California Auto Outlook TM Publication Sponsored By
California Auto OutlookPublication Sponsored By:TMComprehensive information on the California vehicle marketVolume 16, Number 4Released November 2020Covering Third Quarter 2020State Market Shows Signs of Recovery; 12 Percent Increase Predicted for 2021California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 20212.5New vehicle regs. 932.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.091.671.871.291.00.50.0'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20* '21*Historical data source: AutoCount data from Experian.Years*‘20 and ‘21 forecasts by Auto Outlook.New vehicle registrations in California are expected to decline to1.67 million units in 2020, down20 percent from last year.Latest projections are for themarket to approach 1.9 millionunits in 2021, an increase of 12%percent from this year.Accumulating pent up demand andlow interest rates will support themarket next year, while expectedslow improvement in employmentshould prevent a sharp rebound.California Total New Light Vehicle Registrations and U.S. New Vehicle Sales - YTD 2019 & 2020, thru SeptemberYTD '19TWO YEARPERSPECTIVERegistrationsTOTALCarLight TruckDomesticEuropeanJapaneseKoreanMarket ShareCarLight TruckDomesticEuropeanJapaneseKoreanCaliforniaYTD '20ChangeYTD '19U.S.YTD '20Change1,589,843 1,199,446 -24.6% 12,809,063 10,452,763 -18.4%671,207440,054 -34.4% 3,693,050 2,564,966 -30.5%918,636759,392 -17.3% 9,116,013 7,887,797 -13.5%507,682390,159 -23.1% 5,760,331 4,773,224 -17.1%239,249178,736 -25.3% 1,204,898994,992 -17.4%731,705543,445 -25.7% 4,858,971 3,801,487 -21.8%111,20787,106 -21.7%984,863883,060 5.545.79.536.48.4-4.34.30.70.1-1.50.7California new light vehicle market declined 24.6 percent duringthe first nine months of this yearversus a year earlier. The U.S.market fell 18.4 percent.Retail vehicle sales in the statehave held up better in 2020. Newretail registrations fell 19.5 sofar this year.Light truck registrations in thestate declined 17.3 percentversus the 34.4 percent drop forpassenger cars.Source for California new vehicle registrations: AutoCount data from Experian. Source for U.S. sales: Automotive News.% chgange vs. year earlierQUARTERLYRESULTSCalifornia Quarterly New Light Vehicle RegistrationsPercent Change vs. Year EarlierThe rate of decline in the statemarket eased in the ThirdQuarter of this year. 3Q ‘20registrations fell by 19.6 percentversus a year earlier, an improvement from the 48.9 percent dropin the Second %-4.3%-19.6%-48.9%2Q '19 vs. 3Q '19 vs. 4Q '19 vs. 1Q '20 vs. 2Q '20 vs. 3Q '20 vs.2Q '183Q '184Q '181Q '192Q '193Q '19Data source: AutoCount data from Experian.Wildfires and a slowly recoveringlabor market contributed to thenearly 20 percent decline in theThird Quarter. The market couldpost a small increase in theFourth Quarter.
Page 2California Auto OutlookSEGMENT MARKET SHARE TRENDSSmall Car Market Share Declined to 16 PercentSegment Market Shares in CaliforniaYTD 2019 thru SeptemberSegment Market Shares in CaliforniaYTD 2020 thru SeptemberLuxury & SportsCars, 11%Luxury & SportsCars, 10%Non Luxury SUVs,30%Non Luxury MidSize & Large Cars,13%Non Luxury SUVs,33%Non Luxury MidSize & Large Cars,10%Non Luxury SUVYTD ‘19:Non Luxury SUVYTD ‘20:30%Luxury SUVs, 11%Pickups and Vans,16%Small Cars, 19%33%Luxury SUVs, 13%Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.Small Cars, 16%Pickups and Vans,18%Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first nine months of 2019 and 2029.HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLESHybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share Have Moved Higher During 2020Hybrid/electric vehiclemarket share - YTD ‘20 thru Sept.:Estimated Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Market Share14.3 percent7.0%6.0%Market Share5.0%Estimated Hybrid and Electric New Vehicle Registrations and Market Share4.0%3.0%Electric registrations2.0%Electric share1.0%0.0%Hybrid regs. (excl. plug ins)2015Electric201620172018Hybrid (excl. plug ins)2019YTD '20Plug In HybridHybrid share (excl. plug ins)2016201741932593881.9%2.7%105934 1011802019YTD202099121 1067527316620184.6%5.1%6.1%92658 117218767654.8%4.6%4.3%5.6%6.4%Plug in hybrid regs.3751848391646445232921590Plug in hybrid share1.7%2.2%3.0%2.5%1.8%The graph above shows estimated hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle market share in the state. Registrations by powertrain for vehicles equipped with multipleengine types were estimated by Auto Outlook. The estimates are based on model registrations compiled by Experian, and engine installation rates collected from othersources.
