DRIVING TO 2050 - Canadian Fuels

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DRIVING TO2050T H E R O L E O F T R A N S P O RTAT I O N F U E LSI N C A N A D A’ S L O W - C A R B O N F U T U R E

We see remarkable change ahead.We see a future where Canadians achieve significant transportation GHG emissionreductions without compromising the ability to move people and goods. We seea future where Canada is a leader in the development of clean transportation-energychoices. A future where those choices include reliable, affordable low-carbonliquid fuels.ContentsThe challenge we face . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1An integrated approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions . . . . . . . . . . 3The future is now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7Driving to success . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Section 1The challengewe faceWhen Canadians look to the future and the possibilities thatlie ahead, they see a country defined by its strong and resilienteconomy, its leadership in a low-carbon world and the abilityto supply its own energy needs.Canada’s refining industry shares our country’s bold aspirations and will do its part to help builda prosperous low-carbon future while continuing to enable the transportation infrastructure thatCanadians have come to rely on. Our challenge has been made more difficult and the future lesscertain due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but we will remain committed to continued leadership intomorrow’s low-carbon economy.A nation on the moveTransportation is essential to Canadians’ way of life and a healthy economy. Meeting the transportationneeds of more than 37 million people across nearly ten million square kilometres is no small task, especiallytaking into account vast regional differences in climate, geography, infrastructure and energy needs.The people of our industry fuel the trucks, trains, ships and aircraft that move the vital goods thatCanadians rely on every day – within and beyond our borders. Transportation fuels ensure that Canadacan succeed in a global marketplace.Achieving significant emission reductions is a daunting challenge for a country as large and diverseas Canada. Traditionally, nearly half (45%) of Canada’s emissions have come from sources needed togenerate heat, electricity and industrial power. Transportation was the second largest source at 25%.The future is uncertain, but our industry is committed to the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growthand Climate Change. We are up to the task of delivering emissions reductions while supporting a healthyeconomy and providing secure and reliable solutions to Canada’s energy needs.A time for transformationMembers of the Canadian Fuels Association believe that achieving our national emissions-reductiontargets and meeting Canada’s commitments under the Paris Agreement will require a profoundchange – nothing short of a transformation in our transportation energy system.The early stages of this transformation are already underway. Canadians are beginning to make differenttransportation fuel choices. We are questioning the way we use those fuels while looking for ways tomake them cleaner and more efficient.canadianfuels.ca1

Road transportation accountsfor more than 75% of totaltransportation emissions.We’re readyEnergy transformation will mean big changes for Canada’s transportationfuels industry. We have a major role to play. We are ready to supportCanada’s post-pandemic recovery and beyond by:Transportation emissions by mode, 20175%4%41% Reducing GHG emissions at the lowest possible cost toRoad passenger3%11%society – because we need to balance our emissions reductionswith maintaining a healthy economyRoad freightAir Leveraging and adapting existing infrastructure andexpertise – to enable us to respond faster and with greater agility. Enhancing domestic energy security – so that Canada can actindependently and harness our domestic capability.MarineRailOff-roadWe have met Canadians’ evolving transportation-fuel needs andexpectations for more than a century. Now, we are focused on findingsolutions to reduce transportation GHG emissions and using Canadianresources to support our country in creating a low-carbon economy.36%Road passengerMarineRoad freightRailAirOff-roadWe see opportunities to develop new technologies and processes, andto adapt the existing fuel-production and distribution infrastructure.We’re seizing these opportunities now with refinery co-generationinitiatives, for example, that generate most of the energy needed on-site(see page 9). And using carbon capture and storage (CCS), we arereducing CO2 emissions by millions of tonnes (see page 10).Totals may not add up due to rounding.Source: Natural Resources CanadaWe see the benefits of collaborating in more strategic and innovativeways with vehicle manufacturers, technology developers and providers,and other energy sectors. These collaborations are already deliveringresults in the pursuit of new biomass-based fuel formulations (seepage 9).Petroleum fuels power morethan 95% of transportation.Energy use in the transportation sector, 20171% 1.5%55%3.5%11%GasolineWe also see the need to diversify our transportation-energyproducts, distribute more types of fuel and satisfy a broader rangeof business and consumer needs – all while reducing emissions.One of the best examples of this is the deployment of electricfast-charger facilities and hydrogen refuelling sites at traditionalfilling stations (see page 11).DieselAviation fuelsBiofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel)Heavy fuel oil28%GasolineDieselAviation fuelsBiofuels (ethanol, biodiesel,renewable diesel)Heavy fuel oilOther (natural gas, propane,electricity)Source: Natural Resources Canada2Canadian Fuels Association   Driving to 2050Other (natural gas, propane, electricity)

