310 Demographics in the San Diego RegionUnder 5150,000100,000Source: SANDAG Estimates50,000050,000100,000Males150,000Females

Second, the presence of multipleuniversities ensures a constant flow ofcollege-aged persons in and out of theregion. The effects of these populationgroups can be seen in the consistentlylarge populations in their early twenties.The population pyramid in Figure 9shows the male and female populationby age group in 2015. A quick look atthis figure shows that males ages 20to 24 are the largest age group in theregion; larger than any other five-yearage group, male or female. Reflectiveof nationwide life expectancy rates,females in our region live longer thanmales, with the female population atages 85 and over substantially largerthan males.The region continues to grow olderas is evidenced by the change in agestructure. The median age4 in the SanDiego region was 35.3 years in 2015,up from 34.7 years in 2010. Differencesexist in median age by sex, with themedian age for males (34) beingslightly lower than that of females(36.8) in 2015.Figure 10Youth and Senior Populations by Jurisdiction, 1%20%18%16%EscondidoChula VistaOceansideVistaSan MarcosNational CityImperial BeachEl CajonLemon GroveRegionUnincorporatedSanteeCarsbadSan DiegoLa MesaPowayEncinitasSolana BeachCoronadoDel %17%22%17%28%12%Figure 11 illustrates the age structureof the population in the region by racialand ethnic groups. Overall, this figureshows that the non-Hispanic otherand Hispanic populations are moreconcentrated among the youngerage groups as compared to the olderages. By contrast the non-Hispanicwhite population is higher than anyother group at the ages over 65 andis lowest under 50 years old. Althoughthe non-Hispanic black population inthe region is evenly concentrated at allages, there is a jump in the young adultpopulation between ages 20 and 24,likely due to the military and collegepopulations in the region discussedearlier.Median age divides the population in two equalparts, half of all people are older than the medianage and half are younger.4Under 18Source: SANDAG EstimatesFigure 10 shows the concentrations ofthe youth (under 18) and senior (over65) populations by jurisdiction. Ninejurisdictions in the region have a higherpercentage of youth than the regionalaverage of 13 percent, with Vista,Oceanside, Chula Vista, and Escondidobeing the youngest. Eleven jurisdictionshave senior populations higher than theregional average, Del Mar being a clearoutlier with 28 percent of its populationover the age of 65.Over 65Figure 11Age Structure by Race/Ethnic Group, 201512.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%Sources: SANDAG estimatesTotal PopulationHispanicWhiteBlackAsian85 80 – 8475 – 7970 – 7465 – 6960 – 6455 – 5950 – 5445 – 4940 – 4435 – 3930 – 3425 – 2920 – 2415 – 1910 – 145–90–40.0%OtherJanuary 2016 11

Household IncomeBetween 2010 and 2015, the medianhousehold income in the San Diegoregion increased slightly from 63,586to 64,328 (in 2010 dollars); thistranslates to a 1.2 percent increase.Median household income varies fromjurisdiction to jurisdiction. It rangesfrom a low of 39,355 in National Cityto a high of 104,872 in Del Mar(Figure 12). Ten jurisdictions havemedian income values above theregional average.Notes and MethodologyThe fastest growing county in the statebetween 2010 and 2015 was SantaClara, at an average annual rate of 1.2percent. During that same time frame,San Diego County grew by an averagerate of 0.8 percent each year. This isin sharp contrast to the higher ratesof growth experienced in the regionduring the 1970s – 1990s. While theaverage growth rate was once as highas 3 percent during the 1970s, theregion’s growth has steadily slowedwith each passing decade (Figure 1).SANDAG continues to use theCalifornia Department of Finance(DOF) annual January 1 populationestimates as control totals for ourpopulation estimates at the jurisdictionlevel. The SANDAG housing unitinventory is developed in-housethrough extensive staff review andrelies on annual parcel-level data fromthe San Diego County Assessor, inaddition to orthophotography.SANDAG, in conjunction with localjurisdictions and the CaliforniaDepartment of Finance, has preparedannual population and housingestimates for nearly 40 years. Wealso prepare estimates of selecteddemographic and economiccharacteristics of the population,including age, gender, ethnicity, andhousehold income.Data Surfer allows users to selectcensus, estimates, and forecastvariables, create custom charts,graphs, and download datasets ina variety of file formats (.csv, .xlsx).Standard formatted profiles are alsoavailable for download as PDFs.In addition to preparing annualestimates of the region’s demographicand economic characteristics, SANDAGmaintains information from the censusin addition to preparing long-rangegrowth forecasts. This informationcan be downloaded directly fromSANDAG’s interactive data website,Data Surfer, and can be accessed athttp://datasurfer.sandag.org/.Customized data, reports, and mapsare also available through the SANDAGService Bureau. For more informationon these and other Service Bureauproducts and services, visitsandag.org/servicebureau or call(619) 699-1900.Figure 122015 Median Household Income (in 2010 dollars)Del Mar 104,872Poway 96,512Encinitas 93,216Coronado 91,731Solana Beach 91,280Carlsbad 88,103Santee 73,958Unincorporated 68,165San Diego 66,324Chula Vista 65,979Region 64,328Oceanside 59,150La Mesa 55,906San Marcos 55,603Lemon Grove 54,467Imperial Beach 49,966Escondido 49,395Vista 48,070El Cajon 45,292National City 39,355 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000@SANDAGregion 120,000@SANDAG1/16 3653

in Del Mar (Figure 4). The region’s vacancy rate in 2015 stood at 4.8 percent, down significantly from 6.1 percent in 2010. Vacancy rates throughout the region have steadily declined as the housing market continues to improve following the Great Recession. The jurisdic-tions with the highest vacancy rates include Coronado (20.7 percent), Del MarFile Size: 823KB

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