Covering Third Quarter 2020Page 3MODEL RANKINGSHonda Civic and Toyota RAV4 Are Top Sellers in CaliforniaThe table below shows the topfive selling models during thefirst nine months of 2020 in 20segments. In addition to unitregistrations, it also shows eachmodel’s market share in its respective segment.BEST SELLERS IN PRIMARY SEGMENTSCompact Car: Honda CivicFull Size Pickup: Ford F-SeriesMid Size Car: Toyota CamryCompact SUV: Toyota RAV4Near Luxury Car: Tesla Model 3Mid Size SUV: Toyota HighlanderLuxury Car: Mercedes E-ClassLuxury Mid Size SUV: Lexus RXTop Selling Models in Each Segment - New Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2020, thru September)CarsSubcompactCompactSports/Pony CarsRegs. ShareMid SizeModelRegs. ShareModelModelRegs. ShareModelChevrolet Bolt5151 20.1Honda Civic4604631.4Ford Mustang6455 34.9Toyota Camry4046633.9Kia Soul4671 18.3Toyota Corolla3193621.8Dodge Challenger623733.7Honda Accord3136926.3Honda Fit429916.8Toyota Prius115827.9Chevrolet Camaro293915.9Nissan Altima111119.3Nissan Versa408216.0Nissan Sentra102737.0Mazda MX510715.8Ford Fusion91117.6Chevrolet Spark18147.186145.9Hyundai Veloster8584.6Kia K5/Optima80066.7Kia ForteLargeEntry LuxuryNear LuxuryModelRegs. ShareModelRegs. ShareModelDodge Charger863267.9Mercedes A-Class2793Tesla Model 3Toyota Avalon138510.9Mercedes CLA-Class216320.2Nissan Maxima10718.4BMW 2-Series210519.6Chrysler 3009337.3Audi A3169015.8Chevrolet Impala5784.5Acura ILX146613.726.1Regs. ShareLuxury and High End Sports CarsRegs. ShareModelRegs. Share3154843.8Mercedes E-Class458613.9BMW 3-Series733610.2BMW 5-Series399312.1Lexus ES65309.1Tesla Model S348910.6Mercedes C-Class52747.3Porsche 91117545.3Audi A427823.9Audi A617285.2Light TrucksCompact/Mid Size PickupModelFull Size PickupRegs. ShareToyota TacomaFord RangerModelMini VanRegs. ShareLarge VanModelRegs. ShareModelRegs. Share2837252.7Ford F-Series3826031.9Honda Odyssey669833.8Ford Transit Connect870716.2Chevrolet Silverado3125926.0Chrysler Pacifica497125.1Ram Promaster1159147.4326613.3Chevrolet Colorado661012.3Ram Pickup2941224.5Toyota Sienna386619.5Mercedes Sprinter321013.1Jeep Gladiator45148.4GMC Sierra1277610.6Chrysler Voyager262913.3Nissan NV291511.9Nissan Frontier26214.9Toyota Tundra75166.38484.3Chevrolet Express19217.9Subcompact SUVKia SedonaCompact SUVModelRegs. ShareModelHonda HR-V9012Toyota RAV415.6Mid Size SUVRegs. Share4171523.1ModelLarge SUVRegs. ShareToyota HighlanderModelRegs. Share1503811.3Chevrolet Tahoe435327.0Toyota C-HR739012.8Honda CR-V2465313.6Ford Explorer1336310.1Ford Expedition323120.1Hyundai Kona587910.2Jeep Wrangler147268.2Subaru Outback120239.0Chevrolet Suburban220413.7Nissan Kicks48378.4Mazda CX5145088.0Jeep Grand Cherokee91876.9GMC Yukon202012.5Kia Niro41387.2Subaru Forester135997.5Honda Pilot89716.7Nissan Armada15049.3Luxury Subcompact SUVLuxury Compact SUVLuxury Mid Size SUVModelRegs. ShareModelRegs. ShareModelLexus UX363918.8Tesla Model Y916316.2Lexus RXAudi Q3318316.4Lexus NX839214.8Mercedes GLE-ClassLuxury Large SUVRegs. ShareModelRegs. Share1198019.6Mercedes GLS-Class300421.3667210.9Land Rover Range Rover240717.1Mercedes GLB-Class314416.2BMW X3661211.7BMW X5618910.1BMW X7235216.7Mercedes GLA-Class298615.4Mercedes GLC-Class623911.0Tesla Model X53848.8Cadillac Escalade173712.3BMW X1263613.6Audi Q552809.3Acura MDX37046.1Cadillac XT611758.3Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian. Figures for Prius include Prius Prime.