Section 2Arrow-Circle-Down Arrow-Circle-Down Arrow-Circle-DownAN INTEGRATEDAPPROACHTO REDUCINGTRANSPORTATIONGHG EMISSIONSThe complexity of the climate change challenge means that there will beno single fix. We must be ready to pursue a range of solutions, specifically:Provide morelow-carbonfuel da stable policyenvironmentThe benefit of an integrated approach is to fuse the ingenuity of industry, governmentsand academia to develop solutions as diverse as Canadians’ energy needs.canadianfuels.ca3

1Provide more low-carbonfuel choicesCanada’s future will demand a variety of fuels and vehicle types thatis as diverse as the transportation modes we use and the geographywe face. Our members see immense potential for fuel choices in threebroad categories: low-carbon liquids, electric and gaseous. As Canadamoves into this diversified fuel future, each option should havethe opportunity to build its strength, relevance and value in acompetitive market.LOW-CARBON LIQUIDSELECTRICITYIs there a future for liquid fuels? Absolutely. Canadians have reliedon liquid transportation fuels for nearly 125 years. These fuels deliversafety, dependability, convenience and affordability in all transportationmodes. Gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel are available 24/7 througha sophisticated nation-wide system – the result of billions of dollars ofinvestment and decades of innovation. These fuels will remain vital tomeet Canada’s transportation energy needs as alternatives mature. Inthe meantime, the environmental performance of liquid fuels willcontinue to improve.Electrification offers GHG emissions reduction potential mainly inlight-duty vehicles (LDVs). The shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is alreadyunderway, but the pace has been relatively slow. As a result, EVs accountfor only a small market share. However, a significant acceleration of thistechnology is likely to occur as costs come down, battery performanceimproves, and the fast-recharging infrastructure expands, especially inurban and suburban settings.CFA members aim to reduce GHG emissions without sacrificing fuelperformance. Cleaner fuel means lower carbon intensity – throughbiofuel blending, for example. Agricultural crops such as corn andcanola are used to produce liquid biofuels today. Eventually, biomassfuels will come from agricultural, forestry and urban solid waste, aswell as algae and other products, all of which will be co-processedwith petroleum feedstocks. In the early stages of development, theseadvanced products are referred to as “drop-in” biofuels, because theycould power today’s vehicles and be stored and distributed in existinginfrastructure. Biomass-based liquid fuels are ideal for emissionreduction in aviation and heavy road freight, where high energydensity is essential, and electrification impractical.Synthetic fuels – also known as e-fuels or “power to liquids” (PtL) – areanother area of innovation. They are created using captured CO2 andgreen or blue hydrogen produced from renewable electricity. Asdrop-in hydrocarbons, synthetic fuels are compatible with existingfleets and liquid fuel infrastructure and offer strong potential to fuelaviation and heavy road-freight modes where high energy densityis critical.4Canadian Fuels Association   Driving to 2050Hydrogen fuel-cell electric power is a promising alternative for heavyfreight vehicles because it is not limited by the range, recharging-timeand energy-density restrictions of battery electric power. Advancementof fuel cell technology – and greater market adoption – is currentlyconstrained by limited hydrogen production, as well as the absenceof hydrogen distribution and refuelling infrastructure.GASEOUS FUELSNatural gas and propane already power fleet vehicles such as taxis,local delivery and heavy freight trucks. These vehicles produce up to25% less GHG emissions than gasoline or diesel equivalents.Historically, gaseous-fuelled vehicles have held a minor market share.Widespread adoption has been hindered by high vehicle-acquisitioncosts and limited refuelling infrastructure. As impediments fall away,the transformation opportunities for gaseous fuels will likely remainin commercial and government fleets.

2Improve vehiclefuel efficiency3RethinkmobilityThis is another action that is key to an integrated approach to reducingGHG emissions. Recent advances in vehicle fuel efficiency have alreadyled to reductions. Those gains are due primarily to upgrades in internalcombustion engines (ICEs). Experts see significant potential to furtheroptimize the fuel and emissions efficiencies of ICE-powered vehicles.In fact, widely adopted ICE technology improvements could provide thegreatest short-term reductions in fuel consumption and GHG emissions.The pandemic has shown us that we may not need to travel as muchas we think. When we do, we can use less energy and reduce emissionsby choosing lower fuel- and emissions-intensive transportation modesand systems. In cities, this means offering more choices: public transit,ride-sharing, cycling, walking. Urban densification is critical to situatemore Canadians in proximity to the services they need.Shifting modes between cities means upgrading rail infrastructure andinvesting in new high-speed rail corridors to reduce reliance on roadand air travel. It means restructuring freight logistics systems to movegoods by less energy intensive modes.4Build a stablepolicy environmentGovernment action is the final element in an integrated approach toreducing transportation GHG emissions. Canadian Fuels memberssupport a strong regulatory system of environmental protection thatis coherent and consistent to enable complex industries and supplychains to meet Canadians’ needs and expectations. Policy instrumentsneed to respect technology-neutral solutions and not createunnecessary regulatory hurdles. Smart public policy creates a stableregulatory environment that drives private sector investment andhelps accelerate change.What will the future of transportationfuels look like?For any future fuel option to succeed, it must meet basic minimumrequirements related to scale, ease of substitution, reliability, commercialreadiness, sustainability and affordability. These demands make itdifficult to forecast the future fuel mix. The uncertainty can besummarized in two basic questions:How fast and how far will technologies develop?Breakthroughs and setbacks are inevitable with any new technology.This is one of the main reasons we must avoid picking winners, remain“technology neutral” and keep our range of potential fuel and vehiclesolutions open. We may need to make nimble shifts as the technologicallandscape changes. Events such as the COVID-19 pandemic could stallemerging technologies and highlight the value of leveraging andadapting our current, reliable fuel infrastructure.What choices will consumers make?Consumers have immense influence over the future of transportationfuels. In a competitive market, Canadians will pay close attention andmake decisions based on their assessment of technologies that bestmeet their needs.Arrow-Circle-Down Arrow-Circle-Down Arrow-Circle-Downcanadianfuels.ca5

Arrow-Circle-Down Arrow-Circle-Down Arrow-Circle-DownA glimpse aheadThe way we fuel transportation in 2050 will be different than the way we do it today. Transformation is inevitable, and our members will be part ofthe process and ultimate solution. The future will require a diverse mix of fuels and vehicles. There will be no ‘one size fits all’ fuel solution. Vaclav Smil,Distinguished Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Environment at the University of Manitoba adds another proviso: “ the unfolding energy transitiontowards decarbonization will inevitably follow the progress of all previous large-scale primary energy shifts. In other words it will be a gradual,prolonged affair.”1Here is one vision of a potential future that finds promise in all fuel options and acknowledges the need for different solutions in various modes.Electricity & hydrogen         Natural gas & propane         Low-carbon liquids         Petroleum fuelsLight duty vehiclesHeavy duty vehicles – transport trucksAviationMarineRail2020Light duty vehiclesA significant shift toelectricity is likely forlight duty vehicles (LDVs)in urban and suburbansettings. Transformationopportunities for gaseousfuels are mainly incommercial andgovernment LDV fleets.2030Heavy duty vehicles –transport trucksHydrogen fuel cells offerpromise as an electrificationoption for long distanceheavy freight transport;natural gas, especially inliquefied form (LNG), alsooffers promise. But liquidfuels continue to dominate.2040AviationBiomass-based andsynthetic liquid fuels areideal emissions-reductionsolutions in aviation andheavy freight, where highenergy density is essential.Electricity could be a pathforward for lighter aircrafton short-haul routes.MarineNatural gas, low-carbonliquids and petroleum arethe main fuels of choice.Hydrogen fuel cells arethe only practical electri fication option.2050RailRail becomes one ofthe most balanced modesby fuel option, being wellsuited to all four futurefuel options.1 Smil, V. 2019. What we need to know about the pace of decarbonization. Substantia. ubstantia.pdf6Canadian Fuels Association   Driving to 2050

Section 3The futureis nowAs we journey into an uncertain future, ourindustry’s scientific, engineering and businessexpertise will continue to advance Canadianinnovation, create new jobs and power Canadato greater prosperity.canadianfuels.ca7