Page 4California Auto OutlookBRAND SUMMARYToyota, Honda, and Ford Are Top Three Selling Brands in CaliforniaPercent Change in Brand Registrations - YTD ‘20 thru Sept. vs. YTD ‘19(Top 30 selling brands in a-16.0%Kia-17.7%Land 5.0%-50.0%California and U.S. Market Share - YTD ‘20 thru Sept.(Top 15 selling brands in teU.S.Mazda-25.0%0.0%25.0%0.0%Percent change in registrationsRegistrations declined by less than14 percent for Chrysler, Lincoln, Volvo, GMC, Ram, Porsche, and MazdaData Source: AutoCount data from Experian.2.5%1.9%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%Market ShareToyota, Honda, Ford, Chevrolet,and Nissan were market shareleaders in California
Covering Third Quarter 2020Page 5BRAND REGISTRATIONSDetailed Results for All Brands in California MarketCalifornia New Car and Light Truck RegistrationsThird QuarterTOTALRegistrations3Q '193Q '20514,185413,227Acura5,158Alfa finiti3,421Jaguar1,147Jeep15,150Kia20,253Land e: AutoCount data from 7133,68711,44518,31517,01771,6699,1273,597% .4-8.6-10.1-10.5-16.3-24.43.3Market Share (%)3Q '193Q 20.92.84.44.117.32.20.9Year to date thru SeptemberRegistrationsMarket Share (%)ChangeYTD '19YTD '20 % changeYTD '19YTD '201,589,843 .50.40.8-0.30.1The table above shows new light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in California. Figures are shown for the Third Quarters of 2019 and 2020,and year to date totals. Vehicle registrations are recorded based on when the vehicle title information is processed by the state, which typically occursafter the vehicle is sold. The top ten ranked brands in each category are shaded yellowCalifornia Auto OutlookPublished by: Auto Outlook, Inc., PO Box 390 Exton, PA 19341 Phone 610-640-1233 Email: jfoltz@autooutlook.comAny material quoted must be attributed to California Auto Outlook, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the California New Car Dealers Association. Data source must also beshown as “Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian” Please contact CNCDA with any questions or comments regarding the publication. Copyright: Auto Outlook, Inc. Sept., 2020.At Auto Outlook, we strive to provide sound and accurate analyses and forecasts based upon the data available to us. However, our forecasts are derived from third-party data andcontain a number of assumptions made by Auto Outlook and its management, including, without limitation, the accuracy of the data compiled. As a result, Auto Outlook can makeno representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the data we provide or the forecasts or projections that we make based upon such data. Auto Outlookexpressly disclaims any such warranties, and undue reliance should not be placed on any such data, forecasts, projections, or predictions. Auto Outlook undertakes no obligation toupdate or revise any predictions or forecasts, whether as a result of any new data, the occurrence of future events, or otherwise.
Page 6California Auto OutlookBREAKDOWN OF RETAIL AND FLEET MARKETSState Retail Registrations Declined 19.5 Percent So Far in 2020 vs. 42.1 Percent Drop for FleetsCalifornia New Car and Light Truck Retail and Fleet Registrations - YTD ‘18, ‘19, & ‘20 thru Sept.800000700000Registrations600000500000PERCENT CHANGE:YTD ‘20 vs. YTD ‘19400000300000Retail cars: DOWN 29.5%200000Retail light trucks: DOWN 11.8%1000000Fleet cars: DOWN 54.5%Retail Light TrucksRetail Passenger CarsYTD '18YTD '19Fleet Light TrucksFleet Passenger CarsFleet light trucks: DOWN 34.6%YTD '20Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.REGIONAL MARKETS IN CALIFORNIASouthern California Market Declines at Slightly Slower PacePercent Change in New Retail Registrations - YTD ‘20 vs. YTD ‘19New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (excluding fleets) YTD '20, Sept.North and South CaliforniaYTD '19YTD '20% chg.Statewide %Light Trucks697,421614,795-11.8%Northern 2.3%Light Trucks245,549215,090-12.4%Southern 8.1%Light Trucks451,872399,705-11.5%Selected Regional MarketsSan Francisco t Trucks131,355109,737-16.5%LA and Orange 3%Light Trucks263,004224,013-14.8%San Diego ht Trucks62,20257,209-8.0%Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.NORTHERN CALIFORNIACars DOWN 32.3%Light trucks DOWN 12.4%SOUTHERN CALIFORNIACars DOWN 28.1%Light trucks DOWN 11.5%