A tradition of innovationInnovation has defined the refining industry’s progress for more than 125 years.When the auto industry advanced power-train technology early in the 20th century, we kept pace with thefuels automobiles needed to run smoothly and effectively. For half a century we have worked collaborativelywith governments and industry to improve the environmental performance of vehicles and fuels. Perhaps themost remarkable success has been the deep reductions in vehicle emissions of sulphur oxides, nitrogen oxidesand volatile organic compounds. Since 2005 alone, we have invested more than 5 billion to reduce sulphurcontent by more than 90% in gasoline and 97% in diesel fuel.New ideas. New methods.New products.Canada’s refining industry is now applyingits experience and ingenuity to develop“made in Canada” climate-change solutions.Innovations in carbon-intensity reductioninclude production process improvements,biomass-based fuels, carbon captureand storage (CCS), synthetic fuels, andexpanding the existing distributionand retail infrastructure to diversifyproduct offerings and create more choice forconsumers. These innovations will unfold ina phased approach to transform operationsand increase the refining sector’s role in thelow-carbon economy.FOUNDATIONPHASE1PHASE2Seize immediate opportunities to increaseoperational energy efficiency.Process improvements, biomass-based fuels, CCS,expanding existing distribution and retail infrastructureTRANSFORMATIONProgressively increase number of low-emissioncomponents and range of low-carbon feedstocks.Process improvements, biomass-based fuels, CCSREALIZATIONPHASE3Become a production and distribution hub forlow-emission energy products and raw materials.Process improvements, biomass-based fuels, CCS,synthetic fuelsAdapted from Figure 2, pg. 30, CONCAWE Review, Volume 29, Number 1, June eviews/8Canadian Fuels Association   Driving to 2050

PROCESS IMPROVEMENTSPHASES123Process improvements along the whole productionand distribution value chain will continue to drive downthe carbon intensity of fuels. New resource-extractiontechniques, improved energy management, processoptimization, reduced flaring, switching to low-carbonenergy sources and co-generation are prime examplesof work now underway to reduce energy consumptionand emissions.Co-generation captures process heat to generate electricityor produce steam. The process could enable a productionfacility to produce enough energy to meet on-site demand.Larger co-generation initiatives can produce excesselectricity for connection into provincial grids.Imperial’s co-generation facility at its Edmontonrefinery captures gas that is a by-product of operationsto produce 80% of the electricity the refinery needs.Waste heat from the process will be used to produceenough steam to meet half the refinery’s needs.BIOMASS-BASED FUELSPHASES123We are continuing to leverage innovation and work with vehiclemanufacturers to give consumers additional lower-carbon fuel choicesthat can be safely used in existing vehicles. A key objective is to supplylower-carbon liquid fuels that are cost and emissions competitive withalternatives. We see significant opportunities to leverage the superiorenergy density of liquids and the continuing improvements in ICEvehicle technology to deliver the affordable emissions reductionssolutions Canadians want.Canada’s refiners were some of the earliest investors in ethanolproduction. Now, they operate some of Canada’s largest ethanolproduction facilities. Valero Energy’s Canadian operations areleveraging the parent company’s significant US ethanol and renewablediesel production capacity. Federated Co-operatives Ltd. is themost recent Canadian refiner to invest in its own ethanol productionfacility. Industry investments include extensive terminal and retailconversions to enable more biofuel blending across Canada.Other investments focus on dedicated bio-refineries and advancedbiofuels that expand the feedstock mix and deliver greater emissionsreductions. Canada is in a unique position to be a leader in theproduction of these drop-in biofuels. For example, Suncor is investingin the production of cellulosic ethanol from municipal solid waste.Co-processing of biomassfeedstocks like bio oils withpetroleum feedstocks is a promisingway to produce low-carbon drop-intransportation fuels. Currentinnovation efforts are examiningmultiple feedstocks and processingmethods. Parkland is a Canadianleader in this approach at itsBurnaby, British Columbia refinery;their co-processed fuels areapproximately 85 percent lesscarbon intensive than conventionalfuels. Tidewater is also in the earlystages of developing a co-processingfacility at its refinery in Prince George,British Columbia. Co-processing hasthe potential to become a significantway to decarbonize liquid fuels andlower the carbon content in each ofa refinery’s productscanadianfuels.ca9

CARBON CAPTURE ANDSTORAGE (CCS)PHASES123CCS is essential to global energy transformation.The technology captures, liquifies and injects CO2underground for safe and permanent storage.Canada is a world leader in CCS, which is alreadyhelping to reduce the carbon intensity ofliquid fuels.In Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, the Shell-operated Quest CCS project has capturedand safely stored five million tonnes of CO2 – the most of any onshore facility inthe world. Five million tonnes of CO2 is equal to the annual emissions from about1.25 million cars.The North West RedwaterPartnership’s Sturgeon refinerynorth of Edmonton is Canada’s newestrefinery and the first such facility in theworld to integrate CCS into its originaldesign, enabling the development ofcleaner, high-value products.10Canadian Fuels Association   Driving to 2050

E X PA N D I N G T H E R E F U E LL I N G I N F R AST R U CT U R EPHASES123Credit: Shell International Ltd.Canadians want transportation energy options. The lack of a refuellinginfrastructure for alternative fuels such as electricity has been an obstacleto greater choice. Liquid-fuel distributors are diversifying their productofferings to include propane, electricity, hydrogen and natural gas.And we’re moving beyond electricity. In a first for Canada, Shell hasopened two retail hydrogen-refuelling stations in Vancouver and plansto further expand the network. Federated Co-operatives Ltd. hasexpanded its E85 offering at retail sites in British Columbia.An early adopter of EV technology in Atlantic Canada, Irving Oil hostsfast-charger stations at many of its locations. Suncor has deployed afirst of its kind electric network enabling customers to re-charge electricvehicles at Petro-Canada branded high-speed charging stations alongthe full length of the Trans-Canada highway.SYNTHETIC FUELSPHASE3The production of synthetic fuels at scale is a longer-term undertakingwith significant technical and commercial challenges to be overcome.These fuels could include “green” hydrogen, which is created usingemissions-free electricity.Suncor is an early investor in process-technology intellectual propertyfor the conversion of CO2 to liquid fuels. The technology has thepotential to support multiple Canadian plants in the future.canadianfuels.ca11

Section 4Driving to successRemarkable changes lie ahead. And Canada’sopportunity is to be at the environmental andeconomic forefront.12Canadian Fuels Association   Driving to 2050

We all share a responsibility to take timely action and focus on sharedaspirations for a healthy environment and a safe, prosperous future.We have the responsibility to work together across industrial sectors,jurisdictional boundaries and political lines.Collaboration is critical as we strive to balance Canada’s economic andenvironmental goals. That’s why Canadian Fuels has taken a leadingrole in the Clean Resources Innovation Network (CRIN). CRIN is a groupof progressive oil and gas industry professionals, innovators, financiers,policy-makers, academics and students committed to clean hydrocarbon energy and a strong Canadian economy. Canadian Fuels memberslead the CRIN Cleaner Fuels theme group focussed on developinglower-emissions fuels.Our partnerships extend beyond Canada to include internationalcolleagues directly or through organizations like IPIECA – the globaloil and gas industry association for advancing environmental andsocial performance.Our commitment to CanadiansAs Canada’s transportation fuels providers, our commitmentis to continue to make significant contributions to a strongand resilient economy as well as meaningful reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions. Through collaboration, we willdeliver emissions reductions without compromising ourability to move people and goods across Canada and beyond.Together, we will build a future where Canada is a leader inthe development of clean transportation energy choices –a future where those choices include reliable, cost effectiveand low-carbon liquid fuels.

We represent Canada’s transportation fuels industry.Our sector contributes over 10 billion to Canada’s GDP each year and employs more than 117,000 Canadiansat 15 oil refineries, 78 fuel distribution terminals and 12,000 retail and commercial sites. The association helpsits members meet government environmental policy objectives and the expectations of Canadians withoutcompromising our country’s access to a secure, reliable and competitively priced fuel supply.We are recognized internationally as a trusted source of industry information and technical expertise, and haveworked collaboratively and productively with governments and other sectors for decades.1000-275 Slater Street, Ottawa, ON K1P 5H9613-232-3709  canadianfuels.caFacebook-F Linkedin-In TWITTER

Source: Natural Resources Canada Gasoline Diesel Aviation fuels 36 5 3 11 41 4 Road passenger Road freight Air arine Rail Off-road Energy use in the transportation sector, 2017 Transportation emissions by mode, 2017 Petroleum fuels power more than 95% of transportation Road transportation accounts for more than 75% of total transportation emissions

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