Covering Third Quarter 2020Page 7SEGMENT CLOSE-UP: MID SIZE SUVsToyota and Ford Lead State Mid Size SUV SegmentModel Sales LeadersTop 10 Selling Models in State for Two Row and Three Row Mid Size SUVs - YTD 2020 thru Sept.Market Share for Two Row Mid Size SUVsMarket Share for Three Row Mid Size SUVs23.8%Subaru Outback11.0%Chevrolet TraverseFord Edge10.6%Subaru Ascent6.6%Nissan MuranoVW Atlas Cross SportBuick EnvisionKia Sorento5.3%Kia Telluride5.3%3.9%2.4%Nissan Pathfinder4.8%VW Atlas4.5%1.0%Mid Size SUVs:DOWN 19.6%IndustryDOWN 24.6%7.1%5.4%5.3%Honda Passport9.2%Hyunai PalisadeMid Size SUV segment isperforming better thanthe overall market.% Change in New Vehicle RegistrationsYTD ‘19 thru Sept. to YTD ‘2010.9%Honda PilotHyundai Santa FeChevrolet Blazer16.2%Ford Explorer16.9%Toyota 4Runner#118.3%Toyota Highlander18.2%Jeep Grand CherokeeTwoKeyTrends#2Three row SUVs accountfor higher share of themarket.3 Row SUV Share of Mid Size SUV Segment - YTD ‘19 and YTD ‘20 (Sept.)YTD 2019:64.0%YTD 2020:62.0%Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.Brand Market Share in State Mid Size SUV Segment - YTD 2019 and YTD 2020 (thru Sept.)20.018.0Hyundai, Ford, and Toyota had the largest market shareincreases over the past year.17.917.0YTD '19YTD '20Share of Mid Size SUV Segment 00.0ToyotaFordSubaruData Source: AutoCount data from GMC1.8 1.9Mazda1.2 1.2Buick
Page 8California Auto OutlookCALIFORNIA USED VEHICLE MARKETUsed Vehicle Market Out Performs New Vehicle Market During 2020Percent Change in New and Used Vehicle Registrations - YTD ‘20 thru September vs. YTD ‘193 KEY TRENDS INUSED 5.0%-24.6%-50.0%New vehiclesAll used vehicles3 year old or newerused vehicles4 to 6 year oldused vehicles03.7 to 10 year oldused vehiclesData Source: AutoCount data from Experian.Used vehicle registrations inCalifornia declined 8.2 percentduring the first nine monthsof 2020, better than the 24.6percent drop for new vehicles.The nearly new used vehiclemarket (3 years old or newer)declined at a faster pace thanolder vehicles.Used vehicle market has beengiven a boost by sparse newvehicle inventories and costconscious consumers. Usedvehicle market should remainrelatively strong for severalmonths.CALIFORNIA USED VEHICLE MARKETToyota Share of Six Year Old or Newer Used Vehicle Market Approaches 13 PercentTop 15 Selling Brands in California Used Vehicle Market (vehicles 6 years old or newer)YTD 2020 thru .0%Data Source: AutoCount data from Experian.5.4%4.6%4.3%3.8%3.3%3.1%3.1%2.8%2.3%2.3%
Honda Fit 4299 16.8 Toyota Prius 11582 7.9 Chevrolet Camaro 2939 15.9 Nissan Altima 11111 9.3 Nissan Versa 4082 16.0 Nissan Sentra 10273 7.0 Mazda MX5 1071 5.8 Ford Fusion 9111 7.6 Chevrolet Spark 1814 7.1 Kia Forte 8614 5.9 Hyundai Veloster 858 4.6 Kia K5/Optima 8006 6.7
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Los Angeles Auto Outlook is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive market research firm. Opinions in Los Angeles Auto Outlook are solely those of Auto Outlook, Inc., and are not necessarily shared by GLANCDA. Click on image to see latest LA Auto Outlook 2021 DEALER MEMBERS Antelope Valley Chevrolet Acura of Glendale
California Auto Outlook Comprehensive information on the California vehicle market Volume 17, Number 4 Released September 2021 Covering Third Quarter 2021 . California Annual New Light Vehicle Registrations - 2008 thru 2022 ANNUAL TRENDS *2021 and 2022 forecasts by Auto Outlook. 1.45 1.04 1.17 1.29 1.62 1.80 1.93 2.16 2.21 2.20 2.15 2.09 1.64 .
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